Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Mith, are you thinking of something like...

If Nerwen dreamed...

-Form a wolf, than dead give their bonus vote to me

-Eomer a wolf, give the bonus vote to sally

The one thing is we don't have enough current trusted innocents to cover the living unknown players.

This is an excellent idea (kudos to Mith).

However, not sure I'm following through. I always thought Nerwen dreamed of me, Shasta and Eomer as well - why would she otherwise have told the village not to vote any of us? Just because she was personally leaning towards considering us innocent? Wouldn't that have been a rather reckless move from a seer? Given that she didn't say "I would prefer not lynching x, y or z" but rather "trust me, let's not lynch these folks toDay" (not a direct quote but you get the drift).

I want to check Nerwen's posts and do a little maths anyway. I have a feeling something doesn't add up, and I'm most baffled about her telling the ranger not to protect herself and not explicitly saying she was the seer if she was so certain she's going to die anyway. (I mean, it was a brilliant move not to say it in the beginning, but not saying it late-ish yesterDay makes me scratch my head a little.)

And I'm not saying Nerwen wasn't the seer. I still believe she was. There's just something weird going on. Also, by checking again whose roles she cleared or indicated and how many dreams she'd have had maybe we can achieve a mutual agreement whether she dreamed of me, Eomer and Shasta or not.

Lastly but not least, I'm still a tiny bit unsure about Boro. What he's doing would be a bold but pretty good move from a wolf. I'm definitely not suggesting lynching him anytime soon, but I'm not sure we should trust him 100%.

I am sorry this game is making me paranoid, but to be honest I'm mostly sorry for myself.

[Mithalwen]

Lommy, don't quite get you... that is Boro's variant not mine.. I was thinking of the 4/5 including me listed by Eomer...

However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong?

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen straightforwardly said innocent
[the phantom]
[Firefoot]

Nerwen said don't vote
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

Nerwen said guilty
[Mac]
[Lottie]

Otherwise notable
Nerwen was very quick to believe Boro - another seer dream? My memory is a little fuzzy, but she may have said the same about Sally.

Including Boro or Sally would add up to 8 seer dreams, the correct amount for 4 nights. If Nerwen had dreamed of someone else (probably a dead person), I don't see why she wouldn't have mentioned it.

I'm still going to read her posts, but this is a good starting point.

This would also mean our remaining wolves are among

Morm
Form
Kath
Mith
McCaber

possibly but probably not Boro

(not Sally if we take her reveal at face value, which I still would)

Personally the ones I'm urgently worried about are Morm, Form and Kath.

[Thinlómien]

Mith, I just meant that it's a good idea to try to find out dead Nerwen's dreams like you suggested. Okay, it may be kind of obvious but it didn't occur to me. I wouldn't follow Boro's concrete suggestion. As far as I can see, we should set up you, Kath, morm, Form and possibly Boro himself as the dream options. We are exactly 10 now, so setting up a system to figure out any of the five seer dream options would mean using all the ten of us, including the unknown, as empowering options. Also I'm not sure if we shouldn't add an option for "hey living you completely misinterpreted Nerwen's posts, halt!"

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

[. Also I'm not sure if we shouldn't add an option for "hey living you completely misinterpreted Nerwen's posts, halt!"

OK that was what I meant by the pig's ear option (as in the British colloquial expression "you've made a pig's ear of that" meaning messed it up. However that was when I was working on the basis that Mc Caber was regarded as innocent.

[Thinlómien]

[blatantly clipped seer dream hunt]


Day1

Absolutely no indication of who she dreamed. Only a couple of posts, discussing rules and strategies. No suspicions or trusted people named.

Conclusion: Nerwen decided to lay low for Day1.


Day2

Originally Posted by Nerwen, first post, directly referring to the Night kills

I'll look Rune's posts over. (Not phantom's. I mean, come on!)

In other news, I think the narration indicates both Lovers are still alive.

You could read this as indication she dreamed of tp on Night2 when he died and that's why she's not going over his posts.

Mild suspicion of Rikae, no clear opinion on dead Rune. Finds Macalaure fishy. Considers morm's behaviour "eyebrow-raising". Jokingly tells Shasta not to leave her, which might or might not be a clue to his innocence. Finds the first Agan-wagon suspicious and doesn't want to indicate Agan is guilty. Wonders if morm and Mac were interacting wolf-on-wolf. Inclined to think tp was an ordo. Confused about Form. Doesn't think Lommy-Agan was wolf-on-wolf. More suspicion of Mac and votes him. Not "entirely easy" on Firefoot and morm.

Conclusion: dreams this far the phantom and Mac, I'm pretty sure about that. Apart from that: Shasta? Agan? Myself? Looks like up next: Firefoot? Maybe myself? I'm really baffled btw that she never checked morm.


Day3

*the day she started talking about her special role*

Assumes Agan was the hunter. Notes Eomer's cryptic statements.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this.

Also she doesn't think a wolf would have revealed as a lover. I'm getting the vibe she didn't dream of Sally.

Says the dead should check Greenie. Wants opinions on Nilp. Keeps assuming Legate was innocent (possibly as a ruse to hide her own seerdom). Asks opinions about Lottie. Also asks about Eomer and Firefoot. Lommy and Boro are among those she asks opinions from. Also asks thoughts about Boro and Mac. Mildly agrees with theories advocating morm and Agan's innocence. Names Mac and Lottie as wolves.

Conclusion: dreamed this far: the phantom, Mac and Lottie. Possible: Eomer, Firefoot, Boro, Shasta, Lommy, Agan.


Day 4

Not knowledgeable about Lalaith.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Pretty sure Firefoot was innocent, though- can't hurt to let you know that.

That's a dream right there, probably from the Night before.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Boro, I had actually thought you might be the secret role for some time, and I don't doubt your reveal, and that you are not on the side of the wolves. I hope you'll understand, though, if I point out that we can't really be sure you're on the side of the village. Just something everyone needs to bear in mind.

Iiiinteresting. Had she dreamed of him, she'd have received a message saying "PREDATOR" or "PREY", right? So did she dream of him and get a PM saying something that's not written in the rules? Does that mean we should be worried about Boro's allegiance? Or is she just saying this because she just thought (no seer dreams involved) he was the special role?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway, from what I can work out, we should be looking for the remaining wolves amongst the following people:

Formendacil
McCaber
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Mithalwen
Kath

This is assuming Boro and Sally are telling the truth, of course, but there's good reason to think so.

Indication she has cleared me, Eomer and Shasta. Indication she has a reason to trust Boro and Sally??

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Of course. They're cute. Lommy is a dear little penguin, Eomer is a fluffy-widdle puppy warg, and sure you don't expect me to lynch my king?
I would have left Nilp off, too, save for his sorely-deluded views on koalas.

...Er, I mean, no, I can't tell you. The riddle-message I was sent indicates a certain course of action, but that's as much as I say just now.

This should be ample proof she dreamed of me, Eomer and Shasta. Really curious about Nilp.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Did I mention it looks as though tp was indeed innocent?

Her making a single post only saying this (combined with what she said about Firefoot earlier) makes me think she would have told us had she dreamed of more dead innocents. I mean, why only tell us about the phantom and Firefoot but not others?

Side note:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now I may have some more to add later. For now, though, in case I can't get online again, I'll just say that the Ranger had better not waste a protection on me. Among other things I don't think I'll be getting any more pms anyway and we've got (effectively) a whole bunch of known innocents now.

This still baffles me. Did Kuru decide to stop giving her dreams because she'd have cleared the wolves too quickly for the game to stay balanced and tell her but not us? Or what? Also "whole bunch of known innocents" again points at me, Eomer and Shasta, not only Boro and Sally. In fact anyone ignoring the proof for me, Shasta and Eomer's innocence looks mighty fishy to me (looking at morm atm). Nerwen is making it very clear.

Another side note:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

One thing I'd like to suggest is that toMorrow we try to set up a way of asking about Living players? What do you think?

That's a massive hint hint that we should try to ask about her dreams. I'm not sure why she's still so cryptic though...

Votes Nilp and says it's him "regardless".

Conclusion: Dreamed the phantom, Firefoot, Lottie, Mac, Lommy, Eomer and Nilp. Last dream either Boro or Agan. I really wish I knew...


edit: xed with a bunch

[Thinlómien]

Nights 1 and 2
the phantom
Mac
Shasta?
rather Agan than Lommy but maybe one of them? or even Boro without mentioning it??

Night 3
Lottie
Boro? Lommy?

Night4
pretty sure it was Firefoot and Eomer

Honestly, the most logical explanation to me would be that she dreamed innocent the phantom, Shasta, Lommy, Eomer and Firefoot, and guilty Lottie and Mac. The eighth dream? Guess what, Agan actually makes more sense to me than Boro, just because of the timing. Of course, if she received a confusing message about Boro's role, she might have just kept quiet, which would be enough to muddle up my maths.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nerwen said don't vote
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

.

Here's the problem with that and something I keep coming back to, she said don't vote for them today but never did she indicate innocence. I think we are doing a great disservice by not looking at them. Shasta and Eomer have been a particular concern of mine on those list of 3 so I'm not willing to give them a pass which seems others are.

[mormegil]

Is this what you are thinking:

If:
morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy
Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith
Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta
McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro
No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally

That spreads it out and I'm willing to give Boro the single vote as well as it's known that he's at least not a wolf though his motivations are unclear.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Is this what you are thinking:

If:
morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy
Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith
Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta
McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro
No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally

That spreads it out and I'm willing to give Boro the single vote as well as it's known that he's at least not a wolf though his motivations are unclear.

Not really, we need to be able to figure out if someone is innocent as well.

Rather:

If morm is innocent, give an extra vote to morm
If morm is guilty, give an extra vote to Sally
If Form is innocent, give an extra vote to Form
If Form is guilty, give an extra vote to Lommy
If Kath is innocent, give an extra vote to Kath
If Kath is guilty, give an extra vote to Eomer
If Mith is innocent, give an extra vote to Mith
If Mith is guilty, give an extra vote to Shasta
If McCaber is innocent, don't give an extra vote
If McCaber is guilty, give an extra vote to Boro
If the village is screwing up or there's something else alarming such as Boro being a wolf (we can clarify this the next Day if needs be), give an extra vote to McCaber


Also, Kuru the God, can you tell us:

What happens if the dead reach a tie when voting for whom to empower?
If the dead abstain from voting, will we be told?

[Thinlómien]

PS. I know my voting scheme is not perfect, but I can't think of a better one. We give the dead a lot of power to randomly affect the lynch, but personally I don't mind as we're lynching one of the great unknowns - Form, morm, Mith, Kath or McCaber - anyway (or??) and at this point I don't really care whom because I don't have very much idea who the remaining wolves are. Mean but pragmatic.

[Thinlómien]

Also just saying that the panic button can't be not empowering anyone because that's an option one wolf in the dead thread (for example Lottie who has nothing to lose anymore) can mess up.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Is this what you are thinking:

If:
morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy
Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith
Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta
McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro
No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally

That spreads it out and I'm willing to give Boro the single vote as well as it's known that he's at least not a wolf though his motivations are unclear.

Yes that would do nicely. Save of course that until we actually vote we don't know how the double vote will affect the lynch. Innocents may be innocence doesn't equal infallible judgement. But I suppose we just have to take our chances

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Yes that would do nicely. Save of course that until we actually vote we don't know how the double vote will affect the lynch. Innocents may be innocence doesn't equal infallible judgement. But I suppose we just have to take our chances

This is exactly why I'm trying to avoid having a 1:1 assignment that Lommy has. The impact on the vote today could be harmful. Whereas we help mitigate that risk by giving the dead some options.

sorry about today, I'm writing hurried posts between meetings.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Is this what you are thinking:

If:
morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy
Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith
Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta
McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro
No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally

That spreads it out and I'm willing to give Boro the single vote as well as it's known that he's at least not a wolf though his motivations are unclear.

Okay let's go with this scheme. It's not the best but it's widely agreed on.

ToMorrow, let's do the self-vote thing. If you were not cleared by Nerwen, you are expected to vote as early as possible. Don't worry, we others will definitely lynch anyone who votes for anyone else except themself.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by morm

She implied it and I believe her. However, she only indicated dead people were wolves or innocent. She never definitively stated that any on that list were innocent. I'm encouraging skepticism that everyone on the list is a known innocent. She never came out and said it, why? She knew that she was likely going to get killed at night, it's frustrating that she didn't reveal everything she knows, so we've spent the whole day arguing about that and about trying to come up with some way for the dead to communicate with us

If she didn't dream of me, Shasta and Eomer, pray tell me, who did she dream of? Why would she have intentionally withheld important information from us while implying the innocence of people whose roles she didn't know??

Definitely not supporting making a tie toDay. That will just make a mess with all the proposed voting schemes going around too. Let's just lynch one of the unknowns. ToMorrow we can do the genious self-vote scheme.

Originally Posted by Mith

I now realise that Lommie made an unilateral declaration and tha she didn't care about lynching an inniocent. rather cavalier attitude and not very fair. Waters muddied badly...... very frustrating

That's not what I meant. I said I didn't care which of you unknowns we lynch because I didn't have a strong opinion about which one of you is guilty, so every option seemd roughly as good to me.

However, currently I would say the unknowns are from the most to least suspicious:

morm
Form
Kath
Mith
McCaber

Sally I trust. Boro I'm still not 100% certain of, but it's hardly the issue for toDay, probably not even toMorrow.

Also I need to vote soon and I'll probably go for morm.

I think toDay everyone should

1) vote for whoever they think is a wolf out of Nerwen's suggested lynch candidates

2) say yay or nay for the self-vote scheme toMorrow

before they go to sleep.