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#1 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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(hi I'm here)
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However, not sure I'm following through. I always thought Nerwen dreamed of me, Shasta and Eomer as well - why would she otherwise have told the village not to vote any of us? Just because she was personally leaning towards considering us innocent? Wouldn't that have been a rather reckless move from a seer? Given that she didn't say "I would prefer not lynching x, y or z" but rather "trust me, let's not lynch these folks toDay" (not a direct quote but you get the drift). I want to check Nerwen's posts and do a little maths anyway. I have a feeling something doesn't add up, and I'm most baffled about her telling the ranger not to protect herself and not explicitly saying she was the seer if she was so certain she's going to die anyway. (I mean, it was a brilliant move not to say it in the beginning, but not saying it late-ish yesterDay makes me scratch my head a little.) And I'm not saying Nerwen wasn't the seer. I still believe she was. There's just something weird going on. Also, by checking again whose roles she cleared or indicated and how many dreams she'd have had maybe we can achieve a mutual agreement whether she dreamed of me, Eomer and Shasta or not. Lastly but not least, I'm still a tiny bit unsure about Boro. What he's doing would be a bold but pretty good move from a wolf. I'm definitely not suggesting lynching him anytime soon, but I'm not sure we should trust him 100%. I am sorry this game is making me paranoid, but to be honest I'm mostly sorry for myself.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#2 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
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Lommy, don't quite get you... that is Boro's variant not mine.. I was thinking of the 4/5 including me listed by Eomer...
However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong?
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#3 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Nerwen straightforwardly said innocent
[the phantom] [Firefoot] Nerwen said don't vote Lommy Eomer Shasta Nerwen said guilty [Mac] [Lottie] Otherwise notable Nerwen was very quick to believe Boro - another seer dream? My memory is a little fuzzy, but she may have said the same about Sally. Including Boro or Sally would add up to 8 seer dreams, the correct amount for 4 nights. If Nerwen had dreamed of someone else (probably a dead person), I don't see why she wouldn't have mentioned it. I'm still going to read her posts, but this is a good starting point. This would also mean our remaining wolves are among Morm Form Kath Mith McCaber possibly but probably not Boro (not Sally if we take her reveal at face value, which I still would) Personally the ones I'm urgently worried about are Morm, Form and Kath.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#4 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Mith, I just meant that it's a good idea to try to find out dead Nerwen's dreams like you suggested. Okay, it may be kind of obvious but it didn't occur to me. I wouldn't follow Boro's concrete suggestion. As far as I can see, we should set up you, Kath, morm, Form and possibly Boro himself as the dream options. We are exactly 10 now, so setting up a system to figure out any of the five seer dream options would mean using all the ten of us, including the unknown, as empowering options. Also I'm not sure if we shouldn't add an option for "hey living you completely misinterpreted Nerwen's posts, halt!"
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#5 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
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OK that was what I meant by the pig's ear option (as in the British colloquial expression "you've made a pig's ear of that" meaning messed it up. However that was when I was working on the basis that Mc Caber was regarded as innocent.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#6 | ||||||||||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Nerwalysis of sorts
[blatantly clipped seer dream hunt]
Day1 Absolutely no indication of who she dreamed. Only a couple of posts, discussing rules and strategies. No suspicions or trusted people named. Conclusion: Nerwen decided to lay low for Day1. Day2 Quote:
Mild suspicion of Rikae, no clear opinion on dead Rune. Finds Macalaure fishy. Considers morm's behaviour "eyebrow-raising". Jokingly tells Shasta not to leave her, which might or might not be a clue to his innocence. Finds the first Agan-wagon suspicious and doesn't want to indicate Agan is guilty. Wonders if morm and Mac were interacting wolf-on-wolf. Inclined to think tp was an ordo. Confused about Form. Doesn't think Lommy-Agan was wolf-on-wolf. More suspicion of Mac and votes him. Not "entirely easy" on Firefoot and morm. Conclusion: dreams this far the phantom and Mac, I'm pretty sure about that. Apart from that: Shasta? Agan? Myself? Looks like up next: Firefoot? Maybe myself? I'm really baffled btw that she never checked morm. Day3 *the day she started talking about her special role* Assumes Agan was the hunter. Notes Eomer's cryptic statements. Quote:
Says the dead should check Greenie. Wants opinions on Nilp. Keeps assuming Legate was innocent (possibly as a ruse to hide her own seerdom). Asks opinions about Lottie. Also asks about Eomer and Firefoot. Lommy and Boro are among those she asks opinions from. Also asks thoughts about Boro and Mac. Mildly agrees with theories advocating morm and Agan's innocence. Names Mac and Lottie as wolves. Conclusion: dreamed this far: the phantom, Mac and Lottie. Possible: Eomer, Firefoot, Boro, Shasta, Lommy, Agan. Day 4 Not knowledgeable about Lalaith. Quote:
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Another side note: Quote:
Votes Nilp and says it's him "regardless". Conclusion: Dreamed the phantom, Firefoot, Lottie, Mac, Lommy, Eomer and Nilp. Last dream either Boro or Agan. I really wish I knew... edit: xed with a bunch
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#7 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Nerwen dream reconstruction
Nights 1 and 2
the phantom Mac Shasta? rather Agan than Lommy but maybe one of them? or even Boro without mentioning it?? Night 3 Lottie Boro? Lommy? Night4 pretty sure it was Firefoot and Eomer Honestly, the most logical explanation to me would be that she dreamed innocent the phantom, Shasta, Lommy, Eomer and Firefoot, and guilty Lottie and Mac. The eighth dream? Guess what, Agan actually makes more sense to me than Boro, just because of the timing. Of course, if she received a confusing message about Boro's role, she might have just kept quiet, which would be enough to muddle up my maths.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
Last edited by Thinlómien; 06-10-2015 at 11:10 AM. Reason: is -> if (typo) |
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#8 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Here's the problem with that and something I keep coming back to, she said don't vote for them today but never did she indicate innocence. I think we are doing a great disservice by not looking at them. Shasta and Eomer have been a particular concern of mine on those list of 3 so I'm not willing to give them a pass which seems others are.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#9 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Is this what you are thinking:
If: morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally That spreads it out and I'm willing to give Boro the single vote as well as it's known that he's at least not a wolf though his motivations are unclear.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#10 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quote:
Rather: If morm is innocent, give an extra vote to morm If morm is guilty, give an extra vote to Sally If Form is innocent, give an extra vote to Form If Form is guilty, give an extra vote to Lommy If Kath is innocent, give an extra vote to Kath If Kath is guilty, give an extra vote to Eomer If Mith is innocent, give an extra vote to Mith If Mith is guilty, give an extra vote to Shasta If McCaber is innocent, don't give an extra vote If McCaber is guilty, give an extra vote to Boro If the village is screwing up or there's something else alarming such as Boro being a wolf (we can clarify this the next Day if needs be), give an extra vote to McCaber Also, Kuru the God, can you tell us: What happens if the dead reach a tie when voting for whom to empower? If the dead abstain from voting, will we be told?
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#11 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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PS. I know my voting scheme is not perfect, but I can't think of a better one. We give the dead a lot of power to randomly affect the lynch, but personally I don't mind as we're lynching one of the great unknowns - Form, morm, Mith, Kath or McCaber - anyway (or??) and at this point I don't really care whom because I don't have very much idea who the remaining wolves are. Mean but pragmatic.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#12 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Also just saying that the panic button can't be not empowering anyone because that's an option one wolf in the dead thread (for example Lottie who has nothing to lose anymore) can mess up.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#13 | |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
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Quote:
__________________
“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#14 | |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Quote:
sorry about today, I'm writing hurried posts between meetings. ![]()
__________________
“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#15 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quote:
ToMorrow, let's do the self-vote thing. If you were not cleared by Nerwen, you are expected to vote as early as possible. Don't worry, we others will definitely lynch anyone who votes for anyone else except themself.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#16 | ||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quote:
Definitely not supporting making a tie toDay. That will just make a mess with all the proposed voting schemes going around too. Let's just lynch one of the unknowns. ToMorrow we can do the genious self-vote scheme. Quote:
However, currently I would say the unknowns are from the most to least suspicious: morm Form Kath Mith McCaber Sally I trust. Boro I'm still not 100% certain of, but it's hardly the issue for toDay, probably not even toMorrow. Also I need to vote soon and I'll probably go for morm. I think toDay everyone should 1) vote for whoever they think is a wolf out of Nerwen's suggested lynch candidates 2) say yay or nay for the self-vote scheme toMorrow before they go to sleep.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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