Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[the phantom]

I'm with you so far, Rikae. So then what on earth was Sally up to if Lottie-Nerwen are together?

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm thinking about being productive

Your mom is thinking about being productive.

Originally Posted by Mac

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

Well then. I will agree to it as an experiment if you agree to include an explanation(s) of Nerwen's PM dream as part of the package.

[the phantom]

Also, has it already been noted that Lottie's plea to her pack and the village to kill Firefoot may have been cover for someone in her own pack? Telling her own pack (Firefoot) obviously wouldn't make her kill herself, and if the village tries it FF can just tell them not to be silly and do what Lottie wanted them to do, since obviously Lottie can't be trusted. Just saying.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

In complete seriousness, and with the expectation of receiving an honest result, all games aside-

Lottie, did you truly kill Legate?

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Well, but I can be lazy and make you lot work harder by analyzing all possible combinations. I can still get the same amount of information about the other pack without potentially exposing my own packmates. If you guys stumble upon something, I will confirm whether or not it was the correct scenario and whether or not you've actually caught a wolf. Have fun.

Originally Posted by the phantom

So here we have a Wolf being quite truthful (probably) about her own Wolf kill, as often happens.

Hilariously, I wasn't at all truthful about my own kill. I will offer you two scenarios, and I do solemnly swear that one of them is true.

1. My pack did not kill Rune. I simply found morm's reaction to Sally's suggestion suspicious.

2. My pack did kill Rune, but not primarily because we thought he was a wolf. We did think he might have been Gifted.

Like I said, one of these two scenarios is the truth. You may choose which you think is more likely.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oooh! I know! Maybe the special role can commit suicide and be resurrected, but do nothing else.

And maybe that is me.

And maybe Nerwen & Lottie really are the lovers and it was all a scheme to get Lottie lynched. And now my ability is redundant.

Yup.

Seriously? But we worked so hard.

[the phantom]

Ooo, I like Wolves that are willing to play ball. We'll have to think about this...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I figure I'd go with it. I'd of course want the Lottie lynch to take place, but I'd tease Lottie as if I was in the competing pack. Maybe tell her Mac wasn't in my pack, and say that even without me we were going to win etc. Basically I'd try to tempt her remaining packmate(s) into Night killing me.

Not quite following you here, unless you're talking about an ordo sacrifice.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Also, Lottie should definitely adopt Nog as one of her packmates in order to throw us off by making us think she only has one partner left. If you do it, dearie, I promise I'll pretend to believe it just to annoy Nog.

Wouldn't it be cute if Lottie and phantom were actually packmates?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, if Lottie didn't lie, we at least know who's responsible for the dead Europeans.

*gasp*

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yeah, Lottie, *eat* that!

Lommy posted in the living thread about having to watch me crack up laughing at this thread. This was one of those moments.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now, kitchen calls!

Ooh what did you cook?

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.

I think this is a very good plan, especially given it's easier for us to lead than to follow. Timezone-wise, I mean. I hope Legate turns out innocent too because what's better than dead Europeans controlling this thread?

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

Sadly, your reaction to Nerwen's reveal wasn't as convincing as to Rikae's reveal. Anyway - what do you think she was up to?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

Not quite following you here, unless you're talking about an ordo sacrifice.

Exactly. But how likely is it that other Ordos would do what I would do? (Basically, does my reaction matter at all in determining whether Ff reacted properly?).

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

Top level argumentation from the 'Downs Werewolf

That is a good argument for Lommy in this case. If player X is against killing player Y, but then player Y is Night killed, it is less likely that player X was a part of it (packmates would've had to go strictly against that player). Yes, that assumes player X is telling the truth, but it certainly seemed that she was.

[the phantom]

Ah, you know, I do recall one of your theories, Mac.
(goes to get it)

Originally Posted by Mac

So the seer is allowed, maybe once in the game, to send two of their dreams to one person of their choice. They send the identities of two wolves they've dreamed of, but they chose poorly, and sent it to evil Nerwen. Nerwen identifies one wolf from the other pack (Lottie) and feeds her to the mob. The other wolf is one of her own, and she switches him/her, instead naming me, who she and others have been suspecting all along.

But this doesn't make sense either. The seer must've dreamed of some innocent, some of which should still be alive. They would've chosen one of them, and not taken a risk.

Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams (and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie). Thus Nerwolf could feed the village Lottie and pretend you were guilty and never be caught (because the dream went to her rather than the Seer.

How about that as an explanation?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Exactly. But how likely is it that other Ordos would do what I would do? (Basically, does my reaction matter at all in determining whether Ff reacted properly?).

I would probably have reacted similarly to Firefoot, but then, I have a tendency - wolf or innocent - to defend myself vocally against poor suspicions (you could argue all suspicion seems groundless to me though ). And in this case, Firefoot had indeed voted for Mac at a critical-ish moment.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway.

Aw sorry Mac I went back and saw the post phantom just quoted here - I'd forgotten about it because that's pretty much when friends used strong language to tell me to stop stalking the game on my phone.

I want to say I'm not convinced of your guilt. At the moment it seems more convenient to assume Nerwen was telling the truth, but I want you to know I'll listen to whatever you have to say. I kind of wish we'd checked you toNIGHT just to be on the safe side about this, but it is true that Legate has more leads.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A late-night salad (lettuce, new cucumbers and baby-tomatoes) of smoked whitefish (cisco) and new potatoes with eggs and dill-oil.

Sounds lovely! I had a nicoise salad and actually now that I started talking about it, I think I'm going to get another plate.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams (and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie). Thus Nerwolf could feed the village Lottie and pretend you were guilty and never be caught (because the dream went to her rather than the Seer.

How about that as an explanation?

This occurred to me earlier.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

what's better than dead Europeans controlling this thread?

Julius Caesar, Napoleon and a few others would want a word with you.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It was decent for an early summer night. Missed the cool Riesling though.

I think we all miss Mac and Rikae's Riesling even more...

[Macalaure]

Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams

Possible, I suppose. It doesn't make a whole lot of difference whether it was the most recent dreams or the seer's "best of", though.

(and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie)

Not Lottie and me, Lottie and one of her own packmates. She couldn't be truthful about the second dream, so she substituted me. I know how full of holes this theory is as well.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ooh what did you cook?

A late-night salad (lettuce, new cucumbers and baby-tomatoes) of smoked whitefish (cisco) and new potatoes with eggs and dill-oil.

It was decent for an early summer night. Missed the cool Riesling though.

[Aganzir]

I took the phantom's list from a few days back and expanded it based on DAY 2 voting. DAY 3 votes don't tell us much - looking at people's suspicions might, but I don't have the time for it now.

• Firefoot/Mac - dangerously placed vote, unless she'd decided to bus Mac.
• Kath/Form - low-risk vote on DAY 1 but just not worth risking it.
• morm/Lottie - Lottie voted morm early on DAY 2.
• morm/Mac - a DAY 1 vote would be totally useless, voted Mac again DAY 2.
• Nerwen/Mac - early DAY 2 vote, likely to be followed.
• Shasta/Lottie - throwaway vote very late on DAY 2, but he was the first person to cast a vote for her.

DEAD:

Nog/Boro
Nog/phantom
Nog/Lottie
Nog/Eomer
Nog/Shasta

Rikae/Lommy

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I took the phantom's list from a few days back and expanded it based on DAY 2 voting. DAY 3 votes don't tell us much - looking at people's suspicions might, but I don't have the time for it now.

• Firefoot/Mac - dangerously placed vote, unless she'd decided to bus Mac.
• Kath/Form - low-risk vote on DAY 1 but just not worth risking it.
• morm/Lottie - Lottie voted morm early on DAY 2.
• morm/Mac - a DAY 1 vote would be totally useless, voted Mac again DAY 2.
• Nerwen/Mac - early DAY 2 vote, likely to be followed.
• Shasta/Lottie - throwaway vote very late on DAY 2, but he was the first person to cast a vote for her.

DEAD:

Nog/Boro
Nog/phantom
Nog/Lottie
Nog/Eomer
Nog/Shasta

Rikae/Lommy

I'll have to leave very soon so don't have time to look at this further. Would like to, though.

Could still perhaps update it a little, based on what we know.

• Kath/Form - low-risk vote on DAY 1 but just not worth risking it.
• Kath/Mith - would Mith keep bringing up a fellow's absence. (I'm also noting morm is talking about it.)
• morm/Lottie - Lottie voted morm early on DAY 2.
• morm/Mac - a DAY 1 vote would be totally useless, voted Mac again DAY 2.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Some things I noticed:

• Both Lottiepack and Macpack had a reason to kill phantom. Neither had a more likely reason to kill Rune than the other.
• I think it's certainly interesting that everybody who's been night killed so far (except Rune) has suspected both Lottie and Firefoot.
• On NIGHT 3, both Rikae and Legate had suspected Mac before but felt better about him later.
• It almost feels like both wolf packs wanted to frame Greenie.
• Everybody who died in the latter set found morm more or less innocent.
• Firefoot and Mac as fellows doesn't make sense but Firefoot and Lottie might. Will check later.

Anything else?

Pretty good work there, Agan. For that matter, obviously if it comes to reasons for killing people, there might have been other reasons than just because they suspected someone; they might have just seemed Seerish (based on behavior, based on suspecting someone the Wolf-pack thought was a Wolf from another pack etc.). But generally, yeah.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If he's a Wolf he's nicely mimicking the innocent sound. We'll know for certain soon enough.

Thanks, you will. But I am innocent anyway.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

I believe you are innocent! Now, tell me?

Originally Posted by the phantom

Your mom is thinking about being productive.

Now now, guys... behave

Originally Posted by the phantom

Also, has it already been noted that Lottie's plea to her pack and the village to kill Firefoot may have been cover for someone in her own pack? Telling her own pack (Firefoot) obviously wouldn't make her kill herself, and if the village tries it FF can just tell them not to be silly and do what Lottie wanted them to do, since obviously Lottie can't be trusted. Just saying.

Yes, that was one of the possibilities that crossed my mind: but it would still expose Firefoot, and since people know there are two packs, it would be dangerous. Of course, unless Lottie counted on the villagers not lynching FF because they would think "let's not waste our lynch on FF, the other pack will get her" and the Wolves from the other pack thinking "haha, Lottie probably framed an innocent, let's leave her around for the village to lynch."

Personally I hope it is not the case, although anything is of course possible. Depends also on the village, and on the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Hilariously, I wasn't at all truthful about my own kill. I will offer you two scenarios, and I do solemnly swear that one of them is true.

1. My pack did not kill Rune. I simply found morm's reaction to Sally's suggestion suspicious.

2. My pack did kill Rune, but not primarily because we thought he was a wolf. We did think he might have been Gifted.

Like I said, one of these two scenarios is the truth. You may choose which you think is more likely.

Just reminds me of those old logical games. What if you put it that way for us, for instance, so that we could decipher it? You know, such as: "I will tell you three statements, one contains two truths, one two falsehoods, and one contains one truth and one falsehood. 1. I did not kill Rune. I killed Legate. 2. The other pack killed Legate. I killed Rikae. 3. I did not kill Rikae. I killed Rune."

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well then. I will agree to it as an experiment if you agree to include an explanation(s) of Nerwen's PM dream as part of the package.

Scroll up then. I thought about some possibilities up there. None of them seem likely, but one of them is probably true. (Unless something completely different is going on.) Obviously I can't explain them. I don't know what Kuru is up to with his secret rules either.