Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Sorry for the delay. I got hugely distracted (and also sleepy).

Runesky



Speaking here in (albeit mild) support of tying the lynch vote, which I still find a suspicious stance to take (more on why in a moment). He is also in favor of empowering the dead, which strikes me as neither innocent nor guilty.



Bolding mine. Especially given his clarification here, I find his support of the no-lynch idea rather suspicious. Rather than take the chance of getting a baddie, he prefers we kill no one until the wolves strike in the Night. Better to kill no one at all than to have the possibility of a wolf being killed. (I'm stretching slightly, but note that he never mentions we could lynch an innocent by mistake. He only mentioned baddies.)



"I'm going to vote Form, but I don't want him to die." In fairness, no one wants to see anyone go on Day 1, but it is of course necessary. Still, stating it in that way doesn't sit right with me. I have a couple of ideas on why this exchange may have occurred, but with so little information, it's impossible to get a better feel for the situation.

Conclusion: Where wolf? (I'm leaning toward thinking he was sniped by one of the wolf packs for being a potential rival.)


x'd since my last

A very odd conclusion. I would imagine that the wolves would be much more concerned about getting the Seer early on as that is their greatest threat, it's what I would do. You are trying to make a case against a dead man, why? If anything, I would imagine that the wolves thought Rune was the Seer and now a Sallywolf is attempting to have us think differently. Sorry for no bolding, I'm using my phone and it's past bedtime. Goodnight

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

Well, Number-cruncher, what do the odds say that none, one, or both victims were wolves?

You want the odds? You can't handle the odds!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by mormegil

A very odd conclusion. I would imagine that the wolves would be much more concerned about getting the Seer early on as that is their greatest threat, it's what I would do. You are trying to make a case against a dead man, why? If anything, I would imagine that the wolves thought Rune was the Seer and now a Sallywolf is attempting to have us think differently.

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?

Of course, he might have been killed for looking like the Seer, but then why would Sally try to cover it up? Looking at his posts, the only thing I could take from it is that he definitely had not dreamt a wolf yet, since he was so adamant that we would not be able to lynch a wolf that Day. Therefore, if Sally were a wolf, she would not gain anything from trying to cover up his potential Seer gift.

All this to say, I found this post by morm to be highly suspicious.

[Firefoot]

I wrote this prior to the Day starting, but I don't think the results of the Night change anything, so I'm just leaving it and going to bed...

Okay, I’m going to try and make some sense out of a lot of half-formed thoughts and erratic notes taken by hand while perusing the Day 1 conversation on my phone.

I spent a fair amount of time thinking about the proposal to tie the vote yesterDay – who was for it, who was against it, the reasons they gave – and why either a wolf or an innocent would be interested in tying or not tying the vote. So:

Why an innocent wouldn’t want to tie: 1) Get the dead thread up and going more quickly, since it’s likely to be dominated by innocents and is a key source of knowledge in the game; 2) No chance of killing a wolf and advancing the game.

Why an innocent would want to tie: 1) Zero risk of accidentally lynching a gifted; 2) Keep the population of the village up longer; 3) Gain more information from Night 2’s activities so that lynching can be a (slightly) more educated decision.

Why a wolf would not want to tie: 1) Extremely high odds of lynching an innocent (ordo or gifted), or a wolf from another pack – since they know exactly who they want alive and dead and can steer the vote.

Why a wolf would want to tie: 1) Hide in a systemic vote – no voting patterns to trace. (This seems a lot less compelling to me than the not wanting to tie – if I was a wolf, I’d rather just have more people die. I think.)

So, that being said, the people that stand out to me as most suspicious:

loslote: Starts rather ambiguous about the idea of a tie (post #22), then becomes adamant that it is a bad idea (#48, #54, #202). Also, concern about trusting the dead thread could be construed as suspicious (since it’s likely to be a majority of innocents with some knowledge, wolves wouldn’t want to leave anything up to them) (post #28, #54).

Macalaure: Also anti-tie, which is not instantly condemning. He spends a lot of time on statistics, which could be an innocent actually being helpful or a wolf trying to look helpful without actually contributing to the discussion of who’s who – no pointing fingers, but still substantial posting (though he does make a list of his suspicions (#131)). Seems easily swayed (#168, #188) – bandwagoning? Or just confused innocent. Then at the end he seems almost gleeful about Nogrod’s death, which sat poorly with me. [Overall, I’m not convincing myself here, but earlier when I was taking notes I was getting bad vibes from his posts… so really just not sure.]

McCaber: Mostly this quote: “Any lynch is still better than no lynch in my book, so out of those who I dislike Agan has the most realistic odds of not leaving a tie.” Sorry, but no. Maybe I’m misunderstanding his meaning, but this struck me really badly.

Meh. All of this seemed a lot more substantive in my head earlier. My intuition for wolves is also notoriously bad, but hopefully this is at least a little interesting or helpful.
-----
Addendum: I definitely think the vote yesterDay bears looking into - seems very bandwagon-y to me (both Nogrod's sudden downfall and the pile-up on Agan), but I haven't had time to look into it myself.

Also, wouldn't it be funny if all three of the people in the Dead Thread were wolves? Wishful thinking, I guess...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?

Of course, he might have been killed for looking like the Seer, but then why would Sally try to cover it up? Looking at his posts, the only thing I could take from it is that he definitely had not dreamt a wolf yet, since he was so adamant that we would not be able to lynch a wolf that Day. Therefore, if Sally were a wolf, she would not gain anything from trying to cover up his potential Seer gift.

All this to say, I found this post by morm to be highly suspicious.

I wouldn't put it so strongly as "highly suspicious", but eyebrow-raising, perhaps. (I mean, in *this* game, why *not* make a case against a dead man?) There was nothing in Rune's posting that would link him with morm, though. Have you seen something in morm's, or was that just a guess?

Edit:x'd with Greenie and my shining star.. Oh, darling, don't go! I miss you...

[Lalaith]

Here's something that's been bothering me since I read up on the events that occured yesterDay after I went to bed last night. (Awfully sorry about the failure to highlight, Kuru, won't happen again. )
Anyway, I was baffled by the lynching of Nogs as to me he seemed one of the most innocent players. So I had a close look at the events leading up to this lynching. At 1.07am (I'm going by my BST timings here) Nogs says he will vote for either Aganzir or Phantom, and makes a case against them both. At this point, there are no votes for him and just one for Agan. Legate votes for Greenie, Nogs votes for Agan and then a couple more votes keep Agan and Form in the lead.
At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

*actually thinking about it, there is also the scenario that everyone was wrong, or various scenarios where some people are half-right! This game is crazy...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Here's something that's been bothering me since I read up on the events that occured yesterDay after I went to bed last night. (Awfully sorry about the failure to highlight, Kuru, won't happen again. )
Anyway, I was baffled by the lynching of Nogs as to me he seemed one of the most innocent players. So I had a close look at the events leading up to this lynching. At 1.07am (I'm going by my BST timings here) Nogs says he will vote for either Aganzir or Phantom, and makes a case against them both. At this point, there are no votes for him and just one for Agan. Legate votes for Greenie, Nogs votes for Agan and then a couple more votes keep Agan and Form in the lead.
At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

*actually thinking about it, there is also the scenario that everyone was wrong, or various scenarios where some people are half-right! This game is crazy...

Yes, the Nog-waggon looks like a response to the Agan-waggon to me, too. And yet, I'm not sure that necessarily points to her being a wolf saved by her packmates; the Agan-waggon itself seems pretty dubious to me- very forced-looking "suspicions", so I could see honest players might react to *that*. While we're here, though, how do you know both scenarios weren't right?

Edit: x'd with Lottie and Agan.

[Thinlómien]

First off -

Rune and the phantom? Interesting. I have nothing much to add as of yet, and no idea what to make of the phantom's successful request to be killed. (Maybe the wolves thought he's the hunter and decided to take the risk now that it's statistically the lowest? But would the phantom as a hunter really do that on Day1? Or would the wolves think he would?)

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

Rune, then, was notably short-tempered yesterDay. I agree with Rikae that this could have been read as a sign of a nervous gifted, and indeed knowing Rune I think it's possible he was. Then again he is quite grumpy by nature and the overwhelming rules hardly seemed to make him happy.

About Nogrod - well, as I was going to bed yesterDay before the DL, I was starting to think him more and more suspicious, mostly because of his "let's lynch the phantom" meme but in retrospect I don't really know. Nogrod is quite a typical Day1 lynch and not because he'd be a wolf awfully often, so I can see the village reacting quite knee-jerkily to him again. I guess the bottom line is that a little rereading wouldn't hurt me.

Just have to add my voice to the choir of "I'd love to see the dead thread now" with Nog and the phantom arguing and/or coming up with a master plan and Rune's head exploding. *waves*

At work now, but once I can slack a little more I'll be back to comment posts from late yesterDay and early toDay...


edit: xed with Agan's latter post

[McCaber]

So do we want to try some measure of phantom's communication plan toDay, or hold off until they might know someone's role and try again toMorrow? The exact message might have to wait until we have some votes in our own thread for us to see what our potential options are.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by McCaber

So do we want to try some measure of phantom's communication plan toDay, or hold off until they might know someone's role and try again toMorrow? The exact message might have to wait until we have some votes in our own thread for us to see what our potential options are.

Nothing to communicate yet. They've gained quorum just toDAY (three Dead people) and will start scrying people only toNIGHT.

[A Little Green]

OK, Sally, morm and Lottie, possibly the most interesting thing to have happened toDay this far. Basically, Sally suspects Rune (R.I.P.) and concludes her analysis of him with a suggestion that he was killed as a potential member of a rival wolf pack. Morm thinks this is an odd conclusion and says it's more likely Rune was killed as a potential Seer, and suggests that Sally might be a wolf trying to distract us from this conclusion. Lottie thinks Sally's theory is not far-fetched and that morm's response is suspicious, and goes on to speculate that morm and Rune might be fellow wolves together with Formy or myself. That's about it, right?

First off, I agree with morm in that Sally's conclusion is odd. I'm not saying Rune can't be a wolf, of course he can, but he didn't, at least to me, seem any more suspicious than twenty-something other people. This is especially true with regard to the reasons why Sally found him suspicious: that he supported the no-lynch scheme (which is true for about half the village) and that he voted Form without wanting him to die (which is logical since he wanted a tie with no lynch, had to vote early and Form had volunteered). In fact, Sally's post seems like an odd mix of "this is why I suspect Rune" and "this is why he was Night-killed".

At the same time, Lottie is right in that a Sallywolf wouldn't have much to gain in trying to cover up Rune's potential Seerishness like morm suggested since it is rather obvious that if Rune was the Seer he hadn't dreamed a wolf yet. That said, Lottie's equation of "morm's argument doesn't make sense" and "morm is highly suspicious" is also rather odd.

My main qualm with Sally's theory is that I don't find her case against Rune particularly convincing, and I think it's unlikely the wolves spotted the same things she did, drew the same conclusions, and were convinced enough to use their kill on it. Unless, of course, Sally is a wolf and just now fell for the classic wolf mistake of explaining what really happened at Night.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

But it addresses the Night and stuff early toDay, so that it's neatly together.

So, basic ideas: the phantom would simply be killed because. just because. I mean, I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!! But, if tp is not a member of your pack, you probably consider him dangerous whichever the case. Imagine. If he is a Seer, you want him dead, if he is a Wolf of the opposite pack, you totally want him dead as well. And in fact, with the "kill me" encouragement, the WWs might have thought him a Hunter and wanted to get rid of him early on (especially if they felt safe from him??? Anyway, I think this is already a stretch, but simply put, there are like a million reasons to kill the Phantom).

Rune is of course more interesting question, I have also rearead his posts, I'll get to it in a sec.

But first - by the way. Let us bear one thing in mind. The pack that killed Rune might have contained the phantom (and vice versa. By the way what is it that makes it fairly automatic to assume Rune wasn't a Wolf? I mean, nobody much would think of it by default, right, whereas with tp it at least crosses people's minds?).

Speaking of that, given that there was the possibility that both packs might have targeted tp if he was innocent - I mean, really! Look at it, and he actually was targeted by one pack, and I think we are clear on that there are plenty of reasons to want to kill him, so the other pack might have considered it as well, and it simply didn't for some reason. - anyway, given that possibility, I would consider tp being part of one of the packs. At least it's an extra reason, even though of course different Wolves might think differently etc etc.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Rune didn't do much, but he was, well, tense, without much reason. Could be the wolves took that as a sign of giftedness. His vote was for Formendacil, but it doesn't look like the vote was because he dreamt of him, but just because he was there. He also suspected Greenie, but again, not in a way that looks seer-ish to me. If he was gifted, then he wasn't the seer, and obviously not the hunter either. Losing ranger or lovers this early would hurt us. They're not bringing anything of value back to us at this point.

Who knows. Regarding the Greenie thing, that actually interests me, since I am still fairly suspicious of her (also after seeing her post toDay, see below). If Greenie was a Wolf, and her pack thought Rune a Seer, I'd say it would be a good reason for killing: the Form vote from Rune might have been interpreted in any way, but the WWs could think that Rune is about to dream her, which would be a brilliant reason (stopping the Seer kind of unconspiciously before he can do the actual harm, also, because the theoretical suspicion would be fairly unclear, it would be a good kill as it wouldn't leave so good tracks pointing at Greenie). Lot of speculation to be sure, but working with all the possibilities and the little info we have.

Originally Posted by Mac

Form giving himself the third vote makes it very unlikely that he's gifted (I think I may say this much openly), but I also think it makes it unlikely for him to be a wolf. Very risky move there, and without any pressure.

Generally agreed. Makes sense.

Aganzir remains suspicious to me, which, before Nogrod started receiving votes, makes me wonder why none of her mates voted for Form. Maybe they already voted earlier, maybe they were waiting, or maybe she's not a wolf after all.

In any case, I think the early Nogrod voters are actually quite innocent-looking at the moment (yes, I know, wolves hunt wolves in this game). There were simply easier targets available to them at that point.

I'm grasping straws a little.

You are, here. One thing is also that I am not sure how much would WWs try to save a fellow by a bandwagon in this game in such a visible manner. The danger is you get spotted by both the village and the other pack. Of course they would probably try to save the comrades, but probably in as unconspicuous way as possible. The village is still big and they have to last long.

Same for painting the Nog votes as innocent - there are always easy targets. But, to be sure, there is something to what you are saying, there probably would be at least one baddie among the Nog voters - regardless of Nog's actual role and the role of the bandwagon. Just too good a bandwagon to pass, and I would even imagine a baddie somewhere among the earlier voters. I will want to take a look at the voters, actually, and try to think something about them.

Originally Posted by mormegil

A very odd conclusion. I would imagine that the wolves would be much more concerned about getting the Seer early on as that is their greatest threat, it's what I would do. You are trying to make a case against a dead man, why? If anything, I would imagine that the wolves thought Rune was the Seer and now a Sallywolf is attempting to have us think differently. Sorry for no bolding, I'm using my phone and it's past bedtime. Goodnight

Agreed with Morm here, sally's post did not really make much sense there. Not sure if I'd think of her being a WW immediately, but it is weird.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?

Although this is weirder, to be honest. I don't understand what would be "weirdly defensive" about morm's post. If you said "weirdly offensive" (towards sally), then perhaps. This looks defensive to me, to be honest - you being defensive of sally. Alarm flashes a bit.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Well, I suppose he did ask them to kill him. As for Runebug, I agree with Rikae, morm and Nerwen that the wolves might have had him down as a potential Seer with the way he seemed quite tense and the way he stressed that none of his suspicions was really a proper suspicion. Also, the exchange between Sally and morm (and others) looks very interesting, I'll get back to it in a moment. In any case, at least based on these two kills I'd say our two Wolfgangs (R.I.P. Nogrod) have very different strategies. The thing is, though, that even if they target the Seer, which they are likely to do, they won't know if they've caught him/her or not. Which means that they could spend the whole game targeting "potential Seers" (or, at least, until there's a reveal or something). Not sure how this is related to anything, but anyway.

Okay, here we get to the thing I mentioned above: this post again has horribly fishy tone. Especially the "by the way sally morm are weird, nudge nudge?" like these classic casual remarks Wolves do in order to nudge others to lynch people. In any case (to put it positively), it should be clear that at least one, and maybe neither of those isn't in a pack with Greenie if she is a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

Good points there, Agan also came back very humbly after yesterDay's end, which could also be that now she would like it to be swept under the rug now that she had managed to survive it. But with all that, I am not sure if a WolfAgan would act that way at all. Also what I said about bandwagoning, not sure if the WWs would be that obviously saving a mate. But yeah.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, the Nog-waggon looks like a response to the Agan-waggon to me, too. And yet, I'm not sure that necessarily points to her being a wolf saved by her packmates; the Agan-waggon itself seems pretty dubious to me- very forced-looking "suspicions", so I could see honest players might react to *that*. While we're here, though, how do you know both scenarios weren't right?

Actually it would be interesting to rather think of both wagons as some baddie-orchestrated nonsense, not necessarily to save anyone, but just to wreak havoc, too. But anyway, have to think about it more still.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

First off -

Rune and the phantom? Interesting. I have nothing much to add as of yet, and no idea what to make of the phantom's successful request to be killed. (Maybe the wolves thought he's the hunter and decided to take the risk now that it's statistically the lowest? But would the phantom as a hunter really do that on Day1? Or would the wolves think he would?)

Yep, the hunter thing - exactly what I thought as well. I really think it might be a plausible reason.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

That's what I thought yesterDay; that he is possibly an ordo. But then exactly the question is: if the WWs thought it as well, and knew about him sacrificing himself happily and so on, would they kill him? But maybe the added value of having a "cleaner thread" would have been better? But no, WWs could probably actually benefit from messier thread - in the beginning, that is; not later when everything you say will be brought against you and the more people there are, the more you say, by default, since you have to interact with more people (but also hide better in the crowd and do not have to interact with everyone, which is a great advantage). Hm, whatever, I think that depends a lot on what kind of Wolves we are talking about. Once we'd learn the identity of some WWs, we could speculate whether a pack containing this or that person would kill the phantom... but at that point, not sure if it will be relevant anymore (except if by that time we are still struggling with knowing the roles of all the people concerned).

Originally Posted by Lommy

About Nogrod - well, as I was going to bed yesterDay before the DL, I was starting to think him more and more suspicious, mostly because of his "let's lynch the phantom" meme but in retrospect I don't really know. Nogrod is quite a typical Day1 lynch and not because he'd be a wolf awfully often, so I can see the village reacting quite knee-jerkily to him again. I guess the bottom line is that a little rereading wouldn't hurt me.

I actually also started thinking Nog was pressing the phantom kill a bit too much. But hard to say. Well he's dead now, we should probably shift focus again mainly on the living, until we have a more solid info about what is happening.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy and all

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

What I got is she used the word "kill" instead of "lynch," and morm half-jokingly asked her if that was a Freudian slip, because a wolf would likely see the "lynch" from the POV as "killing."

Originally Posted by Eomer, EDIT: NOT EOMER BUT BORO

I didn't read Agan's response carefully enough, but Lommy interpreted her reaction to it as even worse than an innocent Freudian slip.

Okay, for the last time, let's recapitulate since people seem to be confused by this and think it was "out of proportion" (really? it was Day1? of course all suspicion is "out of proportion"!):

1. Agan uses the village "killing" all Europeans as an example of something.
2. Morm makes fun of her for suggesting we lynch the Europeans (herself thus included).
3. Agan replies to morm by making a joke that she used the word "kill" (instead of "lynch") because she's a wolf and it was a Freudian slip.
4. I find it fishy that Agan interpreted morm's comment as a half-joking questioning of her supposedly wolfy wording (which didn't look wolfy to me in the first place) instead of reading it the same way I did ie that he's making fun of her for wanting the Europeans dead.
5. Tired Agan gets angry because she thinks I think she's stupid and thinks I'm suspicious and grasping at straws, votes for me.
6. I find her overt defensiveness far more condemning than her initial wolvish-ish way of reading morm's comment and vote for her. And yes to be fair I also got angry because I thought the way she was trying to undermine my initial point was offensive and implying I was stupid.

So, as a summary: I wasn't suspicious of Agan because she made a Freudian slip, but because she acted as if she had made one when no one else thought so, and later because she became so defensive over it. I still think that's one of the most substantial grounds for suspicion/voting someone yesterDay.

Furthermore, the only two "weird" things about our mutual suspicion/ argument yesterDay (to me) are:
1) Agan getting over the top defensive
2) us both getting angry at each other for which was silly

Originally Posted by Agan

First off I owe an apology to Lommy. Her original post doesn't look as offensive now that it's not 2 am anymore. In any case, I didn't mean to paint you as stupid or insignificant and am sorry I came across that way (I said ThinLOLmien because your long paragraph about me made actually me go "LOOOOL what the hell's she saying").

Apology accepted!

Originally Posted by Agan

However, I still think she blew my joke way out of proportion - and in two stages too, with the initial "OMG WHAT did I just see ttyl" and then the long (given circumstances) analysis of why my reaction to morm's joke means I'm a wolf. If it had just been the former (as a way of expressing confusion) I wouldn't have raised an eyebrow, but the way she continued, she actually seemed gleeful to find something to latch on and that's really quite fishy.

Okay, the two stages was 1) adding a hurried note about a cross-post because it seriously baffled me and I had not time to look at it more then and 2) rereading it later to check if it really was something. Also I freely admit part of the reason for writing "omg what's Agan saying was that a slip" when not having time to think it through was to fish for a reaction - which I did, interestingly enough, get from Greenie who defended you.

With the risk of beating a dead horse, I still think you wouldn't have made that joke as an innocent because it simply wouldn't have occurred to you, and even if I'm wrong about that, had you been innocent, I'm sure you could have explained yourself more calmly instead of going for a full-blown counter-attack.

I hope this clarifies where I'm coming from to everyone.

~*~

Originally Posted by Mac

He did suspect four people in #130: Nogrod, Loslote, Firefoot, and me. His innocent list contains exactly four people as well, interestingly. If he was the seer, he would have left some hidden hint as to which two of those four people were actually guilty.

It's possible it's all in the wording. I think I may want to check his posts for myself to get an idea - even though, if there's something that looks like he might have seer dreamed someone as innocent, for example, and we assume the wolves latched on it, it's still not exactly super helpful because the person the phantom would've talked about could still be part of the other wolf pack.

Now that I'm thinking about the Night kills, I also think killing the phantom might have had no reason except "this will keep 'em talking".

By the way I notice I keep assuming the Night killed people were innocent, and we can't really know that. But looking for wolf matey connections between them and the living is as random as haphazardly choosing to analyze the connections of a living person. Agh. I'm starting to think there's two ways to proceed in this game: analyzing everything twice as carefully as usual to try to make up for the missing information OR going only by your gut and whatever small things you notice in other people's behaviour. The first option sounds more productive but also way more time consuming...

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Why a wolf would want to tie: 1) Hide in a systemic vote – no voting patterns to trace. (This seems a lot less compelling to me than the not wanting to tie – if I was a wolf, I’d rather just have more people die. I think.)

What about not getting herself or a packmate lynched. I seriously think the wolves would be more concerned about that than the average ordo would be about lynching a gifted. Like, ordos may be rationally concerned about lynching a gifted, but the wolves would be emotionally concerned about themselves or their packmates dying, and I think everybody has some emotional motivation behind their actions while not everybody has rational motivation behind their actions as well. Okay, wow, that sounded pretty mean, but I hope you see what I mean. Also to clarify, I definitely don't think it's irrational for an ordo to prefer a lynch to a tie (quite the contrary anyway but that's not related), I'm only saying an ordo supporting a tie to protect the gifted probably has a rational reasoning behind it while a wolf supporting a tie might just have an emotional reasoning for playing it safe, and since I find emotional reasoning more common in this game than ice cold logic, I definitely don't think it's unsuspicious to want a tie.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Which means that they could spend the whole game targeting "potential Seers" (or, at least, until there's a reveal or something). Not sure how this is related to anything, but anyway.

...which should leave a nice trail? Good point. And that means they either have to give the seer dangerously much leeway or keep leaving trails. This is actually the first positive thing anyone has pointed out about the rules of this game! (Sorry dear Mod, I'm enjoying this game nevertheless, don't worry.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

Odd to me too, I can tell you. I thought I'd go brush my teeth and then come back to vote before turning in, but instead I somehow forgot to vote and went to sleep!

I KNEW THAT. (For the record, she's done this before, once worrying Nogrod to death as she had said she'll be back to vote in a minute, and then she didn't come back at all and wasn't answering her phone either. Well, turns out she had forgotten to vote, switched her phone off and gone to sleep.)

Next up (who knows when though): a better look at the tally and possibly a look at the phantom's (and Rune's?) posts.

PS. For anyone who wants to have a laugh on the expense of dead people (very crass I know ):

Originally Posted by Nog

I mean I'm happy to go to the Dead Thread as I have nothing to worry (if I'm lynched no gifted is lynched - and lynching a wolf is anyway a remarkable deed - so an innocent goes every now and then) and I think an innocent tp would think the same as well. But he clearly doesn't - and that's why I suspect him.

Also really curious to see what's going to happen seeing as Nogrod was very strongly against the living dictating anything to the dead, and the phantom was very strongly for it.


edit: xed with everyone - where did you guys come from? - and added a space (yes you can lynch me for editing my posts now )

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

But maybe the added value of having a "cleaner thread" would have been better?

Great, now I'm imagining one of the wolf packs consisting of people who get headache from scheming loudmouths and killing tp just because he irked them.

Also I see Greenie basically explained the me-Agan exchange yesterDay in almost exactly the same way as I did above. This warms my heart (someone understands me!) but combined with her original defense of Agan's slip/joke/you-know-what-I'm-talking-about also leaves me with no idea of what to think of her.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Maybe the wolves thought he's the hunter and decided to take the risk now that it's statistically the lowest?

Oooor what if both packs targeted the phantom who was the Hunter and Rune his pick?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also I see Greenie basically explained the me-Agan exchange yesterDay in almost exactly the same way as I did above. This warms my heart (someone understands me!) but combined with her original defense of Agan's slip/joke/you-know-what-I'm-talking-about also leaves me with no idea of what to think of her.

I didn't defend Agan as much as not see a slip there. Remember, by that point you hadn't made your case yet, you just said you smelled Freud. I didn't see the connection between her misinterpretation (?) of morm's comment and her possible wolfishness, and thus I thought you were referring to the "me and my wolf pack hee hee" and I didn't think that qualified as Freudian. After you presented your theory I could sort of see where you came from, and whether the theory was right or not I thought Agan's reaction to it was suspicious. Does this help?


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Just posting the sort of analysis of yesterDay's votes I thought I might make...

(I copied the list from morm's post, so I really hope it's correct!)

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Formendacil
Mormegil -> Macalaure
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Formendacil 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir
Legate -> A Little Green
Nogrod -> Aganzir 2
Form -> Form 3
Mith -> Agan 3
McCaber -> Agan 4
Firefoot -> Gwath
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Lommy 2
Mac -> Agan 5
TP -> Nog 2
Lottie -> Nog 3
Eomer -> Nog 4
Shasta -> Nog 5
Sally -> Nog 6

First thing to note, if we were talking about Aganwagon and Nogwagon appearing, there was, in fact, also already a sort of Formwagon. With that said that Form's self-vote seemed really dangerous to him, so I don't expect him to be a Wolf. Aganwagon was pushed forward most of all by the votes of Nog and Mith, and in both cases I am kind of dubious as to whether they would be doing it out of Wolfish intent. (There was the whole debate about who to vote going on at that time. Nog could be the one out of the two I'd rather suspect of Wolfy intention, given that he was earlier also testing the water with voting the phantom and all, but then again, even as innocent he would simply have ran out of options.) McCaber is more or less what would be the nail in the coffin if the vote had been successful, along with Mac.

There is the - for now, I'd say absolutely unlikely - possibility that Mac and Form are packmates and Macwolf was saving Formwolf and toDay again in the post earlier on where he was also saying he isn't likely to be Wolf (on logical grounds). But it would have to be really, really bold play from Form to vote himself at that moment if he were a Wolf, of course unless he were sure that e.g. Mac and maybe somebody else are going to save him etc. But this possibility I am mentioning rather just in case there are some revelations in the future which would suddenly e.g. show that Form might be a Wolf.

Back to the main topic: To be sure, the final push for the Nogwagon looks fishy by itself: all the people basically jumped up (or rather, down, since I have the red zone as the last) my list, because I would be really surprised if at least one Wolf didn't hide there. Statistically, I'd guess at least two, maybe even from different packs, especially if Nog is innocent (in that case, I'd easily imagine e.g. 2 and 1 Wolves voting there, or somesuch).

Effectively, based purely on votes, I'd be most curious about McCaber, Macalaure, and then the bunch of Nog-voters. Given that we don't know almost anything (like what role Nog actually is and all), can't really operate well on this. But just a way to sort out people in my head again in some different manner.

Probably will have to go now for the time being, but will post more later, obviously...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Oooor what if both packs targeted the phantom who was the Hunter and Rune his pick?

Well, it's possible, though the narration says they were both "mauled", which sounds more like a wolf-kill.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I wouldn't put it so strongly as "highly suspicious", but eyebrow-raising, perhaps. (I mean, in *this* game, why *not* make a case against a dead man?) There was nothing in Rune's posting that would link him with morm, though. Have you seen something in morm's, or was that just a guess?

No, not between morm and Rune. That suggestion was an off-the-cuff guess - I hadn't gone back and checked. They don't really interact much, if at all, which leads me to believe that, if they are packmates, it is not morm himself who is implicated by Rune's death, but rather the third packmate - Greenie, maybe, if Rune decided to throw out a bit of very light wolf-on-wolf, or Form, if he really went heavily wolf-on-wolf. Now, of course, I've moved into speculation, but that would be my guess as to why morm responded to Sally the way he did.

Besides his response to Sally, though, looking through morm's posts, I found that he and Rune played a very similar game in a lot of respects. Both hung back, both cast basically throw-away votes (Rune for Form, with the intention of tying, and morm for Mac, both very early on in the game), and both chose an side on the Dead thread debate and occasionally reiterated their support of that side, without actually getting their hands dirty. I could easily see them being a pair of wolves who wanted to stay out of the spotlight.

Of course, this could (and, honestly, probably is) just be wishful thinking. I would very much like to be one wolf down with another in sight. I definitely suspect morm, but I'll take a look at other people as well to try to avoid tunnel-visioning on him.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

[Firefoot]

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 280 and 281)?

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.


Mac and Sally top my list of suspects. Agan is a third because of the reaction yesterday to what I considered a bit of a joke but she is working at acquitting herself and I feel slightly better. There are others such as Eomer and Boro that I'd like to hear more from.

[Nerwen]

So I got caught up with things and haven't had time to do the more detailed analysis of yesterDay I'd planned. So just a few comments.

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.

Then we have Form Nilping himself- some seem to think this looks innocent, but really I cannot imagine why anyone, good or evil, would give himself the third vote at that point.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

Originally Posted by mormegil

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.

I'll third this. There's something wrong about him. Maybe I'm biased by the fact that the last time I was in a game with someone who prattled "helpfully" on and on and on about statistical probabilities, that person turned out to have fur and fangs. (Mac himself must have known that what he was doing was an academic excercise with no real practical value.) And then there's the thing I noticed toDay (#242)- it does seems to me to have that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion vibe.

Edit:x'd since morm at #285; clarification;word left out.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, and I missed you too, my sun in splendour.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

[Boromir88]

All we essentially know at this point is Rune and tp were not part of the same pack (considering the narration says they were "mauled" I'm also going with the interpretation they were killed by both packs). Which is a crummy position to be in, and we won't have any solid info (possibly) until the next DAY.

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

For the time being I'm assuming both Rune and the phantom were ordo, until there comes a time when we might discover otherwise. I can't recall playing with Rune in a long time, I didn't get any wolf-vibes from him. Rune seemed to side with the phantom on having no-lynch and criticized Nogrod, so it's possible one pack killed him to set up the Nog voters. (I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

The most likely wolf, of the 3 dead, I think is Nogrod and I would love for the Dead to check him tonight, but that's choice isn't up to me.

I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.

For the time being though, I'm going to go with the assumption Rune and the phantom are ordos.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

OK that makes more sense. Also can we rechristen the first one BandwAgan? And also Nogawagon would be a palindrome. (Also I should shut up.)

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

One small point: Lommy's post #271 mistakenly quotes me. I don't know who posted those words but it certainly wasn't me.

Obviously, this means shenanigans and that we should kill Lommy today.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's hard to post from a phone, .

Anyway, Legate has co-opted my project for the day, which was to look into the possibility of the Nog voters saving Agan with their votes. Bah.

As for my own vote yesterday (as it's been mentioned as suspicious by Firefoot and Mac, I believe) - I'm pretty sure I mentioned why I was suspicious of Nog fairly early on (for me, anyway) because of that comment of his about ordos being fine with being lynched. It looked like he was setting up to be able to suspect anyone who was defensive about being lynched (as he actually did, with Phantom) and was the most suspicious thing I saw yesterday.

Also, I believe most of the latter votes on Nog were made at roughly the same time, though it's hard to go back and look at cross votes on my phone.

More later. I'll be checking in periodically.

[Macalaure]

I looked phantom's post over again, and didn't find anything that looked like a hint at seer dreams hidden in his list. I didn't exactly expect to find one either, though. Since, like most, I think, I don't think he looked wolfish, I assume he was killed for one or both of these reasons:
-they were afraid of a vocal, innocent-looking player organizing the village against them
-they thought they spotted a hunter hint

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation?

I read over my own post again before replying, and maybe I sounded more tense than intended (I ran out of smileys. ), but calling it really defensively? Maybe I'm being touchy here, but I don't like that wording.

I mean, if people give arguments against me, I defend myself. Especially if the arguments are not very good.

Originally Posted by mormegil

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.

Well, that's not something one can defend oneself against.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, that's not something one can defend oneself against.

Sure there is, shave the fur and see a healer. Honestly, in the game where we don't know the identities yet, I have little to go on other than my hunches and intuition, which tells me you are a wolf. The only defense, in my mind, is to stop feeling like a wolf. You have many hours to relieve me of my suspicion of you. Some things like your grasping at straws comment in #242 just nag at me. It screams that you are trying to sound confused when you are not.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

There are two reasons why a wolf pack might decide to kill someone in this game: a) they think the person is a Gifted, and b) they think the person was a member of the other pack - and yes, in that order, I fully acknowledge that. In this case, however, I do not think Rune looked like a Gifted. He certainly didn't look like a Seer, anyway, at least as far as I can tell, and I haven't picked up on anything else, either. But the wolves must have thought he was something, because I don't think this is a game where no-trace kills are going to be a priority on Night 2.

Furthermore, I think the fact that the second person killed was tp is telling. I doubt the wolves thought tp was Gifted - unless they figured he was bluffing, or double bluffing, or whatever, but that's a hard loop to get into when it's all centered around tp. My thought is that, if the pack which killed tp had had a solid lead on a Gifted, they would have gone with that over tp. Therefore, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to say that neither pack had a solid lead on a Gifted last Night, and that both went with other options.

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.

The fact that you (morm) were so quick to jump down Sally's throat for suggesting it and are so confident now about what the wolves are thinking suggests to me that either Sally is right and you didn't think anyone would come up with it, or that Sally is wrong and you, knowing what is right, consider anything which is not correct to be absurd and suspicious. But the only people who can say "of course she is wrong" are the people who know, because they were there when the decision was made.

I will not likely be back much before deadline. This will be the only day like that this game (fingers crossed), but I'll have to vote basically now or risk not getting back in time or having to vote sloppily after only having about a half an hour to read the thread. My vote at this point will probably be for morm, unless something else comes up in the next five minutes.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.

I don't think the idea should be written off either, however as I've indicated it's much more likely they were trying to target a potential seer than a wolf from a different pack. What bothered me about Sally's post was how she immediately jumped to that conclusion that "Well they must have thought Rune was a wolf". Why must that have been the immediate conclusion? You don't strike me as suspicious because you are looking at other sides and sticking your neck out a bit. But when such an early post comes to an immediate and seemingly definitive conclusion that is somewhat counter-intuitive and the other possibility isn't even consider, yes I will consider that suspicious.

x'ed with Lottie's vote for me