Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 06-03-2015, 01:51 PM

So here’s my two cents on some general issues we’d need to tackle on this first Day here together. Basically I think we have two issues: whom of us to check during the Night to come and whom to give the double-vote by Day and on which grounds – and what kind of problems there will be to make the double-vote significant in a benefical way. I would call the tasks “gathering information” and “influencing the game”.

Gathering information

With the best/worst case scenario there will be three people entering the afterworld during every Day-Night –cycle – in which time we are able to check the alignment of just one. So we will be actually knowing very little indeed. I mean even if there’d be Days with no lynch or if one Night-kill would fail to happen it will take only a few D-N –cycles when we have a situation where we only know the identities of let’s say 3 in comparison to 9 unknowns. It is not so good I kind of hoped for (yeah I really hadn’t too much time to check the rules that well before the game started).

But whom to check then with our precious few opportunities to do that?

Obviously we should pay heed to which solid knowledge could help the village the most if / when someone comes here to pay a visit and will resurrect back to the Living to share the news.

Also if someone has acted very suspiciously in the Living Thread (or is the phantom) or we have other strong reasons to believe someone is a wolf (like s/he acts suspiciously here) that person should be our number one candidate for checking.

But what if we don’t have a clear candidate – or don’t agree on one (in the end we’ll vote, of course)? Are there any other grounds for choosing the person whose alignment to reveal? I mean that might be something we need to ponder now early in the game – unless we get enough controversial people here…

Just looking a bare numbers one might think the lynched are slightly more probably wolves than the Night kills so checking them would be more benefical. Then again the wolves can sway the lynch-vote (which I think could have happened on D1), especially in this game where there are no evident traces left from any last minute mate-saving efforts. So the wolves seem to be better in saving their mates from lynching this time which would mean the Night kills would be the more probable source of wolves pouring in here?

It’s hard to say. I kind of hoped this thinking would have led me into some decent advice we could take when in doubt – but sadly it doesn ‘t seem to be that way.

Influencing the game

After reading the rules more carefully I found another setback here (the other being that we don’t know so much I thought, discussed above). Our ability to influnce the vote is more or less random – and in no way have we control over what happens in the lynching of the Living Thread unless by chance as the last minute frenzy might turn the voting to whichever direction – and later on when we have more people here the same frenzy will spread to this thread as well.

It will come as no suprise to you I didn’t like the phantom’s grand plan on D1 and even if I do admit it has some merit in principle (as a nice thought-experiment) it is in no way executable (the suggestion can be found from #34). First of all it is questionable we get that kind of a nice setting where we can pick from three different person from both sides of the lynchees with an unanimous understanding of the way the Living will interpret it. Secondly the last minute mayhem will prove a problem here as well as the majority of the votes could be coming in at the last minutes and there might just not be time to elaborate the “rules of interpretation” not to say being able to execute the correct vote from this thread.

So I’d say we try – at least on the early days – to just give an extra vote to someone who is voting for someone we think is more probably a wolf than not. It would be a nice bonus if there would be someone we think of as a particularly innocent voting that person we suspect and give our extra-vote to her/him to kind of show whom we tend to trust that person (later on we might actually have some real reasons to trust someone or suspect someone – reasons the living don’t have).

~*~

I do not like to try and set anything in stone or make rules to ourselves as the game can surprise and we can’t foresee all the situations that will emerge – but I hope these thoughts could serve as the beginning of our discussion on D2 when we have to decide whom to give the extra vote – and N3 when we need to select one of us to be revealed.

A few Days and Nights from now the situation might be something we can’t even imagine now it being.

Btw. as an European (although an European on semi-vacation) I am not able to hang out around the DL (the DL is 5am here), so I’ll be withdrawing something like 3-4 hours before the DL the latest – in principle.

Looking forwards having company here! (I should be around in something like 12 hours from now - like six hours after the Day starts)

Kuruharan · 06-03-2015, 08:00 PM

The first denizen, having eaten some cake, left a message for those that came after and then had settled into quietude.

New lights disturbed the mist, victims of murders most foul.

They will probably have much to discuss with each other...

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne

The Living:
Formendacil
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Macalaure
Gwathagor
McCaber
Loslote
Boromir88
Aganzir
Nerwen
Firefoot
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Shastanis Althreduin
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
A Little Green
Kath

Those of you who are new, welcome! Try the cake. Here we have cake AND death!

Kick back and enjoy watching the antics of the Living Thread.

Remember to vote for somebody to empower with a double vote!

Housekeeping Note: I will always post the Dead Thread narrations before the Living Thread.

the phantom · 06-03-2015, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

But as lynching doesn't mean getting kicked out of the game this time, I'm pretty happy with it.

Indeed. And didn't I say I'd be making my way to the Dead without your fanning the lynching flames?

Quote:

Originally Posted by me

I'll be an asset to whatever thread I'm in, Noggie. If you really want me in the Dead thread...

Hey Wolves. Kill me tonight. Ranger. Do not protect me.

There. We'll see if that works.

But no, I'm not going to volunteer for lynching. Totally pointless.

Quote:

Originally Posted by me

And just so you know, I'm operating under the assumption that any Wolf would be desperate to kill me in case I'm in the opposing pack.

Yeah, I figured I'd be Night killed promptly. With two packs running around it was basically a certainty. Someone loud like me always says enough that either they see a good opportunity to frame someone or they get worried about something.

Anyway, I see you didn't enter the Dead thread with a rant about why we shouldn't have killed our precious Seer/Ranger/etc. so I'm just going to assume you're a Wolf.

Okay, okay... maybe a 5% chance you're an Ordo.

(Well actually a 50% chance given the village population on Day 1.)

Heh heh- I'd really love to check you tonight, but if the Living request the identity of someone else (Rune, me, today's lynch) then I'll probably just go along with it. We'll see.

Anyway, no reason for us to stop playing, right? Soon enough this thread will be the lively one (in the posting sense). So, I will do a bit of Day 1 analysis after I eat and before I go to bed.

the phantom · 06-03-2015, 09:05 PM

And just so you know, I was quite content with the tie that we forged before Sally tipped the scales and made it a lynch. It's difficult to get a feel for anyone on Day 1 what with all the enthusiasm and nerves and rust etc. and I thought it would be nice to be bailed out with a tie and essentially force the WWs to make the first move. But I'm not waffling on my choice- I was sincere in wishing Nog lynched before Agan and Form.

Form just looked waaaaay too much like an Ordo (but maybe it was just gutsy fantastic play?), and I was slightly worried about Agan being Gifted. Nog on the other hand- I felt he was not Gifted, and more likely a Wolf than Form. In other words, somewhat suspicious and very safe. If it had been entirely in my hands I was probably more suspicious of Firefoot (and I hated her vote), but I didn't feel a campaign against her would amount to much- certainly wouldn't yield enough votes to make things close or even forge a tie.

Anyway, off to eat. See you later.

Rune Son of Bjarne · 06-04-2015, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

And just so you know, I was quite content with the tie that we forged before Sally tipped the scales and made it a lynch. It's difficult to get a feel for anyone on Day 1 what with all the enthusiasm and nerves and rust etc. and I thought it would be nice to be bailed out with a tie and essentially force the WWs to make the first move. But I'm not waffling on my choice- I was sincere in wishing Nog lynched before Agan and Form.

Form just looked waaaaay too much like an Ordo (but maybe it was just gutsy fantastic play?), and I was slightly worried about Agan being Gifted. Nog on the other hand- I felt he was not Gifted, and more likely a Wolf than Form. In other words, somewhat suspicious and very safe. If it had been entirely in my hands I was probably more suspicious of Firefoot (and I hated her vote), but I didn't feel a campaign against her would amount to much- certainly wouldn't yield enough votes to make things close or even forge a tie.

Not that I want to make a habit out of agreeing with you, or backing your perplexing plans, but yeah... uhm I agree.

Form had Ordo written all over him. Personally I did not suspect Agan of being gifted, but she was one of the few people that seemed genuine (as much as that is possible for Agan) to me. I was a lot more weary of people like Lommy, her posted seemed contrived, and her outbursts overdone.

Since I will be otherwise occupied the rest of the day, it is unlikely that I will contribute with major analysis or have time to rummage through what happened yesterday, but I will try to keep an eye on the living thread.

the phantom · 06-04-2015, 01:14 AM

Ah, welcome to the Dead Thread, Rune. Similar to Nog, since you didn't lead off with "This is disaster! I'm the Seer!" I will assume you're not vital to the village. If it's true that all three of us are ungifted, then really we should be quite happy to be dead.

Anyway, I'm nearly done with my Day 1 readthrough (putting checks and plus signs and Gifted marks etc. next to names as I read...)

the phantom · 06-04-2015, 02:11 AM

My re-read of yesterday didn't result in thoughts much different than those I already had. Ah well...

Agan- I was mighty suspicious of those that voted for her (or pushed for her) because she gave off more Gifted signs than anyone else. Yes, yes, I realize that Wolves can give off Gifted signs early (pronounced self-interest, self-focus retaliatory suspicions, etc.), but why risk voting for someone on Day 1 that looks likely to have a role?
I marked seven people for possible Gifteds (Nerwen, Nilp, Sally, Boro, Rune, Mith, Agan, Green), but Agan accumulated 5 marks by the end- way more than anyone else. Not to mention that I, early on as a ploy (before she looked so Gifted-ish), tried to hint at Agan being my Lover. Did those attacking her not catch it, or did they totally see what I did and wanted to kill my Lover?

Anyway, that might've been what tipped the scales for going after Nog- because I thought he was the opportunistic sort that might catch such a signal and look to bump off a Gifted. It's why I thought him more Wolfish than Agan, anyway (and Form certainly looked innocent).

Anyway, a list of the living....

Very positive marks currently-
Rikae
Morm
Mith
Form
Boro
Lommy
Agan

Somewhat positive marks currently-
Nilp
Sally
Nerwen

I'm not certain, mixed signals-
Firefoot
Shasta
Eomer
Mac
Green
McCaber
Legate

Suspicious at the moment-
Lalaith
Loslote
Kath

Any speculation as to why Rune and I were killed? Also, if Agan is the Seer it seems she dreamt Lommy and Firefoot overnight and cleared them (and dreamt me and Legate yesterday- wondered if her Nobel Prize comment was a hint that Leggy had a Gifted role, especially when paired with her comment about the Seer finding a Gifted and then hinting to him).

Anyway, possibly pointless to even be speculating on such things with almost no information, but I can't help myself.

06-03-2015, 01:51 PM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	So here’s my two cents on some general issues we’d need to tackle on this first Day here together. Basically I think we have two issues: whom of us to check during the Night to come and whom to give the double-vote by Day and on which grounds – and what kind of problems there will be to make the double-vote significant in a benefical way. I would call the tasks “gathering information” and “influencing the game”. Gathering information With the best/worst case scenario there will be three people entering the afterworld during every Day-Night –cycle – in which time we are able to check the alignment of just one. So we will be actually knowing very little indeed. I mean even if there’d be Days with no lynch or if one Night-kill would fail to happen it will take only a few D-N –cycles when we have a situation where we only know the identities of let’s say 3 in comparison to 9 unknowns. It is not so good I kind of hoped for (yeah I really hadn’t too much time to check the rules that well before the game started). But whom to check then with our precious few opportunities to do that? Obviously we should pay heed to which solid knowledge could help the village the most if / when someone comes here to pay a visit and will resurrect back to the Living to share the news. Also if someone has acted very suspiciously in the Living Thread (or is the phantom) or we have other strong reasons to believe someone is a wolf (like s/he acts suspiciously here) that person should be our number one candidate for checking. But what if we don’t have a clear candidate – or don’t agree on one (in the end we’ll vote, of course)? Are there any other grounds for choosing the person whose alignment to reveal? I mean that might be something we need to ponder now early in the game – unless we get enough controversial people here… Just looking a bare numbers one might think the lynched are slightly more probably wolves than the Night kills so checking them would be more benefical. Then again the wolves can sway the lynch-vote (which I think could have happened on D1), especially in this game where there are no evident traces left from any last minute mate-saving efforts. So the wolves seem to be better in saving their mates from lynching this time which would mean the Night kills would be the more probable source of wolves pouring in here? It’s hard to say. I kind of hoped this thinking would have led me into some decent advice we could take when in doubt – but sadly it doesn ‘t seem to be that way. Influencing the game After reading the rules more carefully I found another setback here (the other being that we don’t know so much I thought, discussed above). Our ability to influnce the vote is more or less random – and in no way have we control over what happens in the lynching of the Living Thread unless by chance as the last minute frenzy might turn the voting to whichever direction – and later on when we have more people here the same frenzy will spread to this thread as well. It will come as no suprise to you I didn’t like the phantom’s grand plan on D1 and even if I do admit it has some merit in principle (as a nice thought-experiment) it is in no way executable (the suggestion can be found from #34). First of all it is questionable we get that kind of a nice setting where we can pick from three different person from both sides of the lynchees with an unanimous understanding of the way the Living will interpret it. Secondly the last minute mayhem will prove a problem here as well as the majority of the votes could be coming in at the last minutes and there might just not be time to elaborate the “rules of interpretation” not to say being able to execute the correct vote from this thread. So I’d say we try – at least on the early days – to just give an extra vote to someone who is voting for someone we think is more probably a wolf than not. It would be a nice bonus if there would be someone we think of as a particularly innocent voting that person we suspect and give our extra-vote to her/him to kind of show whom we tend to trust that person (later on we might actually have some real reasons to trust someone or suspect someone – reasons the living don’t have). ~*~ I do not like to try and set anything in stone or make rules to ourselves as the game can surprise and we can’t foresee all the situations that will emerge – but I hope these thoughts could serve as the beginning of our discussion on D2 when we have to decide whom to give the extra vote – and N3 when we need to select one of us to be revealed. A few Days and Nights from now the situation might be something we can’t even imagine now it being. Btw. as an European (although an European on semi-vacation) I am not able to hang out around the DL (the DL is 5am here), so I’ll be withdrawing something like 3-4 hours before the DL the latest – in principle. Looking forwards having company here! (I should be around in something like 12 hours from now - like six hours after the Day starts) __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

06-03-2015, 08:00 PM	#2
Kuruharan Regal Dwarven Shade Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold Posts: 3,593	New Friends! The first denizen, having eaten some cake, left a message for those that came after and then had settled into quietude. New lights disturbed the mist, victims of murders most foul. They will probably have much to discuss with each other... The Missing or Dead: Kuruharan Nogrod the phantom Rune Son of Bjarne The Living: Formendacil Rikae satansaloser2005 Macalaure Gwathagor McCaber Loslote Boromir88 Aganzir Nerwen Firefoot Thinlómien Lalaith Eomer of the Rohirrim mormegil Nilpaurion Felagund Shastanis Althreduin Legate of Amon Lanc Mithalwen A Little Green Kath Those of you who are new, welcome! Try the cake. Here we have cake AND death! Kick back and enjoy watching the antics of the Living Thread. Remember to vote for somebody to empower with a double vote! Housekeeping Note: I will always post the Dead Thread narrations before the Living Thread. __________________ ...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no...

06-03-2015, 09:05 PM	#4
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	And just so you know, I was quite content with the tie that we forged before Sally tipped the scales and made it a lynch. It's difficult to get a feel for anyone on Day 1 what with all the enthusiasm and nerves and rust etc. and I thought it would be nice to be bailed out with a tie and essentially force the WWs to make the first move. But I'm not waffling on my choice- I was sincere in wishing Nog lynched before Agan and Form. Form just looked waaaaay too much like an Ordo (but maybe it was just gutsy fantastic play?), and I was slightly worried about Agan being Gifted. Nog on the other hand- I felt he was not Gifted, and more likely a Wolf than Form. In other words, somewhat suspicious and very safe. If it had been entirely in my hands I was probably more suspicious of Firefoot (and I hated her vote), but I didn't feel a campaign against her would amount to much- certainly wouldn't yield enough votes to make things close or even forge a tie. Anyway, off to eat. See you later. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

06-04-2015, 01:14 AM	#6
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Ah, welcome to the Dead Thread, Rune. Similar to Nog, since you didn't lead off with "This is disaster! I'm the Seer!" I will assume you're not vital to the village. If it's true that all three of us are ungifted, then really we should be quite happy to be dead. Anyway, I'm nearly done with my Day 1 readthrough (putting checks and plus signs and Gifted marks etc. next to names as I read...) __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

06-04-2015, 02:11 AM	#7
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	My re-read of yesterday didn't result in thoughts much different than those I already had. Ah well... Agan- I was mighty suspicious of those that voted for her (or pushed for her) because she gave off more Gifted signs than anyone else. Yes, yes, I realize that Wolves can give off Gifted signs early (pronounced self-interest, self-focus retaliatory suspicions, etc.), but why risk voting for someone on Day 1 that looks likely to have a role? I marked seven people for possible Gifteds (Nerwen, Nilp, Sally, Boro, Rune, Mith, Agan, Green), but Agan accumulated 5 marks by the end- way more than anyone else. Not to mention that I, early on as a ploy (before she looked so Gifted-ish), tried to hint at Agan being my Lover. Did those attacking her not catch it, or did they totally see what I did and wanted to kill my Lover? Anyway, that might've been what tipped the scales for going after Nog- because I thought he was the opportunistic sort that might catch such a signal and look to bump off a Gifted. It's why I thought him more Wolfish than Agan, anyway (and Form certainly looked innocent). Anyway, a list of the living.... Very positive marks currently- Rikae Morm Mith Form Boro Lommy Agan Somewhat positive marks currently- Nilp Sally Nerwen I'm not certain, mixed signals- Firefoot Shasta Eomer Mac Green McCaber Legate Suspicious at the moment- Lalaith Loslote Kath Any speculation as to why Rune and I were killed? Also, if Agan is the Seer it seems she dreamt Lommy and Firefoot overnight and cleared them (and dreamt me and Legate yesterday- wondered if her Nobel Prize comment was a hint that Leggy had a Gifted role, especially when paired with her comment about the Seer finding a Gifted and then hinting to him). Anyway, possibly pointless to even be speculating on such things with almost no information, but I can't help myself. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.