Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Form – if you wait for chances to get over 50-50 with lynching you’d need to give up lynching altogether: unless a seer reveals with some solid background knowledge on her/his status, every lynch is less than that.

It's not the odds alone that have me--obviously, if we lynch no one at all, the odds of us winning on Gifteds alone, even with the Wolves killing each other--approaches near-impossible odds.

Arguing that the odds never improve does less to convince me than something Thinlómien said:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, but you forget the Night kills are hardly the only trail the wolves leave, and they are even less reliable in this game than in your average game since the roles are not revealed upon death. (Of course, the same goes for the usefulness of the lynches, but the lynches are our only weapon against the wolves, and while they might be killing each other, all the six wolves won't die without our help.)

It's not so much that I forgot that the kills weren't revealed as that I'd somehow failed to take that into account in thinking about statistics. Though, now that I am thinking about it, I'm not sure I've changed my mind so much as I've become even more confused.

Whatever the odds, we won't know if we've killed a wolf or innocent today--nor will we know the identities of the victims toNight. So... does it make more sense to play the odds straight (and avoid lynching toDay) or to take the shotgun approach and kill everyone available and hope that when the dust clears we've killed more than they have?

So, while I agree with Nog that backtrackings are valuable... do we have long enough to wait for them? My inclinations are leaning more than ever to lynching no one today, but I'm getting to the point of thinking I have nothing more than gut feeling to go by there.