T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

First off, calling for reveals is premature. We don't know that the seer dreams are all still alive - if they are, yeah, a seer reveal of three dreams + seer would narrow our unknowns down to three people, but if not, it really would be unwise.

Second, we don't know that there's any kind of ranger at all. "Very strange" suggests there isn't, and something else prevented the wolf kill, quite possibly something we can't count on in the future.

Either way, the narration said the Agan was going after Galadriel, and if she was right, she'll be back again toNight, and we'd have lost our Seer. Even if that's not a guarantee, I think the risk that the wolves know who the Seer is and that they'll kill her as soon as they can is great enough to justify a reveal, especially since we're far enough in the game that the dreams can be useful - especially since I believe Sally's reveal - she wasn't in any danger of being lynched, and if she lied about Shasta being a wolf, we'll know toMorrow and lynch her accordingly. A fake reveal from Sally at this point in the game doesn't make sense.

Third, the narration suggests there are three wolves.

Oh. I misinterpreted it, then, my bad. Still, even if it was three wolves, we'll be down to just the one wolf after toDay, so that's still not bad.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Loslote

. A fake reveal from Sally at this point in the game doesn't make sense

Are we sure we don't have a cobbler? I really wish i was home to be able to read up on things

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Either way, the narration said the Agan was going after Galadriel, and if she was right, she'll be back again toNight, and we'd have lost our Seer. Even if that's not a guarantee, I think the risk that the wolves know who the Seer is and that they'll kill her as soon as they can is great enough to justify a reveal, especially since we're far enough in the game that the dreams can be useful - especially since I believe Sally's reveal - she wasn't in any danger of being lynched, and if she lied about Shasta being a wolf, we'll know toMorrow and lynch her accordingly. A fake reveal from Sally at this point in the game doesn't make sense.

If she's honest she can and should tell us everything she knows. In fact, she hasn't even called herself the seer, or Shasta a wolf.

I wonder... let me go check something.

[Rikae]

Just looking at Shasta/Sally interactions. Seems he did suspect her, and the reasons look a little fabricated to me, but he went after Lottie far more strongly.
I could, however, see a wolf-Sally thinking Shasta was the seer. Or perhaps Shasta was the cursed...? Sally could decide to sacrifice him and win our trust long enough to win the game.

This may seem paranoid, but she's expecting people to trust her before she's given us much of anything, and that doesn't sit right with me.

[Rikae]

Actually, now that I work it out, she couldn't win our trust long enough to win (2 wolf 5 innocent toDay, 1 wolf 4 innocent toMorrow, 1 wolf 2 innocent day-after-tomorrow) - not unless there are three wolves left (3 wolf 5 innocent, 2 wolf 3 innocent, 2 wolf 1 innocent).
But it was 2-3, which I'm now thinking almost certainly means a cursed and we have 2 wolves right now.
Perhaps she's sure Shasta is the seer and believes she's already doomed, and sees an opportunity to get him lynched AND out Nimrodel, going out in a blaze of glory. I could definitely see Sally doing that.

I'm not saying she can't be the seer but I absolutely think all voting and/or revealing should wait until she comes back and gives us a more complete reveal to work with.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I could, however, see a wolf-Sally thinking Shasta was the seer. Or perhaps Shasta was the cursed...? Sally could decide to sacrifice him and win our trust long enough to win the game.

Let's see. Assuming a worst case scenario that there are two wolves and that Sally is one of them... (But not factoring in Nimrodel and any hunting she might do.)

Scenario A - sacrificial wolf Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill a guilty Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
5 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 4. The wolf kills an innocent.
4 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 4. If the true Seer died on Day 3 or Night 4, we kill a guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

If the Seer is still alive, they come forward. Believing Sally, we kill the true Seer.
3 innocents, 1 wolf

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. The remaining two innocents kill the guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

So, I think that a sacrificial wolf Shasta would not work.


Scenario B - innocent Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill an innocent Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
4 innocents, 2 wolves.

Night 4. Wolves kill an innocent.
3 innocents, 2 wolves.

Day 4. We kill a guilty Sally.
3 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. Vote decides the matter between two innocents and one wolf. Game over, could go to wolves or could go to village. However, if the true Seer had had any useful dreams to tell us at some point or we had additional info, that could make the odds better.

Is my reasoning in the above scenarios correct?

[satansaloser2005]

Nerwen, give me strength.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Let's see. Assuming a worst case scenario that there are two wolves and that Sally is one of them... (But not factoring in Nimrodel and any hunting she might do.)

Scenario A - sacrificial wolf Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill a guilty Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
5 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 4. The wolf kills an innocent.
4 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 4. If the true Seer died on Day 3 or Night 4, we kill a guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

If the Seer is still alive, they come forward. Believing Sally, we kill the true Seer.
3 innocents, 1 wolf

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. The remaining two innocents kill the guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

So, I think that a sacrificial wolf Shasta would not work.

Yes, that's what I was just saying in my last post.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Scenario B - innocent Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill an innocent Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
4 innocents, 2 wolves.

Night 4. Wolves kill an innocent.
3 innocents, 2 wolves.

Day 4. We kill a guilty Sally.
3 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. Vote decides the matter between two innocents and one wolf. Game over, could go to wolves or could go to village. However, if the true Seer had had any useful dreams to tell us at some point or we had additional info, that could make the odds better.

This is why this would make sense if Sally is convinced Shasta is the seer & he dreamed of her already - she'd be doomed, so she may as well take him (and Nimrodel) down with her. And of course it would be better for her to reveal before Shasta did, since it would give her a better chance of misleading innocent votes.
All this hinges on her not having a plausible story when she gets back - we'll see.

[Farael]

Thanks for doing the math, Copper

I'm still wondering about a Sally cobbler. She would count as an innocent in the end-game, so sacrificing herself to bring out the true Seer AND Hunter would be a heck of a move. It means today we Lynch an innocent (ish), tonight the wolves nab the Seer and (depending on what a potentially true Seer would have to say today), we might not be any closer to a resolution.

Also, we might be making a mistake and assuming the remaining lover is in our side.

What if they are a side of their own? !

In that case we may have to be extra careful with what we assume they may do.

I think there are too many unknowns right now, and Sally's reveal was very... unclear at best.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Rikae, I didn't actually suspect Sally. I did, and do, suspect Lottie, though, which makes her early jump on to Sally's vote pretty much par for the course.