WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

Is there a new role that reads my mind and posts for me?

It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.