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06-25-2014, 07:57 AM | #1 | |
Fluttering Enchantment
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That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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06-25-2014, 08:23 AM | #2 | ||
Bittersweet Symphony
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: On the jolly starship Enterprise
Posts: 1,814
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I'm not sensing a clear direction for the voting yet... I shall have to go back and peruse your posts once again. We have yet to hear from Eonwe, A Little Green, and Nogrod. Are they quivering with fear in the corner (AKA doing real life things) or trying to fly low under the radar? |
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06-25-2014, 08:49 AM | #3 | ||
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since: A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off. B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet. I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear. It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it. So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents. Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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06-25-2014, 09:12 AM | #4 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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06-25-2014, 09:15 AM | #5 |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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06-25-2014, 09:18 AM | #6 | |
Fluttering Enchantment
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But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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06-25-2014, 09:21 AM | #7 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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K, I think we're complicating it a bit. According to the admin thread "The innocents win when all Lions have been eliminated." So yeah, as soon as the Lions are all gone, the Village wins and if both Bear/Maiden are alive they win as well. In a traditional Bear game I think we would have had to keep hunting to get the Bear before we could win, but in this case he is foremost a Lover; so the traditional way for lovers to win is what applies here.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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06-25-2014, 09:37 AM | #8 |
Laconic Loreman
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It's no surprise wilwa understands bears better than the rest, but she's got a thing or two to learn about lions...
Lions the family and the name comes first. They will use the other houses as their weapons. In an inn this large, with this many families with divided loyalties and alterior motives it would be easy to lay low and let us do their dirty work, while taking out their worst threats at night. If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.
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Fenris Penguin
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06-25-2014, 09:48 AM | #9 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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This is an interesting Day 1! Lots of useful discussion about the numbers in the inn, the bear and maiden and alliances, and the Targaryen. I rather adore the changed dynamic from the other, smaller games I've been in.
The only problem is that most of this won't directly help us catch the lions. 21 in the Inn, made up of 16 innocents, 3 Lannisters, and the Bear and Maiden of undefined allegiance. Most of the people talking will be innocent or undefined, so though it's a good day for innocent discussion and planning, the odds are really against picking out a Lannister. I'm going to go and huddle by the fire under my many shawls and review what people have said so far. Mayhap I'll drink some ale while I'm at it. Edit: crossed with Skip Spence |
06-25-2014, 09:51 AM | #10 |
Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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Soooo I just got back to work today after 4 1/2 days of being gone and I cannot describe my current working situation in family friendly terms. I honestly don't think I will be able to contribute much more today. I have two 15 minutes breaks between now and DL, so my vote will be entirely random or will be based on flimsy feelings if I can find a suspicious post while I skim over the thread.
I'll be more active D2 when I've caught up at the office and the weekend descends. Sorry about this, didn't realize the world feel apart when I took a few days off.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
06-25-2014, 09:26 AM | #11 | |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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We lynch the bear, lose a night kill but the Lions gain a cobbler. Lions kill the bear, innocents gain a helper and we still lose a night kill. I prefer the odds of a Lion killing off a bear/maiden then us lynching them and essentially helping the Lions. Sure, the two-kill night could kill off more innocents, but could also kill off a lion and an innocent. Looking at the alternatives, lynching a bear/maiden will just end up helping the Lions more then helping the innocents.
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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06-25-2014, 09:40 AM | #12 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Edit: x'd with Boro.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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06-25-2014, 09:51 AM | #13 | |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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Edit: x'd with Cop and Skip the bold
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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06-25-2014, 09:57 AM | #14 | |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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I just can't tell if the villains are likely to be engaged in this discussion or whether they'll sit at the sides.
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06-25-2014, 09:52 AM | #15 | |||||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Then again, reading on, Wilwa's thoughts about the lovers seem more innocent-ish and trying-to-figure-it-out-right-ish. Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like. Quote:
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Last edited by Macalaure; 06-25-2014 at 09:53 AM. Reason: crossed with... lots |
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06-25-2014, 10:36 AM | #16 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Unless it becomes obvious the bear is siding with the village, there's a good chance the wolves will appreciate the help in decreasing our numbers. They could form an alliance through hints; after all, in Lommy's scenario, the five of them could win quite quickly together. Quote:
Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair! ++Macalaure Oh, by the way, Skip's vote doesn't count, does it? Aren't we supposed to do this newfangled highlighting nowadays? |
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06-25-2014, 09:41 AM | #17 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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If the lovers have decided to side with us, I assume he'd use the night kills to attempt to take out the last wolf. If he has no leads, maybe he'd skip the kill? |
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06-25-2014, 09:59 AM | #18 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
06-25-2014, 10:05 AM | #19 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I forgot the game yesterday-evening and am now busy watching football... I'll try to get this read through though and hopefully contribute something later. Sorry.
Looking at the brighter side: for once I'm not flooding the thread with theories and 20+ posts on D1!
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
06-25-2014, 10:13 AM | #20 | ||
Fluttering Enchantment
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x'ed with Nog and Rikae, who I agree with
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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