WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[satansaloser2005]

I found out that we will have a Very Important Visitor at work tomorrow, so I will be unable to access the Downs except during my lunch. If I wake up early enough in the morning, I'll vote before I head to work, but otherwise I'll have to pop in quickly during lunch and catch up as best I can before shooting off a quick vote. Obviously the latter is my preference, but I'll have to see how tomorrow unfolds.

I'm going to try to catch up on the thread before bed, but there doesn't seem to have been much of substance said so far, so I may put it off until morning.

[Gil-Galad]

Ah the first day, or as I like to call it "shot in the dark" day. I will be patient and do my dough-dancing for the guests.

(Just a heads up, I do have a final exam this saturday so ideally my focus will lay in studying for that. If a voting deadline is coming up and I am absent, one or all of the fabulous downers that have me on fb can feel free to msg me to remind me.)

"There is only one god, yeast, and when it refuses to rise we say 'not today'."

[Macalaure]

Mac Connington has been sitting in a corner of the inn, quietly. He was friendless here: all kinds of houses of Westeros were present, yet, the Martells aside, all of them loyal subjects of the Usurper. It made him sick. He wished he could feel different about the peasants, but he knew they cared little, as long as they were left alone and had the copper to buy an ale at the inn.

Yet now this inn didn't sell ale anymore, being violently parted from its owners. Maybe this was just the kind of stir needed to bring fat lords and witless smallfolk to a nobler cause. (Comment about incognito Targaryens withheld due to spoilers.)

Mac took off his glove, slowly and deliberately, and inspected his hand. The black nail on his index finger once again brought a frown to his face. He pulled his knife and carefully pricked the fingertip. He felt nothing, and his expression turned bitter. He put away the knife and swiftly slipped the glove back on, and then rose.

"I believe the matter at hand is clear enough. Were-Lannisters have killed our innkeeps, and there is little reason to believe they won't strike again the coming night. Since obviously we can't just leave this cursed place, we need to find who in our midst is secretly the worst among the Usurper's ilk." He looked around the common room in mistrust, then glanced again at his gloved hand. "And we don't have much time to do so! This place is suspiciously quiet and void of a sense of urgency!"

He collected himself, to voice his thoughts.

Originally Posted by Lommy

what is House Connington famous for? Being Targaryen loyalists and getting bitch slapped by Lannisters.

Lommy of House Baratheon, I name you liar! House Connington is also famous for losing crucial and extremely winnable battles.
Also, I'll say it again, I will have nothing to do with that Usurper's lickspittle Ronnel!

Originally Posted by Boro

And no one kills FOR Lannisters half as well as House Bolton.

I took the freedom to mend your quote for you, Boro of House Bolton.

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

"I believe the matter at hand is clear enough. Were-Lannisters have killed our innkeeps, and there is little reason to believe they won't strike again the coming night. Since obviously we can't just leave this cursed place, we need to find who in our midst is secretly the worst among the Usurper's ilk." He looked around the common room in mistrust, then glanced again at his gloved hand. "And we don't have much time to do so! This place is suspiciously quiet and void of a sense of urgency!"

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

What? Are you joking? This is such a classic wolf post I'm almost willing to give you the benefit of doubt, but not really.

Jumping on someone else's point to create suspicion against a group of people? Check. Throwing around vague suspicion that can't bear close inspection? Check.

Of course people are talking about the bear and the modified hunter this early on. It's always the exceptional rules that start the discussion on Day1 (it was the same last game, for example).

But ironically, your post has started the actual wolf suspicions (both by you suspecting the earlier posters and by me now suspecting you) so maybe I shouldn't complain.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Can we get modly clarification about whether we will get to know who was attacked at Night if it was the hunter and s/he lives?

[Nerwen]

Oh, come on, wolves love bear-hunting, Lommy.. Even more than cobbler-hunting.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

No, the hunter can reveal, but becomes an ordo on doing so.

Originally Posted by Teh Roolz

When killed, the mods will toss a coin to see if the Targaryen survives another day before quietly passing away or goes mad and takes a person of their choice to the grave with them. However, the mood in the Seven Kingdoms has been so anti-Targaryen lately that if they reveal, they will be bound in a chair to ensure they don't go mad (that is, they lose all their special power).

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, the hunter can reveal, but becomes an ordo on doing so.

Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?

[Thinlómien]

Okay, let me get this straight.

Good sides to having a bear
- it makes more sense for the bear and his lover to side with us (that would make the odds 18 against 3 and with a double ability to try to take out a wolf).
- even if the bear and his lover don't choose sides yet, they have a reasonable chance of killing a wolf even at random.

Bad sides to having a bear
- two kills per Night. Apparently I'm the only one freaked out by this atm. It's in the bear's interests as well as the wolves' to get rid of the gifted so this does not bode well.
- also, consequently, my maths say that if the bear and his lover choose to side with the wolves, then the worst case scenario is that we can have a total out in the open vote conspiracy that can make the village lose as early as Day4.

Also, I don't personally like the idea of a duo of people who can choose their allegiance having this much power, that's too much of a source of chaos. Otherwise, the ratio 16 innocents against 3 wolves sounds like we shouldn't be too worried, but we should not let it fool us. Let's win rather sooner than later, alright? I'm still annoyed by the wolf victory in the last game!!

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

Now let's just cross our fingers and hope that the bear and the wolves kill each others for us. We can deal with the bear later if they start to become problematic.


edi: xed with Nerwen

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also, I don't personally like the idea of a duo of people who can choose their allegiance having this much power, that's too much of a source of chaos. Otherwise, the ratio 16 innocents against 3 wolves sounds like we shouldn't be too worried, but we should not let it fool us. Let's win rather sooner than later, alright? I'm still annoyed by the wolf victory in the last game!!

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

Now let's just cross our fingers and hope that the bear and the wolves kill each others for us. We can deal with the bear later if they start to become problematic.

Hi there!

Never played with a bear (and a loving Maiden fair: how beastly!) before. Like you say, they really are an added source of chaos, as if ww wasn't chaotic enough as it is. This may change of course but at present the pair will have no reason to take sides. The bear can of course try to kill a Lion at some point but if it misses the mark it will surely not hesitate to switch sides again and then again if it seems beneficiary, making them as dangerous to the Lions as to the innocents. So we'd better focus on trying to reveal the Lions rather than the Lovers, since they are clear enemies. That's the way I see things at least.

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by skip spence

So we'd better focus on trying to reveal the Lions rather than the Lovers, since they are clear enemies. That's the way I see things at least.

*Puts his suspicious eyes on* Getting nervous eh?

Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I took the freedom to mend your quote for you, Boro of House Bolton.

*glares at Mac*

Where is Eomer of the House Stark? I'm here to let you know declare your enemies and Bolton stands behind you. Be advised not to listen to any Tully...they're not of the North and can't help us in matters of war and death.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Well, doesn't the Hunter already use his ability by surviving an extra Day, and can kinda do whatever they want since they're as good as dead by the next Nightfall? They've spent their power already, so they have nothing left to lose by revealing.

Originally Posted by Volo

Lommy's math is ominous. I would rest easier if someone proved her wrong.

What in Westeros is that supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But at that point (surviving the Night-kill) the hunter would have no power to lose, so no reason *not* to reveal; at least that's how I read it.

Yes, that's what I meant. Especially since the wolves/bear always know who the Hunter is, and the village doesn't always (only if he's lynched). The wolves and lovers know who they target and Night, we don't. That means that if the Hunter stays quiet, they have a Day to mop up their tracks and we are still walking in ignorance. If we don't know who they wanted to kill, we lack that much info on who to lynch that Day. The wolves/bear have one on us.

However, and this is something I have not considered when I started writing this post, the non-kill could just be a Ranger save from their perspective. They won't know either if said person is a Hunter or an unknown someone. Heck, the Ranger could be protecting a Lion from a Bear! I need to digest this thought, I can't think of all the consequences of this right away.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The narration will let you know if there's a ranger save or, indeed, if someone refuses to die.

Aw. That kinda kills it. Never mind the last cool thought.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

Or at any rate it could draw out a desperate wolf. Either way, I can't see any negative consequence to this, but I can see several positive ones.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.

Originally Posted by WythDryden

*Puts his suspicious eyes on* Getting nervous eh?

Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all.

Hey, it only takes a village to follow a clever wolf's lead into stupidity. It doesn't hurt to think differently. The fact that people agree doesn't make a thing less stupid. So if you think it's stupid, say that it's stupid, because maybe it just is.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

But then the lovers risk an easy lose. If they're in the open and we lynch one to get rid of the second Night-kill and an extra wolf vote, or just lynch them for whatever reason, they don't win. They have to be sure that IF they come out, they will not be killed OR lynched.

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.

I'm working under the assumption that they are intelligent players. The whole point of Lovers is they want to live to the end and they could care less which team wins, so yeah, they'll wait to make any allegiances until it's clear which side is winning. It's an assumption I feel comfortable being sure about.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I'm working under the assumption that they are intelligent players.

Assume nothing! Love can make anyone into a blithering idiot.

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

I think it would behoove the lions/wolves to not worry so much about the Bear right now. It's good for them to have two kills a night, for now. Could go either way, though.

I'm not sensing a clear direction for the voting yet... I shall have to go back and peruse your posts once again. We have yet to hear from Eonwe, A Little Green, and Nogrod. Are they quivering with fear in the corner (AKA doing real life things) or trying to fly low under the radar?

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

Is there a new role that reads my mind and posts for me?

It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.