WW CV: They Should Make a Movie About This! (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Now, why has Sally got two votes?

EDIT:X’d with Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, why has Sally got two votes?

Because of the mean Finnish girls.

[Nerwen]

So… Greenie votes Sally basically for banter which she finds “unsettling” (#48) and Lommy to “see how the pot stirs” (#68). Which I suppose is okay for early Day One voting; however at the time of posting it means Sally dies by default, and I find several other people more suspicious.

Dare I risk the universe?

EDIT:X’d with Cop’s vote-post.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Dare I risk the universe?

Go big or go home, and since you're probably already at home....

[satansaloser2005]

I feel Kit misinterpreting the maniac's role isn't as big of a deal as people think (though I would feel sympathy for her, having also misconstrued the nature of the role). She's still evil, of course, as she always is, but the push from Nog strangely leaves me to suspect him more than her.

Legate remains a mystery as always, but I must say I feel he has overanalyzed the maniac more than others, and his contributions about the topic strike my gut as forced somehow.

And then there is Lottie's vote for Legate, which also seems forced, like she needed to direct the lynch away from the existing candidates (not that I should be complaining). I understand the dissatisfaction that comes with seeing your Day 1 lynching options, but this did not seem like classic indecisive Lottie.


I'm uncomfortable voting for my prince so early in the game, and the same holds true for the nearly silent Shasta and Kath. The rest didn't particularly stand out to me. I'll note, however, that Greenie usually has a better excuse to vote for someone than what she gave for voting me; using my comment about Inzil being unsettling is flimsy, even for Day 1, but if she's tired and rushed, I can see such a mistake being genuine, so I'm inclined to let that slide for toDay and attribute it to rushed Day 1 thoughtlessness.


Obviously voting in a moment, but posting this and getting caught up again before I do so.

[Coppermirror]

And voting now:

++Legate

[Coppermirror]

It's quiet...

Looking at Greenie's posts yesterDay:

In #26, there doesn't appear to be anything there which might clear or implicate anyone that I can see, other than a mild "something there?" about a comment of Sally's.

In #48, Greenie voted for Sally based on the bad feeling about Sally she initially mentioned in #26. But she didn't sound very firm about it at all and described it as flimsy reasoning. If Sally is a Moviephile, that might still have been enough to get Greenie night killed.

She doesn't seem to have strongly suspected anyone at all, and she was the first to vote and have to leave. I suppose it's possible she was a trailless kill, but I can't really believe that in a village this small. There must have been something.

I'm going to have to vote early toDay, probably in the next 8 to 10 hours, since I can't guarantee I'll be around to vote in the morning or the early afternoon. I'll come back after dinner to do some analysis of yesterDay and the way the votes went.

[Thinlómien]

Only one post and it' almost 7 hours into Day2? Come on people. (I'm especially looking at you, Shasta.)

Alas, poor Greenie. I want to check her posts when I have time, because obviously taking out a potential seer would make the most sense to the wolves. I think Greenie at least had the sort of quiet and sensible tone that often gives away gifteds (even though ordos who are not the type to intentionally stir the pot or stream of consciousness post *coughyourstrulycough* might often give that vibe too.)

As for the lynch yesterDay, I'm not really surprised. Now I seem to recall ordo-Legate has recently very often been lynched on Day1 or Day2 with quite similar reasoning and schedule. Going to have a better look at the lynch too to entertain myself with the possibility that there was a wolf as a lynch candidate.

[Coppermirror]

Okay, time for me to look at the voting yesterDay.

Day 1 voting

Greenie-innocent --> Sally(1)

Legate-innocent --> Boro(1)

Lommy --> Sally(2)

Nog --> Kitanna(1)

Boro --> Lommy(1)

Lottie --> Legate-innocent(1)

Cop --> Legate-innocent(2)

Nerwen --> Kitanna(2)

Kitanna --> Legate-innocent(3)

Sally --> Legate-innocent(4)

Non-voters: Kath, Shasta (reasons given in admin post)

So the only people who attracted 2 or more votes were Sally, Legate and Kitanna, with Kitanna breaking the tie and followed by Sally with the latter bringing Legate to 4 votes. Both of the last two Legate voters were in some danger themselves because Kath and Shasta had not yet voted. Kath may be prone to being quiet on Day 1, so it might have been a reasonable bet that she wouldn't vote, though.

I can't see anything obviously suspicious about the votes there yet, so I'll post this now and try to take another look. I've got to vote within the next two hours, but today hasn't had a lot of useful discussion yet. If I had to pick right this second I would probably vote for Sally. But, Lommy's raised some other possible reasons why Greenie might have seemed Seerish. I'll read over Greenie's posts again.

Edit: crossed with Lommy

[Loslote]

So, I don't have too long right now - I'm about to head off to work - but I'll be back about five hours before DL and I'll have plenty of time to post then. In the meantime...

I don't think the wolves necessarily thought Greenie was the Seer. More likely, in my mind, they thought she was a safe kill. Not only was she almost universally considered one of the least suspicious people, she was also heavily involved in the Maniac discussion - in such a way as might have tipped the wolves off to the fact that she was not herself the Maniac. I see more evidence for that than for a potential Seer-kill.

Alright, I really do have to run. Hopefully there'll be more to work with when I get back!

[Boromir88]

On yesterday's voting:

Something rubs me the wrong way here, maybe it's this being the only comment she makes on the whole Maniac issue in a post otherwise comprised of banter. Safely noncommittal, leaving ends open, casually concerned but not really. Flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing, so

++ Sally

Greenie: Night killed. Known innocent. I might as well combine the two posts...I didn't get any seerish, at least not in her vote. Maybe she dropped a hint earlier where she seemed more certain of someone's innocence. But her last post of Day 1, if Greenie was targeted because the wolves thought she was the seer, I don't see how they would have reached that conclusion from Greenie voting for sally. Based on that post, if sally is a wolf, who thought Greenie was the seer, then sally is rather paranoid in this game. (sally 1)

++Boro

since I don't want to make a completely throwaway vote, and this way I am at least making a vote for someone who (I presume) would be still around and can make a case for himself if it became relevant (unlike if I voted for Greenie or probably Kath).

Legate: I didn't like it, but skipping over it, because there's no point anymore. Sorry, Legate, but it's no insult to say that a dead man is dead. (sally 1, Boro 1)

This is hard and it's already past my bedtime.

As I'm pretty sure there will still be plenty more lynch candidates toDay, I will not make the list longer. So I vote

++Sally

Lommy: Yesterday I thought this reasoning was pretty strange, because I'm of the opinion...no games, no tricks with voting. Just tell us who you think is most suspicious and vote for that person. It seemed with this explanation Lommy wasn't even particularly suspicious of sally, she just didn't want to add more names when the last would certainly grow. (sally 2, Boro 1)

Day 1 is really random and unpredictable, because we're taking a stab in the dark and it tends to spread out the vote. So if there's any day where my "no tricks, no games" in voting doesn't apply, it would be Day 1. This vote didn't look as bad as it did yesterday.

++ Kitanna

Starting with self-defence / martyr-role, being careful overall and also to not suspect others, hanging around but not contributing... Enough for a D1 vote where there is so little to go after - and too many reasons not to vote someone else on D1 -basis.

Nogrod: This is a weird explanation. I agree with the latter half, but don't see where he finds this self-defense/ martyr-role Kitanna played yesterday? She said to scratch her post about the maniac away because she missed what Inzil said. Unless I missed something, I don't know where Nogrod got this "self-defense/martyr" vibe from Kitanna. (sally 2, Boro 1, Kit 1)

(I voted for Lommy next) (sally 2, Boro 1, Kit 1, Lommy 1)

I'm really not thrilled with any of the options so far. I've still got a bad feeling about Legate, but I don't have anything concrete, and I'm not completely comfortable voting for him. I'd be more comfortable with him than with the other three on the table, though, so...

++Legate

Lottie: First vote for innocent Legate (and crossed with my vote). Ok as far as a Day 1 explanation goes. Doesn't feel entirely comfortable adding another name, but at the same time said she was less comfortable about voting for any of the other 3 (sally, me, and Kitanna). The vote for Legate looks ok, but at this point it's making me wonder if any of those who had votes yesterday are wolves. That is, it almost looks like Lottie knows the 3 that had votes at that point are innocent (because they're not one of her mates) and she therefor didn't care about adding another innocent (Legate) to the pile and seeing which one gets the noose. (sally 2, Boro 1, Kit 1, Lommy 1, Legate 1)

I like Legate's reasoning for (a) and (b) in post #35, but not (c) and (b). In #42, I can see logic in the reasoning but I disagree with the idea of the Maniac revealing and with the idea that it's better for the Maniac to reveal early if it's to be done. An unrevealed Maniac is a greater risk for the wolves as the game goes on. Takes time to explain the reasoning for his vote, which is good, but might even be slightly too careful.[...]
...++Legate

Copper: I'm combining one of Cop's posts with her vote post, because she didn't give the reasons when voting for Legate. She sounded most suspicious of Legate, and based on his posts on the maniac. Ok. Her analysis posts on people seemed to be mostly favoring people and not wanting to step on too many toes. Can't find that too suspicious at the moment, it's hard to form clearer opinions when it's this quiet. (sally 2, Legate 2, Boro 1, Kit 1, Lommy 1)

Hmmn. I actually do find Legate questionable but Kitanna just a bit more so, for reasons I gave at #75.

So–

++Kitanna

*universe implodes*

Nerwen: says the reasons are in #75. And it's because of Kit's misinterpreting the maniac's role. Says also that I came up with the same interpretation so the same could apply to me in hinting to the maniac. If the wolves thought the maniac was a wild card at the beginning of the day and were trying to hint to the maniac, that would be suspicious. On my end I thought a slightly new role deserved discussion and my point got sidetracked to the maniac revealing after Inzil clarified. (sally 2, Legate 2, Kitanna 2...bunch of people 1)

And I believe the universe is still here.

I think of the three Greenie is the least evil. Lommy votes so as not to throw out more lynch candidates and puts Sally in the lead, fishy. And Legate, like I said earlier I think I must have missed something, but he made mention of having a gut feeling of Sally and then dropped it immediately. Like he pushed Sally's name out there some more for people to grab, then turned around and voted Boro.

++Legate

Kitanna: self-preservation vote (so neither good nor bad). Someone should go back and check to see if what she says about Legate dropping some early ill feelings on sally after she got a vote is true. I'm running out of time. If it's true than her reason for voting Legate, instead of sally, looks better because it would be more genuine/honest, even if Legate was an innocent. (Legate 3, Kit 2, Sally 2)

Of Kit and Legate, I find the latter more unsettling at the moment.

++Legate

sally: self preservation as well, and appears to have crossed with Kit's vote. Doesn't really offer an explanation in the vote, because of the DL approaching. But she did explain in an earlier post, where she thinks there's too much of a deal being made about Kit misinterpreting the maniac role, and Legate's overanalyzing with all the different scenarios.

She also makes a good point on Lottie's vote:

And then there is Lottie's vote for Legate, which also seems forced, like she needed to direct the lynch away from the existing candidates (not that I should be complaining). I understand the dissatisfaction that comes with seeing your Day 1 lynching options, but this did not seem like classic indecisive Lottie.

I want to see if I've crossed with anyone (please...please...have some posties). Then I'll have to vote in an hour. It's much earlier than I wanted and will be primarily based on yesterday's votes - more on them to come.

[Coppermirror]

Quick suspicions/analysis

Nerwen: at #77 she had some suspicions of Kitanna, and maybe some suspicions of Legate. She seemed to think Lommy looked more innocent than not. At #85 she wasn't entirely happy with Greenie's vote but said it was okay for Day 1.

If Nerwen was a Moviephile trying to save a packmate Sally there, I'm not sure she would have been so obviously unhappy with the Sally vote. Same goes for Kitanna.

Sally: Her reasoning on Day 1 seemed fine to me, and nothing pinged me about her tone. But, if Greenie was killed because of sounding Seerish, what she said about Sally looks the most likely. I disagree with Lommy; I don't think Greenie's wording was clear about exonerating Boro.

Loslote: Her tone in her vote post seemed a little vague to me. Maybe slightly off. It could just be Day 1 blues, though. From toDay, it looks as if she's suggesting that it's more likely the wolves were trying to pick a safe, non-Maniac kill for Day 1 than to go for the Seer. I don't think this makes sense.

Kitanna: Posts with a summary of the Day. Disagrees with Greenie's suspicion of Sally. Thinks Legate looked off. Wonders why Sally was getting so much attention. Thinks Nog was making mountains out of molehills about her, Lottie and Legate's banter. Although not happy with Nog, she's more concerned about the three people who were suspicious of Sally (Legate, Greenie, Lommy), whom she finds fishy.

Her reasoning seems consistent there and brings up points that nobody else has made. Nothing jumps out as especially suspicious yet, anyway.

Lommy: Has been active toDay. Other than that, not a lot of change since yesterDay.
Nogrod: No posts since I last commented about him, I think.
Shasta: Ditto, and I'm worried about his lack of activity.
Kath: Also worried about lack of activity.

Boro: He's suspicious of Nerwen's tone and not so much of Sally. With the low amount of posts he's had so far I'm finding him very hard to get a feel for.

At this point I think I'm going to vote Sally since that's the only lead I have for wolf catching right now and I have to get some sleep. Most likely I won't be back before the deadline.

++ Sally

Edit: crossed with Boro

[Boromir88]

Nogrod: Probably the strangest reasoned vote yesterday...that is I'm scratching my head wondering where he got the self-defense/martyr vibe from Kitanna. It doesn't appear he'll be back before I have to go, so it's not strong enough to vote for Nogrod today, particularly since I think there are more suspicious votes yesterday. He's on my radar though, until I see more and get an explanation.

Lottie: For reasons mentioned earlier, and I agree with sally the vote for Legate looks forced. By that I mean I agree that it looks as if Lottie doesn't care about the outcome. Sally seems to think Lottie made the vote to steer attention away from someone who already had votes...I don't see who that could be though, because sally would be playing quite the bold wolf if she pointed this out last night about wolf-mate Lottie's vote, while sally was also in the lead at that point. She would have no reason to protect me, unless she's trying to just set me up as one of her mates. So, then maybe Kit? With Kit getting a few suspicions based on the maniac mix-up it's possible Lottie would try to get attention away from people voting Kit and push up Legate for all of his lengthy analysis about complicated scenarios.

Whether it's that, or in my opinion, looking like she put another innocent name on the list and didn't have a care who ended up being lynched yesterday...because none of them were a wolf. Either way, it's a safe and suspicious vote.

Nerwen: Pretty much the same reasons as Lottie's vote, in that her vote created the tie between Sally, Legate, and Kit. I agree with Lommy's point today that is rather bold if Nerwen and sally are mates. So, she's not trying to protect a mate (she voted Kit, Legate is innocent, and it's a stretch to see her and sally as mates).

Kit:. I'm even more rushed now than I thought, so I will just refer to my previous post asking if what she said in her reasons voting Legate accurate. It warrants further watching but not going to vote for Kit today if I don't know and likely won't be able to read her response.

++Lottie

I have to go all on the vote yesterday...and I have to go now. Lottie's vote looked the worst yesterday.

[Kitanna]

I have to get to work soon so I am looking only at vote posts/reason posts ('cause they're not always in the same post) for the moment. I'll have more time while on break at work to dig deeper though.

Greenie: Votes Sally for basically D1, vague feelings. With Greenie now gone was she targeted because she voted for Sally? Or because she hadn't really laid down any suspicions for anyone else?

Legate: Votes Boro because something was off about him, and because

and this way I am at least making a vote for someone who (I presume) would be still around and can make a case for himself if it became relevant (unlike if I voted for Greenie or probably Kath).

So giving Boro a chance to redeem himself.

Lommy: Votes Sally which if I remember correctly she had the same vague reasoning of "feels off" that Greenie had. So if the wolves attacked Greenie because she left very little trail with her reasonings, the same could be said of Lommy. So why Greenie and not Lommy?

Nog: Votes me because of of self-defense and for not throwing out suspicions. Though I hadn't throws out suspicions at the time, there were others in the same boat. Also said because I was there but not contributing. I was on and off all day, but didn't really have time for a lengthy post until about an hour and a half before the end of day.

Boro: Votes Lommy for reasons not really stated in the post. I went back a few and it looks like his main point against her was the Maniac reveal suggestion.

Comes off trying to divert the topic to gifteds revealing which is rarely ever good.

Lottie: Votes Legate for vague feelings of wrongess. Had she mentioned him prior as a suspect?

Cop: Votes Legate for reasons stated in a previous post, but in Post #74 he doesn't really say much other than he liked some of Legate's Maniac reveal reasonings and didn't like the rest.

Nerwen: Votes me for my misinterpretation of the Maniac role. Puts it down as a possible attempt for a wolf to bring over the Maniac to their side.

Me: I vote Legate because of his vague suspicions of Sally, but then for turning around and voting for Boro.

Sally: Votes Legate because obviously she's not going to vote herself and finds Legate more suspicious.

Legate remains a mystery as always, but I must say I feel he has overanalyzed the maniac more than others, and his contributions about the topic strike my gut as forced somehow.

And then there is Lottie's vote for Legate, which also seems forced, like she needed to direct the lynch away from the existing candidates (not that I should be complaining). I understand the dissatisfaction that comes with seeing your Day 1 lynching options, but this did not seem like classic indecisive Lottie.

She could have had a case for Lottie too, but maybe didn't want to throw her vote away and voted Legate instead. Just looking at the times I'm pretty sure Sally cross-posted with me.

I think that's all the votes from D1.

Mildly suspicious of: Sally, Lommy, and Cop based on their votes. I'm going to check out their posts to get a better idea of how I feel about them.

Edit: forgot to put Lottie on my suspicious list.

[Nerwen]

Regarding Greenie: yes, if Sally is a wolf then Greenie's vote would have looked alarmingly Seerish- but we cannot, at this point, assume that was the case. To say "wolves always try to get the Seer" is an over-simplification- it's generally the priority, of course, but not always, and often the baddies don't have much to go on early in the game.

I will also say that I don't care for the way certain players are building their suspicions toDay. Boro (#100) seems to be saying he thinks wolf-me was trying to save Sallywolf (echoing Lommy at #99) and suspects me enough to consider voting me. Then at #104 he doesn't think Greenie was killed for looking Seerish anyway but apparently still continues to suspect me for some reason, while rather suddenly switching his vote to Lottie... Maybe I'm taking this too personally! but I really don't like it.

Edit: x'd with Kit.

[Nogrod]

Uh... Even if I did have some suspicions of Legate on D1 as well, it's sad to see him as a dead ordo as we could have had use for his mind.

About Greenie's death: without any closer scrutiny to the particulars of it, I'd remind people again (like someone did already) that the seer is the kind of "obsessive" default-target for the wolves on all times - and only if they have no clue whatsoever can they settle on a "no trail" -kill. And even going for a "trailless kill" they most probably try to sense some seerish vibes, even if very weak... So I'm going to check that possibility myself as well, later on the Day.

Also a funny / interesting note: Kitanna was concerned about the three people suspicious of Sally aka. Legate, Greenie, and Lommy. Now two of those are dead and they were ordos... Funny fact, but also makes Sally look pretty suspicious.


And by way of shortish explanation as both Kit and Boro have questioned it. I noticed that there were three people who started their posting / banter with something you might call pre-emptive self defence. It could be innocent as well, of course, but as D1's go you have to pick even every straw you can.

So when Lottie says "I'm always lynched on D1, please don't be so cruel as to do it again" (paraphrasing surely is mine), she is both reciting a fact but also laying an emotional claim on all the other players by reminding us of that fact - to not vote for her if there is a hard choice between several candidates with no better reasons (which is probable on D1).

Kitanna did more or less the same thing - even if I do have to stand corrected that she did it as a reply to Lommy's fun-scenario - but the kind of "Woe me! Not me an innocent victim again!" (paraphrasing partly mine) reaction surely is having the same effect aka. bringing an emotional level of pressure not to vote her in a case of evenish non-reasons to anyone in particular.

Now that is something a wolf would love to do - and surely, an innocent might do it as well. But it's just that some people do it and others don't. And it did catch my eye - even if it's not a big thing. A D1 piece in pile of other D1 little things you have to orient yourself with.

Legate started a bit differently, but underlining his innocence by way of banter anyway in his very first post. He turned out innocent so enough of that.


At the moment I'm more or less confused about different possibilities but will come back in the evening and try to contribute more.

EDIT: X'd with Kitanna

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Regarding Greenie: yes, if Sally is a wolf then Greenie's vote would have looked alarmingly Seerish- but we cannot, at this point, assume that was the case. To say "wolves always try to get the Seer" is an over-simplification- it's generally the priority, of course, but not always, and often the baddies don't have much to go on early in the game.

I had somehow skipped this post... compare to what I said in my last post (and these are relatively close to one another).

The only thing that stops me from suggesting that Nerwen is here trying to save her fellow-wolf Sally is that it would be pretty bold to try it that openly...

It is true the baddies don't always (or even usually) have much to go on early in the game, but it doesn't change the fact that they need to consider every hint however small to get the seer (and it depends then on how much time they have to make an effort to find any).

There are two totally different games for the wolves: one where there is a seer and one where there is not. In the first they can be caught by chance how witty or crafty they are, on the latter they can roam freely and it's up to their skill to win. It's a no-brainer they prefer the latter...

[Nogrod]

I though I would only come back to this game later but then got curious about Greenie's posts enough to check them before leaving this for a while...

Originally Posted by Greenie

Sally also mostly banters this far, and calls Inzil's rules clarification "informative, yet strangely unsettling". Something there?

Now that is something that stands apart from Greenie's first post which has comments on all the players. Now the formula of making a list on the very first post is among other things a seerish thing to do: if I'm dead the next Day you can go back to my first post and find my dream from there.

Clearly Greenie wasn't the seer, but that first post alone might have alarmed the wolves if Sally is a wolf. And well, she also voted Sally...

Although, her vote comes with a lot of second-guessing:

Originally Posted by Greenie

I don't feel comfortable voting anyone at this point given how little has happened, but I'd feel even less comfortable abstaining. The only thing that's caught my eye so far is nothing but a hunch, but here it is - [add Sally's quote "informative, yet strangely unsettling"] - Something rubs me the wrong way here, maybe it's this being the only comment she makes on the whole Maniac issue in a post otherwise comprised of banter. Safely noncommittal, leaving ends open, casually concerned but not really. Flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing

So if Sally is a wolf they are pretty nervous - and so even the way Greenie framed her vote in all this "don't feel comfortable" and "flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing" has been interpreted by them as a seer trying to cover her knowledge.

Hmm... this actually leaves me more baffled I was before I checked into this. Is Sally a wolf and they thought that Greenie overdid the backtracking of her own "revelation" on post 1 in the vote-post, or are the wolves trying to frame Sally for our second lynch, or was Greenie - and all others - so far from the wolves that none stood up for them to be even a scantly possible seer and they just took her by random?

I don't see the third one as an option. But trying to kill the seer or framing a possible D2 lynch?

I mean, if we miss it toDay and the wolves manage their kill on the Night to come it will be 5-3 toMorrow - and then it will be more or less win-or-lose with a strong voting block of three votes on one side knowing how to co-operate (it would actually take only one innocent's wrong vote for them to bring home the spoils?)...

So framing is also a possibility.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Although, her vote comes with a lot of second-guessing: So if Sally is a wolf they are pretty nervous - and so even the way Greenie framed her vote in all this "don't feel comfortable" and "flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing" has been interpreted by them as a seer trying to cover her knowledge.

Hmm... this actually leaves me more baffled I was before I checked into this. Is Sally a wolf and they thought that Greenie overdid the backtracking of her own "revelation" on post 1 in the vote-post, or are the wolves trying to frame Sally for our second lynch, or was Greenie - and all others - so far from the wolves that none stood up for them to be even a scantly possible seer and they just took her by random?

I don't see the third one as an option. But trying to kill the seer or framing a possible D2 lynch?

It was thrown out there (by Greenie I think) that the maniac might act seerish to draw a night attack. So it is possible Greenie was just a random innocent pick who hadn't pegged them and they didn't want to risk a maniac playing as seer? Seems unlikely, but not outside the realm of possibilities.

Let's say two villagers pegged two of the wolves yesterday in their posts and voted for them. The wolves are left wondering, is one a maniac? Is one a seer? Is it just dumb luck? Obviously it's in their best interest to try to nab the seer before that person can reveal. However, if they think the maniac could be masquerading by dropping "seer" hints and just got lucky they'd be more hesitant on attacking that person. This is a stretch, a big one, because it relies on the wolves playing a "wait and see what happens" game, which could end up being pretty reckless of them if they think they have the seer.

If it was the case, it could mean Greenie really was just a random innocent. Unlikely, but not impossible.

There's also a few players who haven't really talked, who would have been good trail less kills if they went for random innocent rather than seerish. Which makes me think maybe it was a frame job?

[Thinlómien]

If Sally, Kitanna and Nerwen are the wolves I'm likely to die of laughter. Seriously, what is this trio and their interactions? And why do they keep popping up in people's top suspects? Like, maybe even too much for them to be actually guilty, or then they are the most transparent wolf pack ever. Hmm, whatever the case, I do believe at least one of them is guilty, maybe even two.

[Kitanna]

Sally
First two posts were mostly banter. Though in her second post:

That was informative, yet strangely unsettling.

Is this not the post that drew Greenie and Lommy's attention? Or at least Greenie's. I don't see anything too suspicious here, so I'm not sure why it drew attention. If this is the wrong post, let me know.

Her third post is about Lommy's plan being too risky. It's a reasonable post and one a wolf could use to show the village "hey I'm not afraid of a Maniac on the loose", could also be a villager not wanting to have a known innocent out there, especially one who is hazardous to the wolves.

Fourth post clarifies her understanding of the Maniac. She originally thought it was a more random role than Zil meant it to be.

Post five clarifies the post Greenie found suspcious enough to cast a D1 vote for. Banter and not much more.

Sixth post continues more on the Maniac and why it is smarter to stay silent.

Seventh and eighth and ninth, more banterish.

Tenth, says that people are making a bigger deal on my misinterpretation of the Maniac than it warrants. She proclaims me evil, but let's be fair that's what we do to each other. But she find Nog more evil for pushing me forward.
This post also mentions Lottie and Legate. Like I said earlier she probably didn't want to throw her vote away on Lottie or even Nog.

Twelfth, votes Legate based on her previously stated suspicions. Thjs vote is less suspicious then I originally thought. Since I think she cross-posted her vote with mine it looks like self-preservation, which an innocent is as likely to do as a wolf. So the vote tells me less than I had hoped.

What I find more odd/nefarious about her D1 posts is actually her wish not to pursue Lommy's plan. But this is a mild suspicion at best because Sally wasn't the only one to say this and there's not enough else to make me think she's evil at this point.