Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

Eönwë, if you're innocent here, would you be willing to actually say what your role is?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Eönwë, if you're innocent here, would you be willing to actually say what your role is?

Just an ordinary boring villager.

[Eönwë]

Also, something to think about before I go for the night: Considering that Boro was probably the wolves' guess for Echo's Night 1 dream, it's not unlikely that a reasonable amount of Boro suspicion is suspicious itself.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

Oh, honey, that's cute. Really. It is.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'd thought Lottie was the Seer...

Yeah, I was pretty panicked over yesterDay. Knew I'd blown it. Whoever you are, thank you, Ranger darling for saving me.

I could've drawn this out, seen how it all went down, tried to find the other sorcerer...but the thing is, I already know both of them. :P

Shasta must be a sorcerer, what with his false reveal, and last Night, my dreams proved fruitful and I discovered that the final sorcerer is Greenie.

Lommy, dear, you were right all along.

My other two dreams were of the innocent Nerwen and Steve. I did not dream the first Night - I was confused and thought I couldn't. Oops!

[McCaber]

*monocle pops out*

Good lord! Now this has gotten interesting.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought that might happen. Well, that's all to the good then!

Now that we know that the last two sorcerers are Eonwe and Lottie (hi, dear, thanks so much for showing up), we simply have to decide which one is Saruman and kill that one first. I'm assuming, at this point, that the wolves obviously know which is which - otherwise, what's the point of Lottie fake revealing? - and thus, are either going to:

A: Try to get me lynched (a tactic they appear to be going for), or, failing that -

B: Try to get the non-Saruman wolf lynched to throw dissent into the ranks.

Lottie's fake reveal points at Eonwe being Saruman, in my opinion - given the amount of pressure I put on him being lynched, she would have had to try something in order to attempt to elongate the game. Unfortunately, Lottie's blown it with her dreams. Let's take a look -

Firstly, Lottie claims not to have dreamt on Night 0. Isn't that convenient? (By the way, my Night 0 dream was Nerwen. Old habits die hard, I suppose. )

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.) In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius.

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

In any case, my other dreams were Night 1 Lommy, Night 2 Boro, and last night's Eonwe. Cue me being so very annoyed as one of my known innocents proceeded to lynch another.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Either way, we need to get whichever of Eonwe and Lottie is NOT Saruman today. I'm obviously a goner tonight (unless neither the Ranger nor the Wolves targeted me last night, which could be possible, considering I was being gunned for fairly hard), and so probably won't be around to ferret out the new wolf should we be wrong.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.)

Nerwen Night 1, Steve Night 2.

In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius.

Hesitant to save Steve? I voted the way I did purely for that reason! I didn't suspect Boro. I didn't have an opinion on Boro. But I knew Steve was innocent, and I knew Boro had a 1/5 chance (roughly, assuming Cop and Cabbie to be innocent) of being a sorcerer. Therefore, I thought he would be a better lynch than Steve...but that doesn't mean I felt at all okay with lynching someone even though I didn't actually suspect them.

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

Actually, I thought Lommy had figured out that I was the Seer. I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1, and immediately after Lommy completely dropped her suspicion, not only of Nerwen and Steve, but also of me. I decided, since I thought she knew I was the Seer, to dream of Greenie rather than her - if Lommy-knowing-I-was-the-Seer was a sorcerer, I'd be dead before sunrise anyway. If Lommy is innocent, then I'd better dream of someone else. As it happens, I was paranoid and she thought the Seer was Steve. Ah well, it all worked out in the end!

EDIT: xed with Shasta

[Nerwen]

No surprises here– my treasure’s “Well, that’s torn it. Very nicely done,” remark (#280) pretty much had to come from either a wolf preparing for a fake reveal– or the Seer– and I’m inclined to think he’s the latter.

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Well, I can think of one reason– the wolves might have been convinced Steve was the Seer, about to out one of their number, have failed to kill him last Night due to Ranger-protection, and thought this was the best option left them. Okay. That’s what we’ll have to look at if Steve turns out innocent, or something else turns up, or whatever.

In the meantime, I think Eonwe should go on toDay’s lynch-list.

–Oh yes, I’ve seen your numbers-based arguments, Steve, but the problem, from the village’s point-of-view, is that they would apply in the case of any alleged wolf revealed by any alleged Seer.

By the way:

Originally Posted by Steve

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

EDIT:X’d with Steve, and Lottie’s competing reveal. Well, well!

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Maybe they thought I was the seer, like Lommy did. Even though I'd finally just stopped suspecting Greenie. Or maybe that was actually the plan. Since I'd stopped suspecting Greenie , I wouldn't dream of her and then after getting lynched toDay, my change of opinion on Greenie could easily look like the dream of the Night before.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

It means that whether or not the real seer believes me, they should come out now if they know the other wolf, because the other one would have to be either me or Shasta. Of course, she did, which is great.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Saruman would appear as any other sorcerer.

So, it looks like my earlier fears were not unmerited. And since Sally has decided not to tell us whether or not the wolves knew whether or not the seer to see who was Saruman or not, we're at an even greater disadvantage than we would be otherwise. Because as well as deciding whether the wolves are bluffing or double-bluffing etc., we also have to decide whether they knew, or thought we thought they knew etc. about how the dreams would show up. It's probably best to not think about the latter part too much though, because we'll probably never know.

I think what it boils down to is that if they're playing it safe, Greenie is Saruman. Shasta has already exposed himself and there was a chance that the Seer hadn't already found Greenie (she hasn't really appeared on many people's suspicion lists so far). But since they've already gone this far by risking this tactic this early (I mean, if they'd been able to stay alive until toMorrow, they'd have a much greater chance of success- unless maybe they thought the real seer was ready to reveal?), I wouldn't rule out the other option either.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

Nice try, most-likely Saruman!

edit: x-ed with Lottie

[Eönwë]

Also, doesn't anyone else see the gaping hole in Shasta and Greenie's logic?

It's quite obvious that if Lottie and I were wolves, the only reason for her to come out of hiding would be if I were Saruman, because otherwise she would get to use her Saruman powers once I was lynched. So, clearly the village would then go to lynch me anyway, and her coming out of hiding would just be damaging. It just doesn't make sense.

[McCaber]

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Well, I couldn't very well say you were innocent explicitly. I was still trying to hide when I posted that - I figured that consistently supporting you over Eonwe was a subtle enough hint without not having any "reason" at all to think you might be a wolf. So I tried to find something that wasn't completely off-the-wall.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by McCaber

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf.

How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?