Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Cop re: #231 - The biggest point in McCaber's favor is that no one has stepped forward to contradict him. If he's not the other Lover, there's no reason for the real other Lover not to speak up.

On to my heart and Eonwe -

The first salvo is Eonwe at #232.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:
What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day? Considering the normal depth of your analysis, this looks like it could be a sneaky way to make it look like you didn't consider the situation fully to look more like an innocent. I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from. And Holby voting for you as she died does not help.

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

edit: x-ed with Cop

Considering that Eonwe posted three times at the beginning of the day when one would have sufficed...

In any case, taking this argument post by post I can see the merits of thinking the wolves would rather not have killed new, confusing Echo on the very first night over no-trace Inzil. However, leaping to such a concrete suspicion of Nerwen is just that - a leap.

Nerwen responds -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...


I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.


You mean Holby..., right?

My dear one is pretty known for her skills at analysis at this point - it's an odd sort of game if she doesn't do at least three. Given that, I'm not sure why Eonwe finds it a wolvish trait.

Moving on, Nerwen continues -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh yes–

I haven’t finished with you, yet, Mr Eonwe.

This is what you actually said, earlier in the Day (my bolding):



Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

I took the (considerable) trouble to examine the evidence in some detail, in the course of this demonstrating why it didn’t actually support your conclusions.

This, according to you, is a highly sinister course of action, not to mention useless, since–

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

Here Nerwen points out a seeming contradiction in Eonwe's logic - calling the evil Holby dream as "least likely", then turning that on its head and saying it was "most likely".

Eonwe responds -

Originally Posted by Eönwë

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.


Ok, I know it was late and my wording was less than clear, but the two paragraphs are obviously separate scenarios. In the first one, Holby being dreamt is implicit- why would they fear Echo otherwise? In the second, it's meant to be how a wolf-Kath would approach it, and obviously for her it would be better to get people to believe the wolves thought it she that was dreamt.


The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):




Ok, I've actually had a bit of a change of heart about this. I don't think you were posting just to look like you were being helpful. With all the confusingness that is Echo, we need as much clarity and certainty as we can get. Sometimes it is better to be safe than sorry.

What does whether or not the kill of Inzil was aimed at taking out a gifted actually matter in the current situation? This first paragraph really smacks to me of wolvish thought-process. Not something I normally put much stock in when considering someone's guilt or innocence, but this is really blatant.

I'm not understanding the second paragraph much, either. It would be better for Kathwolf for people to believe Kath was dreamt? Or Holby? If Kath, it doesn't make any sense - either way, Kath is basically outed as a dreamed wolf.

And then Eonwe proceeds to back off entirely. An innocent refocusing his energies, or a wolf realizing he's bit off more than he can chew? At the moment I'm leaning towards the latter.

Nerwen responds -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure. You’re under no obligation to agree with my reasoning. That’s not the point, Steve.


I am aware that you were describing two separate scenarios. However, you said:
"If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely”
Here, yes, you’re talking about your double-bluffing scenario (where Kath is a wolf killing Echo in order to look better). But your statement that Kath would have been the supposed Seer-Echo's “most likely dream" is a general one, not specific to that scenario.

Therefore, the contradiction remains.

Now, again, you don’t have to agree with me on why Echo was killed. I could be completely wrong. Despite the evidence, it may be that the wolves killed Echo for some other reason entirely. Who knows– except them, of course. What I do not appreciate is being heavily attacked simply for analysing the posts of a dead player, and especially for examining them in the light of scenarios suggested by you yourself.

Yes, you’re trying to back away from it all now– but you were ready to scream “sorcerer” at me before. On that note, I particularly don’t care for that little bit you threw in about, “Holby voting for you as she died”. No, not just on personal grounds– I'm actually wondering now if that was something cooked up overnight– “I know, let’s try and pass off Holby’s vote as wolf-on-wolf, heh, heh..."

Nothing too much to say here, this is pretty solid. Although I don't really know if I buy the whole "wolf on wolf" thing.

The radiant moon finishes by voting Eonwe -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

True– but I have been burned quite a few times through thinking “a wolf would never vote like that”.

Anyway, since I can’t put it off any longer

++Steve.

This may look like retaliation, but even before he made that odd attack on me, I’d been uneasy about him because his speculations on the Night-kill seemed rather forced, as though perhaps he was just trying to get the village to waste time on Echo's posts. And the attack on me also seems forced– as I said, perhaps from a wolf looking for a way to capitalise on Holby’s dying vote.

That’s one way of looking at it. To be fair, another is this: Innocent Steve is highly suspicious of Greenie and Cop, to the point of seeing my Echo-analysis as somehow a defence of them (which it isn’t– I merely argued against his theory that the kill itself actually points to them), leading him to suspect me as well.

Sorry I don’t have anything better, but nobody else has been around most of the Day, so I just haven’t have much to go on.

EDIT:X’d with moddess.

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

Of the two, I do feel Eonwe is more suspicious. However, that last post of Nerwen's does have traits of "oops, my counterattack worked too well, I hope he's not mad."

[Thinlómien]

I'm having the strangest of feelings that Nerwen and Eönwë might both be wolves after all...

[Thinlómien]

Fine at the moment
McCaber - I believe his claim and his behaviour supports his innocence.
Coppermirror - let's see how it goes with her claim.
Kath - Echo's death makes her possibility of her guilt ignorable for the time being.

Starting to feel concerned about (mostly because I've been taking their innocence almost for granted this far)
Boro - I had a good gut-feeling of him earlier, but I've grown suspicious now that he's been posting less. I have not forgotten my bororadar isn't infallible anymore so I shouldn't trust mere gut-feeling.
Greenie - she is kind of sneakily avoiding all suspicion why demonstrating no great signs of innocence either. Worrisome.
Shasta - his relaxed and humorous countenance first made me trustful, but now it all too much reminds me of evil!Shasta who's happy because he's avoiding all suspicion. He's a tad too gleeful to be innocent.

Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).


Great, yesterDay I didn't suspect anyone, now I suspect everyone. Let me gather my thoughts.


edit: xed with all

[Thinlómien]

Now I'm actually pretty sure 2 of our remaining baddies are among Shasta, Boro and Greenie. Not because they look particularly guilty, but because the others look quite innocent.

Nerwen still seems to think like an innocent and - whatever crazy ideas I might have entertained - her row with Eönwë looks more innocent-on-innocent than anything else.

The same reason goes for Eönwë's innocence. Also, I'm going to repeat the effort to save Holby once more. Plus, that last post of his now was probably the most innocent sounding post I've seen the whole Day if you exclude McCaber's posting.

Lottie's last couple of posts sound very innocent too, plus like I said I'm going to momentarily give her the benefit of doubt for starting the Holby-wagon.

Kath, McCab and Cop are all quite clear for the time being.

Up next: who of the three remaining ones look the most fishy aka who are the monsters and who is the maaan.


PS. I know I'm saying different stuff in consecutive posts right now but I'm thinking furiously and basically writing all my thought processes here. Hope it's enlightening or at least entertaining.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In any case, taking this argument post by post I can see the merits of thinking the wolves would rather not have killed new, confusing Echo on the very first night over no-trace Inzil. However, leaping to such a concrete suspicion of Nerwen is just that - a leap.

Well, she didn't seem to consider that part of the situation at all. And since she went through all the posts, I felt like such a massive oversight might not be unintentional. And it's one that could be defended in a way that looks innocent (note that she didn't defend it- she just refused to acknowledge that it existed). It needed to be challenged.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

My dear one is pretty known for her skills at analysis at this point - it's an odd sort of game if she doesn't do at least three. Given that, I'm not sure why Eonwe finds it a wolvish trait.

My point is not that she makes the list, it's that she misses stuff out. And a post-by-post analysis becomes a sort of 'official' overview of someone (to an extent). Which is not good if it's lacking, and could be an intentional way for a wolf to hide some important point in plain sight by brushing over it or mentioning it lightly and never getting back to it.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm not understanding the second paragraph much, either. It would be better for Kathwolf for people to believe Kath was dreamt? Or Holby? If Kath, it doesn't make any sense - either way, Kath is basically outed as a dreamed wolf.

The point is that if they really thought that Echo was the seer, it's more likely they thought Holby was dreamt.

If they didn't really think Echo was the seer, because he/she was acting that way, they could make it seem as if they thought he/she actually was the seer. In this circumstance, championing the opinion of them thinking that the dream was Kath would be more beneficial.

In the first scenario, Kath is irrelevant. In the second (admittedly far more elaborate), she's bought herself a lot of innocence.


As for this:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

What does whether or not the kill of Inzil was aimed at taking out a gifted actually matter in the current situation?

This is the full exchange:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

edit: x-ed with Greenie

[McCaber]

I'm back from work, and the unrelenting heat has just about fried my brain. Hopefully I can find something to work from in the next half an hour.

[A Little Green]

Great timing to only think of this this late, but I think I managed to put my finger on what bothers me about Boro. I know he's short on time and all that, but the time he does have he seems to use on who he doesn't find suspicious rather than who he does. I would think an innocent Boro, if in a hurry, would rather concentrate on possible wolf-suspects than elaborate arguments on why someone isn't suspicious. It strikes me as fishy.

Thus, giving the squabblers the benefit of the doubt for toDay (chiefly because I can't decide which of them looks worse),

++ Boro


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's 260, bolding

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Great timing to only think of this this late, but I think I managed to put my finger on what bothers me about Boro. I know he's short on time and all that, but the time he does have he seems to use on who he doesn't find suspicious than who he does. I would think an innocent Boro, if in a hurry, would rather concentrate on possible wolf-suspects than elaborate arguments on why someone isn't suspicious. It strikes me as fishy.

Thus, giving the squabblers the benefit of the doubt for toDay (chiefly because I can't decide which of them looks worse),

++ Boro


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's 260, bolding

Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun.

No worries, Boro, her sister's gunning for me because (as far as I can tell) everyone else looks more innocent? I dunno.

[Eönwë]

Well, one of my key suspicions about Greenie was her connection to Cop, but now that I'm considering Cop innocent, most of her other stuff seems pretty good to me.

I don't really find Lottie particularly evil- I haven't really seen anything yet that makes her guilty, despite what people are saying about her.

And it looks like time's running out so I'll stop there and hopefully have more time to express my opinion toMorrow.


However, I'm not too sure about Shasta

Won't lynch:
Lommy
Greenie
McCaber
Cop
Lottie

Might lynch:
Shasta
Nerwen
Boro
Kath

[Eönwë]

Well, I have no idea what the total vote count is, but just to be sure:

++Boro

[Eönwë]

If Boro turns out to be a sorcerer, I think it will be worth it to look at Nerwen toMorrow.

edit: fixed bolding

[Thinlómien]

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd be the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?

Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.

[Eönwë]

So that's

Nerwen -> Eonwe
Boro -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Boro

so far

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen 1, Eönwë 1, Boro 1, right?

Out of these I prefer Boro, but I'd still like Shasta dead better. If Greenie and Shasta are indeed in cahoots and we end up lynching Boro because Greenie started it I'm going to feel sick.


edit: xed with Eonwe

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.

Mmm, nope, not really. I don't particularly care for her apologetic votes, but I don't find that in and of itself a reason to think her suspicious.

++Eonwe

[Thinlómien]

++Boro

I will honestly apologise if you're innocent but I'm currently pretty sure Eönwë is innocent.


edit: xed with Shasta - ha, I will laugh if you two are wolves and Greenie is innocent, but I'll also hit my head against something if all four of us are innocent.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

Nnnnnnn. I can kind of see where you're coming from, but I'd feel uncomfortable lynching someone on such slim evidence. I do agree with you that Boro, Greenie, and Shasta look most likely to be our two (two? two) sorcerers (or you for that matter, though I'm agreeing with you so heartily just now that I'm more inclined to look at the others.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Well, she didn't seem to consider that part of the situation at all. And since she went through all the posts, I felt like such a massive oversight might not be unintentional. And it's one that could be defended in a way that looks innocent (note that she didn't defend it- she just refused to acknowledge that it existed). It needed to be challenged.


My point is not that she makes the list, it's that she misses stuff out. And a post-by-post analysis becomes a sort of 'official' overview of someone (to an extent). Which is not good if it's lacking, and could be an intentional way for a wolf to hide some important point in plain sight by brushing over it or mentioning it lightly and never getting back to it.


The point is that if they really thought that Echo was the seer, it's more likely they thought Holby was dreamt.

If they didn't really think Echo was the seer, because he/she was acting that way, they could make it seem as if they thought he/she actually was the seer. In this circumstance, championing the opinion of them thinking that the dream was Kath would be more beneficial.

In the first scenario, Kath is irrelevant. In the second (admittedly far more elaborate), she's bought herself a lot of innocence.


As for this:

This is the full exchange:



edit: x-ed with Greenie

Point A: "Refused to acknowledge" is a bold statement. I feel a better one might be "thought irrelevant" - your concept of importance and Nerwen's aren't necessarily the same, which is why some of the things you say come off as accusatory.

Point B: That's fair, but again, how can you be as sure as you appear that Nerwen left something out intentionally?

Point C: The second scenario obviously depends on Kath being a wolf. Given that (and given Nerwen's point about Echo living an extra day after calling out Kath), I'm fairly certain at this point that the first scenario is the correct one. While I applaud the way you look at things from every angle here, I do have to wonder how much of it is "finding something to post to look helpful", which is a common wolf trait.

[Boromir88]

Don't really want to rush myself...but I love the random "I'm concerned about Boro...but I have no idea why I should be" occurances that simultaneously pop up after a few days. Nothing seems to ever stop that from happening. Although, the way Lommy is talking her head around in circles makes me feel pretty good about her.

Both of Shasta's votes aren't very good, but someone rushing to not be mod-fired and apparently with a serious lack of sleep making them. And since Holby pointed out not liking Shasta's abstaining vote in Day 1...I'm not sure if a wolf would do that against another mate.

Normally Day 1 debates over strategy and game mechanics turns out to be between two innocents...but with fewer people than the start and this about Echo being killed it's looking like some sorceric paws are in the frey.

I thought Eonwe was a bit too gun-ho at the start of the day. And that can look wolvish if it looks too much like wolf conversation from the previous night. But Nerwen's later reactions look bad too.

The thing I kept noting is she hasn't seemed to be as annoying in prodding and questioning people on everything. She did with Lottie some, and then today got on Eonwe...but then started backing off. Ermmm..today

++Nerwen