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#1 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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In fact Cop (not me) first pointed out the problem very early (#7, the fifth post of the game), so there was no time for anyone to “elect to remain silent” (or to give themselves away through knowing too much). This, in turn, makes me wonder if the village really should be giving either of us “innocence points” just for having drawn attention to the fact.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#2 | |||
Leaf-clad Lady
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I'm off to do some rereading of yesterDay and see if I discover anything of consequence.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#3 | |||
Leaf-clad Lady
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A couple of points from yesterDay:
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." Last edited by A Little Green; 08-25-2013 at 04:08 AM. Reason: typo |
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#4 | |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Real life's got in the way a lot toDay, so my analysis of people is going to be later than planned, but won't be at the last minute.
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In any case, I'm pretty sure that Holby was talking about your post at #80, where you said you agreed with Lommy's post at #78, and placed your vote. Your most recent post before that one was at #76, where you said you were getting both innocent and guilty vibes and so didn't know about me, so your post at #80 represented a quick swing to stronger suspicion. It looked pretty wagon-jumpy to me, but currently I still can't tell whether it was an innocent wagon-jump from you or an opportunistic one. |
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#5 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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First, my apologies for the badly formatted post(s), I'm at work and using my dumbphone to play ww.
After yesterDay I've made the mental note not to vote Legate on Day1s anymore as he turns out innocent disappointingly often, however fishy his posts. When I have a computer I'll definitely look at yesterDay's votes properly, as competing bandwagons are always interesting. As for Inzil's death, I agree with Nerwen's assessment that you can get an overall gifted vibe from his posts. Still N's zilalysis #116 struck me as a little wolvish in the way that it delves a bit too deep into wolf logic, especially what she said about wolves misinterpreting Zil's talk about invisibility.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#6 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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To be honest, Echo looks quite innocent to me, but I will not judge until s/he explains her/himself a little more. Echo, why did you vote Kath (other than that she's a witch)?
Good to see more of Shasta, who is fishing mild aww points by talking about my lovely voice (without saying it's lovely, gah, if I could quote with this phone I'd just have quoted what he said and commented 'aww' instead of writing this silly rant). Anyway, I'm taking Shasta's mistake about Legate as an innocent blunder rather than a cheap wolvish ploy.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#7 | |
Pile O'Bones
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 20
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#8 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Echo, you mean Holbytlass? Do you have any particular reasons apart from a gut-feeling to suspect her?
Personally, I think Holby looks fairly innocent although her unexplained suspicion list yesterDay was weird to say the least.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#9 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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![]() Analysis - McCaber Nothing to say here, but at least he's finally arrived. And - I see he's claiming to be the remaining innocent lover. My initial assumption is that he's probably telling the truth. If he isn't, the remaining one will know he's guilty and could and would come straight forwards so we can decide which one to lynch. Analysis - Boro Posts #60, #61, #69 - nothing to judge guilt or innocence on there. #93 - Thinks something is off about Kath. I agree with the point about post #54, but I don't know about the others; I can't claim to have a good grasp on Kath's usual behaviour. Will have to come back to this points later on when analysing her. He votes Kath. May have been influenced by Echo's very firm and now retracted statement? There doesn't seem to be anything especially suspicious about Boro there, but he's said so little that that doesn't mean much. At #132 he still suspects Kath and lists a few others too, and will come back with reasons. I'll have to wait to see those. It seems to me at first glance that Boro and Kath are unlikely both to be sorcerers. There were still people who hadn't voted when Boro placed his one, although he could probably have guessed that I was likely to place a vote for Legate. Boro wasn't going solely on feelings but had some reasoning to support his vote, so people might reasonably have followed it, which means it was likely to be a genuine attempt to get Kath lynched regardless of his guilt or innocence. By similar logic and looking at the voting record, Lottie may be even less likely to be part of a sorcerer team with Kath, as she placed the third vote and that put Kath in a fair bit of danger. Either Holby or Steve's votes could have been sorcerous ones in order to save her (...but could also have been attempts to lynch innocent Legate). Anyway, I'll come back to those people later. Analysis - Holby I am a bit curious about Holby. Is there anyone who can venture an opinion about whether Holby is acting in a usual way for her in this game? As Holby's a long-time player returned after a long absence, it was unlikely that people would want to lynch her on Day 1. She could have been relying on that. And she seems to be having fun early on Day 1. It's good she gave a list of suspicions at #33, but no reasoning was given with it, and there's some doubt about whether and to what degree it was serious. At #91 she doesn't like having any abstaining voters, especially on Day 1. Which is fair enough. Says she doesn't like Legate and Greenie wagon jumping on me after Lommy's post. Seems to have missed noticing that Legate's post was probably cross-posted and that he probably didn't see Lommy's or even the post she was reacting to. It's hard to draw a conclusion from this. Analysis - Echo At #49 tries to vote for Kath, and actually does so at #66. Sounds very, very firm about it. #67 - when Inzil asks why they voted for Kath based on something Kath didn't say, replies that it's a misquote "or perhaps im just saying this???". The next Day they come out with a small list of suspicions, ending again with a mysterious statement about how "if i die today or tonight you will get no further". Goes on to make some other vague statements about suspicions. At #126 explains that the Kath vote was due to a reason they later decided against but that their suspicion of somebody else was stronger. Lommy asks if that person is Holby. At #128 Echo explains that the problem was with Holby's vague posts, especially at #128, and makes some sort of point about syllables. As several people have pointed out, Echo could very well be the confused, innocent newbie they claim to be. ToDay, Echo's reasoning appears a bit better and clearer than yesterDay's, which could be a natural sign of feeling more confident about the game. But if Echo is in fact a newbie sorcerer, they went all of the first Day of their first game without having spoken to the other sorcerers beforehand, and so their behaviour might change after the first Night. I don't think there's been a major change in the sort of way they've been talking. This doesn't mean I trust Echo, but I'm willing to give them a chance for another Day. |
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#10 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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My day has gotten away with me - I'd hoped to have a fair bit of time for analysis, but here we are a little more than three hours to the deadline and I'm just now getting around to anything.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#11 |
Pile O'Bones
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 20
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all this talk of reasoning...makes my head hurt (quite litterally) i voted kath under mild suspicions ...and due to other people talking about her,...makes no sense to vote for someone if your going to be the only one....(like voting for the third presidential party),.....and its not easy voting when your in the back of a moving car thinking the DL is in minutes,..so i hope very dearly that is enough reasoning.
![]() i will try to muster up a better reasoning of why i suspect Holby,...right now the best way to put it is a very strong gut feeling..... |
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#12 | |
Everlasting Whiteness
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#13 | |
Pile O'Bones
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 20
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of course you probebly want an explenation for that last sentence,...ill get back to you on that. |
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#14 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Time is getting on and if I'm not careful or anything extra comes up in real life we'll be at deadline before I've finished my analysis for the Day, so I'm going to go ahead and post a quick list now.
Probably an innocent: McCaber. If he's not, then the real Lover could easily come forward and will probably do so toMorrow at the latest. If Legate was the real other Lover, then a wolf doing a fake reveal would have to be relying on either the real Lover already having left for the Day (for example, Nerwen or Boro) and the sorcerers killing them in the Night, or for it to be Inzil. That's got to be the maximum risk scenario for the sorcerers, and it makes sense for the Lover to come forward ASAP. Feeling okay about Shasta - I'm finding his posts and logic easy to follow, and have yet to notice anything suspicious about him. This doesn't mean he's innocent, of course. Unknown and very confusing: Holby - I don't have nearly enough information about her, although her later posts are clearer than the first ones. Echo - Ditto. Neutral Boro - Seems fairly well reasoned, and hasn't said anything suspicious of note, but my goodness he could seriously be going under people's radar. Lottie - Likewise could be going under the radar, except that some people have pointed out that they think she seems like an observer. This could be true. Both Lottie and Boro are pursuing what I think is sensible wolf behaviour and should definitely not be written off as suspects. Concerning Lommy - Would have been on the "suspicious of" list, but if she was a sorcerer, I don't think she would have lessened her suspicion of me in her post at #178. Rather, I think she would have taken the opportunity to become more suspicious. But there are still things I'm worried about, and she could just be a very clever sorcerer. Suspicious of Kath - I don't like the way she dismissed Boro's vote as throwaway. Nerwen - didn't vote on Day 1 and didn't make a lot of firm suspicions. I've still got an uneasy feeling about her. Greenie - Seemed to bring up Lommy earlier on in an irrelevant way. It's unlikely that both of them would be wolves. I can't help but note that most of the people I'm most suspicious of have been pretty loud. I don't like this. This is one of the natural problems with Werewolf, because it's entirely possible to set a bunch of noisy innocents together to tear themselves to bits while the real wolves are quiet in the background. Really really really worried about: Eonwe - he didn't post much yesterDay, and, probably due to time constraints, didn't complete his analysis to the point where it was up to date. There's too little info about him. If he's a sorcerer he really hasn't left much of a trace at all, and that is dreadfully dangerous. But there's nothing to support a vote or draw firm suspicions from. Edit: cross-posted since Lommy at #178. |
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#15 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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There is a possibility I'm doing something incredibly stupid here, but I don't really have other suspects, except that something probably needs to be done about Holby or Echo or both at some point if they keep confusing everyone at this rate! But I won't vote for anyone on Day 2 solely for being confusing. Anyway, have to get going now, so
++ Copper EDIT: x-ed with Lottie, Lommy and Eonwe
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#16 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it the vote count is:
Boro -> Lottie Nerwen -> Coppermirror Kath -> Coppermirror (2) And with Steve, Greenie, Lommy and Eonwe various different degrees of really suspicious of me. I would really hate to be lynched by six people in a row because of how easy it would be for sorcerers to hide in that. Edit: crossed since my last. |
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#17 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Oops, Steve and Eonwe are not different people. Scratch that.
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#18 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Eonwe, if you've decided on a vote, if it's me I want you to tell me it in advance before you send it.
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#19 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Now this is serious.
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Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place
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#20 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Deadline is in ten minutes. Try not to kill any- wait.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#21 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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++ Holby
edit: x'd with Lottie on the previous page.
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
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#22 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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++Holby
I'm suspicious of Holby enough to vote for her to save myself. |
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#23 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Echo tossed and turned, unable to rest for fear that the sorcerers would make tonight's sleep eternal. Such fears were only heightened as the sound of a rock skittering across the land caused Echo to look up. "....Hello?"
"....Hello?" "Uh....hello. Who's....who's there?" There was nothing for a moment, and then Echo heard a soft voice from beyond the darkness. "Uh....hello. Who's....who's there?" "This isn't funny!" Echo called, glancing around to find the source of the voice. "This isn't funny!" "This isn't funny!" Echo blindly fumbled around until fingers met wand. The implement's tip lit up, but the glow was immediately snuffed out by a cloud of darkness. "What are you doing?" "What are you doing?" came the reply. The breath of the speaker warmed Echo's neck, but just as quickly the sensation was gone. "We're here," the voice rasped, "to ensure that we have no problems with repetition." "Repetition?" "Repetition...." "No, really, repetition?" Echo said, hesitantly sliding backward. "What do you mean repetit- Oh. Oh dear." "Oh dear." "Oh de- No, stop it. To business. We're here specifically to ensure there is no repetition of last dusk's events. And for that, we'll need to eliminate any, shall we say, remaining echo of suspicion." "Echo of suspicion." Echo jumped backward, but the spark from the attackers' weapons lit the area just long enough for Echo to see two robed figures before everything went black. ~~~~ The next morning, as the group awoke to find Echo's bedroll unoccupied, they failed to notice that one of their number had acquired the now silent Echo's wand. "One more of us down," sighed one of the wizards. "One more of us down," whispered a sorcerer, dropping Echo's wand into a bush before solemnly joining the others for breakfast. Casting: Shasta Kath Nerwen Cop McCobbler Lottie Green Echo Boro Lommy Steve Cast aside: Sally (moddess) Morsul (collateral damage) Legate (wizard) Dun (wizard) Holby (sorcerer) Echo (wizard)
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
Last edited by satansaloser2005; 08-26-2013 at 11:37 PM. |
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#24 |
Laconic Loreman
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Now that one, I definitely think was the sorcerers hoping to get the seer...hehe.
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Fenris Penguin
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#25 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Since I got pushed into saying what I did at #196, I think I'd better clear the matter up in case that ends up inhibiting the reasoning of innocents toDay. I'm either the Protector Wizard or the Pact Mage. I'm not the Aura Reader. I'd rather not say which of the other two I am at this point unless it's strictly necessary.
I'll be back later - I've been working on an analysis of Echo, and I intend to do one of Holby too. |
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#26 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Well, I wrote up a big analysis of Echo, but there's no point in posting the whole long thing when there were so few conclusions to be drawn from it.
Echo's Day 1 vote for Kath is something that would have looked seerish to a Sorcerer-Kath, provided that the wolves actually knew that the Aura Reader got a pre-Day dream. The sorcerers would have been sensible to kill Echo off then, and didn't. They could have relied on Echo being a newbie who was just bluffing, or on people not believing the claims, but it would still be fairly risky and suggests that Kath is less likely to be a sorcerer, although by no means conclusively. On Day 2, Echo was basically tapdancing on stage and singing that they were the Aura Reader, Holby was a sorcerer, and they would be killed for knowing too much. Overall, people's reactions to Echo were very similar and consistent. There doesn't seem to be much to learn from it. Holby, Day 2 Lottie thinks Holby is alarming but that it may just be her style, and that it's easy to hide things with a style like that. Nerwen thinks Holby is "Not necessarily evil, no– but not exactly helpful, either." Shasta responds to Kath's annoyance about the lists and says after taking a second look, it seemed that Holby meant she suspected everyone but McCaber. He also thinks Holby's Day 1 vote looked panicky, and he wanted to know why Legate was more suspicious to her than Kath or me. This could either be a sensible train of thought or some subtle wolfy action, believing that Holby could be in trouble very soon. Lommy asks Echo about why they suspect Holby, and thinks that Holby "looks fairly innocent". Hard to draw a conclusion from this here, as that would have been a sensible post for anyone. Boro lists Holby among those who are "pinging on my suspicions". At #133, Holby seems to suggest a Nerwen-Lottie pack. Given that she later voted for Nerwen and that she should have been able to see her eventual doom tap-danced out by Echo by then, I have to wonder if she was just trying to throw suspicion on innocent(s) or if it was subtle protection of Nerwen from a packmate. Holby's so confusing it's hard to tell. #137 - Boro explains his suspicions of the Day, and of Holby says she's behaving with "textbook looking sorcery". He votes Lottie later in the post. If he's a sorcerer, that was actually pretty sensible, to voice suspicion of a wolf who would be going down perhaps the next Day, but not try to do anything to get them lynched on that particular Day. #138 - Kath tries to reason out Holby's Day 1 vote, and thinks that if Holby was a sorcerer she might have been trying to save a sorcerer-me. #147 - Lottie says "Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused." #151 - Greenie says of Echo and Holby that they're confusing and "I don't know what either of these two are doing!" #181 - Kath says "I am very unhappy about" Holby. This is pretty consistent with her Day 1 opinion. #184 - McCaber says he'll vote Holby, who's suspicious. I don't think he could be a sorcerer, so there's no need to analyse that vote. #188 - Lottie puts Holby in her "no read" category and says if she's isn't voting for Kath she'll vote for one of her no reads. This seems sensible enough. #194 - Steve lists Holby in his "What?!" category. #200 - Lottie votes Holby because she doesn't find the other two contenders all that suspicious, she already has one vote for her, and she wants to put forward someone who has a chance of being lynched. This looks a very sensible, innocent vote. But, it would actually be sensible for a sorcerer to vote this way too, if she wanted to secure people's opinions about her innocence even if it got Holby killed. Echo and McCaber were already very likely to vote for Holby. Technically Lottie cast the first vote, but in a way it was the third one. I think she's either innocent or a possible Saruman. After that, votes for Holby come from McCaber, me, and Echo. |
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#27 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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I honestly am not sure any more. You've really made me reconsider your guilt/innocence. The problem is that I don't know how bold you are as a wolf.
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#28 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2003
Location: The Party Tree
Posts: 1,042
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++ Nerwn
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Holby is an actual flesh-and-blood person, right? Not, say a sock-puppet of Nilp’s, by any chance? ~Nerwen, WWCIII |
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#29 | ||||||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Now I get to do the quoting and awwing thing: Quote:
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Anyway, I'm currently entertaining thoughts of a Coppermirror-Echo-Nerwen pack, but it makes little sense as Coppermirror would hardly have told a packmate on the thread to go invisible as she could have very well said it during the Night phase. But Coppermirror and Echo could be packmates based on what Cop speculated about packmates giving advice to Echo last Night. So I don't really know. edit: xed with Kath's last
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#30 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Or could be the case for Cop herself. She was acting a lot more suspicious yesterDay, and toDay seems quite different. She could have been re-evaluating her style on her own, but it's also very possible that some of it is the product of a Night-discussion. And if I'm going to run with the Greenie-Cop pack (I know I said Lottie as the third, but that's more because she seems suspicious in her own right and I haven't had time to analyse her with regard to the other two), there are definitely a few times when I've got the feeling that Greenie is gently brushing something Cop says or does aside than contesting it.
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#31 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Seem pretty good
Shasta Kath Lommy McCaber (for now) Don't particularly suspect Boro Something dark may lie beneath Nerwen Lottie Suspicious Cop Greenie What!? Echo Holby
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#32 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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And one more thing, for people in general. I've just thought of something which worries me. Correct me if I'm wrong, but there isn't any actual proof that Legate was the other Lover, is there? We know that there's no Night kill the Night after the Lovers reunite, and that means that hasn't happened. But if the other Lover is still alive, they already know who McCaber is because he's come forward, and maybe they could put off reuniting until an opportune time, as long as they were still both alive.
I'm concerned about what it might mean for the village if Legate wasn't the other Lover. Can anyone offer their thoughts here? I'm quite unsure about this topic, having not played in a game with Lovers in it before. |
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#33 | |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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#34 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Seriously: if Legate wasn’t the other lover, then McCaber’s lying his head off. Why would the other lover trust him (as in your scenario)?
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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