Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Zilalysis

#3.

Originally Posted by Zil

Until further notice, everyone but me carries a presumption of guilt. Confessions will be entertained.

There's two here I haven't encountered before, Holbytlass and naturally, Echo. Does that mean anything? Not really.

Comment: Lottie has suggested this might have been seen as a Seer-hint. This seems a very odd thing to say, as Seers rarely just hint at their role without leaving specific clues– this is in fact likely to be counter-productive. Possibly she means, not a deliberate hint, but the unconscious result of a Seer’s natural pre-occupation with his role, which I could perhaps buy into– though only if taken in conjunction with later comments (see below).

#4. Reminds everyone to turn on Invisible mode.

#6.
Banter with Coppermirror. Makes some remarks about how “all must remember to use [their powers]” and how we should hope “all come to their senses”.
Comment: Much later (see #53) Zil explains this as having referred to the invisibility issue, but I suppose the wolves could have missed this and taken it as a sign of the gifted mindset.

#24.
Quoting Coppermirror (#7, #12), agrees with Greenie (#13) that Cop’s ignorance of baddie-numbers “could be” a sign of innocence. Likes Greenie. Points out that Lovers are not necessarily true friends of the village. Mentions that his reason for telling everyone to turn invisible was that he already had noticed someone wasn’t. Agrees with Legate (#15) that Saruman will be hard to distinguish from other baddies. Wonders if Saruman “will appear as such to the Seer anyway”.
Comment: Following on from my previous comments, here his apparent pre-occupation with the Seer-role might have got wolfish attention.

#31.
Replying to yours truly (#30), thinks it might have been useful to see if anyone used the Rule of Three to justify a vote.

#36.
Again following Legate (#27), is curious whether Saruman will be identified as such after death. Wants Holbytlass to explain the “obvious” reasoning behind her suspicion-list at #33.
Comment: As do many of us, I believe... Meanwhile, could his speculations about Saruman have looked like a Seer worried accidentally betraying himself, or something like that?

#48.
Concerned by interactions between Kath, Lommy and Legate. Thinks there’s a “reasonable chance” one is evil.

#53.
#53. Demands to know why Echo (#49) is voting for Kath “based on something she didn’t even say”.

#55.

Originally Posted by Zil

Echo is either a rushed newbie, or a nervous wolf-cub.

#56.
Responding to Kath (#54), who saw his comment (#6) about all using their powers as a possible hint to fellow wolves, explains that he was still talking about people using invisibility mode.

#70.
Tells Coppermirror that DL is within two hours. Finds Echo “explanation” of her vote (#67) “confusing”.

#73.
Wonders whether to follow Lommy’s vote on Legate.
Comment: This is said is such a banter-y fashion that I actually can’t tell if he was seriously considering it.


#83.

Originally Posted by Zil

You lot sure don't make it easy on Day 1, do you?

I'm back and forth trying to decide whether I think Kath or Legate seems dodgy, then there's Lottie, who seems to be looking for a reason to suspect Kath. It mainly looks odd in light of Echo's very strange vote, though.

#85.

Originally Posted by Zil

I can't bring myself to vote for Echo or Holby, due to first-time and long-time away considerations. Both have been downright bizarre up to this point, though.

#89.
Votes Lottie, quoting her statements on Legate(#88).

Originally Posted by Zil

Maybe it's just the end of the workday and week, but I find this confusing.

Anyway I should probably go ahead and vote, since I'm about to leave and don't know if I'll be able to make it back before DL.

++Lottie

A vague uneasy feeling, coupled with the apparent doublespeak above, and a forced-feeling suspicion of Kath.

Conclusions: I think there is a good chance that Zil’s unusual level of activity, coupled with his notably careful-yet-authoritative posting style, flagged him as a likely gifted. This, with the fact that no-one seemed to suspect him (for once!) seems to me a sufficient reason for him to have been chosen. As for whether the wolves thought him the Seer (as suggested by Lottie and Cop), rather than any other role– well, maybe, but the “Seer-hints” are tenuous, and it should, anyway, have been quite clear that if he was one, he had dreamed no villain yet. They could, of course, have been afraid he was about to do so, meaning we should probably take a closer look at those of whom he expressed suspicion– Lottie, Kath, Holbytlass and Echo.

What this was probably not: an attempt to frame Lottie (cf. Coppermirror #106). For that to work, the murdered player needs to have behaved in a way that would, in theory, make him look like a major threat to the player being framed. Preferably, he needs to have said things that could have made him look like a Seer who had dreamed her guilty already. There’s none of that in Zil’s posting.

EDIT: x’d with Echo and Lottie.