Arda Cup Football 2013

[Boromir88]

GROUP E

Erebor
FRIENDLIES:
-Minas Tirith (W2-1)
-Mordor (W1-0)

Two wins against inferior teams in the friendlies doesn't say much about Erebor, other than what we already knew. They'll be tough to beat for any of the teams in this group at least.

Their glaring weak link in the back is Thorin. His hot temper has seen him sent off the field too many times. He's not as much of a morale killer as Gorlim, but still it's all the same being red-carded makes your team play a man short. Interestingly enough in 2010, it was Thorin (playing for Rivendell then) being red-carded in the match against the Misty Mountains that allowed Misty Mountains to battle back and get the draw (keeping Rivendell out of the playoffs that year too). Girion's a solid defender that should be able to keep the other offenses in check, but if he can't keep his dwarf under control, Erebor could very well have an early exit. Beorn was nothing short of amazing last year, it seems he's found his true niche on the team.

A lot is going to depend on if Bolg can command the mid-field as he's capable of doing, but he's been up-and-down his whole career. But if the ball gets to the trio of attackers up front, any one of them are capable goal-scorers. Smaug had his best year last year, but even in the years when the dragon's teams got eliminated in their groups Smaug is hard to keep off the scoreboard. Smaug's history shows he's not a FW who is likely to give you a dominating single game performance. He's more a consistant, 1goal/per game type of scorer.


Eriador
FRIENDLIES:
-Anduin (W1-0)
-Barrow Downs (W3-0)

Their competition wasn't any better than Erebor's, but somehow the way they didn't allow a goal as well as still scoring more than any of the other teams in Group E, shows that Eriador is the class of the group.

Elrond's skill and mastery speaks for itself. Hands down the best GK in the tournament. It'll be interesting to see how the defense does compared to last year with two new players on defense (Aragorn and Arwen). Athletically I don't see why they wouldn't do well, and there won't be any problems fitting in with Elrond's system of team and unity first. It doesn't seem like they have anyone that can hold down the aerial threats of Smaug and Scatha though. That task will fall upon Gil-Galad being one of the Noldor though, he should be able to handle the beasties (including Durin's Bane).

As I had to point out to AKM last year, Eriador's MF did their jobs well last year. They're not flashy, they're not going to score a brace of goals, but the rangers work great together. The addition of NogWight won't hurt them either, since he's of like mind...the whole we're stronger together thing Elrond preaches.

Isildur is a noticeable step down from the Witch-King and that will probably hurt Eriador when they're up against tougher competition in the playoffs. Isildur's career is marked by mediocrity (-0.6). We're rather kind saying mediocre but last year really was his worst year, but even before that he was mediocre. He should improve under this team with the stronger mid-field and Glorfindel is top class, but his peak seems to be a few assists and 1 or 2 goals. Speaking of Glorfindel though, he's sort of comparable to Earendil, a well rounded attacking MF/FW...plus he's got an Arda Cup title when playing for Gondolin in 2010.

Misty Mts
FRIENDLIES:
-Imladris (D2-2)
-Barad Dur (L1-2)

Here's a team it appears no one in the media is giving much of a chance too, and we don't understand why...

Their defenses aren't as bad as they might appear in the friendlies. The sons of Elrond still bitter over their mother's capture and torture were clearly playing in a ramped-up revenge mood. And Barad-Dur is a quality offense. Now you're probably saying "wait a second...what about Wilderland and Erebor...both contain dragons!?" But aren't dragons cold-blooded? Anyone else seeing a match-up nightmare with Gwaihir the "Windlord" and Caradhras capable of blasting strong gusts of wind and ice, on the Misty Mts? Well...TTN is predicting one.

The bigger question will come on how many goals they'll be able to score. Probably not good enough to score on Eriador (but the same applies to Wilderland and Erebor). Durin's Bane was called the most over-rated player in 2009, but his game has improved since making the switch to FW. Durin's Bane mind is always on the attack, and it's definitely tough to contain the Balrog. However, when Durin's Bane is contained, it's always easy to frustrate him where he'll recklessly throw away possession. As a MF this is bad, because you've got to back track and play defense, this is less important as a FW and so he's really in the most suitable position.

Azog and Narvi are decent enough, but the rest of the MF is lacking. Seeing as the Misty Mts were not kept off the board in either of their friendlies (and that against a still tough Imladris defense, plus an improved Barad-dur defense) they shouldn't have problems getting chances against Erebor and Wilderland. Those will of course be the key games and as mentioned they already have the evil tactics to get Thorin sent off the field. Durin's Bane may be reckless, but Thorin's recklessness is more costly because he's a DF for Erebor.

Wilderland
FRIENDLIES:
-Dwarves Utd (D0-0)
-Isengard (W2-1)

The defense is not as strong as it appeared in the friendlies. It doesn't take much to keep Dwarves United off the scoreboard, and with Saruman directly calling Radagast a coward, Radagast was inspired to prove his meddle. Truth of the matter is though, from Gandalf's own words, Radagast doesn't have much courage and he'll need it if Wilderland hopes to stop Smaug and Nazgul #7. Then there's Durin's Bane who's just ruthless enough to send elves and armies of dwarves flee in fear (and even Gandalf nervous). The rest of the defense is entirely wooden and Oropher's shown reckless stupidity when his leadership comes under question.

There are many question marks in the mid-field...we'll just have to way and see what the first-born can do. They are prone to wander off the straight road though we'll see if that's applicable on the pitch. Having a Nazgul only ever helps a team, they're all around dependable players. But the wraith will be expected to lend its effort to the attack, which is clearly the strength of the team.

Scatha and Thranduil are reunited and they worked well together playing for Mirkwood back in 2008-09. Their WAR for those two seasons, Scatha +1.9, Thranduil +1.2. They'll have to get back to that old form playing together once again. That's more of questionmark we place on Thranduil, because of all the dragons, Scatha has consistantly performed the best.

Projected Standings:
1. Eriador
2. Misty Mountains
3. Erebor
4. Wilderland

GROUP F

Minas Tirith
FRIENDLIES:
-Erebor (L1-2)
-Gondor (D2-2)

AKM will have you believe that last year they were a team that only advanced to the playoffs because they played in a crummy group. Their group was weak, but the facts are also once in the playoffs...they went INTO Angband, and came out with a victory. Let's take a brief tour of our Arda Cup history and 1st round playoff games hosted by Angband:

2008. Fornost loses 0-2.
2009. Romenna loses 0-2 (and Morgoth wasn't even on that Angband roster, as he was playing for Valimar that year)
2010. Gelion loses 0-2.
2011. Tol Eressea loses 0-1. (Not even the mighty Valar Ulmo could go into Angband and beat Morgoth)

2012, was the first year a team went to Angband, for the 1st round playoff, and beat Morgoth's team...and that was Minas Tirith. The White City was not a fluke last year, nor the product of benefitting from a bad group. And they will not be an easy snack for any team in this group.

Having said all that, gearing up to play 1 match against superior talent is a lot different than trying to sustain that adrenaline and energy against 3 teams...all with superior talent. Plus they play a much different game than Angband. Tirion and Nargothrond will just plain wear down and out run your defenses. Tol Eressea plays a very similar style to Minas Tirith, but they just do a better job at it. So it's a cruel reality for us in the White City, Minas Tirith doesn't have talent to advance from this group...but don't underestimate them. Nor underestimate their ability to give an amazing single game performance that can shuffle the cards in this group and impact which 2 of the 3 others go through.

Nargothrond
FRIENDLIES:
-Armenelos (D3-3)
-Anfauglith (W2-1)

Nargothrond, by appearances, looks to be in better form this year than last. Even if their defenses will still leak big time and Orodreth is not a shut-down GK...WAR tells us he was still a better keeper than Nargothrond attempting to shuffle Beor and Barahir into the position.

It's all going to rest on how well can the FWs hold the ball in their opponents half, and keep up the pressure, because Nargothrond's own mid-field and defense won't be able to do much. This will be a brutal fight to see which 2 can make it out of this group. Nargothrond's style is better against Tirion's who appears to have switched to a more balanced game then their straight out offense when Miriel and Nerdanel were with the team. It's not a good style to play against The Sea or Minas Tirith...because they will defend, defend, defend,..defend with all 11 behind the ball...and defend some more...then hit you with a counter, which Nargothrond's defense will be completely incapable of stopping. So, it will depend on if Orodreth can get a few stops.

The Sea
FRIENDLIES:
-Valimar (W1-0)
-FC Valinor (D0-0)

The Sea's game is simple...they're not going to change it ever and it's a strategy that works fantastic in group rounds, but not extremely successful in the playoffs. We should clarify, not successful because of the way the current roster is built.

Bottomline with this team is, they will always have 11 players defending and it's going to frustrate offenses like no other defense can (I mean they quelched Arien's fire and then not even FC Valinor's forwards could put one in). And unlike Dwarves Utd, Tar Minastir is a much better, more proven forward, than Legolas. Tar Minastir is capable of scoring 2-3 goals a match (maybe not in this system, but point is, the chances he scores at least 1 goal in a game are very high.) He performs better in the group and tends to shrink in the playoffs, however.

Taking a look back at the make up of Vinyamar's 2010 team...you might ask, well how can Ulmo's style not be successful in the playoffs? They were silver-medalists! Yes, but they had Tuor, Penlod, Duilin, and Idril as well. All good at keeping possession but also scoring goals. And there's the problem with this Sea team, only Tar Minastir can be a reliable scorer. The rest of the midfield, great at keeping possession...can't turn that possession into goals.

Tirion
FRIENDLIES:
-Gondolin (W2-0)
-Angband (D1-1)

We are making the picks in this group with very little conviction or confidence...because as much as we look at Nargothrond and think they have a better style against Tirion...we look at Tirion and see their balanced approach is much better against The Sea and Minas Tirith. So, it's just going to be fascinating seeing how this all turns out.

Defensively we (yes) still love the pick up of Caranthir, and that should only benefit Amrod and Amras...who weren't ever able to lead defenses on their own, but should get along fine with Caranthir.

The real question for Tirion is, just how is Tirion going to be able to get the ball up to their FWs...consistantly. Without sacrificing their defensive effort by having to bring Caranthir up, or sacrificing their offense by moving Finwe back to the MF. Mahtan's got a powerful strike, but he's not a possession guy. And well the other mid-fielders are questionmarks. There's no doubt Finwe and Aredhel can score (and also hold the ball up to get Mahtan, Rumil and Caranthir - when necessary - involved), but we can see this being a problem for Tirion.


Projected Standings
1. The Sea
2. Nargothrond
3. Tirion
4. Minas Tirith

[Boromir88]

GROUP G

Angband
FRIENDLIES:
-Hithlum (D2-2)
-Tirion (D1-1)

Angband's got skilled players at key positions, so lets start with Carcharoth. Carcharoth's a solid goalie, the wolf had one terrible season (2010) when Thangorodrim was kept out of the playoffs. However, I attribute this to Thangorodrim's hyper-aggressive constant attack approach often left Carcharoth alone and vulnerable. The wolf will take bad angles and is prone to making poor decisions but its reaction and athleticism is great, and can make up for those poor decisions (most of the time). When protected by Morgoth's more defense-first scheme, the wolf performs much better (around 75% saves).

Moving to the defense, Morgoth is actually probably a better mid-fielder, but when he's had the mind to move to defense he's quality there too. His Balrog defender is just a classy defender, and model of consistency, accumulating a WAR of +2.9 over his 5 year span at the position. Uimuiyan is clearly the unknown, but the cat's quickness and agility should match up well against other quick FWs.

The Easterlings always play hard for Morgoth, but they are prone to making big (and quite costly) mistakes. The mid-field is going to struggle, because they'll have spurts of playing well and making sure passes get up to Telvildo and Ancalagon, but then they'll just have a bad turnover or foolish penalty...forcing Morgoth, the Balrog and Carcharoth to try to make up for the mistake. Which they are of course able to do, but not all the time.

Ancalagon and Telvildo are an interesting combo of power and speed which should really be a pain for a lot of defenses. Telvildo's more of a passer, but the cat can tunnel its way beneath defenders legs (and many have tried to protests that when catbeasts intentionally trip up defenders by running underneath a player, it should be called a foul) and get close range goals. Ancalagon, like Smaug is pretty much a goal-scorer only. Although the dragon's got a couple different ways to get them, tough to contain in the air but can also blast in long range power shots with its tail.

Angfauglith
FRIENDLIES:
-AC Beleriand (L1-2)
-Nargothrond (L1-2)

They lost to 1 title contender and 1 playoff quality team...so not awful, but there's something that just wasn't clicking with this team during the friendlies. Their defenses were facing 2 of the top attacks in the league this year, but still surrending 4 goals on Ungoliant and some Balrog defenders, and they won't face offenses that deadly in their group, but it's still telling us something isn't working with the way the team was built.

The MF is pretty weak, although they likely won't make any major gaffes like Angband's mid-field, are they good enough to work the ball through TIG's, Imladris' (and even Angband's MF) to their pair of star strikers? They'll have to if they want to advance, but that's the problem we see with this team.

Of course when Gothmog and Ecthelion do get the ball they're going to put up goals, but only 2 goals in 2 games for Angfauglith means they're not seeing enough of the ball because of a weak mid-field unable to give them enough chances.

Imladris
FRIENDLIES:
-Misty Mts (D2-2)
-Arnor (D1-1)

The competition they've played in the friendlies is not nearly the level their opponents played, so they've had 2 good results but it doesn't show they'll be able to contend with the 3 other teams in the group.

Varda is good enough to shut down the best scorer on any team, particularly the one's with evil hearts will flee from her bright, shining power, but she can't defend everyone by herself. And the other defenders are ok, but definitely beatable...particularly seeing they'll have to try to stop Ancalagon, Telvildo and Gothmog, Ecthelion, and then a bunch of wolves, vampires and wights. Maybe if they would just shout "Elbereth!" that will be enough to get into the heads of the baddies, but that seems to only work on the Nazgul.

The mid-field is more solid than Angband's and Angfauglith's, Arahael and Lindir are capable of feeding passes to Elladan and Elrohir, and scoring by themselves on occassion. The insane raving of Figwit fans seems to be on the minds of some, much to their annoyance, but Imladris is the displaced team in this group, going well away from their protected Vale and into hostile territory, so they likely won't get any crowd advantage (even though the Figwit fans are notoriously loud)

Elladan and Elrohir just aren't worth their caps. I mean their numbers are comparable to Tar-Miriel or Morwen, who are perfect when they're in a system as the 4th or 5th offensive option, but not as the attackers expected to carry an offense. Elladan and Elrohir will have to carry the load but it's a burden too big for them.

Tol-In-Gaurhoth
FRIENDLIES:
-Doriath (W3-0)
-Havens (W2-1)

If we hailed Angband as having great talent at key positions, TIGs talent looks even better. ShastaWolf back between the posts has been a solid keeper for the Isle of Wolves for several years running now. A pack of wolves in defense, phantomwolf one of the best assist-wolves in the game...then InzilWolf and Thuringwethil up front? Phew...where is the weakness?

It's going to be if this team is capable of not shooting themselves in the foot. Their friendly performance suggests they have been able to player smarter without losing any confidence in their own inate skill. I won't be a true believer (that is put them to win Group G) until I see it when the games matter more and pressure rises. I think they'll play with enough anger and vengeance from last year's disappointment (and missing the playoffs for the first time) to advance (and also be an extremely tough out in the playoffs)...but I just can't put them over Angband.

Arrr...this group is driving me crazy because TIG has it all to be a championship team this year, yet still might not make it out of their group if they revert to old habits.

Projected Standings:
1. Angband
2. Tol In Gaurhoth
3. Angfauglith
4. Imladris

GROUP H

Anduin
FRIENDLIES:
-Eriador (L0-1)
-Shire-Bree Utd (D1-1)

This is another group that's driving me crazy. Anduin appears to have everything to win this group easily, but going through our WAR numbers there are a lot of holes that can be exploited by the other teams in this group. And if they couldn't be Shire-Bree in the friendlies, then you can rightfully ask can they beat anyone in this group?

Let's start with defense, now Celeborn is a solid defender, and you can actually look to take him over Fram if you're so inclined. Fram's numbers as a defender are average where Celeborn has a little more experience and playing with Rivendell's defenses in 2008 and Lothlorien's in 2011 turned out to be the best Elven defenses (and therefore one of the top defenses in those respective years). Felarof had a good year in 2009, playing for Rohan but his numbers have steadily declines and they're even worse when he's not playing in his home environment. Leaving Minalcar as the weakest link and he's quite a weak link (-0.8 WAR, over 2 years).

Some may shout this is hometown player bias but the fact is, Boromir is in his best position. As an attacking MF Boromir II has had his best years, when he's been in offenses that look for Glorfindel, Aragorn, or Feanor to take up the scoring. When it's just Boromir he comes up way short, but he's done well in the MF when there's other viable options. (We'll make note that Haldir is flat out horrible in the position he's in (-2.2 WAR)...Leod is decent, primarily his good numbers come from one explosive performance in 2011, but taking out that single game he's pretty average).

The team's success will depend on if Grimbeorn and Eorl can get the job done. Eorl, like Felarof is a dynamite performer when he plays for Rohan. But his 1-season away from home (2011) he was a shell of himself and played with no heart. He'll have to find someway to play with the passion he has in Rohan, otherwise Anduin will be left behind in this group.

Arnor
FRIENDLIES:
-Barad-Dur (D0-0)
-Imladris (D1-1)

The low budget squad has still managed to put together a competitive team. 2 draws against teams with larger budgets and probably tougher competition than what they'll face in this group.

Arvedui at goal is decent, he's had some very good games going against Angband and the Valar, but also some stinkers. So his performances are quite varied, which means he's not championship quality, but he's good enough to make sure Arnor doesn't lose many matches.

Arnor just looks reliable and a safe pair of hands (or rather feet) up and down the roster. A mid-field that doesn't make mistakes with defenders like Elendil and Malbeth (both had a good year at that position with Westernesse in 2011). Then the Witch-King and Araphor up front? They're no pushovers, especially when it comes to late game heroics and comebacks.

Mordor
FRIENDLIES:
-Gondor (L1-3)
-Erebor (L0-1)

It appears, on the surface this looks like one of the lousiest teams in the tournament. A 2-goal loss to Gondor is bad, a 1-goal loss to Erebor is less shaming, but still a loss. Then you see 1 goal in 2 games, while giving up 4. I wouldn't count out this low budget team just yet either though.

Remember Mordor nearly advanced in (admittedly a weak Group H) last year. Had Barad-Dur not scored a late, and rather unlucky goal, Mordor would have advanced instead of Minas Tirith last year. So despite having a low budget last year too, this team knows how to compete.

Their success (or failure) will depend on the mid-field, it's actually got more playoff experience than Anduin and Rohan's mid-field, plus the Mouth supported by 2 of his Nazgul will definitely work in unison. Shelob's a fearsome presense as a FW (has been improved in that position than as a GK).

Is the defense good enough? That's going to be an uncertainty, but none of the teams in this group have been lighting up the scoreboard. (granted they played tough defenses, but so did Mordor. They allowed 3 against Gondor, but you'll also see inflated scoring in heated rivalries when the teams are amped up).

Rohan
FRIENDLIES:
-Isengard (W2-1)
-Dwarves Utd (L0-1)

And then where does all this leave Rohan? Because a 1 goal loss to Dwarves Utd is not bad when looking at the competitiveness they'll face in this group. And a 2-1 win over Isengard is a positive.

Theoden's stellar goal tending year was when he was protected by his pair of tireless horses and a pair of Rohanian royalty (plus being in a lousy offensive group featuring Taniquetil, The Shire, and Dorthonion...controversial color-analyst called those teams "Taniqantscore, Borethonion, and not even good enough to come up with a cheesy name Shirelings" that year.")

The defense is also questionable, because Windfola and Snowmane...not only are they not Felarof and Shadowfax, but they pick up way more cards than a lot of defenders. The defense and Theoden may be protected this year though by a ball-controlilng midfield that should work well together and be hard for the teams in this group to get through). King Dead and Aldor are stout defensive mid-fielders then you've got Eowyn, Brytta and Faramir in the attack who are all not not alien to scoring some goals.

It'll have to be those 3 though because Helm is out of position. Helm is more naturally a mid-fielder with a wickedly powerful shot. The "Hammerfoot" can put in some tremendous long distance rockets, but he doesn't have the skills to be a FW. His career in the FW position is 1 goal and like 5 yellow cards.

Projected Standings:
1. Arnor
2. Mordor
3. Anduin
4. Rohan