Arda Cup Football 2013

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Before the Arda Cup 2013 preseason madness of transfers and friendlies begin, ArdaCup.com writer Adam 'not the economist' Smith looks back at the worst and the best signings of Arda Cup 2012.

(The contents of this article have not been reviewed or endorsed by ArdaCup.com. All opinions expressed by Adam Smith are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of ArdaCup.com or its staff, parent company, partners, or sponsors. His sources are not known to ArdaCup.com and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an Arda Cup accredited member of the media.

Again, there's a reason we place this disclaimer only in his articles.)
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Contracts are everything in this new salary cap era of the Arda Cup. Once upon a time, teams with deep pockets could hoard most of the talent, promising a coalition that would steamroller all opposition before it (see 2011 Doriath, 2009 Armenelos, 2008 Formenos, who won the cup; 2010 Mithrim had a similar approach but stumbled during the semifinals). Nowadays teams can be built only around a few Arda-class talents, with a sprinkling of role players. 2008-11 Fëanor would never have asked the Edain to join a team he was building; 2012 Fëanor had no choice but to bring them in to stay below the cap.

Sign the wrong player for the wrong price, and you're looking at losses galore (both on the pitch and in the pockets--see Nargothrond and Valimar). But if you fail to sign any talent at all, and even teams with Arda-class players will stumble (see Barad-dûr and Hithlum).

To start off this two-part article series, here are the five worst contracts of Arda Cup 2012.

5. Ancalagon (Angband): $15 million

'But he scored five goals in four games!' you might protest. That's true, stats don't lie. But they didn't get past the first knockout round, either. Ancalagon disappears way too much to be the main source of a team's goals. Allowing an unnamed Ringwraith and, later, a bunch of Third Age Men (not even from the royal Númenórean line!) to outplay him is unforgivable for a centre forward of a presumptive top-eight team.

If I were Morgoth, I'd slash his wages and look for a second, more reliable goalscorer.

4. Legolas (Dwarves United): $13 million
3. Ilmarë (Valimar): $10 million

A lot of teams these days play lone centre forwards so they could pack the midfield to retain possession or defend in depth. What would one ask of a lone centre forward in a defensive team?

a) Hold up long balls from the defence so the midfield could advance and help on the counterattack;

b) Score from crosses sent by wingers after they have carried the ball past the opposition's midfield.

And now for a trivia question: how many goals and assists did these two lone centre forwards score and assist?

Hint: $13 million per goal, $10 million per assist.

2. Thorondor (Tirion): $14 million

He's probably not the reason they were eliminated with zero points (see Valinor, FC; Valinor, Real; Menelos, Ar), but he's the highest paid player in a squad that had to look to public investments for funds. You're allowed to expect that he should have done better. Tirion were eliminated because they were outscored. Thorondor is the only veteran defender in a team with newish defenders and goalkeeper. You do the math.

And the worst contract of 2012:

1. Glaurung (Nargothrond): $16 million

In a team with Gwindor giving you quality crosses and Finrod feeding you quality through balls, how could you have scored just once?!

In his defence, he might have been playing out of position--2011 Nargothrond almost (well, not really) advanced to the knockout stage with him scoring all of Nargothrond's three goals from the midfield (with hardly any help, too). But seriously, only one freaking goal with one of the best wingers AND one of the best playmakers in your team?!

[The best contracts of 2012 will follow shortly.]

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Before the Arda Cup 2013 preseason madness of transfers and friendlies begin, ArdaCup.com writer Adam 'not the economist' Smith continues his look back at the worst and the best signings of Arda Cup 2012.

(The contents of this article have not been reviewed or endorsed by ArdaCup.com. All opinions expressed by Adam Smith are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of ArdaCup.com or its staff, parent company, partners, or sponsors. His sources are not known to ArdaCup.com and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an Arda Cup accredited member of the media.

As you'll see, there's a reason we place this disclaimer only in his articles.)
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I am much loved, it seems.

Less than 24 hours after posting my previous article, a deluge of letters overwhelmed our office. Many of them were sent by Orcs from Angband, Utumno, and Thangorodrim, each one containing a single letter in black speech. There was also a longer letter from an Angband address, this time in the common tongue, that said: 'If you put those letters together, they read: "We'll hang you by your intestines."'

I guess they're angry that two of their draconic comrades are in the list. Well, they're about to get more riled up: the next letter has a fair point regarding other members of the Angband squad.

Shouldn't we just lump all the high-salary players of Angband in your list? Despite Ancalagon's disappearing act in the Minas Tirith game, Tevildo's goal should have been enough for them to advance had Morgoth ($20 million), Balrog #1 ($15 million), or Carcaroth ($12 million) done a better job of keeping the Stewards from scoring.
-Araniel, Doriath

As I've said, a fair point. Even though Angband didn't let in more than two goals in any game, and those games where they let two in were against teams with a reputedly strong attack line, those teams also happen to be the most decaffeinated Tol-in-Gaurhoth team ever assembled, as well as Shire-Bree United, whose whole game plan seems to revolve around hoping Bombadil's head is on the game. Not to mention Angband really should have shut out the Downer and Minas Tirith. They had enough talent to.

You bash Ilmarë and Legolas in your article, but how could you ignore Saruman ($16 million) and Durin's Bane ($15 million), both of whom have the same goalscoring rate as Legolas? They're worse than the two you've mentioned because they don't even have a good defense to fall back on, so seeing those overpaid divas do so little effectively dashed their teams' hopes of advancing. Did you really watch all the games? I bet you're as overpaid and underperforming as these two.
-Miri, Greenwood the Great

You have a point (regarding Saruman and Durin's Bane, not the last part). But here's the thing--there never really was much expectation of these two teams--well, Misty Mts had a fair chance of advancing, but the quality gap between them and the two teams that did advance seemed so, well, gaping.

. . . But I'll concede that Saruman and Durin's Bane should have been in the top five. Maybe number two and three.

To start off:

Average salary of an Arda Cup player: $7.8 million
Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a round of sixteen team: $8.5 million
Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a quarterfinalist: $8.7 million
Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a semifinalist: $9.1 million
Average salary of an Arda Cup player in a finalist: $9.2 million

While I agree with Glaurung being the worst signing of 2012, how could Ilmarë and Legolas have made your list? Judging from the averages, Legolas is only $4.5 million overpaid, and Ilmarë $2.2 million over. Surely, Ar-Adûnakhôr ($15 million, 1 goal in three games) or Hador (exactly the same price and same scoring rate), both of whom came from teams that didn't advance past the group stage, are better shouts than the two I've mentioned.
-B, BD

First, thank you for doing my job for me.

Second, those two you've mentioned were not always that terrible. Hador scored four goals in three games in 2011, and that with a team that included Celegorm and Curufin. As for Ar-Adûnakhôr, he's a Cup winner and a very important teammate of Ar-Pharazôn. Armenelos and Hithlum were both in extremely tough groups, so they had mitigating circumstances. They're getting the same free pass as Túrin (most expensive signing at $24 million, his team eliminated in the group stage) is. If they do bomb again next year though . . .
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And now I present the ten best contracts of 2012. Why ten? Because I found it easier to find underpaid players who stood out than the reverse (unlike my readers, it seems). In a world where negativity reigns, I am a breath of fresh air.

But first, honourable mentions, two names that cannot be ignored:

Fëanor (AC Beleriand): $22 million
Elrond (Eriador): $20 million

The very best there are at their positions. Painfully expensive for anyone on a shoestring budget, but if a team who can afford them needs a striker or goalkeeper, they should be the first names to look for. (Túrin should have been here, but he's held out because of his down year. Hopefully he bounces back--his 2011 performance was the best year any forward ever had.)

10. Melian (Doriath): $15 million

She's $5 million cheaper than Morgoth, had lower quality teammates than he had, and faced slightly better attackers than he did, but let in only two more goals in as many games! How did she do it?! Melian is one of the best all-around defenders in the game, and a very capable back line leader.

9. Glorfindel (Eriador): $13 million

Seven goals and six assists in twelve games over two seasons. Four and three in seven last year. If you want to say 'consistent' in Quenya or Sindarin, the word's 'Glorfindel'.

8. Bard (Erebor): $8 million
7. Arveleg (Eriador): $8 million

Both played significant roles at important junctures with Cup contenders, while collecting below average market salary (see the letter above). Bard scored the second vs Wilderland in the group stage and the equaliser vs FC Valinor in the quarterfinals. Arveleg assisted Glorfindel's winner vs Minas Tirith in the quarterfinals and scored the opener vs Erebor in the semifinals. Best $8 million ever spent, those teams' owners surely thought.

6. Anarion (Gondor): $11 million

If, before the start of the 2012 Arda Cup, you told any owner that they could have a franchise goalscorer for $11 million, they would have laughed at you. Though it remains to be seen if he could be consistently good--he did almost nothing as a defender in the 2011 Barad-dûr squad.

5. Beorn (Erebor): $10 million

He did better than Huan in every existing metric! His team advanced further, he saved more shots (32 to Huan's 18), had a better save rate (80% to Huan's 78.3%), and he even saved more penalties in that shootout between their teams! Remember in 2011 when Grimbeorn looked like he was a really good goalkeeper in Sauron's Wilderland team (before they ran into the Valinor buzz saw)? Apparently his talent was hereditary.

4. Míriel (Real Valinor): $14 million
3. Arien (Real Valinor): $14 million

Three goals and four assist for Serindë, 6+1 for the Sun-maiden. That's right--of the twelve goals for their team, these two scored three-fourths of them. But wait, there's a missing name.

(Nerdanel may have found a good way to mess with statheads--no matter if her team reaches the final or gets eliminated in the quarterfinals, she would always put up two goals and three assists.)

2. Curufin (FC Valinor): $14 million

Remember, he had exactly the same stats as Arien--in two less games. Not only that, he's comfortable as a centre forward or out wide, and, since he's a converted defender, he doesn't shy away from defensive work. In the Valinor derby, with his brother Celegorm, he hounded Real Valinor's defenders to the point that Tilion and Caranthir had difficulty passing the ball to the midfield.

Let's see: had Finrod put him in place of Glaurung, not only would they have saved $2 million, their lack of defence wouldn't have been a problem because they'd win every game 4-3 or 5-4.

And the biggest bargain of 2012:

1. Beren (AC Beleriand): $12 million

'He had almost the same stats as Glorfindel, and scored one goal less than Curufin or Arien; how come he's ranked higher?' some would surely moan. But here's the thing--Beren is way more than a goalscorer. Remember that he was also a defender in the juggernaut 2011 Doriath squad. Remember that he was often tasked to mark the opposing squad's most dangerous midfielder or fullback without forgetting to be a goal threat. He had a higher work rate than the entire Angband back line, or eleven Glaurungs. I doubt you would find another player who can do everything short of goalkeeping at his price.

[the phantom]

Everyone knows that off-season moves are nearly as important as the season itself- a team needs players, after all! Here are a few squads and the rumors surrounding them...

Rohan- After a strong showing last year Rohan fans haven't heard much good news this off-season, as several of their biggest stars seemed reluctant to guarantee they're returning for this year. At this point it's pretty well settled that Gandalf is wandering off (and Shadowfax with him), and it seems Rohan will be losing their other primary horse-and-rider pair because...

Anduin- Multiple sources are confirming that Eorl and Felarof are deep in negotiations with Anduin, and with their major players from last season confirmed to return (Grimbeorn, Celeborn, etc.) Anduin supporters are feeling pretty good. Almost as good as...

The Barrow-Downs- They've complied with Eru's "Tolkien Mandate" and added several Middle-Earth talents. Yep, it's official- Bombadil and a few of his friends will be joining Hookbill and his crew of characters. Their payroll will probably still be on the low side, but for the first time this squad appears to be a threat to make it out of the group stage.

Armenelos- On the flip-side, these guys are used to advancing, and last year is looked on as an anomaly (they were in the "Group of Death" after all). No word has reached anyone of significant departures, and rumors of Elros are swirling after he declined to renew his contract with Imladris.

Valimar- Another perennial contender is feeling good about their status- it seems clear that Valimar has been successful at knocking their payroll down for their returners. And more interestingly, Manwe has scheduled a press conference for the end of the week, and he promises that he will be sharing "some extremely exciting news".

The Havens- Fans of The Havens are still waiting for a bit of excitement. While they were pleased last week to hear that Earendil and Cirdan would be re-signing, Angrod and Aegnor stated that they would be jumping ship (but to where?).

Mordor- Similarly, Mordor has heard more about departures than signings, with not one, not two, but three Nazgul apparently going elsewhere. Of course Sauron can fill the slots, but will he choose to go budget or quality?

Arnor- These guys have managed to do both thus far, cutting costs ever so slightly while looking to be improved. Thanks to their financial ties to team Eriador (through Elrond and Norbury Sport), it appears Isildur is headed to Eriador while the Witch King and Malbeth will be joining Arnor.

[Boromir88]

TTN will be back for another season of the Arda Cup to bring more variety to its readers and listeners.

Besides our traditional regional coverage, reporting on the happenings in Mordor and Gondor and match predictions from the esteemed Boro, TTN will offer more of a phantasy perspective than in years past. Pitting old school knowledge and history against new age projections to determine breakout stars in this year's tournament and much more analysis.

Stay tuned.

[Nogrod]

The Arda Kicker Magazine's (AKM) special reporter Hunter U. Nogson is back with an interview once again. This time to open up the web of deals behind the curtains as to how players move to different teams and how the money changes hands.

Let this be an pre-taste for all those thriving to win the phantasy-tournament - it will be fun indeed! Aka. all this has really happened in a set of nerve-wrecking negotiations, daring and decision-making.

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The AKM / Hunter U. Nogson


The kitchens of Rivendell were treating us quite nicely serving some local river mussels cooked in Bree-ale with Mirkwood herbs and fresh radishes from Arnor as appetizers – alongside a light sparkling wine from Dol Amroth and fried salty cheese from Gondor. The palate was interestingly close and homey even if the ingredients came from so far away from each other. If I were a restaurant critic I would give it a 9/10.

Nogrod seemed less impressed with the first course, like it was his daily staple – well, like it was nowadays.

“It’s good, yeah… okay”, he managed to compliment the artistry of the kitchens after I begged him for an opinion.

This guy has played in all the Arda Cups as a forward in the odd and secretive Tol-In-Gaurhoth being one of the real backbones of the team. Now he was sitting in front of me signed in to play for Eriador as a midfielder for 6 million. And I was thinking about what it was he was thinking – and what kind of process is the signing up competition between teams and players, what is the intrigue, how are the secret negotiations, who has the leverage, who pulls the strings… The key to my questions was emptying his glass of fine Dol Amrothian wine and burped in front of me. He wiped his mouth clean and apologized in a way I was not sure whether it was mocking my attention to his behaviour or something half-sincere.

“Well”, I started, after pouring us liberal portions of pretty expensive Dorwinionian Red to our glasses after the first course. “What made you to go for the open player-markets, were you dissatisfied with your team?”

He gave me a displeased look but then just shrugged. Toying with the glass in his hands he replied: “Maybe I had played in a same team for too long without any major success – and in a team that I saw was going rather down than up – and I think the AFA decision to not let us all play as werewolves - and how it ended up for us the last season – was the deciding factor here. And surely, I only hired an agent to begin with, just to make some enquieries…”

“So there was something that changed matters along the way?”, I put in inquisitively.

“Well yes,” he snapped back immediately taking a long sip on it. “Immediately after they heard in the T-I-G that I had been making enquiries it seemed there were whispers from some wanna-be werewolves – I’m not pointing out at anyone especially here, let’s be careful about this – and interestingly enough the T-I-G team was only offering me a deal of 5 million, half of my last year’s revenue – in the midfield!”

Here Nogrod slammed his glass to the table clearly agitated. I nodded to him calmly and refilled his glass with the Dorwinionian Red. “And that did it for you?” I asked as lightly as I could.

“Yeah. That did it.” Nogrod said and took a deep sip from the refilled glass. “After that there was no going back. I was a free agent then, for real.”

At this point the elven waitresses were bringing in the main course: smoked halibut with fennel and wild rice, and several kinds of jams and fresh greens on separate plates accompanied by a load of fresh white bread. The almost empty carafe of Dorwinionian Red was changed into a full bottle of cold Ithilien White.

“I’m much interested… What were your initial goals or ideas about where to play and with what kind of a deal?”

The halibut was just heavenly, and the roasted nuts and sesame seeds on top of it just made one fly… not to speak of the bitterness and the sting of the jams complimenting the mellow taste of the fish itself. Say what you wish, but they do know how to make exquisite dishes in Rivendell. And it seemed to soften Nogrod as well to speak his mind.

“Funnily enough,” he began, “my first ideas were to try and sign in to… Well, Sauron’s team – as I thought I could play as a werewolf with him and I think we had a good connection a few seasons back when he played with us. Secondly I thought that with my name I could take a starring role in the dwarven team who are a formidable group but really lack goal-scoring power. Thirdly there were rumours that the Barrow Downs team would be seeing a total turn-over and maybe even the Barrow-Wight himself would be gathering a team around him – so I was naturally interested in that as well. So how fun is that? None of those teams ended up in my last shortlists for signing up…”

“So what made it then?” I asked trying to hold my enthusiasm for what was to come.

“Well, after hearing the initial reports from different teams and especially that of the T-I-G – I felt like doing some soul-searching: Sauron was trying to cut costs like last year while having clear plans I didn’t seem to fit into the way I liked, the dwarves were reserved becaue they are racists – sorry to say that - , and the thing around the Barrow Downs was even messier it was in the beginning... And the fact is that I have played many seasons as a pro and it is not money I need – and neither was it continuity because of the back-stabbing from my own team.”

Scrapping the juices from the plate with a piece of bread Nogrod wiped his mouth with the cloth provided. After pouring himself a new glass of Ithilien White he turned his gaze back to me again.

“So I gave my agent new instructions and asked him to have an open mind about the teams… “ It was the first time during the interview that Nogrod actually smiled heartily. “God bless the guy. He’s good indeed”, he went on and nodded to the waiter who cleaned our table.

“So what was it you were after then and how did it come about you ended up with the team Eriador? I mean it looks like a bit stretch from what you have been talking about thus far”, I asked feeling we were finally getting somewhere unwounding the web of transfers in the Arda Cup.

“Well I did give my agent three points he should pay heed to when going widely round and about looking for places for me to play… firstly I wanted to play in a team where I could seriously contend for the Cup. Secondly I wanted to play in a team that was exciting – to learn and play an exciting game. And thirdly to play in team that gave me enough responsibility; a chance to shine if you wish to put it that way – I have my career to mind anyway…”

The waiters were bringing in the desserts: fresh berries soaked in liquor on top of some exquisite ice cream and sherry from Lake Town. And a nice kettle of double-espresso. It was heavenly.

“And guess what?”, Nogrod suddenly asked me before touching the dessert. “With all the nice feelings I had gathered after the initial disappointment with my former team I heard from the T-I-G that they were about to sign Thuringwethil and Draugluin with some nice deals! Wouldn’t that have been the team I would have loved to play as a werewolf! And they mockingly yet offered me a deal of 5 million as a midfielder!”

This time Nogrod did not bang his glass on the table but just set it there. But this clearly was an issue he took personally.

“There was a distrust there too wide to be overcome with myself and my former team… even if they had given me the best offer in terms of pay any other team had made. So anyone there willing to change teams, be prepared that your exchange-value might be half the amount you have been payed thus far… at least before you start to negotiate for real.”

“But you ended up with quite interesting negotiations, isn’t that true?”, I put in. “I understand that when the draft-season gets closing it’s not only the players but also the teams who need to play their cards more openly to get a squad they think they need to succeed in the Arda Cup?”

“You bet… that was interesting indeed. I was approached by multiple teams but let me stay with the interesting ones. First of all, Fëanor’s assistant from AC Beleriand contacted my agent to ask if I’d like to play for them for 3 million as a center-back. Dwarves United offered me the same salary for playing defensive midfielder – not trusting me enough to play in a more foreward position I gathered – and Eriador offered me 5 millions for filling the same place. And to top it Sauron was willing to pay me 7 million as a werewolf-defender in the middle of a wizard defence – and a 4 million deal to play midfield as a wight… But yes, that was just the starters and only a few teams negotiated with.”

“How did it go then?” I blurted quite forgetting my role as a critical journalist captivated by the story. “Who did you deny and how did you made it to 6 million for the Eriador?”

It was time for Nogrod to smile widely – a second helping of sherry did seem to help that though.

“I got some interesting offers along the way but on top of those I have already mentioned, I turned down fex. those of Shire-Bree, Anfaughlith, Anduin and Arnor… So it kind of left me with the consideration between Sauron’s Barad-Dûr, AC Beleriand and Eriador. Basically Arnor, Anduin and Barad-Dûr were giving me the best offers (5-8 millions), but I was slowly turning towards the chance to play for the Cup and thusly for either AC Beleriand (4-5 mill.) or Eriador (5-6 mill.) – I do have my doubts on how Sauron is playing this meta-game… even if playing a a werewolf would have answered some of my deepest cravings.”

With that Nogrod sighed and orderd a rhum and cola. I did the same and looked at him trying to be able to form the last fruitful question while picking the grapes that had been brought to our table overlooking the river-valley of Rivendell.

“So how did you come to your decision in the end? And was it worth all the effort?” I finally made, half disappointed over the question with no real edge.

“Well, it was finally between AC Beleriand and Eriador… Playing with Fëanor… well that would be a dream of anyone fulfilled, but I would have been a stranger there and they already had a four-player offence ready and practised which would mean I would be in a secondary role by definition, so an outsider also by the team-tactics; someone to fill a gap cheaply. In Eriador I have a better role in the midfield where there is only one striker, Isildur. Also playing with the team of Elrond means it is going to be a team to go far in the tournament – and sure Eriador is my neighbourhood as well so I feel a lot more at home there than I would have felt with the heroes of the first age elves.”

With that Nogrod emptied his glass and nodded to get up from his seat.
“Was it a good idea to change teams?”, I managed to ask him before he turned around.

“Well, it was an experience, a kind of a rollercoaster –ride that ended up well… or so I think of it as now. I’m looking forwards to play against the T-I-G team this year – and beating them. But it might have ended differently.” Suddenly Nogrod halted. “I mean, things are easy when you just go with the flow, but when you’re yourself responsible for what you are and where you are, well, that’s another matter entirely.”

With that he left the table. I didn’t have the story revealing all the intrigues of the player-transfers or of the financial moves behind the surface… but I had a partial story of one player, of one person inside this industry of professional football.

And I had eaten well in Rivendell. Valar be blessed.