WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Coppermirror]

...I can't believe that Inzil just self-voted.

Anyway, I haven't been able to use my computer for most of the Day so far, so I haven't yet done the analysis I planned to do on McCaber or the second look at Inzil in light of Morsul being innocent and McCaber a wizard. Although Morsul being innocent makes me much more suspicious of Inzil, it's not as if it's a foregone conclusion that after checking through all the facts I'll be wanting to vote for him. And only Rikae had voted for him so far.

And now Inzil's just self-voted. Why? The village (um, troll group) is pretty small now, so if he's innocent, that's tantamount to throwing us to the wolves, er, wizards. Although being frustrated over Rikae (and to an extent, I suppose, me) going for him would understandable. And if he's a wizard, I suppose it could be either a way of pretending to be frustrated innocent, or a way of signaling to a wizard-mate that they shouldn't try to save him.

[Nogrod]

Now what is this tom-foolery?

But yes, Zil's self-vote looks quite bad as it is hard for me to see why on earth would an innocent troll do that kind of thing with such a low numbers of us left.

Sally's strong reaction looks like she's coming to save a fellow by attacking Rikae. Then again she voted for Pom on D1 at quite a critical moment which kind of makes her look better.

And Rikae clearly stays up too late (I should know how that affects one... ).


This is going to be interesting.

I'll try to check things like voting patterns - and finally skim through D3 and D4 - later toDay.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But yes, Zil's self-vote looks quite bad as it is hard for me to see why on earth would an innocent troll do that kind of thing with such a low numbers of us left.

It really does. That's the reason I'm sitting here and scratching my head. An innocent Dun wouldn't do that, I don't think, but Rikae's behavior yesterDay has me suspecting her as well, and the idea of them planning this is maddening. There would be a lot for Rikae to gain by lynching a packmate toDay, and at this stage it's such a crazy idea that people may doubt she would take the risk.

I'm off to reread the thread (after I take care of a few things at work, that is). We'll see what conclusions I come to when I've finished.


But first, a complete voting history, so I (and the rest of you, I suppose ) have it handy.


DAY ONE
Coppermirror-->Boro
Morsul-->Kath
Brinn-->Nerwen
Gil-->Nerwen (2)
Cab-->Coppermirror
Pom-->Coppermirror (2)
Rikae-->McCaber
Green-->McCaber (2)
Inziladun-->Pom
Ozban-->McCaber (3)
Loslote-->Pom (2)
Boro-->Cop (3)
Volo-->Nerwen (3)
Sally-->Pom (3)
Shasta-->Pom (4)
Nog-->McCaber (4)

DAY TWO
Nerwen-->Nog
Oz-->Morsul
McCaber-->Rikae
Brinn-->Volo
Lottie-->Morsul (2)
Gil-->Volo (2)
Rikae-->Oz
Dun-->Oz (2)
Kath-->Morsul (3)
Morsul-->Oz (3)
Cop-->Oz (4)
Volo-->Oz (5)
Nog-->Morsul (4)
Sally-->Morsul (5)

DAY THREE
Rikae-->Rikae
Nerwen-->Rikae (2)
Morsul-->Rikae (3)
McCaber-->Morsul
Boromir-->Greenie
Lottie-->Nerwen
Gil-->Boro
Sally-->Morsul (2)
Cop-->Morsul (3)
Dun-->Gil
Greenie-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Boro (3)
Brinn-->Boro (4)
Kath-->Morsul (4)

DAY FOUR
Cop-->Gil
Nerwen-->Gil (2)
Sally-->Gil (3)
Rikae-->Gil (4)
Kath-->Sally
Cab-->Gil (5)
Morsul-->Sally (2)
Dun-->Gil (6)
Lottie-->Gil (7)
Nog-->Gil (8)

DAY FIVE
Morsul-->Sally
Cop-->Morsul
Zil-->Morsul (2)
Sally-->Morsul (3)
Cab-->Morsul (4)
Kath-->Sally (2)
Lottie-->Morsul (5)
Rikae-->Dun
Nog-->Sally (3)
Nerwen-->Morsul (6)

Known innocents italicized, known baddies underlined.


Off now. Back soon, I hope.


x'd since Nerwen's #631

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It really does. That's the reason I'm sitting here and scratching my head. An innocent Dun wouldn't do that, I don't think, but Rikae's behavior yesterDay has me suspecting her as well, and the idea of them planning this is maddening. There would be a lot for Rikae to gain by lynching a packmate toDay, and at this stage it's such a crazy idea that people may doubt she would take the risk.

What I said- if Rikae is a wolf after all, we've aleady lost, because there's no way she's going to be lynched now unless she climbs the gallows and sticks her head in the noose. Or someone manages to make a truly damning case on her. Short of that, I think we just have to assume she's innocent now.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, I will not be voting yet. Too much of a risk.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway, I will not be voting yet. Too much of a risk.

Seconded. I will (theoretically) be around until deadline and have no intention of voting until it's more prudent to do so.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway, I will not be voting yet. Too much of a risk.

If you're a decent troll, please come back before the DL - and it's a decent choice not to vote yet. I hope we can find something from back there toDay (at least I feel I have lost all touch on the last two Days).

If you're a Wizard, I hope you forget the DL...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What I said- if Rikae is a wolf after all, we've aleady lost, because there's no way she's going to be lynched now unless she climbs the gallows and sticks her head in the noose. Or someone manages to make a truly damning case on her. Short of that, I think we just have to assume she's innocent now.

....We just give up? No. I don't give up. Fine, maybe we lynch Dun toDay because we "have no other option," but toMorrow has not been decided.

There have been two votes cast for Dun toDay. Assuming Rikae or Dun is a wolf, which one of them pretty much has to be, it's still entirely possible that we could lynch someone else, though I'm honestly thinking Dun is a good choice toDay. If he's innocent (which would make him a legitimate troll, and would make me quite cross), Rikae is pretty certainly a wizard. If he's guilty, then she's either a lovely and clever young lady or she's wolf-on-wolfing so hard that even Shasta would blush. Either is a possibility, and to dismiss the possibility that she is a clever scheming wolf is absurd.

This is Rikae we're talking about. She knows how to play this game. She is absolutely capable of doing something crazy like this and getting away with it.


x'd with Nog and Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

....We just give up? No. I don't give up. Fine, maybe we lynch Dun toDay because we "have no other option," but toMorrow has not been decided.

There have been two votes cast for Dun toDay. Assuming Rikae or Dun is a wolf, which one of them pretty much has to be, it's still entirely possible that we could lynch someone else, though I'm honestly thinking Dun is a good choice toDay. If he's innocent (which would make him a legitimate troll, and would make me quite cross), Rikae is pretty certainly a wizard. If he's guilty, then she's either a lovely and clever young lady or she's wolf-on-wolfing so hard that even Shasta would blush. Either is a possibility, and to dismiss the possibility that she is a clever scheming wolf is absurd.

This is Rikae we're talking about. She knows how to play this game. She is absolutely capable of doing something crazy like this and getting away with it.

Absolutely- but it's still the fact that unless something really happens to incriminate her, in practical terms it's very unlikely she's going to be lynched, because of Brinn's comments.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Absolutely- but it's still the fact that unless something really happens to incriminate her, in practical twems it's very unlikely she's going to be lynched, because of Brinn's comments.

You've just agreed with me. I obviously think she's shifty. That's two of the five or six players we'll have alive toMorrow. It's not all that far-fetched, really. And the beauty of wolf-on-wolf tactics is that other players may not believe they have happened until the game is over and the wolves have won. Believe me. I know this. *glares at Shasta* We can't wait for her to do something crazy, say, voting herself (oh, wait, she's already done that), because if she's a wolf, she's already going crazy with the wolf-on-wolfing, and some of us are just ignoring it.

As for Brinn's comments, she could have been protecting Rikae because she had a hunch, or because of how upset Rikae got that one Day, or, yes, because she dreamt her. A seer has more information, true, but she is still a player just like the rest of us. If she went on just what she knew to be true, she would have tunnel vision so hard she'd run into a wall. Brinn still had to work from her own hunches, not just her dreams. We don't know what her dreams were. We can guess, but our guesses are exactly that, so we can't act purely based on what we think Brinn knew, because we may be wrong.

And now I really, really need to take a few steps back before I join the tunnel vision club. I'll be back shortly-ish with thoughts on Nog, Nerwen, Kath, and Cop. Oh, and DunDunDun.


x'd with Rikae

[Nogrod]

The last Days have been just crazy bandwagon-days: Days 2 & 3 were runs between innocents and Days 4 & 5 total Wagons for innocents. We have been playing this soo bad lately, well after D1 that is.

There is little to read from there and I feel like abandoning my great plan of going them through all from the beginning to the end. But I do think we'd need to check a few things.


On D3 the early wagon for Rikae (unknown) turned into Boro (innocent) and Morsul (innocent) -wagons. How did that happen?

Also, how did the wagons for Gil (innocent) and Morsul (innocent) took air on Days 4 and 5 respectively?

Are there any connections between the wagons or in trickering them (not just initiating them but especially in making them "wagons" in the first place aka. making other choices not worthwhile)?

Also, I'd like to have Brinn's wordings re-checked. Not only what she said of Rikae as to check how much we can trust her innocence, but also whether there are any hints whatsoever as to whom she might have dreamt of.

And Kath needs to be read more closely... The almost total ignorance or silence of everyone with her is kind of screaming at me at the moment as I realise it.


EDIT: X'd with Rikae & Sally

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

There have been two votes cast for Dun toDay. Assuming Rikae or Dun is a wolf, which one of them pretty much has to be

Why on earth would that be the case? What a bizarre thing to say.

EDIT: Fixed quote.

[Coppermirror]

Nog: If he's a Nog-wizard, we now know that he wasn't voting McCab in order to save Pom. However, he might have been doing it in order to set himself up to look better later, by sitting on the fence and seeming to suspect both of those two. Overall I'd say the new info makes him look a little better, but...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So why on earth - if I were a packmate of Pom - did I do what I did? That would have been soo unnecessary an attempt (the possibility of it going down the drain aka. Pom getting lynched anyway would have been high indeed while risking myself) while the other option (making sure Pom gets lynched and I get the glory for it) would have been so much more smoother. I would have been a very stupid wolf

That would actually be explained given that both McCab and Pom were wizards, and voting for the other candidates might well look fishy.

Aside from that, McCaber seemed to suspect him...

Rikae: I do have to agree with Nerwen that unless we get some serious new info on Rikae, if she was actually a wizard all this time, we're probably sunk as a troll village.

Also, note how McCab went for her in post #210.

Sally: #215 from her worries me in that she's jumping on the "innocent McCab" thing from Morsul and pointing out that Lottie said it first. I think the "innocent McCab" would be a great thing for wizards to use as ammo, knowing that of course, McCab really wasn't.

Although in #217, she's still suspecting him on the grounds of Pom's reaction to his vote looking incriminating. Would that really be a safe thing for a wizard Sally to keep in people's minds?

Anyway, those are just my thoughts so far as I look through the pages0

I have to mention, I have to vote within half an hour of now or not vote at all, and I'm still having trouble with my computer being slow in hot weather (although I think it's not at risk of damaging itself any more...), which is making going through the previous pages even slower. If I haven't voted within 40 minutes, you can safely assume there is no chance whatsoever that I'll be back toDay.

[Kath]

So, SO sorry to be doing this on toDay of all Days ... but this is it from me. I am only just home and going straight back out.

+sally
For reasons previously stated. Lottie said I was being 'typical innocent' by trying to make Morsul's vote for sally fit my wolf theory. No. I was saying that made Morsul less likely to be a wolf if sally was one. Well, Morsul wasn't a wolf. So sally.

Really, really sorry for being all but a no-show.

[satansaloser2005]

Kath's over-defensiveness regarding her Wizard of Oz outburst early in the game struck me as an honestly frustrated and confused Kath.


Rikae spends a little too much time comparing this game to Dueling Wizards. She mentions it in her #11, then again in #30, and possibly again in another place (though I'm rushing now and may be misremembering). In one of those posts (#30), she says Pom, Dun, and Cab are trying to convince people that wizards are good. Why the fixation with that game? Well, if I'm right....

Rikae says in her #66 she wants to lynch Dun because "I always suspect him, simple as that." Dun nearly votes her in #71, but it's clearly a joke, and he adds "Not yet" to the end of his post.

Then she's suddenly (well, not suddenly) at his throat toDay, and he goes along with it? I want to know how the rest of you are not suspicious of all of this.


Moving on....

"I don't like the way Pom and Cab went for Cop at all," says Rikae in her #109. It could be actual concern, but it seems like an older wolf unhappy with her mates' clearly unwise behavior.

Dun's "Yes indeed" in #160 to Cab's comment about more than one wizard going for Cop (the original comment was made by Pom) is almost certainly wolf sarcasm.

Nerwen's analyses of Pom and Nog (#168 and #188 respectively) look like innocent Nerwen, and are reasonable. She makes some good points about Nog's vote for McCaber. It really was odd, and continues to bother me.

In #221 Cop says she's not worried about Dun for once. This strikes me as odd.

Rikae's #228: "Yes, I'm late, which proves I'm not a wizard." No. Just....no. Also, part of that post looks, again, like an alpha addressing her cubs.

Rikae was also strangely pushy about me looking at Oz. Not pushy in a rude way, but it didn't seem like something an innocent Rikae would do. Of course the other options at the time were Volo and Morsul, and she'd have wanted both of those to die (going back to the possibility that the wolves thought Volo was the seer), so I don't really see the point to her pushing me toward it when it didn't benefit her (unless she thought Oz was another gifted, which is possible).

In retrospect, Nog was in an excellent position on the Day Oz died, which could be why he asked for my opinion; it didn't matter to him who was lynched, as long as somebody was. And then in his #267 he says, "This turns out interesting indeed!!!" It could easily be a gloating wolf, um, gloating.

Rikae's self-vote continues to be shifty. If she were the purseholder (as Nog proposed in a later post), I'd think she would have been clearer about it, or at least less reckless afterward. It doesn't ring true to me. She's done this enough times to know that it won't necessarily get you lynched, and she's smart enough to plan it out so she survived and is now trusted by most....holy crap, that's what is going on at the moment. Again, why is everyone else trusting her so?

Dun defends Rikae in his #308, as does Cab in #365. Dun says he doesn't buy her confession. Of course now the opposite is happening, so that's....interesting.

Cop (and others) cited Volo's suspicion of Rikae, which she still seems to be denying.

Kath's talk of Volo in #383 looks wrong to me, though I'm honestly starting to skim at this point, so I'll have to think more on it toMorrow if I'm still alive.

"Someone join me so this vote [for Gil] is not for nothing." Stay classy, Dun.



Posting this and then voting. Dun is almost certainly evil, and Rikae really looks like his packmate. Gah. Time really whizzed by toDay.


I'll bold this later. Sorry. No time. (ETA: Bolded now, yay!)


x'd since my last

[satansaloser2005]

++Dun

[satansaloser2005]

I'm sorry that post is so disjointed. I'd planned to actually go back and quote things and say more, but I suddenly got handed a bunch of work early in the afternoon and simply didn't have time. I'm sure there are parts of that post that don't make sense outside of my head, and I'll be happy to explain them toMorrow if I'm around, but I wanted to type up the scribbles I had, so....ugh. There'll be time toMorrow, I hope.

Quick list then, based on what I read just now.


Suspicious:
Dun
Rikae

Fence-sitting:
Nog
Cop

Trusting for now:
Nerwen
Kath

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What I said- if Rikae is a wolf after all, we've aleady lost

Isn't that a bit overdoing our predicament?

It's 5:2, right?

If we lynch an innocent it will be 4:2 come the Night.

If the ranger doesn't make another save, it will be 3:2, and there will be a toMorrow.

Now that would be a tough ordeal, but not a lost game. Especially if we had good reasons to stand up together toMorrow. And let's not forget the possibility the ranger really gives us a gift. The numbers come down and the chances that the ranger gets it right increase all the time.

So let's cheer up and be positive - and do some Wizard-hunting toDay!


EDIT: X'd with Sally X2

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

...I can't believe that Inzil just self-voted.

Anyway, I haven't been able to use my computer for most of the Day so far, so I haven't yet done the analysis I planned to do on McCaber or the second look at Inzil in light of Morsul being innocent and McCaber a wizard. Although Morsul being innocent makes me much more suspicious of Inzil, it's not as if it's a foregone conclusion that after checking through all the facts I'll be wanting to vote for him. And only Rikae had voted for him so far.

And now Inzil's just self-voted. Why? The village (um, troll group) is pretty small now, so if he's innocent, that's tantamount to throwing us to the wolves, er, wizards. Although being frustrated over Rikae (and to an extent, I suppose, me) going for him would understandable. And if he's a wizard, I suppose it could be either a way of pretending to be frustrated innocent, or a way of signaling to a wizard-mate that they shouldn't try to save him.

If Zil and Rikae are both innocent, then there are five people left to vote, of whom two are wolves. So this would be an awfully bad time for an innocent to self-vote. (Not that Rikae's was great, either.)

Also, if Rikae is guilty after all, the tack Sally is now taking, we've been pretty much done for ever since Brinn died. Unfortunately that does happen sometimes– the Seer appearing to "clear" someone she hasn't actually dreamed– but there's little hope for the village in such a case, unless the supposed "known innocent" starts acting really suspiciously. As of the time of posting, I don't think that applies.

Originally Posted by Rikae

This is precisely why it is sometimes good for them to know, or think they know, who the hunter is.
Catch my drift?

Following that line of thought– is it possible the wolves had picked up "Hunter vibes" from Lottie? I had, for a couple of Days before that, though I can't put my finger on why. If they had, her views on guilt/innocence as of yesterDay might mean something– in the sense they would then likely pick a Night when she didn't seem to suspect any of them strongly. (This, you see, is sort of the opposite of looking at the views of a dead Seer.) Here (#567), with only twenty minutes to go, she says Nog would actually be her preferred lynch over Morsul, and that she is "very wary" of him, and this is the only really strong suspicion she gives that Day of anyone except Morsul himself.

This is making quite an assumption, though– this close to the endgame, they could have simply been more interested in getting rid of a difficult-to-lynch player.

[Nerwen]

Along the same lines as my last post: McCaber's death was
likely one for which the wolves had no contingency plans. Sure, at this stage in the game they'd be mad not to consider the risk one of them might fall to the Hunter (whether they'd actually picked Lottie's role or not). But I bet it was a nasty shock for them to wake up and find McCaber dead- he ought to have looked safe from a possible Hunter-Lottie last Night.

Relevance? Well, some desperate or weird behaviour wouldn't be surprising- this- if Zil is in fact a wolf- may explain the self-vote, which otherwise seems ill-advised regardless of role.

And, of course, one has to wonder about Sally now...

[Nerwen]

Still no-one around? This is getting dull. Why can't we have some competing reveals or something?

*sigh*

I suppose I should do some analyses of things. The Day One voting ought to look different now that we know two of the main contenders were wolves.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Still no-one around?
...
The Day One voting ought to look different now that we know two of the main contenders were wolves.

Just logged in and thought of going through the votes (and vote-timing!) now as we have some new information - and at least I have had only a vague idea of how the votes have gone of late as I haven't seen anyone making extensive tallies.

So I'm delving back into the thread.

If you're doing voting tallies with voting-times marked, please let me know Nerwen, so that we don't do the same work twice!