WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, getting Cab gives us another Night of grace, but you could do better then me.

Any suggestions as to who, in that case?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Any suggestions as to who, in that case?

I intend to look at Nerwen and Sally.

[Inziladun]

To elaborate, I'm specifically interested to see if there appear to be any connections between those two and Pom and/or Cab.

[Inziladun]

Ok, interactions with and comments of Nerwen regarding the known Wizards.

Here is banter with Pom in troll-fashion.

Here she responds to Rikae with "An' when did Pom, Lad 'n' Cab say anything' about wizards not actin' like wizards?" Two Wizards there. Coincidence? Maybe. Seems rather careless for a Nerwizard.

This is her analysis of the Pom-lynch. nothing really notable there.

Questions whether Pom was bussed, concludes there was likely an attempt to save her.

Here she says Pom's seeming not knowing Cop's gender could be a point in Cop's favor.

Agrees with Cab that Volo was a "weird choice" of a wolf kill. You think?

And...that's all I saw. No obviously sinister links, at least not from her posts.

[Rikae]

I don't want to get tunnel vision but Inzil is looking worse and worse. I'll explain more soon (I hope. My internet is being bratty).

I kind of hope Zil is a wolf now, though, because going through Day one I see this from me:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I see, so Pom, Inzil and McCaber are trying to convince us that wizards don't act like wizards. Suspicious. Why would they be called "wizards" if they didn't change anyone's role, hmmm? Who would want us to think the wizards had fewer powers than they do, other than... wizards?

"Finding" three wolves in a banter post would just be awesome.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't want to get tunnel vision but Inzil is looking worse and worse. I'll explain more soon (I hope. My internet is being bratty).

I kind of hope Zil is a wolf now, though, because going through Day one I see this from me:


"Finding" three wolves in a banter post would just be awesome.

In other words, the same sort of "tunnel vision" you accused others of having toward Morsul? And by all means, explain your suspicion.

[Inziladun]

I encourage everyone to at least rely on your own instincts and conclusions this Night. Yes, there is another Night's leeway, thanks to Lottie, but don't let that move you into hastiness. Look back over things and make up your own mind.

[Coppermirror]

...I can't believe that Inzil just self-voted.

Anyway, I haven't been able to use my computer for most of the Day so far, so I haven't yet done the analysis I planned to do on McCaber or the second look at Inzil in light of Morsul being innocent and McCaber a wizard. Although Morsul being innocent makes me much more suspicious of Inzil, it's not as if it's a foregone conclusion that after checking through all the facts I'll be wanting to vote for him. And only Rikae had voted for him so far.

And now Inzil's just self-voted. Why? The village (um, troll group) is pretty small now, so if he's innocent, that's tantamount to throwing us to the wolves, er, wizards. Although being frustrated over Rikae (and to an extent, I suppose, me) going for him would understandable. And if he's a wizard, I suppose it could be either a way of pretending to be frustrated innocent, or a way of signaling to a wizard-mate that they shouldn't try to save him.

[Nogrod]

Now what is this tom-foolery?

But yes, Zil's self-vote looks quite bad as it is hard for me to see why on earth would an innocent troll do that kind of thing with such a low numbers of us left.

Sally's strong reaction looks like she's coming to save a fellow by attacking Rikae. Then again she voted for Pom on D1 at quite a critical moment which kind of makes her look better.

And Rikae clearly stays up too late (I should know how that affects one... ).


This is going to be interesting.

I'll try to check things like voting patterns - and finally skim through D3 and D4 - later toDay.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But yes, Zil's self-vote looks quite bad as it is hard for me to see why on earth would an innocent troll do that kind of thing with such a low numbers of us left.

It really does. That's the reason I'm sitting here and scratching my head. An innocent Dun wouldn't do that, I don't think, but Rikae's behavior yesterDay has me suspecting her as well, and the idea of them planning this is maddening. There would be a lot for Rikae to gain by lynching a packmate toDay, and at this stage it's such a crazy idea that people may doubt she would take the risk.

I'm off to reread the thread (after I take care of a few things at work, that is). We'll see what conclusions I come to when I've finished.


But first, a complete voting history, so I (and the rest of you, I suppose ) have it handy.


DAY ONE
Coppermirror-->Boro
Morsul-->Kath
Brinn-->Nerwen
Gil-->Nerwen (2)
Cab-->Coppermirror
Pom-->Coppermirror (2)
Rikae-->McCaber
Green-->McCaber (2)
Inziladun-->Pom
Ozban-->McCaber (3)
Loslote-->Pom (2)
Boro-->Cop (3)
Volo-->Nerwen (3)
Sally-->Pom (3)
Shasta-->Pom (4)
Nog-->McCaber (4)

DAY TWO
Nerwen-->Nog
Oz-->Morsul
McCaber-->Rikae
Brinn-->Volo
Lottie-->Morsul (2)
Gil-->Volo (2)
Rikae-->Oz
Dun-->Oz (2)
Kath-->Morsul (3)
Morsul-->Oz (3)
Cop-->Oz (4)
Volo-->Oz (5)
Nog-->Morsul (4)
Sally-->Morsul (5)

DAY THREE
Rikae-->Rikae
Nerwen-->Rikae (2)
Morsul-->Rikae (3)
McCaber-->Morsul
Boromir-->Greenie
Lottie-->Nerwen
Gil-->Boro
Sally-->Morsul (2)
Cop-->Morsul (3)
Dun-->Gil
Greenie-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Boro (3)
Brinn-->Boro (4)
Kath-->Morsul (4)

DAY FOUR
Cop-->Gil
Nerwen-->Gil (2)
Sally-->Gil (3)
Rikae-->Gil (4)
Kath-->Sally
Cab-->Gil (5)
Morsul-->Sally (2)
Dun-->Gil (6)
Lottie-->Gil (7)
Nog-->Gil (8)

DAY FIVE
Morsul-->Sally
Cop-->Morsul
Zil-->Morsul (2)
Sally-->Morsul (3)
Cab-->Morsul (4)
Kath-->Sally (2)
Lottie-->Morsul (5)
Rikae-->Dun
Nog-->Sally (3)
Nerwen-->Morsul (6)

Known innocents italicized, known baddies underlined.


Off now. Back soon, I hope.


x'd since Nerwen's #631

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It really does. That's the reason I'm sitting here and scratching my head. An innocent Dun wouldn't do that, I don't think, but Rikae's behavior yesterDay has me suspecting her as well, and the idea of them planning this is maddening. There would be a lot for Rikae to gain by lynching a packmate toDay, and at this stage it's such a crazy idea that people may doubt she would take the risk.

What I said- if Rikae is a wolf after all, we've aleady lost, because there's no way she's going to be lynched now unless she climbs the gallows and sticks her head in the noose. Or someone manages to make a truly damning case on her. Short of that, I think we just have to assume she's innocent now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

...I can't believe that Inzil just self-voted.

Anyway, I haven't been able to use my computer for most of the Day so far, so I haven't yet done the analysis I planned to do on McCaber or the second look at Inzil in light of Morsul being innocent and McCaber a wizard. Although Morsul being innocent makes me much more suspicious of Inzil, it's not as if it's a foregone conclusion that after checking through all the facts I'll be wanting to vote for him. And only Rikae had voted for him so far.

And now Inzil's just self-voted. Why? The village (um, troll group) is pretty small now, so if he's innocent, that's tantamount to throwing us to the wolves, er, wizards. Although being frustrated over Rikae (and to an extent, I suppose, me) going for him would understandable. And if he's a wizard, I suppose it could be either a way of pretending to be frustrated innocent, or a way of signaling to a wizard-mate that they shouldn't try to save him.

If Zil and Rikae are both innocent, then there are five people left to vote, of whom two are wolves. So this would be an awfully bad time for an innocent to self-vote. (Not that Rikae's was great, either.)

Also, if Rikae is guilty after all, the tack Sally is now taking, we've been pretty much done for ever since Brinn died. Unfortunately that does happen sometimes– the Seer appearing to "clear" someone she hasn't actually dreamed– but there's little hope for the village in such a case, unless the supposed "known innocent" starts acting really suspiciously. As of the time of posting, I don't think that applies.

Originally Posted by Rikae

This is precisely why it is sometimes good for them to know, or think they know, who the hunter is.
Catch my drift?

Following that line of thought– is it possible the wolves had picked up "Hunter vibes" from Lottie? I had, for a couple of Days before that, though I can't put my finger on why. If they had, her views on guilt/innocence as of yesterDay might mean something– in the sense they would then likely pick a Night when she didn't seem to suspect any of them strongly. (This, you see, is sort of the opposite of looking at the views of a dead Seer.) Here (#567), with only twenty minutes to go, she says Nog would actually be her preferred lynch over Morsul, and that she is "very wary" of him, and this is the only really strong suspicion she gives that Day of anyone except Morsul himself.

This is making quite an assumption, though– this close to the endgame, they could have simply been more interested in getting rid of a difficult-to-lynch player.

[Nerwen]

Along the same lines as my last post: McCaber's death was
likely one for which the wolves had no contingency plans. Sure, at this stage in the game they'd be mad not to consider the risk one of them might fall to the Hunter (whether they'd actually picked Lottie's role or not). But I bet it was a nasty shock for them to wake up and find McCaber dead- he ought to have looked safe from a possible Hunter-Lottie last Night.

Relevance? Well, some desperate or weird behaviour wouldn't be surprising- this- if Zil is in fact a wolf- may explain the self-vote, which otherwise seems ill-advised regardless of role.

And, of course, one has to wonder about Sally now...

[Nerwen]

Still no-one around? This is getting dull. Why can't we have some competing reveals or something?

*sigh*

I suppose I should do some analyses of things. The Day One voting ought to look different now that we know two of the main contenders were wolves.

[Coppermirror]

I'm having computer trouble, so it may be a few hours before I can do anything useful. The weather is and has been so hot toDay that I don't dare leave my computer running for long. Maybe in an hour or so the temperature will cool down enough for it to be safe. Preferably before it gets to be daylight again...Anyway, assuming that happens I should be around later, since it's not as if I can sleep in this sort of weather either.

[Nogrod]

There needs to be a good reason for me to vote Copper: McCaberWizard and PomWizard voted for him in concerto on D1.

Okay, a crazy scenario: Copper is a wolf and they did it to save another fellow aka. Nerwen (with whom Copper tied with their two consecutive votes). But yes, I'm not going to take that one seriously, at least without further reasons to do so.

But that double-vote by the Wizards does does lead up to the question whether they then tried to save Nerwen there?

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading.