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#1 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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Yes, and unless I'm greatly mistaken it would need to be 3 villagers to 3 wolves for us to lose, as opposed to the 6 villagers to 3 wolves we'd have if we missed our lynch today.
Can I please get an official clarification on this?
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
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#2 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#3 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Tomorrow is looking to be pretty hectic, but I'll get in here when I can. Hopefully with a less distracted mind.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#4 |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Okay, there's only ten of us left, guys - we must be able to narrow this down to some extent.
Innocent, probably Cop Zil Sally Rikae Lottie (in my list, anyway) Under my radar Kath Cabbie Suspect, to some degree Morsul Nerwen Nog ...okay then. Well. I'll take a close look at Kath and Cabbie, but for the most part, those are the three who have seemed off all game. That also reminds me suddenly of how Morsul flipped between the other two in that list for which one to suspect, then (without explaining the logic) chose Nerwen. It seems to me that he was trying to include wolf-on-wolf, but didn't quite commit enough. I would say, lynch one of those three toNight, and we'll probably be pretty likely to catch us a Wizard. Like I said, I'll look at Kath and Cabbie when I get back from class, just to make sure I'm not overlooking anything, but I'm pretty sure this is the way things lie at the moment.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#5 | |||
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Really? This little posting, and most of it arguing with Morsul? On a day like today?
Well, anyway, Sally. She started off with a lot of strange posts - I thought so at the time - implying she doesn't know anything about trolls. Really. Yes, it was banter, but I think everyone here knows Tolkien's trolls have pockets! I have no idea what that is or why she'd do it, unless maybe as some sort of wizard hint to the cobbler or... er, maybe a hunter hint? Purse troll? I don't even know. Hm, indeed: Quote:
Anyway, on day one there is really a lot more banter and no, I'm not going to give a list of the post numbers with "banter" after each one. ![]() It is worth noting that she's the first to comment on Pom's "keep on eye on Cop voters" thing with: Quote:
Of course she also votes for Pom. Weird, though: Quote:
Obvious attempt to bandwagon is a weird thing to say when it was a cross vote. Day two she suspects Volo, Gil and Morsul - now, if Morsul is innocent this would be a nice trio for a wizard to try to lynch Two "easy lynches" (I'm still very wary of Morsul's calling himself that, though) and one cobbler who is probably also an easy lynch. Okay, I have to leave, but I'll have more later. |
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#6 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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I really feel like several people want us to lynch Morsul today. Like three. I have a feeling all our wolves are in secure positions right now.
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#7 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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I will be around toDay, but probably not for another hour or two. Stupid weather. I must leave now, but I'll be back when I can. *scurries*
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#8 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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I'm tending to agree with Rikae now- this is all feeling wrong. Btw, sorry about lack of participation toDay. Couldn't help it.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#9 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Quote:
And top the latter case, I've had crazy days for the last ones so I haven't even read through yesterDay - and it's like 1½ hours to the DL and I'm actually feeling more dead-tired and empty-headed than enthusiastic... ![]() But I have that nagging feeling too; maybe the baddies have been just totally at ease all the game (except Pom, of course) and killing Brinn was just extremely lucky (nad thus had nothing to do with whom they thought to be the seer)? Okay. I'll try to do something. EDIT: X'd with Rikae & Lottie
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#10 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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5-3Wizard kill 4-3missed lynch 3-3wizard kill that's the math I've got
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#11 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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I'm strongly considering voting for Morsul:
-for trying to lump himself in with Gil yesterday as an "easy lynch". -for the countdown to a wizard victory. Yes, it's just the facts, but something about the way he posted looks like counting down to his own win. I can't put my finger on what that "something" is, but it feels wrong. |
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#12 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Cool though, you want to vote for me I understand, wouldn't want to mess up this losing streak we're on(sarcasm). I'm going to sleep now. Also after a quick reread Nerwen overcame Nog as my third suspect. Trying to decide if I should vote. Actually yeah not really anything will change my mind on this... ++Sally reasons I stated yesterday haven't changed didn't like How she voted Gil If I was her top suspect the whole time why not vote me? Looks like she just wanted to look like another befuddled ordo.
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#13 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
posting yesterDay. It's not as if one is committed to picking a single suspect and sticking to him throughout the game.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#14 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Oh yes, Morsul looks quite bad. He's right about comparing himself to Gil, though. It's the same problem, basically.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#15 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#16 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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I'm not liking this "analyze the two people below you" plan. It was Cop's idea, and it means I'm analyzing Cop; it also means that six people are being analyzed by wizards and that will take up most of the day, giving them a chance to look helpful while doing little. These kinds of analyses are only useful when there is a conclusion, and it's too easy, this way, to analyze without coming to any real conclusion at all (after all, it's just a rote thing, right? Just what you're supposed to do?)
Perhaps we should analyze people we find possibly suspicious? Radical idea, I know. |
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#17 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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That said, I'll go along and analyze Sally and Cop.
I hope people are going to compare the way the same person is analyzed by the two people who are supposed to cover him/her. I really don't like this format, though. It isn't helpful to read a bland summary of every post a person made with no commentary. Couldn't people just mention things that they consider worth commenting on? That, after all, is the sort of thing that makes the analysis reflect on the analyzer as well; it is also much more readable than: #9 - banter #13 - more banter #57 - lots of arguing etc. I mean, really. |
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#18 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#19 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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No. I don't want to lynch him anymore. It seems too much as if he's been chosen for the purpose.
Honestly, after Pom got lynched for the same sort of thing, do you really think I would say that meaning me? I now have a feeling this day is being choreographed, and you are one of the choreographers. |
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#20 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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As a matter of fact I'm not going to go along with this plan. If it's not a wizard's plan, it's certainly helpful to them.
I will not vote for Morsul for the reasons I just mentioned. Thoughts on everybody: Loslote - Her posting often seems iffy, but she did give Pom her second vote. I don't think a wizard would have considered it necessary to bus Pom at that point. Rikae - Ordo, seer-dreamed as far as I can tell. Inzil - Looking very bad to me now. He's been flying under the radar (even though he had 3rd most posts!) and generally seems to be poking at people without getting his hands dirty, hoping for something to stick. Voted for Gil the day before Brinn's death as well - a safe vote at the time. Kath - Really under the radar. Caused a lot of confusion with her early banter, but overall her posting doesn't seem suspicious. It doesn't seem particularly innocent either. Very short, largely uncontroversial posts. Safe. A little too safe. McCaber - His "bandwagon" on Cop with Pom shouldn't make him, or Cop for that matter, look any better. Pom's "keep an eye on Cop voters" makes him look slightly better, however, I am really not pleased with his analysis toDay (night?) - a lot of text, not a lot of content. Nerwen Sally - looking pretty innocent, actually, mostly due to her vote. Shasta likely wasn't killed because the wizards hoped he'd be modfired, come to think of it, and Sally may be alive now because of Brinn's comment bringing attention to her (I doubt very highly that Brinn actually dreamed of her). Morsul - too often put forward as an easy lynch candidate by people who themselves don't look too innocent. He could still be evil. His posting, however, is erratic and controversial in a way that either an innocent or a wizard could possibly be, but that, in an innocent, would attract wizardly attention. I will not be voting for him today. Nog - The events thus far have a Nog-mastermind feel to them. Particularly had the impression he was part of a plot to frame me after Volo's death - him more so than Nerwen. She is persistent enough to make herself look better, while Nog puts something out there and then sort of lets it gain momentum while backing off himself. He is also not nearly as active, as serious about wolf-hunting, as an innocent Nog usually is. Innocent Nog is persistent - this Nog is not. I don't like it. Nerwen - I'm keeping an eye on her but as I've said, I actually think she'd be a bit more laid back if she were evil. If she is evil, she's doing a good job - staying involved in the controversy while making herself look better rather than worse. Coppermirror - Just the same old bad feeling about the way she makes long posts with little content, and now has basically prompted the entire village to do the same. It may be a style thing, though. Looking worst right now: Inzil Nogrod Kath Iffy: Coppermirror McCaber Nerwen Ok for now: Lottie Sally Morsul Nerwen Rikae (duh) |
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#21 | |||
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
Last edited by Loslote; 01-30-2013 at 02:28 PM. |
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#22 | |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Quote:
Trouble is, I really haven't had a chance to look closely at others. I have misgivings about Nerwen, and to a lesser extent Sally, though the latter has to a large extent been mitigated by the fact that I haven't trusted Morsul, and he's been after her. Morsul, as you say, has been all over the place as usual, but "that's just Morsul" shouldn't always be an out. Unfortunately, I need to vote now, or not vote at all. ++Morsul Do as you like, and good luck. x/d with Rikae and Kath
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#23 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I got to check Brinn's posting and the few notes I had made on Volo.
With the information we have now it looks pretty improbable the Wizards killed either of them because they looked seerish to them. Which I think is pretty wild indeed, well, odd. I've been a wolf often enough to know there is no other concern that would override the search for the seer with the lupines - and the gravest sacrifices (making themselves look bad the next Day) are needed when there is a suspicon about who the seer is (which comes from any unwarranted or firm suspicion for one of them). Sure the pressure and the need depend on any given situation, but that is a kind of basic fact, like the law of gravity for WW-games. And therefore the choices the Wizers have made puzzle me to no end now. Also, going back there showed quite clearly Rikae is innocent.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#24 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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I'm not intending to vote super early toDay. My choice is to either vote before I sleep, or get up unpleasantly early in the morning to read things through and vote before I go out for the day, and this time I think I'll do the latter, since things are getting pretty bad. But even with that I'll still be having to vote 5 or 6 hours before the deadline.
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#25 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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There is nothing which stands out clearly in Inzil's behaviour as suspicious. If he's a wizard, he's playing an exceptionally careful and subtle game. I'm still inclined to think he's probably innocent. Things could only really change here depending on further information.
Of Kath, there is painfully, painfully little content to judge her by. (I'm sure she's busy IRL, regardless of guilt or innocence.) From the little shown, she seems pretty reasonable, but that doesn't really mean much. Going by her posts, I don't think it's likely for there to be a Kath-Morsul wizard pack going on here. Unless the Wizard of Oz cobbler stuff was a clever plan, and I don't think it was, especially since it was still getting brought up in later Days. I should have voted about 15 minutes ago, yelp. I'm thinking of voting Nog or Morsul. I wish there'd been more discussion toDay. Suspicions list: Not especially worried about: Loslote Rikae Inzil Worried about: Kath McCaber Nerwen Sally - in light of people's posts lately. Really worried about: Morsul Nog People are right that Morsul would be an easy lynch for wizards to push for, so we do need to be cautious not to have another Gil type lynch. But then, Morsul really is suspicious. I may well be voting for him in a minute. It's down to him and Nog because I need to vote ASAP. |
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#26 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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No more time, so:
++Morsul because he's ten kinds of suspicious, much more suspicious than anyone else. I understand we might be in for Gil#2 here, but I can't not vote for someone who's this suspicious only because of that. |
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#27 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Originally Posted by Coppermirror
Nog's Day 1 voting was suspicious, but in terms of Brin's dreams I think Gil is the better bet. If that turns out to be wrong I'd probably want to vote Nog tomorrow. Saw this as I went through yesterDay and it interested me to see if she'd hold to it. She is still focused on Nog with Morsul a close second so this is consistent. But, and it's an important but, she then votes Morsul having not actually mentioned specifically why he is suspicious. He is 'much more suspicious than anyone else' but no reasoning as to why. By sally - Originally Posted by Brinniel Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul. So she's not dreamt Morsul. That much is pretty clear. If she had, she either wouldn't have expressed a preference or she would have expressed the opposite. She could have dreamt Gil, given this bit and the exchange she had with Cop late yesterDay, but then there's this.... Nooo, I would say it is the 'if it came between him and Rikae' bit that's important. She is making a very clear statement that she won't vote Rikae. I'd say she was the dream there. Plus there was then the statement that Gil was unlikely to be a wizard as Brinn would have voted Gil if she had dreamed him a wizard - followed by a vote for Gil with no further information on why. From that read-through sally and Cop aren't looking great. I'm wary with Morsul. I still think he is suspicious for that comment the other Day. However, I haven't looked at him in particular recently and I wonder if I'm being swayed by that original knee-jerk reaction. I will have another look at him.
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#28 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Kath, as I understood it, Sally was doubtful about Gil having been dreamed, but went on to vote him because of his suspicious posting. As I said to Morsul, I don't really have a problem with that- though of course that may be because it mirrors my own reactions at the time.
x'd with Nog
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#29 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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I am a bit uneasy with Cop, though- even though "walls of text" is her style, she's been doing a lot of it, even for her. And her theories early yesterDay on how the wolves might conduct them- "bussing" their "comrade" Gil without an attempt to save him- could be a sort of pre-explanation for why nobody did, in case people started to wonder later in the Day. Or not. There's little concrete against her.
x'd with Rikae.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#30 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Zil? No idea. I read his posts one time and they look sinister, a second time and I think I'm imagining it.
No, that wasn't very helpful, I know. I know my posts sound disjointed, but I'm having to snatch the time to do them at all. EDIT: x'd since self.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 01-30-2013 at 03:38 PM. |
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#31 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I'd say both McCaber and Copper look (or try to look) helpful while not being that too much. I feel some opportunism there and haven't actually lost my gut distrust for McCaber form the first Day.
Morsul is talking himself into blind alleys and at worst contradicting himself. I'm afraid it is also a playing-style issue (like with Gil). He sounds too much the wrong candidate while and especially because being the "easy vote". Here I agree with Rikae who said there might be too much readiness to go for him... Inzil and Kath I think no one has suspected - which would fit well the scenario where the Wizards had no special candidate for the seer and went for Brinn with pure luck. But that is not exactly a case against them to be sure. Lottie and Sally creep me and Nerwen I'm worried about (although quite a lot against lynching her right now). Rikae most probably is an innocent. So little to say so late in the game...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#32 |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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I would prefer to lynch Nog toDay, but I really don't know how likely that is. I feel like he's been flying too much under the radar, getting in the thick of things and being controversial rarely enough, and generally being quiet enough to let suspicions of him slip away in favor of bolder, more loudly suspicious players. His Day 1 vote still bugs me, and the way he's been playing toDay has been...too agreeable, in a way. It seems like a lot of what he's saying had just been said, and often is the general consensus of the moment. It doesn't feel like the Nog I'm used to playing with, and that makes me very wary.
However, if Nog is not an option (which he might well not be, with twenty minutes left to DL), I'd prefer to see Morsul lynched than Cop or Zil or anyone else you lot are talking about right now. EDIT: xed since Nerwen
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#33 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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In fact, Nog would be especially worried about how his talk of wolves going after seers would make him look, now. The thing is, Brinn by no means looked like a seer who had dreamed of Nog. Why would she lump him together with innocent Gil in that case, and put more emphasis on Gil? So why is Nog so focused on that idea now?
Oh man, only a little time left and I'm still not sure. I would rather vote Inzil, but I don't want to scatter the votes and give the wizards too much power. ![]() |
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#34 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Cab -> Sally
Cop -> Morsul Zil -> Morsul (2) Sally -> Morsul(3) Cab -> Morsul(4) Kath > Sally(2) Left to vote: Loslote, "Lot" Morsul the Dark, "Mors" Nerwen, "Nerve" Nogrod, "Nog" Rikae, "Rick" EDIT: X'd with last three, added Kath's vote. |
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#35 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Morsul:
Day 1: 'will watch' Brinn, Pom is usually suspicious. Only concrete statements in a list post. Knew nothing of Brinn, was correct about Pom. Wolf-mates or lucky comment? Pom's suggestion seems to be fairly genuine little information is better than no information. Genuine or Captain Obvious statement. Either way little need for it to be further commented on unless to try and make Pom look good. With the statement from above, more likely to be wolf-mates. Questions me being a Cobbler and further comments on it. Oddly, actually, he says that the reason was that I said wizards were wonderful - no suggestion that it was anything to do with Oz. That eventually made some sense to me, if he was picking on it just for the 'wonderful' part then that's weird. Day 2: Sorry for low participation on Night 1 had to work a double... ToNight will be better early plus I'll have a few hours before DL. Looking over Night one will post comments. Night activities on the brain? ![]() A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab. I'm sorry I still don't buy this 'hypothetical' thing. You AREN'T making a hypothetical point here in any way. No one, in any scenario, knows Cab is innocent - unless you're a wizard. Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion. Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom. She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate. If Morsul is a wolf this looks good for Lottie ... and possibly incriminate Nog as he is mentioned in the next post as being innocent if Lottie is a wolf. Day 3: Determined Rikae is a frustrated self-voting wolf. I suppose if he hasn't come across Rikae's overreactions before it makes sense. Does seem fairly honestly bewildered by the whole Rikae thing, but if he is a wolf that's easy to put on to push the votes for her. Day 4: Puts himself in the same boat as Gil. If he's a wolf, and therefore knows Gil is innocent, this is a clever move. Still throwing Lottie's name out but takes umbrage at sally being very determined to defend Nerwen. Day 5: Has a suspicion list of Lottie and sally (consistent with yesterDay) and then Nerwen/Nog - no explanation for last two. Then 'Nerwen overtook Nog' - WHY?! Votes: Day 1 - Kath (to me terrible reasoning!) Day 2 - Ozban (so what happened to Lottie being his top suspicion?) Day 3 - Rikae (knee-jerk reaction after Rikae's self-vote. Bit opportunistic.) Day 4 - sally (oddly I agree with the vote, I just think it's suddenly out of nowhere.) Day 5 - sally (consistent with yesterDay)
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#36 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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A re-read has done nothing to quell my suspicions and hopefully they're clearer now too. That said, I think the things he says about sally are entirely right. No reason that's not wolf on wolf this late in the game with sally not hugely suspected. To cast a first vote early and hope for no comeback on it is bold though.
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#37 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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sally, Morsul and Cop are my suspicions - in that order.
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#38 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Quote:
EDIT: xed since Rikae
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#39 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 01-30-2013 at 03:48 PM. Reason: typo, x'd with Nog. |
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#40 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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EDIT: xed since my last
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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