WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nerwen]

Voloalysis

Day One

#3.
Opening banter. Remarks such as "tasting you trolls to see who tastes like a Wizer. So who shall I lick first?" may have been an attempt to hint to the wolves.

It has been suggested (Nog #279, #281, McCaber #286) that it was actually "Seer"-hinting, or was taken as such by the wolves. Pretty thick wolves, is all I can say.


#55.

Originally Posted by Volo

McCaber, your use of suspicious in post #29 felt somewhat exaggerated. Or was it all just observations on humorous exchanges? Or some as actual interpretations of suspicion?

Just a feeler.


#72. Banter; case against Kath is "too harsh". Will consider her innocent "until further notice".
All right– that could have looked rather Seerish: making sure the village knows you haven't actually dreamed the person you're defending.


#108.
Discusses Kath, Morsul, Gil and myself. A long post, but boils down to: "maybe they're sort of suspicious-ish, but also maybe sort-of not". With hindsight, this is just a cobbler who hasn't got a read on anyone yet, and wants to leave himself as much freedom of action as possible. I don't see why it would have rung any alarm bells for the wolves.


#126.
Post about Rikae. Finds (or claims to find) her somewhat suspicious, using the phrase: "now I'm clearly looking more closely at Rikae, so let's see what else there is". This could also have been taken as a Seer-hint.


#132.
Tally. Is "not sure" about me, Pom "feels more genuine", McCaber is "more on the naughty side".


#137.

Ok, Nerwen is the one I find the most suspicious of those who have votes and will vote for her to save McCaber if I can't agree with someone on a more suspicious character. Due to so much submarineing, I don't feel confident about there being a Wizer in the voted lot.

#139. Vote-post.

++Nerwen
This is a bandwagon. McCaber and Pom are less suspicious and they're up to 3 votes, so this is to counter that. Also, lots of talk, little reasoning.

All this shows us the back-to-front reasoning of a cobbler– by the end, after much wavering, he must in truth have decided I was the least likely wolf! I can't imagine any of these last posts would have attracted wolvish attention, except perhaps for the note at #137 on how he didn't feel confident there was a wolf in the voted lot, which like #72, could have been taken as code for "I haven't actually dreamed this person".


Not really very fruitful. May implicate Rikae. However– assuming Volo was the failed Night One kill– I'm surprised he'd look like the best option at this point. I mean, there are possible "Seer-hints" there, but they're also the kind of things anyone might say by chance, too. And meanwhile, there were the Pom-voters. [EDIT: Obviously I meant "the failed Night TWO kill". Duuuuhhh...]


Day Two

#205. Laments the missed kill and congratulates self on not having helped lynch Pom:"Cheers to the Insomniac and to those who spotted Pom (no thanks to me there...)!" Discusses the suspicion of Cop, with myself and Rikae as having laid the groundwork. Is non-committal about me, but states Rikae may have been "preparing a trap" and that "something here smells".

Hey. Guess he'd decided she was innocent, then.



#261.
Long list of "impressions" of other players. This could have been taken as a Seer's coded list, since nearly all say something like "no idea", "under the radar" or if they are more definite, contain a caveat of some kind. This is of course Volocobbler keeping the field open, but once again could have looked like a Seer's insurance against being posthumously misread.

The exceptions:

Boromir88, "Bore" - something doesn't fit, actually my impression is a bit like when we were Wolf partners ages ago.
(...)
Nerwen, "Nerve" - I've done quite a lot of rethinking about my attitude towards her yesterday, since it bugged me that I ended up voting her while not too sure about her guilt, the other candidates felt less suspicious. I admit, I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case.
(...)
Rikae, "Rick" - I'm growingly more wary with Rikae. Her actions seem like Pom^2. She's been influencing without answering for the responcibility.

The problem with this is of course that there are three names in this category and there could have only been two Seer-dreams.



#264. Vote-post.

Originally Posted by Volo

Ok:

++Ozban

Morsul feels Innocent.

In the previous post, Volo had said of these two:

Originally Posted by Volo

Morsul the Dark, "Mors" - I don't recall playing with him, but he seems genuine and I would feel surprised if he were a Wizer.
(...)
Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.

In other words, exactly the same kind of statement: "probably innocent but I don't really know". This should rule out the comment about Morsul "feeling innocent" being taken as a Seer-hint.

As you see, I am chiefly looking at this with regard to Volo's possible "Seerishness". As this is a large village and as the game has so far been going quite poorly for the wolves, it seems to me they wouldn't want to beat about the bush with their kills– and as Volo would have very likely ended up on the chopping block before long anyway, it also seems to me the wolves would need a really good reason for choosing him.

However, as you see the "evidence" is on the thin side– there are certainly things that could have looked Seerish, but would they have been enough? I'm not sure. It is possible that my assumption here is wrong, and that the wolves were more concerned with creating diversion, laying false trails etc, and/or that they were too worried about losing the kill to go for a better choice– this would especially hold if Volo was in fact the target both Nights. (It's been suggested he wasn't.)

That said, it seems to me both Rikae and Boro do merit some attention, particularly the former.

EDIT:X'd since Brinniel at #290. Edit2: correction.