WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Bane Mantra]

Originally Posted by Volo

Due to so much submarineing, I don't feel confident about there being a Wizer in the voted lot.

I can agree with this reasoning, from a more mathematical standpoint: there are 5 trolls for whom votes have been cast. Roughly a fifth of us. Out of those, there's a 1 in 4 chance that one will be a Wizzard, which results in a roughly 4% chance of lynching a ruddy rotten Wizzard toDayNight.

As I've said, however, there are so many of us that our lynching probability will be low tonight, but DayNight1 isn't about certainty, it's about lynching the most likely to be a Wizzard.

I admit to having a slight handicap toDayNight, as many references have been made to playstyle, and my being very very new doesn't give me an aid in hunting Wizzards. ToMorrow, I'm sure I'll have more to say, analyzing the Wizzards' kill and the voting patterns of toDayNight and such. Is this a cop out? A little bit, I'll admit, but I can promise you I won't cop out like this again.

Pom is my number one suspect, but even then I have little to go on - her bandwagoning and then incongruous statement about watching Cop's voters is very strange, the strangest thing to go down toDayNight.

Also, to avoid confusion, I am male.

x'ed with Oz, Volo and Gil