Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[Pomegranate]

Sorry, Morsul, I was reacting to Steve's post rather than yours ^^

Agh. I should be voting pretty much now, and I feel I'm going to be badly off due to the fact that we haven't heard of phantom and his dream (or none?) yet. I think I'll go for one of the three late Eomer-voters, for I don't think I have time and energy to go through everyone today and I'm pretty sure there's at least one KM in there.

The problem is, all of them look decent to me at the moment - or at least reasonable in the way they've seemed reasonable to me before. However, there's something in sally's behaviour that's fishy - the same fishy as always or a wolfy one, I dare not say, but fishy anyways.

Indeed, Morsul was relatively jumpy. However, I feel like that's something that is easy to grab as a wolf and start elaborating from that. And, not knowing Morsul outside of this game, his logic would still seem valid enough, and I feel like sally's tearing it apart just for the sake of the process. Also there was a lot of suspicion towards Morsul yesterday - maybe sally's following from that, assuming that it will be easy enough to get people to hunt Morsul down.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Clearly. But which was your reason, Morsul? Were you doing it because you thought I was guilty, because I was “bandwagoning” on you, or because you wanted to save Eomer? If it’s the third, why not just vote Steve? Oh, right. He looked fishy to you yesterDay but not vote-worthy. Why is that? If you were so concerned about saving Eomer, why go for a case that depended on Dun not following through with information instead of putting Steve further in the lead to protect Eomer?

Did you read what Morsul wrote? He assumed that Eomer was a seer and you were guilty, these two parts of the same set of interpretations? It would make sense to vote for you then instead of Steve. Two relatively reachable goals at once - saving the seer, lynching a KM.

[Pomegranate]

On Eonwe I can't really get a good read, but he's definitely less suspicious than sally. And Brin, I feel like I'd need to understand the situation with Boro and the KM and why exactly was Boro killed a lot more to decide that Brin is either innocent or quilty, though I feel like there's a hint there for either. My brain just can't get around it, and even though I try and try to grasp it is escapes. I think I'm leaning to voting for sally pretty strongly, but I'll have a moment still, so if someone has any reasonable objections or points to make about it, I'll listen before I cast my vote, which will happen in about 30 minutes.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Agh. I should be voting pretty much now, and I feel I'm going to be badly off due to the fact that we haven't heard of phantom and his dream (or none?) yet.
.

I think last night's dream went to Shasta. Unless I read it wrong:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

See, the thing is, the person revealed to me was an innocent Phantom, so I could definitely see Boro being a dead Elendil. Which... is sad.

Which would mean in phantom's chain he'd be the dreamer tonight if hopefully Boro was isildur and not Elendil or Anarion. in which case it's a tossup which I hopes comes heads up for the villiage not the other way around.

[Pomegranate]

thus the first night's should've gone to phantom, but i'll leave that for someone else to explain. I'll have to go, so ++sally, do catch some baddies while i'm gone, please!

[the phantom]

Awake and feeling much better than yesterday. Trying to get caught up...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Pom

Votes: Brinniel and Nerwen made points on not adding new people to the voting. I'll need to check the times, but I don't like that point - if you don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM, it's better to (potentially) lose a vote than to vote an innocent. And if you do, why keep mentioning that you only vote within the already-voted, since you'd then have other things to say as well.

I disagree. For one, I never said I didn't suspect anyone already on the voting list...obviously I'd never vote for someone I didn't suspect. And I mentioned it because I do believe spreading the votes out too much unnecessarily is a bad idea. When the votes are spread out too much it makes it easier to end with a multiple person tie and I hate ties. Now if someone doesn't suspect anyone already voted for, yes it's worth spreading out the votes to bring in a candidate you actually suspect. But if you suspect multiple people, why not vote for the player among your suspects that has already been voted for and increase the chances that one of your suspects gets lynched.

Originally Posted by Pom

Brinn, as already mentioned, suspects Morsul, yet votes for Eomer. Were you hoping that someone would take your lead and vote Morsul, so that you wouldn't be the first one? Or what?

Morsul was one among three suspects I listed in my post. What makes you think I suspected Morsul more than Eomer? Because I didn't.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Shasta

See, the thing is, the person revealed to me was an innocent Phantom, so I could definitely see Boro being a dead Elendil. Which... is sad.

Yeah...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So phantom was the Night One Dreamer, then? His earlier posting toDay is then some kind of elaborate ploy (but what do you expect?) Or did Elendil depart from the plan?

Check the "elaborate ploy" option. Sorry if that's annoying, but I just wanted to float as many kill strategies as possible to see if people would toss out other interesting possibilities, or if anyone would agree with one of them in such a way that indicated a bit too much familiarity. Additionally I wanted to see what reactions would be to Boro being assumed to be various Gifteds (if the KMs hoped he was Elendil but then he appeared only to have been Anarion would perhaps a trace of disappointment leak through?). Etc. etc....

Yeah, Night 1 I dreamed of Brin. Thus Boro was almost certainly Elendil, and frankly he had me squirming from the very start. His "I dreamed Brin innocent" bit I found both helpful and perplexing, as there was no possible way he could've known to trust me. Had I been a KM he was totally outing himself to me on the first day!

Really the only explanation I could think of was recalling things he'd said in previous villages, along the lines of- "You may as well just trust Phantom from the start, as he can be quite beneficial. If you're wrong and he's evil, you're screwed anyway, so you may as well trust him and hope for the best."

So in light of such comments what he was doing made perfect sense, but it was still a bit annoying.

So yeah- that's why I was most definitely concerned with passing info to Elendil, because I had the info. But naturally I wasn't about to appear as if I had info, particularly after I came to suspect that Boro was purposefully pretending to be a dreamer so as to clearly not be Elendil in the eyes of the KMs, which frankly was a pretty good idea. (Unfortunately this group of KMs seems not to be operating within the restraints of logic. )

Anyway, Shasta- thanks for giving me that time at the beginning to run my little games. I sort of figured you'd sit back and watch for a while since you held the trump cards...

[Brinniel]

Well, it sounds rather likely now that Boro was Elendil, which is certainly disappointing. If not, then phantom or me would probably receive the next dream, so by toMorrow (assuming both of us survive), we will probably know Boro's identity for sure.

On the bright side, at least the village has three known innocents and the baddies can't eliminate us all at once. Plus, they still have the ranger to worry about.

Btw, after mentioning ties in my last post, I just noticed this in the rules:

Originally Posted by Galadriel

In case of a tie, neither party is lynched.

Which is an interesting concept I don't believe I've seen before. Certainly better than having both parties lynched, though a no-lynch isn't exactly helpful either. I suppose if multiple candidates are neck and neck, and a player doesn't think any of them are guilty and putting another candidate into play would be a throwaway (or a KM wants to save a packmate), creating a tie could prove useful...though also risky.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Did you read what Morsul wrote? He assumed that Eomer was a seer and you were guilty, these two parts of the same set of interpretations? It would make sense to vote for you then instead of Steve. Two relatively reachable goals at once - saving the seer, lynching a KM.

I can certainly understand wanting to keep Eomer's role under wraps, but the alleged logic of this falls apart under further inspection.

1. Dun put Sally on his three person list. Fair enough. Everyone had a list, and everyone's bound to be on one or two people's lists at least, so no problems here.

2. Eomer voted for Sally. The logic holds up so far. If Eomer is (or rather was) the seer, it makes absolute sense for him to vote for a guilty Sally if Dun had her on that list.

3. Dun voted for Eomer. If Dun received a dream, he'd know the results, but not who sent it to him, so there's little chance he would know not to vote for Eomer. However, if he's the one who received the dream and it said Sally was guilty, why wouldn't he vote for Sally? Therein lies my biggest problem with the way Morsul is explaining his motives. He's claiming to act upon information that the person who had it didn't even act upon.

4. Morsul voted for Sally. As far as his suspicions go, that's fine, as he had voiced his suspicion of both Sally and Steve, and Eomer wasn't actually in too much danger at the time, so it's not a huge issue, but when he further "explains" his vote, he refers to his vote as "try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.

So yes, him voting for me kept Eomer "safe" for the Day (except for the part where Eomer was lynched at the end of it). However, voting for me rather than Steve also gave Steve a better chance of survival. It's often convenient for a villain to suspect their fellows, yet in the end decide an innocent is a better lynch option. It's not a new trick.

Am I ready to say without doubt that Steve and Morsul are fellows? Certainly not, but if one turns out to be against us, I'll not be surprised if the other is as well. Morsul's quasi-guilty behavior is definitely not a notion that should be tossed aside as Pom is doing, which is another concern entirely.



Not x'd, but I do need to read everything since the quoted post in more detail.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

"try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.
.

I wasn't 100% on the idea hence semi-not-random. It was just the only thing I could see that would explain his vote at all. And you're right I Should have looked at Zil's vote but I didn't because I didn't think to. Luckily I'm not any police force, solve rates would be awful.

Sally's suspicions of me today seem much better than yesterday. and she's right Pom sort of tossed them aside fairly easily... a bit suspicious. (I know someone not suspecting me is more suspicious than the person who does, welcome to my brain)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I wasn't 100% on the idea hence semi-not-random. It was just the only thing I could see that would explain his vote at all. And you're right I Should have looked at Zil's vote but I didn't because I didn't think to. Luckily I'm not any police force, solve rates would be awful.

I find the last sentence amusing. I actually have solved one today, with what seems like 100 other things going on.

I'm glad to see the focus on Boro has eased somewhat. Yes, it was important to take a look at what might have made him a target, but that only takes us so far.
It's only useful in ferreting out baddies if he said something that we can narrow down as alarming to one in particular. Otherwise, they went after him for A. Looking like Elendil; or B. Looking like a Gifted.

Anyway, I think YesterDay's votes are more helpful. Also, just skimming the last few hours, I think people have some interesting points about Pom. Some of her suspicions look rather forced.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[the phantom]

As soon as I get back I'll do a look at the voting yesterday and give impressions...

[satansaloser2005]

Do we have any idea if Mänwe will be back before deadline? I'd hate for someone to be modfired so early in the game.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I can certainly understand wanting to keep Eomer's role under wraps, but the alleged logic of this falls apart under further inspection.

1. Dun put Sally on his three person list. Fair enough. Everyone had a list, and everyone's bound to be on one or two people's lists at least, so no problems here.

2. Eomer voted for Sally. The logic holds up so far. If Eomer is (or rather was) the seer, it makes absolute sense for him to vote for a guilty Sally if Dun had her on that list.

3. Dun voted for Eomer. If Dun received a dream, he'd know the results, but not who sent it to him, so there's little chance he would know not to vote for Eomer. However, if he's the one who received the dream and it said Sally was guilty, why wouldn't he vote for Sally? Therein lies my biggest problem with the way Morsul is explaining his motives. He's claiming to act upon information that the person who had it didn't even act upon.

4. Morsul voted for Sally. As far as his suspicions go, that's fine, as he had voiced his suspicion of both Sally and Steve, and Eomer wasn't actually in too much danger at the time, so it's not a huge issue, but when he further "explains" his vote, he refers to his vote as "try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.

So yes, him voting for me kept Eomer "safe" for the Day (except for the part where Eomer was lynched at the end of it). However, voting for me rather than Steve also gave Steve a better chance of survival. It's often convenient for a villain to suspect their fellows, yet in the end decide an innocent is a better lynch option. It's not a new trick.

Am I ready to say without doubt that Steve and Morsul are fellows? Certainly not, but if one turns out to be against us, I'll not be surprised if the other is as well. Morsul's quasi-guilty behavior is definitely not a notion that should be tossed aside as Pom is doing, which is another concern entirely.



Not x'd, but I do need to read everything since the quoted post in more detail.

See this while incorrect conclusion makes sense to me. If I was Sally I'd suspect me. It was my careless research that's at fault but there it is. Does this clear Sally for me? No but this looks like a lot of work just to throw an innocent under the bus for a KM.

I'm looking through Pom's posts righ now but so far, one thing that's interesting is his suspicion of Brinn, granted this is before phantom confirms her innocence but for the most part it seemed most agreed she probably was innocent based on Boro's post.

X'ed phantom

[Mänwe]

I'm here now-thankfully its the weekend. Thoughts to come soon!

[Loslote]

Innocent as the bright morning star or something poetical like that
Lottie
Shasta
tp
Brinn

I see no *reason* to suspect
Manwe
Nerwen
Sally
Pom

I see no reason to suspect...but feel like I maybe ought to
Zil
Morsul
Steve

Unless I start seeing actual reasons for suspicion, I'll have to go with one of the three from the latter group. I don't like voting on 'well, he feels like he maybe might be a wolf...' so I'll be looking through the thread, seeing if I can't maybe find any more substantial reasons for voting. I don't have anything else to do until DL, so I should be around.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I said I was here and reading, and then got pulled away. Let me get a few thoughts in order real fast.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

Certainly there were other targets for a Pomwolf, but to seemingly discount her as a threat based on her suspicion of Brinn seems unwarranted.

As a matter of fact, I still feel Pom is somewhat dodgy and her suspicions seem forced. Barring new developments, that's probably where my vote will go.

[the phantom]

Just so we're clear of the position here-

Population: 11
Good vs Bad: 8 vs 3
Known Innocents: 3

Assuming an incorrect lynch-
10
7 vs 3
3

The baddies kill Amandil tonight, as he is the one guaranteed not to be protected tonight. Thus tomorrow-
9
6 vs 3
2

If the Baddies elect to leave Amandil alive to avoid his power and go after Brin or I and guess wrong (Anarion will be protecting one of us no doubt), then we'll sit here tomorrow-
10
7 vs 3
3

And in that circumstance the Baddies would then be forced to attempt a repeat kill the following night as Anarion would split duties between Amandil and the remaining known, meaning even with yet another bad lynch-
8
5 vs 3
2

At that point things would be ridiculously weighted against he Baddies despite lynches favoring them, and particularly if Anarion and/or Isildur is still alive, as that would leave even in a simple dice roll situation a 60-75% chance of lynching a Baddie, and it would be ridiculous to think that absolutely no decent suspicions would emerge by that point.

In short, due to the untenable situation the KMs would be in with a failed kill, we'll almost certainly lose Shasta tonight, which sucks, but at least we get a teensy kickback from his death. And if we can lynch correctly either today or tomorrow I think we have a puncher's chance of winning even without Elendil, so I don't think we need be overly depressed.

[Brinniel]

Pom earlier discusses her disapproval of Nerwen and me not wanting to spread out the lynch candidates and I don't like how she jumped to conclusions (saying several people pushed aside their suspicion of Morsul to vote Eomer instead...you can have multiple suspects, you know). However, I'm not sure that's cause for her to be a baddie. And I wouldn't think a baddie would feel the need to be so forceful in her opinions at this point.

If Pom is innocent, I could see as a prime target for a baddie to try to get her lynched. After all, she directs some suspicion toward a now known innocent and makes some illogical statements. That could easily give reason for someone to vote her. Plus, she won't be around for the rest of toDay, so she can't even defend herself from suspicion. So yeah, I might watch those attempting to bandwagon against her. So far that would be Inzil and Morsul.

Of course, this would all be invalid if Pom is in fact a baddie. But regardless, I'd rather not vote for her because I would like to hear from her more toMorrow.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Pomegranate

#28 - Posts about what Amandil and Elendil should do. Sides with an Amandil reveal and random lists Day 1. This -

Originally Posted by Pom

And just in case - if a KM decides to do a fake-reveal, Amandil, at least counter that! Otherwise we're stuck with a lot of problematicly full trust to a KM, and potentially to a chain of people after that.

-strikes me as odd and I'm not sure why, unless it's just that a KM revealing as Amandil that day would have been incredibly suicidal.

#31 - more about dream lists.

#34 - defends him/herself to Inzil. This -

Originally Posted by Pom

There is a reason why I haven't posted a list yet, that's because I don't want everyone to just jump blindly in

- confuses me; what harm was there at this point in time to actually doing what you wanted everyone else to do, post a list? This almost looks overly concerned with wanting to go with whatever the majority wants.

#38 - more about dreams.

#45 - wants to vote. I agree.

#75 - finally posts list.

#84 - posts a feeling-list about everyone. Is pretty noncommittal about everyone except Nerwen and Inzil. The interesting part to me is that Pom says [/b]Inzil[/b] looks too "explanatory", basing part of this on this quote by Inzil -

Originally Posted by Inzil

All right. I'm just looking for holes in this deal, before everyone just jumps in.

- which looks eerily like something Pom him/herself said earlier. This brand of hypocrisy always makes me raise an eyebrow.

#191 - This bit, I'm bothered by.

Originally Posted by Pom

Votes: Brinniel and Nerwen made points on not adding new people to the voting. I'll need to check the times, but I don't like that point - if you don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM, it's better to (potentially) lose a vote than to vote an innocent. And if you do, why keep mentioning that you only vote within the already-voted, since you'd then have other things to say as well.

It's actually pretty acceptable to not spread out votes late in the day; any baddies that have saved their votes have that much more control of the lynch. Also, this is before phantom mentioned he'd dreamed of Brinn.

#193 - reiterates suspicion of not wanting to bring in a new candidate for lynch close to DL.

#195 - this is the second time Pom has mentioned people suspecting Morsul but voting Eomer.

#197 - explains him/herself to Nerwen (and backtracks a bit?) Thinks if Boro was killed for being dangerous, then the KMs should have rightly gone for phantom.

#208 - states intention to vote for one of the later Eomwer-voters in general, and Sally in particular. Seems to be mostly because Sally suspected Morsul earlier, and Pom thinks she's just jumping on other people's suspicions. But didn't Sally suspect Morsul yesterday too? Something to look into.

#209 - considers Eonwe to be much less suspicious than Sally.

#210 - votes Sally.



Conclusions -

There's definitely something weird there. I'll need to go back and see what Sally has said, but it seemed to me that Pom was pushing her a bit hard on not really much. In addition, I feel like his Day 1 vote for Inzil was based on a double standard. I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him today, but I do want to look at some other people.