Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

I don't think that we have much to learn from yesterDay's voting. It would be a good tactic for a wolf to vote for Inzil there and leave the innocents to vote for Kitanna, and after the point when it looked as if innocents might not go for Kitanna it would still be good for self preservation.

Eomer

In general, I think Eomer has been sensible and logical throughout the game. However, there are some points of concern.

Originally Posted by Eomer

"Drat and bebother this village. I don't like either of the two votes for Nessa NOR do I like Nessa's vote for Pitch."

Then in a later comment he votes for Sally.

If he's a wolf, it's impossible for him to be defending a Pitchwolf here. It is possible that he's a wolf defending a fellow Nessawolf and trying to discourage a third vote for her. He explains his reasoning later, and it makes decent sense.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Eomer insists on questioning Inzil. I haven't played with him as a wolf yet, but I imagine he would have no trouble dumping a mate into deep water. This would make Wolfomer look good later if Inzilafolf is lynched: Eomer casts some doubt on him ("see, I suspected him too!") but at such a time when it was safe to do so.

This is a good point. It was a very safe time for him to be suspicious of Inzil.

His comment earlier about thinking he sees a move and considering the possibility of "Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates" (followed by a later vote for Sally) may have been an attempt to cast suspicion on the latter two innocents. Hmm...This is quite vague, but I wonder if, given that Inzil was looking suspicious at the end of Day 1, Nerwen being killed was a response to Eomer's analysis? Perhaps to try to make him or Inzil look less suspicious. I'm not sure this reasoning follows, so I'll look it over again once I'm done.

He still voted for Sally even after Nessa's suspicious move. It was essentially a throwaway vote, and it came a minute after G55's vote for Nessa, so he may or may not have seen the latter.

Inzilwolf's analysis pegged Eomer as a wolf. Bluff or double bluff? What a headache. It's probably better just to ignore this point.

Eomer says that

Eomer says For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.

He cannot be covering for a packmate here. If he's a wolf, he's being very reasonable as a cover. He also thinks that Pitch is probably innocent and that Inzil was trying to buddy up to him before. Again, this can't possibly be an act of covering for a packmate.

I think that if I were an innocent in Eomer's position, I would probably also have reached the conclusion of Shasta being the most suspicious.

Originally Posted by Pitch

As to his suspecting Shasta over me, I can only say it seems a very Eomerish thing.

This worries me a bit. At this point I do wish I had more recent info on the other players and was aware of what is usually in-character for them.

Shasta

He really hasn't posted much, and that's worrying. He made the first vote for Nessa, which I do not think does anything much to prove innocence. At the time, Nessa had not done anything hugely suspicious (although I think it was enough to base a vote on at a pinch).

So - on Day 1, Shasta says very little, and then votes Nessa. I think he had reasonable grounds for his vote, given the circumstances, but it could have been a vote for a packmate which he wasn't expecting anyone to follow up on seriously. Galadriel55 makes a point in her analysis that Shasta's vote changes the dynamics of the Day's voting and that there was no real need for him to keep away from the Kitanna-wagon. I'm not quite so sure about this. To me it looks as if that would have been a safe vote for a wolf.

But I see that Pitchwife doesn't seem to think so.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

meaning if this was a wolf-on-wolf vote, he could not know Nessa would end up dead - although he had reason to expect Nerwen might vote her too (on the off chance of a Nerwen vote on D1), so it was risky as well as unnecessary, if not as risky as if he'd made the vote later.

(To be clear, I'm talking about the guy who won his last wolf game triumphantly over the corpses of his ruthlessly bussed packmates, so there's little in wolf-on-wolfing that I'd put beyond him.)

So Shasta is certainly capable of throwing his packmates shamelessly under a bus.

What bothers me most about Shasta is something Inzil said on Day 2.

Originally Posted by Inzilwolf

"Shasta? Well, once again why vote for Nessawolf? Granted, as I said, Nessa's vote for Pitch looked pretty darned fishy, but still, it seems he could have found some other option to buy his mate another Day. "

Inzilis misleading there, making it sound as if Shasta voted for Nessa after she placed her suspicious vote, rather than before.

One thing that makes me think Pitch is more likely to be innocent is that he picked Inzil up on this.

Originally Posted by Pitch

"Shasta voted Nessa before she voted me. He was laconic enough about his reasons, but if I understand him right, he was going exclusively on the latching-on point mentioned by Nerwen."

But was Inzil trying to subtly deflect attention from a Shastawolf (in circumstances where someone might well notice) or was he trying to put suspicion onto an innocent? Or maybe he just made a mistake. Inzil knew he was going down at that point, whether yesterDay or toDay.

G55 mentioned that something Shasta said on Day 2 (about how a frustrated Seer-Kitanna might withhold an innocent's name) helped her a lot in her reasoning for voting Inzil. That reasoning also helped me out a lot. But, just because it's sensible doesn't mean he can't be a wolf.

I see Shasta's just made a post in which he's quite suspicious of me. I'll consider this after I've finished writing up what I meant to in this post.


Pitchwife

Not here on Day 1, of course, so nothing to learn from that.

Originally Posted by Pitch

If you're Radagast and they'd killed you, we'd most likely have lynched Kit toDay anyway, whereas this way, they gain a chance of getting you lynched and using toNight's kill on someone else. If the third wolf hadn't come under any suspicion worth mentioning yet, it would be a viable strategy.

This is true. However, this and a few other things do look a little suspicious, paired up with the vote for Kitanna. It's a reasonable conclusion to come to. In fact, Pitch's behaviour here strikes me as something a wolf would really want to avoid. It could be a situation of "A wolf wouldn't say something this suspicious, so I'll say it" but that in itself is very risky, and the sensible thing for a wolf to do that day, knowing that Inzil would be a known wolf by toDay at the latest, would be not to get too close to Inzil.

Saying that he had thought Inzil might be Radagast based on his Day 1 hinting makes some sense, and even known innocent Sally was taken in by that.

I think that was has persuaded me is that Pitch has not been behaving the way a sensible wolf might. Essentially, he's been behaving in a way that a wolf could easily have avoided. As I write this I'm feeling a little less sure of his innocence. At present I'm not planning to vote for him, but I'll check over other people's analysis and anything said since and think it over again.

Galadriel55

If she's a wolf, she's been playing a very calm game and has failed to make any mistakes. I think she's been under the least suspicion out of the non-known-innocents still in the game, which makes me worry a little bit just in case we've been played very well.

Her vote for Nessa was third and the final one needed. She could have been hoping that Eomer or Nerwen would vote for Kitanna and thus give Nessa a fighting chance. But Nerwen did have some mild suspicion of Nessa, and a wolf might reasonably have thought she would have voted for her, had she voted. In which case giving the final vote for Nessa would be a bright move which could reasonably insulate G55 against much suspicion for the rest of the game. Even so, that would be very risky and probably unnecessary. If G55 is a bold wolf, I think she's done very well. But I think that if she's innocent as I expect, her train of thought was logical in the circumstances.

Kitanna said that

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I can see G55-wolf steering votes toward a packmate, but I don't know if I can see it on Day 1.

Kitanna has presumably played with G55 before and would have an idea of this.

G55 indicated early on that she would vote Inzil unless something spectacular happened. Now, Inzil would have been caught anyway by toDay, so no wolf really gains from where they placed their vote yesterday, but her analysis was fairly persuasive and she might as well have placed her vote right then. Wolves would still have benefited heavily from the extra Day it would have taken to lynch Inzil, had we not believed Kitanna in the end.

At this point I still don't have any real suspicion of G55. Given that I think the wolf is likely in the other three, I'm going to continue assuming that G55 is innocent.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I will vote

++SHASTA

And I will also say, clearly risking accusations of 'buddying up', that Coppermirror's posts cannot be those of a first time player. I believe she may be a Downer of the past, returning under a new username.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55, I seem to remember talking about Kit a bit on Day One (to defend her from Inzil); I talked about Nessa when she received votes and voted herself. Don't really understand this criticism; don't really understand why Pitch is so compelled by it.

And I said you barely mentioned them, not that you ignored them completely.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Having said that, I feel like I don't have much choice but to go with the self-preservation vote -

Did you write that especially for players to jump on it? I know that even when your eyes are blurring you would not make such a slip, if slip it is, and I understand exactly why an innocent could say that ("I know I'm innocent, I'm not sure about him"), but why to you have to tempt the radar to twitch?

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If he's a wolf, it's impossible for him to be defending a Pitchwolf here. It is possible that he's a wolf defending a fellow Nessawolf and trying to discourage a third vote for her. He explains his reasoning later, and it makes decent sense.

Can you explain why he could not be defending a Pitchwolf? Do you mean he did not? Or that he would not theoretically do that? Or that the wolf he's defending is rather Nessa than Pitch? I just don't get the logic in this statement.

I don't think Pitch needed much defending at that point, since no one would follow Nessa's vote anyway.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

So - on Day 1, Shasta says very little, and then votes Nessa. I think he had reasonable grounds for his vote, given the circumstances, but it could have been a vote for a packmate which he wasn't expecting anyone to follow up on seriously. Galadriel55 makes a point in her analysis that Shasta's vote changes the dynamics of the Day's voting and that there was no real need for him to keep away from the Kitanna-wagon. I'm not quite so sure about this. To me it looks as if that would have been a safe vote for a wolf.

I said that about his Day 2 vote. There was also a Kitwagon that Day, so it must have confused you. Shasta was the first to clearly favour Kit as the true Seer, after 3 votes for Zil.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

G55 mentioned that something Shasta said on Day 2 (about how a frustrated Seer-Kitanna might withhold an innocent's name) helped her a lot in her reasoning for voting Inzil. That reasoning also helped me out a lot. But, just because it's sensible doesn't mean he can't be a wolf.

The last bit is completely true. May I just correct that Shasta's reasoning, while helpful, only made up about 1/5 of my decision?

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

And I will also say, clearly risking accusations of 'buddying up', that Coppermirror's posts cannot be those of a first time player. I believe she may be a Downer of the past, returning under a new username.

Do you have anyone in particular in mind? I do concur that Cop is playing exceptionally well for her first game.



I don't know why deciding who to vote in the last couple Days was so easy for me, but now it's back to normal, ie I have no idea.

[Galadriel55]

I think I shall be voting for Eomer in another 15 minutes. I don't want to put a third name into the tally, and between Shasta and Eomer the latter is more suspicious at the moment.

Let's see if the world can turn over in only about 15 minutes.

Edit: xed with sally - yay, I'm not alone! - yes, about 30 minutes.

[satansaloser2005]

Mayhaps I could get a vote count? That would be superb.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Mayhaps I could get a vote count? That would be superb.

Pitchwife voted Eomer.
Eomer voted Shasta.
Shasta voted Eomer.

[Galadriel55]

I see the world hasn't turned over yet.

++Eomerwarg




I said warg, but I hope wolf.


Edit: xed with Cop's vote.

[satansaloser2005]

I feel like a wolf!Shasta would be much more frustrated by his pack's circumstances so far.

[B]++Eomer]/b[

Sorry. No time.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Can you explain why he could not be defending a Pitchwolf? Do you mean he did not? Or that he would not theoretically do that? Or that the wolf he's defending is rather Nessa than Pitch? I just don't get the logic in this statement.

He couldn't have been defending a Pitchwolf because there were only three wolves in the game. Now we know two of them, I've been finding it useful for eliminating possible motivations. I'll look at your post more overNight, sorry for not going over it properly right now but it is coming up to voting time and I'm rushed.

Anyway...I would have liked to hear what Sally has to say about who she currently suspects before I place my vote, but I think I need to vote now, so I will.

++Eomer

I also suspect Shasta pretty strongly, mostly because of what might have been an attempt from Inzil to protect him, so I plan to vote for him next time if Eomer isn't a wolf.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

He couldn't have been defending a Pitchwolf because there were only three wolves in the game. Now we know two of them, I've been finding it useful for eliminating possible motivations. I'll look at your post more overNight, sorry for not going over it properly right now but it is coming up to voting time and I'm rushed.

Ah, so it's like he was protecting Nessa, therefore not Pitch. Gotcha.