Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

Just working through my thoughts on Nessa's vote and the wolves' choice to go for Nerwen here. I'll look at the content of the rest of the discussion on this properly once I'm done. (And I still need to write up some analysis...)

Why did Nessa vote for Pitchwife?
Nessa knows whether Pitchwife is innocent or not. She placed her vote at 12:43 PM GMT. Menel in the admin thread said at 12:54 PM GMT that he wouldn't mod-fire Pitchwife on the first day, so Nessa did not know at that time that there would be no mod-firing.

Why would she vote for a Pitchwolf?
At the time she probably thought he would be mod-fired. Then it could be as Pitchwife suggested, with her making a throwaway vote for a packmate in an attempt to look innocent.

Why would she vote for an innocent Pitchwife?
If Kitanna is innocent, Nessa was aware of this and might consider Pitchwife a safe vote. Most people didn't look very suspicious yesterDAY.

If Kitanna is a wolf, Nessa might have thought Pitchwife was a safe vote too, distancing herself from the lynching. She might also have wanted to take attention away from Kitanna. In any case, I think it's unlikely that she was a sacrificial wolf, because I don't think wolves benefit much from a bold strategy here.

Why was Nerwen killed?
She didn't vote. Ordinarily if I heard that in a tale I would see that as a sign that wolves were trying not to be traced, but I'm not sure about it now.

They must have had something to gain from it. If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Good questions both, I'd like to hear that too. But Cop, why did you think Nerwen a possible seer?

She mentioned Nessa a few times, but was fairly mild and reasonable about it. She also mentioned a few other people in a light sort of way, emphasising that she wasn't making accusations. It could have been a subtle way for Radagast to hide an actual suspicion on the first DAY.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay. Pretty "thin", indeed, but I suppose it's enough to justify Zil's "ill-defined feeling of unease" comment, given this is Day One and there hasn't been that much else to analyse yet. Sally's vote, though, looks pretty opportunistic and her explanation sounds like hedging.

–Also– as a general thing, I find myself looking askance at people (Zil, Nessa, Sally), who paint lack of gifteds or excess of wolves as a positive thing, mostly because there's then statistically less chance of hitting the former than the latter. While true, this quite misses the point. I mean, I suppose one should always look for the silver lining and all that– but it's also often in the lupine interest to play down the village's danger. (None of this is an accusation, mind you– still much too early for that.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?