ARDA CUP Football 2012

[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

As the semis of the 2012 Arda Cup approach it is an exciting, yet anxious time for all. Statists and media personalities rush to get the latest stories of club house gossip and predictions. Here at TTN we like to bring unbiased and honest predictions. It's been an up and down year, as the team salaries have thrown an extra challenge and there's been more balance than ever before.

We bounced back fairly well last round, with just a serious complete miss on the Real Valinor and Rohan match. However, we return to the world of predictions, because we take serious issue with AKM's report, particularly in the Eriador-Erebor game. So let's start there:

Erebor vs. Eriador:

It seems as if since Erebor knocked out the presumed favorites, they are suddenly the sexy pick for AKM:

Let’s start with the forwards: Glorfindel (4+2) and Smaug (4+1) seem neck to neck in effectivity, but The Witch King has played a bit under the expectations (3+1, though). Meanwhile Bard the Bowman (3+0) has risen from nowhere while Thranduil (1+3) is their passing genius. So far from Eriador being stronger the numbers suggest the teams are quite even in their attack. And in the last two games Erebor’s attack has looked like the deadlier one indeed.

This is a rather deceptive slight of hand. "Let's show the production of 2 Eriador players, and 3 Erebor players and make it seem as if the better production has come from Erebor." The bottomline is, both teams have scored the same number of goals, and thus their production is the same. Yet, reading AKM's trick of showing you an extra Erebor player (Thranduil) leads one to think Erebor has the better attack. The point here, is AKM is quick to point out the surprise performance from Bard. But not mention the importance of Eriador's midfield. Arassuil (0+2), Arveleg (1+1), Arahael (1+1).

Now some might wonder, have you just not did what you accuse AKM of doing...by showing more Eriador players it looks like they're the better offense? Not so fast, my friends. My point here is Eriador's mid-field has been highly productive with a combined 2 goals and 4 assissts. They are the table setters who feed passes to Glorfindel and the Witch-King to finish. They have done their jobs very well up to this point, yet AKM does not even aknowledge their production, preferring only to show you the flashier combination of Smaug, Thranduil, and Bard.

How long is it since Smaug bought the AKM? What was the promised price? Those are the questions we are asking.

Eriador and Erebor's offensive and defensive stats are essentially a complete wash. One might make the argument Erebor has had the tougher opponents so far, but this ignores the fact that Eriador themselves are a tough opponent! When the stats are essentially a wash, you go with the more steady and sure hands of Elrond over a team that is just coming off the high of beating a team like FC Valinor. Getting the upset is a great feeling, but how you handle the after-effect and sudden "fame" is another.

We can see it going to a shootout, but think Eriador gets an OT goal and wins 2-1.

On to the other Semi-final...

AC Beleriand vs. Real Valinor

We must admit, as a Middle-earth based sports station, the Beleriand and Aman teams are not our forte. So take this one with a pinch of salt. There's just something about Real Valinor we don't like. They seem to be a bit more inconsistant than a solid well rounded playoff team. Particularly the defense, which has conceded the most goals of the teams remaining and AC Beleriand has a triple threat attack that can make mincemeat of any defense.

AC Beleriand wins 2-1 (no OT).