WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Checking in from phone.

Kath, don't you think it's a little odd that I'd spend all that time being suspicious of Sally, as a wolf, only to turn around and try to save her at the last second? This is one of those "if I were a wolf" moments, but I like to think I wouldn't be that obvious.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.

Yes– Sally's last post makes more sense if there was a wolf left to vote– I've said that myself. But you see: from my point of view I can easily substitute "Shasta" for "Nerwen" in the above, can't I? Only if you're the last wolf, why would you throw the lynch like that? All you'd have had to do was follow Sally's vote on Nogrod– with the tiebreaker rule, that would have been almost certain death for him. After that, he could have been saved only if he and I had voted for Sally *and* Menel had turned up at the last minute and followed suit. But then, if you don't realise that now, my dearest, I don't suppose you realised that then...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Checking in from phone.

Kath, don't you think it's a little odd that I'd spend all that time being suspicious of Sally, as a wolf, only to turn around and try to save her at the last second? This is one of those "if I were a wolf" moments, but I like to think I wouldn't be that obvious.

Thing is, my heart– it's now clear that the wolves did *something* darned odd on Day 3.

Which is actually re-stating the puzzle we've had before us ever since: theoretically, the wolves could have won on Day 3, with a co-ordinated effort– but no such effort was made. Why not? Menel's being furry would have provided a simple answer– but we now know he wasn't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes– Sally's last post makes more sense if there was a wolf left to vote– I've said that myself. But you see: from my point of view I can easily substitute "Shasta" for "Nerwen" in the above, can't I? Only if you're the last wolf, why would you throw the lynch like that? All you'd have had to do was follow Sally's vote on Nogrod– with the tiebreaker rule, that would have been almost certain death for him. After that, he could have been saved only if he and I had voted for Sally *and* Menel had turned up at the last minute and followed suit. But then, if you don't realise that now, my dearest, I don't suppose you realised that then...



Thing is, my heart– it's now clear that the wolves did *something* darned odd on Day 3.

Which is actually re-stating the puzzle we've had before us ever since: theoretically, the wolves could have won on Day 3, with a co-ordinated effort– but no such effort was made. Why not? Menel's being furry would have provided a simple answer– but we now know he wasn't.

Which is something I still disagree on with Kath -

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta says I can't be considered innocent just because I didn't follow Legate's vote. I entirely disagree here. Had I been a wolf and knew we could have won the game this Day I would have.

Much like things my pearl and I have said today, this is an 'if I were a wolf, this is how I'd act' statement. Which may be true, but isn't something provable.

I think I'm beginning to see the answer to that puzzle, though, bright shining moon. It may simply lie in the fact that the remaining wolf wasn't willing to link herself to Legate and Sally irreparably with a vote for Nogrod (obvious, I know - but no one could have foreseen the fact that Menel would forget to vote entirely.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As for this -

Originally Posted by Kath

Bad point about backing off Menel - based on assumption entirely from Shasta.

(regarding G55 backing off of Menel in her list, as far as I can tell - Kath wasn't clear)

Well, she did. The "assumption" I think you're talking about, Kath, is when I said "(because of the opposition?)" which is, rather, a possible reason for why G55, as a wolf, would have stopped going after Menel so hard. I don't see why that was a bad point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, my reason for living, it pretty well appears that anything that could be said of a Shastawolf could also be said of a Nerwolf, at least regarding the end of Day 3. Considering that Nogrod wasn't going to vote for himself, after all.

Which is, of course, what you just got finished saying. Forgive me for restating the obvious.

[Nerwen]

After re-reading: up till toDay, the person who makes the most sense as a wolf– or the least amount of nonsense, perhaps that would be better– is actually Kath, not Shasta. Once you stop seeing the placing of the Day 2 vote as a sign of innocence, and look at the vote itself, it doesn't appear so good after all:

Originally Posted by Kath

So Lommy voted for Agan and sally. I'm tempted to go the same way. I feel like she was on to something. I haven't looked at sally and she's only just around while I'm disappearing. Therefore:

++AGAN

To recap: Lommy voted Agan on Day One. She was not attacked that Night. She voted Sally on Day Two. She was killed the following Night. Which one does that point to? (Hint: not Agan.)

Now, at that point, there was no telling who'd be lynched– but the next Day, a hypothetical Kathwolf would have returned to a quite nasty situation– one comrade dead, the other heavily suspected, herself the only one to have cast a vote for someone other than the known wolf, and the person she did vote revealed as the Ranger. I'd say some damage control would have been in order– and this in turn makes her case and early Day 4 Legate-vote look quite a bit less shiny.

So far, so good. Only– again, why on Earth would a Kathwolf have eaten Nogrod last Night– the one person convinced of her innocence? It would make sense to keep me alive, since she'd already got herself into a position where she could vote me toDay without raising any eyebrows– but why make things hard for herself by not eating Shasta? Whereas killing Nog and leaving Kath and me alive would make plenty of sense for a Shastawolf.

[Nerwen]

See, I honestly find myself struggling to control my irritation at some of the things Kath has said, like her continued misrepresentation of my posts ["reluctantly says Sally might be the cobbler", "pooh-poohs Agan's sally suspicion"], or her apparent obliviousness to the idea that anything she does could be considered suspect, even when she sees it that way in others [e.g. pursuing/voting G55]. And I've seen her hide behind the whole too-rushed-to-check-anything-must-fly persona as a wolf, so it doesn't really cut that much ice with me.

–And for just that reason I find myself wary of Shasta toDay. Because I am quite certain he knows I'm feeling this way, and knew it last Night, too...

[Kath]

'Cause sally hadn't been around that Day and as I had to vote so early my aim was to get people focusing on Lommy after I had to go.

Not saying I don't appear suspicious. I have made many mistakes, fine. It's the last Day. 2/3 of us are innocents. Why are we alive unless there was a chance of making a case against us?!

Nerwen:
It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.
'Might fit'. Repeated twice. = reluctance.

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.
'Quite invalid suspicion' = pooh pooh's Agan's suspicion. Not 'points against sally', 'suspicion'.

This word misrepresentation - I do not think it means what you think it means. It may be that I term things differently, simple language use difference, but I'm not deliberately altering the meaning of your words.

I didn't want to vote last night because if I vote for the innocent the wolf is obviously going to piggyback straight on that vote. Didn't want to end up losing the game so early if that happened.

I've genuinely run out of time though. I go to work in fifteen minutes.

++NERWEN

I can't make a case for Shasta. Why would he have prevaricated around the deadline trying to save sally and then given in and voted for her? 'Cause the tactic didn't work - Nog and Nerwen held too long - and it was the less suspicious way out? It felt delaying but ...

Basically. Massive well done Shasta if it is you! You've been as slippery as a very slippery thing and if even innocent-all knowing-clean as the driven snow-Nerwen can't figure you out how is poor-stupid-thick as two short planks-Kath supposed to? If it's Nerwen. Good.

[Kitanna]

I had hoped to write longer death narrations, but the day the game started was the day my co-worker decided she needed surgery and so I got extra stress piled on. Then of course when she deems she's healthy enough to come back the game ends. Oh well, no more excuses I do hope you all enjoyed the short narrations.

I'm happy with the way this game turned out well. Congratulations to everyone for a game well played.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I had hoped to write longer death narrations, but the day the game started was the day my co-worker decided she needed surgery and so I got extra stress piled on. Then of course when she deems she's healthy enough to come back the game ends. Oh well, no more excuses I do hope you all enjoyed the short narrations.

They were wonderful! I hope you're not as stressed anymore, now that your co-worker is back...