WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nogrod]

Uh-oh. That was bad news...

Thinking positively, there should be a hint of some sort, probably clear enough in Zil's posting on D1 as otherwise the wolves are too darn lucky.

I'm going to look for something in there and suggest a few more pairs of eyes do the same so that we miss nothing.

[Nogrod]

Well, there goes the optimism...

I can't see an obvious reason for the wolves to pick Zil except that he was non-controversial and not suspected in any major way by anyone - and his early vote for G55 doesn't stand out in any way.

He did defend ("defend" may be a too strong word here though) Menel, Agan and Kath to some degree by kind of questioning the validity of some suspicions thrown at the three. He seemed to switch his mind somewhat on Pitch and me (first thinking Pitch's suspicion on Menel and Kath and his vote on me looked bad and then later saying his vote on me looked something he'd consider following - but that G55 looked worse).

The strongest there was seems to be his concern on behalf of Menel - like these (two different times):

Originally Posted by Zil

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

Originally Posted by Zil

The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon.

So he at least was concerned about the suspicions on Menel which could indicate towards Menel being dreamt of innocent (it might be a decent seer pick as he probably hasn't ever played with Menel before). It could, but does it? Dunno.

[Nogrod]

One thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of Menel: his quite strong statement "more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat" comes already at time when Pitch has suspected Menel, Nerwen has commented quite neutrally on it, and G55 has carried off with it. So there were actually only two suspicions on Menel at that time and he went that strong against them?

Another thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of G55 as a wolf: with the paranoic eyes of the wolves at Night searching for seer-hints, they might have read Zil saying "more than one person homing on it..." in the following way: "first suspector okay, the second one - aka G55 - is a salivating beast". That would be strongly said, like a seer might do it. And Zil went to vote G55.


EDIT: X'd with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

I'll post D1 voting and then I'll be off for some time. Be back later.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 2
Agan -> Pitch 2
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch 3
Nog -> Pitch 4
Legate -> G55 3

From the Pitch-lynchers Sally's and my votes stand up, clearly, whereas G55's and Agan's votes are more safe. So if someone tried to save a wolf-G55, it most probably would be Sally or me (which I am not). Also if G55 is a wolf then Legate looks quite good as that would have been extremely risky at the last minutes as he couldn't have been sure someone wouldn't come in and still vote for G55 (it was 8 minutes before the DL).

But there's one major "if" there: if G55 is a wolf. Now that we don't know, but if we'd have to vote now I'd be inclined to test that "if".

[Nerwen]

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.

[Galadriel55]

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 (2)
Agan -> Pitch (2)
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch (3)
Nog -> Pitch (xed with sally) (4)
Legate -> G55 (xed with Nog) (3)

(innocents in italics)

When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents. Instead of doing this by the tally, I'll go back and try to see when the suspicion on Pitch (possibly myself too, I'll see if there's some worthwhile suspicion) began to rise in relation to the tally. And I'll also comment on some things that were said yesterDay.

Edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer

Now, why do you say that?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, why do you say that?

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...and really only gives a solid statement on Pitch (and perhaps [b]Nogrod, but as it's based on an emoticon...) while also saying this -

- which is extremely confusing; if you don't agree with Pitch's perspective (hence being suspicious of him on your list), how can his vote be okay?

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fair enough, but then I'm a little confused by what you find suspicious. Is it just that Kath came out of the gate asking questions about the role, or what?

I think Agan was referring to herself when she said “hypocritical”; she called out Kath for bringing up the cobbler, but admitted that she does it herself when she plays in a game with a cobbler, which makes her hypocritical.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:

Now, first of all, if there are three Days we only lynch innocents - and the wolves score effectively during the Night - we have basically lost as the wolves only need to ask for the cobbler to vote with them on D4. In case we had chances on D4 (like ranger made a succesful save one Night) then I think it is essential we look at everyone as thoroughly as we can because that lynch decides whether the game continues or whether we lose. So any "let's lynch the influential people" default-setting is basically dangerous rather than helpful.

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

That's quite close. Mostly Day 2, though. Wanna continue the pattern?



PITCH SUSPICION - well, it kind of just flew up right after Pitch's vote. And then people started voting for him one after the other. What alerts me is that Nog was the second last (crossed with third last and last) person to vote, though he flew at Pitch the moment he (ie Pitch) wrote his pre-vote suspicion on him.

There's not much to be gained by analysing it this way, I see.

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.


Edit: xed with sally

[Kath]

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil
Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Now this is interesting. My reading of that quote from Inzil makes me think that it's G55 that Inzil is concentrating on here, not Menel. I would say this is more adding suspicion to G55 than trying to make Menel look innocent.

I will go do the ubiquitous Inzil analysis. The more eyes on his posts the better with all this talk of misrepresenting words going on!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

He did defend ("defend" may be a too strong word here though) Menel, Agan and Kath to some degree by kind of questioning the validity of some suspicions thrown at the three. He seemed to switch his mind somewhat on Pitch and me (first thinking Pitch's suspicion on Menel and Kath and his vote on me looked bad and then later saying his vote on me looked something he'd consider following - but that G55 looked worse).

The strongest there was seems to be his concern on behalf of Menel - like these (two different times): So he at least was concerned about the suspicions on Menel which could indicate towards Menel being dreamt of innocent (it might be a decent seer pick as he probably hasn't ever played with Menel before). It could, but does it? Dunno.

I am not really sure if this isn't a bit stretched. What Inzil said about Menel does not sound very strong to me (at least what you quote - but I have to reread it myself to see what he said otherwise). But again, for sure, a Seer should leave hints (as certainly he would know) - but possibly on Day 1 they do not need to be so strong. If he dreamed of an innocent, he could have just listed that person among the bunch of random people he trusts. If he dreamed of a Wolf, then he might have voiced a mild suspicion.

I think I'll reread his posts myself to see what I can make of it. Also, there is still the question whether it was "random", or whether it was because the WWs actually spotted some Seerishness. In any case, it is clear that the WWs do want to kill the Seer, but then again, on first Night... I mean, that would have to be really good spotting on their part.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of G55 as a wolf: with the paranoic eyes of the wolves at Night searching for seer-hints, they might have read Zil saying "more than one person homing on it..." in the following way: "first suspector okay, the second one - aka G55 - is a salivating beast". That would be strongly said, like a seer might do it. And Zil went to vote G55.

I think this, however, is certainly stretched.

Basically, from what was said this far, I am somewhat worried about toDay depending a lot on G55 being a Wolf. G55 is acting very "hedgehogishly" (defensively), and I think she could act like that if she is a Wolf under such suspicion - but there is truth to that it would be a great frame-up too, seeing she was the second runner.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.
(...)
When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents.

Okay, those are sounding more like Wolfish - especially the first one insisting, basically, that the single reason of Inzil's death was to lay a false trail. First, I doubt the WWs would have had just that as a motive; and most of all, if the reason was to just frame up G55, why Inzil, then? I mean, is there any logical connection between those? If you eliminate the Seer-reason, then why Inzil and not somebody else? You know what I mean?

However, there is some stuff G55 says which makes it sound genuine, and which also a desperate innocent could say, like this reaction to Shasta:

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

or even this about Nog:

Originally Posted by G55

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

And I don't think the "savage" quote has much of a merit either. After all, people usually *do* say something when a Seer dies. Of course it can be faked, but I certainly don't think a Wolf would intentionally say such a thing in the sense of "mwahaha, that was soo savage! Did you see? I love blood!" - or whichever way it was that sally meant it.

Originally Posted by G55

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.

This however again does ring my bells - because it looks a bit like turning suspicion to somebody else in the village.

Originally Posted by Kath

This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

(...)

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

Wait, I don't get it... isn't Pitch dead and innocent???

Altogether, major observations: I am not sure what to make of Nog today, his activity in looking for clues about Inzil's death is sort of mingled with some rather confusing conclusions and most of all, certain "suggestive behavior", it seems to me. Nerwen comes and has some sharp points which look genuine. I am not sure about G55. Of course, if Nog is a Wolf, then yesterDay might have been a really tight escepe from the noose based on a fellow-save (and the same goes if Sally was the Wolf, or even if both of them were, since they crossposted), but then again, one could ask, if G55 is under suspicion (but then again, Day 1 suspicions might not mean much), would it be worth it for the WWs to save her one Night and still having her threatened (possibly even more) the next Day?

I will check on Zil's posts and be around...

EDIT: x-ed with G55.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

And that's an interesting choice of words....

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And that's an interesting choice of words....

What do you find interesting in it?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

G55, short of a Day One reveal, I don't think *anyone* has *ever* been killed on Night Two "solely because he was the Seer". Sorry, but this is just confusing the issue.

Now, in your previous post, you said this:

Originally Posted by G55

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer

*Here* you are pretty clear that you don't believe Seerish-ness was a significant factor at all, and *that's* what I was asking about.

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by G55

What do you find interesting in it?

Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either.

And yet, as much as it stood out, the comment itself strikes me as a very common G55 thing to say, having seen her and many other innocents (myself included) lynched early in the game due to the same problem: wording. And yet, in such a game, where we cannot read each others emotions, faces and body language, it is the only the factual thing we have to go on. But it still stands out to me as a very innocent G55 thing to do.

Her voting placement (which I apologize for my lack of yesterDay) along with that of Noggins looks rather bad on both of them. Perhaps taking a closer look at the voting and timing would be beneficial to us, as I seem to recall a slew of votes all roughly at the same time. Or maybe that's just my time meld acting up again......

Anyways, I must be off. I will be on periodically to comment as I can, but today(RL) commences my five days without rest period of the show.....again.....