WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Thinlómien]

Okay, going to bed now since my head doesn't work much, I'll be around tomorrow before the DL. Just as the last comment I would like to do a bit of Captain Obviousing and say that since I've just checked the rules and roles and done some maths, we need to be sharp in this game. It is three wolves and a powerful cobbler against nine innocents. The odds could be much better.

Good night and see you around!


edit: xed with poor Sally. Get better!
edit2: am I the only who keeps switching the words in the thread title the other way around? I know, I'm corrupted and should go to bed...

[Meneltarmacil]

I suppose what I meant was:

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I hope I'm not putting my job on the line when I suggest that my honoured employer check for x-posting next time.

Ah. Noted.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I suppose what I meant was:

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

Well certainly, if we can spot a pattern of a particular person pushing innocent lynches, that would be something to zero in on.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Typical, I am about to leave and there is a host.

A couple of remarks, really briefly. (alas...)

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows. But as for G55's vehement case, I can see her becoming intent on exploring some issue like that, so I am not intent to putting much behind either issue. Of course, that said, whoever thinks Agan is not fooling anybody is probably always wrong, but...

More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.

As for Lommy's part at least, she sounds a bit more, hmm, accusatory than usual, but also a bit more confused, so perhaps she just needs to rest and recover (from both the body sickness and the apparent case of Iceandfirobsessionia ). I may just as well follow her example. I'll be back before DL, I hope.

EDIT: x-ed with Menel (what I said) and Zil.

[Galadriel55]

Back and reading...

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Not that I'd think our seer is dumb or anything, but she shouldn't forget about the cobbler before revealing if she hasn't targeted her before.

Oh, you're doing it again, this time for the Seer AND the cobbler. What's up with you?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Look at my last post and you'll see I'm also the seer.

Yeah. Which one are you?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I seem to recall Agan having a habit of calling the Cobbler "she". Why? Ask the wind why it blows.

The Seer too, eh?

I don't remember Agan refering to an unknown role as a "she" before. Well, I would have had to learn that sooner or later. I apologize to the village for messing things, and - of course - I clear that point on Agan.

But I was so excited when I saw it!...

I hope you're better soon, sally! And Lommy!

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

edit2: am I the only who keeps switching the words in the thread title the other way around? I know, I'm corrupted and should go to bed...

<3 lol! ^^

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows.

Maybe I forgot, or I just haven't played enough games with Agan, but this is the first time I see this habbit.

Originally Posted by Legate

I think [Menel] said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance.

There's a difference between being sensible and being sensible and obvious. Saying "wolves are bad" is also a pretty logical and sensible thing. Where I'm getting at, is that I get what you're saying about Menel's posts being true and substancial, but I also get the other side of it, that they are what is to be understood without having to say it.

I find Menel's posts kinda awkward; not because he's saying the obvious truth, but because of how hard he defends it. When people commented on how he posts (ie being obvious), he repeated his point again with elaboration and etc., but was no less obvious. It's not like anyone disagrees with what he says, it's how he says it, and this does not change from post to post. I'll keep in mind that he is back from a very big break, and unless there's some more substancial point against him I wouldn't consider him more suspicious than most.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance.

Menel, please understand this - no one's questioning what you say. We know this, and we agree. People are questioning why you are saying it, since it's not something one can't figure out from reading the general guidelines to WW.


I'll put up a list of some sort a bit later.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

This is kind of obvious - actually, a little too obvious for my taste. Or should it be read as "Hear me, packmates, and keep a low profile while we help the loudmouths lynch each other"?

Perhaps, but doesn't it make more sense that a Wolftarmacil would have just said that to his packmates during the night, instead of attempting to hint to his fellows on-thread when we're all watching?

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually, what it does scream is "gratuitous Skyrim reference";

I got it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Rather, it would be in the wolves' interest to bring attention to the cobbler.

Normally, I can see that. Given how useful the cobbler is to the wolves this game, though (rather more than your run-of-the-mill cobbler), I don't know that I agree with this statement. I would think it would benefit the wolves more to keep attention off their Gifted-blocker.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I'd also like to add that with the Cobbler's extra abilities this go around, there ought not to be anyone saying something "Leave X be; just a Cobbler".

Shasta agreeing with Inzil? On anything? What is the world coming to? I do agree with this, though (of course, I've been saying not to ignore the Cobbler for a long time, too.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Never mind what I said above about cobbler discussion in general, who but the wolves would need to worry about that?

Translation - "I've hit on a perfect way to be able to suspect anyone; all they have to do is ask a question about a role we've never seen before!"

Pitch is pinging my radar.

Originally Posted by G55

This looks a bit overly defensive/dramatic for my taste. And this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
However, even if innocents are lynching innocents, you can bet that there will be at least one wolf making sure his fellows aren't going to the noose. Whether he is making the major arguments himself or merely reinforcing those made by the gullible, I still expect a wolf or two to be involved when multiple innocents are lynched in a row.
...is the second time you're stating the obvious.

I don't know your playing style, and it might have changed anyways over your absence, and playing for the first time after a big break can be nervewracking, I guess, but you do sound a bit too concerned.

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

Originally Posted by Agan

Which means that the way Kath initiated the cobbler talk raised my hackles a tiny bit

You're right, this is a bit hypocritical. What I don't really care for, though, is the way you yourself mentioned it and then laughed it off as though it doesn't really matter. Why is it that Kath seems suspicious for talking about the cobbler, yet you don't?

Originally Posted by Inzil

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

I'm agreeing with Inzil again. Inzil, what exactly did you put in this brew of yours...?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now it may be I'm also in a bit of rust, but to me Zil's point about the cobbler needing to avoid Night-kills kind of raised some alarms.

I didn't really think about it until Nog's post, but that seems to me just as much "stating the obvious" as Menel was doing earlier... which also makes me wonder why those who pounced on Menel for it (Pitch, my shining star, G55) didn't also pounce on Inzil.

Originally Posted by Menel

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

Also, if there's a period of three or more Days in which only innocents have been lynched, we've already lost (unless the Ranger is awesome, and even then, the odds suck.)

Whew, I think that's pretty much everything thus far. Dear light, might I trouble you for another drink? Thirsty work, and all that.

[Meneltarmacil]

Inzil's post does seem a bit suspicious to me, despite my disagreement with Nogrod thus far, in a "psst, cobbler, give us some hints so we don't eat you" way.

What is stranger still, as Shasta pointed out, was the lack of reaction to this statement of Inzil's and so far only Nogrod seems to regard it as "off."

[Inziladun]

Whew. Dealing with rough weather here tonight! I think I'm one of the few around here who has electricity.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows. But as for G55's vehement case, I can see her becoming intent on exploring some issue like that, so I am not intent to putting much behind either issue.

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.

Agreed. The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Thoughts on those who have posted so far:

Gal55 - content-free first post, can be anything.

Zil - mostly commenting, reasonable points, basically his standard inscrutable self; defends Menel against me (which I actually like).

Lommy - sick, therefore excused.

Menel - has been a bit Captain Obvious and theoretical up to now, but his elaboration on his first post is sound enough, and his reaction to me doesn't strike me as particularly wolvish. Anyway, like Legate said, I'd need a good reason to vote him D1 in his first game in ages.

Legate - posting behaviour similar to Zil, reasonable stuff, wishy-washy as far as suspicions go (which is nothing new), except he seems to feel good about Kath.

Kath - "interested and active", yes, and I find no fault in wanting to discuss the new and improved(TM) cobbler, but the piece from her last post I paraphrased seems to me to be thinking too much from the perspective of the wolves.

Agan - don't trust her farther than I can throw her on general principle, but there's nothing especially alerting yet, except maybe the bit about me being the cobbler, where I'm not sure whether she was teasing me, suspecting me or hinting at me (probably not the latter, too obvious).

- The above was written before everybody started talking, especially before Gal accused Menel, which is exactly the sort of latching-on I hoped to provoke by poking at him (and yes, Menel, I think we've all got what your point was by now). And look, Nog is doing it too, casting some doubt but not actually committing to anything. I don't approve. As for his point about Zil, I'll need that explained to me, because I don't really get what he's trying to say.

Btw, I have to vote within the next half hour or so, DL being in the middle of my workday. I could imagine voting Kath for that wolf-think quote, but we'll see.

I don't know if I really think Kath is all that suspicious just based on that quote. As someone pointed out, couldn't the wolves PM the moddess instead of risking saying that here? Could be she just wasn't thinking, but still....

Pitch mostly makes sense, but every so often something, like the Kath suspicion, makes me wonder. And the vote for Nog sure was sudden.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Perhaps, but doesn't it make more sense that a Wolftarmacil would have just said that to his packmates during the night, instead of attempting to hint to his fellows on-thread when we're all watching?

Agreed! Have we stumbled into a parallel universe?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

Yeah, like I said , I'm rather bothered by G55. I'll probably have to vote soon, and she may be my pick.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm agreeing with Inzil again. Inzil, what exactly did you put in this brew of yours...?

Sorry, but it's a house secret. And bark from trees in the Old Forest is definitely not an ingredient.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I didn't really think about it until Nog's post, but that seems to me just as much "stating the obvious" as Menel was doing earlier... which also makes me wonder why those who pounced on Menel for it (Pitch, my shining star, G55) didn't also pounce on Inzil.

I don't know either. Are you trying to incite them to do so?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

I'm not. Influential people are not the problem.

Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them. I just don't want it to happen here.

[Meneltarmacil]

Sorry, did not have much time to finish the last post.

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them.

I have seen that happen a time or two. Sure. From the 50+ games I've played I've seen one or two. Maybe five years ago. Or something.

So my problem with your "crusade" (sorry about that word) is that it is totally overdone and a bit misguided. There have been loud wolves trying to do that but they have been lynched soon enough basically every time. I mean anytime someone manages to convince others to lynch A or B and they turn out innocents that person gets lynched even if he is innocent (I should know that)... and actually that's the reason why the wolves love loudmouths who are wrong.

So it's been a long time I have seen any wolf trying to openly lead the village as they know it's their downfall as sooner rather than later they will be lynched.

But yeah, it's been a long time since you last played and the dynamics have somewhat changed while you have been away. You'll see...

It is still fun, though.

[satansaloser2005]

Ugh. All right, all right, I'm awake, and off to make some early morning deliveries. I'll have a quick chat with everyone as I go and see who I think is responsible for this insanity.