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Old 02-27-2012, 01:51 PM   #1
Pitchwife
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
I once made some points in my head and wrote them down so I could post them the next Day, and got killed of course. After that, no. It's not necessarily just that I don't want to gamble on being alive, it might also be laziness: when I'm an ordo, I gladly take the Nights as my days off from the game and continue thinking in the next Day phase. Anyway, my suspicion of people who write analyses overNight is not just because I don't do it myself, but also because in one early game I played, a wolf was caught precisely because of her (I think it was Brinniel) certainity of being alive the next Day.
I usually don't do much at Nights myself as an ordo, but last game I wrote a lengthy analysis of Shasta the very Night I was killed; so from my perspective, G55 didn't even have to be sure she'd be alive, she just had not to have a reason to expect that she specifically would die that Night. Apparently your mileage varies.
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:13 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
I usually don't do much at Nights myself as an ordo, but last game I wrote a lengthy analysis of Shasta the very Night I was killed; so from my perspective, G55 didn't even have to be sure she'd be alive, she just had not to have a reason to expect that she specifically would die that Night. Apparently your mileage varies.
I never do, not because I'm particulary worried about being axed at night, but because I don't know how the night death will effect my opinions going into the next day. Also, I like seeing/weighing reactions to the night death from people before doing anything else.

My guess though is this is something that varies from person to person, whether someone does or doesn't isn't in anyway a solid reason for suspicion. It may raise some red flags on someone as in..."Wait if you were so sure you were going to be alive...? = wolfy." But it's still a personal judgement call and I would prefer not to get into "What is this person thinking when they assume to be alive next day and write a post during a night?" That's making things way too complicated for yourself.
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:30 PM   #3
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Last post crossed with Greenie, one thing you mis-interpretted:

Quote:
- clarifies that the double-lynch idea wasn't serious; mentions possible trios of Legate-Lottie-Shasta and Lommy-Sally-Shasta

Actually, Boro, the names of Lommy and Lottie keep coming up, first on Day 2, then yesterDay; care to share why the two of them? And why Sally? Why those trios?
My talk of "this trio" or "that trio" I was using as sarcastic examples and expressing why I was annoyed yesterday. I mean that originated as Nog's argument to try to defend himself "Eonwe-G55-Boro, wolf-conspiracy to attack me!"

And yesterday there was a lot of continued "well these people are together, and there's this trio"...which flat out annoys me. Not that it's not good to point these out for a future reference but like I said yesterday, I suck at multi-tasking. Let me finish/complete one thing at a time and all this chatter of wolf-trio here and wolf-trio there was system overload/distracting from current task of Legate and/or Shasta = Boro brain combustion:

Quote:
Originally Posted by 372
I'm well aware there are more spies than just Legate a/o Shasta, but I am perhaps the worst multi-tasker you'll ever know. Give me one thing to do. I'll execute it and then move on to the next thing. Asking me to jumble all these ideas of a Legate-Shasta-Pitch, Shasta-Lommy-Greenie, Legate-sally-Lommy spy combinations is a processing overload for me. So unless you want my brain to explode, let me go about my business one step at a time. Starting with either Legate or Shasta today. Comprende?
Post 378, responding to Legate (bolding mine)
Quote:
And relax. I wasn't being serious with that double lynch, but expressing my annoyance at both of you, and overall annoyance at this "Legate-Lottie-Shasta" "Lommy-sally-Shasta" spy-trifecta chatter today. Annoyed to the point where, at this time I couldn't care less if either you or Shasta were lynched, therefor you could both go. Give a few hours to have some hot chocolate, watch some guilty pleasure/trash and I'll be significantly less annoyed.
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:38 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
My talk of "this trio" or "that trio" I was using as sarcastic examples and expressing why I was annoyed yesterday. I mean that originated as Nog's argument to try to defend himself "Eonwe-G55-Boro, wolf-conspiracy to attack me!"

And yesterday there was a lot of continued "well these people are together, and there's this trio"...which flat out annoys me. Not that it's not good to point these out for a future reference but like I said yesterday, I suck at multi-tasking. Let me finish/complete one thing at a time and all this chatter of wolf-trio here and wolf-trio there was system overload/distracting from current task of Legate and/or Shasta = Boro brain combustion
Ah, I see. Fair enough. Nevertheless, you did say you were wary of Lommy and Lottie and would explain later. I know it might be old already, but just for the record, what was it about?
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:58 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Ah, I see. Fair enough. Nevertheless, you did say you were wary of Lommy and Lottie and would explain later. I know it might be old already, but just for the record, what was it about?
Oi, that's going back a ways. I can't remember Lottie off the top of my head, other than been too focused on others to pay close attention to her. But yesterday her posts about the acolyte struck me as good, and thus, just forgetting about her existance.

Lommy, I do, because I'm rather terrible in how I sort of give preferential treatment to people. I noticed Lommy immediately and her early day 1 posts were more frantic and ranty than usual. I mean I know they can look like she's constantly in argument with herself, but to start off frantic and ranting about random votes...if you were with me you could have seen the "?" above my head. I didn't say anything immediately, for the simple fact that I hadn't played with Lommy in so long, I didn't want to immediately start after her. So I went with "I notice her. Watch."

With everything yesterday I forgot about a lot of people, but

...Well, glad I refreshed the page before I continued on with this ramble post of made up garbage...

Touche Lommy. Touche.
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:46 PM   #6
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I guess now is the time to do this, before people start voting:

I'm the acolyte.

I only learnt this last Night (and I have to say it has quite nicely ruined my day of supposed essay-writing.) I got to pick my side, and it wasn't really a choice. I picked the village - some people may know I always side with the goodies, but also I would have felt very unfair changing sides when the wolves already have an upper hand and I myself have played lousily as an ordo.

I'm basically like a weaker seer. I get to dream every Night, but there's 50% chance I dream of someone else than I wanted to.

Last Night I chose and succeeded to dream of Boro, who is a wolf.

Based on his going after Shasta so strongly toDay, I think he's 90% likely to be innocent.

(Also, just to venture a bit further, I wouldn't be surprised if Boro and Pom were packmates. If Pom is a wolf, then I doubt Lottie is one, since she just suggested Boro and Pom are wolves together. Greenie drawing so much attention to him would also be a little risky at this point, so my best guess is Boro-Pom-Sally or if not, then Boro-Pom-Pitch.)
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:51 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Last Night I chose and succeeded to dream of Boro, who is a wolf.
HA! I knew it was worth it not to go to bed just yet. I'm inclined to believe Lommy, partly because I find Boro a much likelier wolf than Lommy, partly because I can't see why a Lommywolf would try something like that (unless it's purely for sport, but I doubt she'd do that).
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:56 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
HA! I knew it was worth it not to go to bed just yet. I'm inclined to believe Lommy, partly because I find Boro a much likelier wolf than Lommy, partly because I can't see why a Lommywolf would try something like that (unless it's purely for sport, but I doubt she'd do that).
It also fits with her wanting to discuss the Acolyte right out of the gate Day 1.

I'm also inclined to believe her, partly because I already was wondering about Boro, but also because I agree there's no reason for a Lommywolf to have taken such a risk.
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Old 02-27-2012, 03:08 PM   #9
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Okay. I'm somewhere between jumping for joy and swearing right now. Jumping for joy, because, if true, Lommy has just made the day of the village. I'm pretty sure she's telling the truth here because I can't see her motivation of being otherwise - as Shasta said earlier today, if the acolyte, as it seems, took the side of the village tonight, we can technically afford to lose one innocent, so if Boro would be found out as such, it would be a suicide for her tomorrow. This also can't be a wolf plan decided during the night, because obviously the narration was up just today.

...and swearing, because a) I trusted Boro somewhat, so I can't even use anything I have said so far to defend myself and b) he has definitely managed to paint me as black as possible. Agh! If (as seems probable) you are a wolf, Boro, I hate you. Just to let you know.

x/ed with everyone after Greenie
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Old 02-27-2012, 03:13 PM   #10
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...And after Boro's confession. Yes, I hate you. But I guess this counts - even if I didn't have a full fight with you, I got to be special. Is this how you show me that I'm not counted as a first-timer anymore?
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Old 02-27-2012, 03:15 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Silly Lommy, should have let me keep yapping away, I probably could have handed to you my spy-mates. But now. I'm staying zip.
I was aware I could have waited longer to see more of you*, but I wanted to reveal before the voting starts. Of course, you are right that I should have waited if you mean that the potential early voters (Greenie, Pom and/or Pitch) are your fellow wolves.


* anyway there's three Days' worth of your posts to analyse so it shouldn't be a problem.
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:27 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pomegranate View Post
Okay. I'm somewhere between jumping for joy and swearing right now. Jumping for joy, because, if true, Lommy has just made the day of the village. I'm pretty sure she's telling the truth here because I can't see her motivation of being otherwise - as Shasta said earlier today, if the acolyte, as it seems, took the side of the village tonight, we can technically afford to lose one innocent, so if Boro would be found out as such, it would be a suicide for her tomorrow. This also can't be a wolf plan decided during the night, because obviously the narration was up just today.
Just a note: the narration is not meant to indicate the Acolyte's choice in either direction.

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Old 02-27-2012, 02:58 PM   #13
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What?

If that is true, what the heck was Sally's #446 about?
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Old 02-27-2012, 03:00 PM   #14
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Also:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Last Night I chose and succeeded to dream of Boro, who is a wolf.

Based on his going after Shasta so strongly toDay, I think he's 90% likely to be innocent.
You dreamed he's a wolf and you think he's innocent? What the - ?

(EDIT: x-ed with Boro)
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Old 02-27-2012, 03:04 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Also:

You dreamed he's a wolf and you think he's innocent? What the - ?

(EDIT: x-ed with Boro)
I would guess she meant Shasta was likely to be innocent, but I wouldn't go that far personally.
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Old 02-27-2012, 03:07 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Also:

You dreamed he's a wolf and you think he's innocent? What the - ?

(EDIT: x-ed with Boro)
She means Shasta looks innocent, not me.

Silly Lommy, should have let me keep yapping away, I probably could have handed to you my spy-mates. But now. I'm staying zip.
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Old 02-27-2012, 03:08 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Also:

Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Last Night I chose and succeeded to dream of Boro, who is a wolf.

Based on his going after Shasta so strongly toDay, I think he's 90% likely to be innocent.
You dreamed he's a wolf and you think he's innocent? What the - ?

(EDIT: x-ed with Boro)
I meant Shasta is innocent, obviously.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil
It also fits with her wanting to discuss the Acolyte right out of the gate Day 1.
Actually, no - like I said, I only learnt I was the acolyte last Night.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Touche Lommy. Touche.
Well hats off to you for convincing me of your innocence for some time.


edit: xed with all the three after Pitch whom I quoted
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:30 PM   #18
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On Boro being nice to me - until today (as I mentioned before) everyone has been nice to me. I can't answer to that. And me playing cautiously, Lottie: Look at yourself. I have at least thrown some suspicions (Legate, Nog, I guestioned Shasta, just now I'm having problems with Lommy and - let's face it, yourself (though I hate suspecting people right after they have suspected me, I agree with Pitch - I had forgotten Lottie's existence, and looked through her).

So, Lottie's posts from yesterday.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
I actually thought this was a good point. The way I see it, there are only four reasons why the Acolyte killed Eruhen.

Option A: The Acolyte is a were-bear and kills every Night. This was proved false by the lack of a kill last Night.

Option B1: The Acolyte is a type of were-bear that kills every so often and wants the village (and spies) to all die. This is possible, and the only possible option where the Acolyte is definitively evil.

Option B2: The Acolyte still kills every so often, but xe doesn't necessarily want the village to all die. Xe killed Eruhen because xe thought Eruhen was a spy, and used his "every so often" kill to take out a potential spy, but was mistaken.

Option C: The Acolyte took the role of the person xe killed, and is now an ordo.

I won't go so far as to say it's more likely that the Acolyte isn't necessarily on our side, but it's not impossible, so I'm definitely not comfortable with writing the Acolyte off as evil as a matter of course.
(On acolyte killing Eru - no opinions on who's suspicious etc.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
After Legate's weird flip-out over Steve not revealing the Ordo yesterDay, and his dogged (and, as it seems to me at least, flimsy and grasping-at-strawsy) pursuit of Shasta (who's seemed logical and genuine, if not always right, to me this whole game), I'm very much inclined to vote him toDay. Pitchie also seems off to me, but I'm less convinced of his guilt than of Legate's.

Obviously Steve is innocent, but Lommy, Sally, and Nate also seem pretty good to me, and I'm leaning innocent on Boro, Shasta, and Zil (though hardly definitively yet!). I have no read whatsoever on Greenie, and if there's anyone else playing, I've gotten so little a read on them that I've forgotten them entirely.

Obviously, this means that one of the people in my second category are evil. For now I'm thinking it'd be more likely to be Boro and Shasta - I'm more confident about the first three I mentioned, and Zil and Greenie, for some reason, don't strike me as all that evil this game (of course, they also don't strike me as all that innocent, but that's why they're in the categories they're in).
Following with everyone else suspecting Legate, and giving vague hints about Pitch. Everyone else seems more or less innocent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
I'd be willing to consider the option of a Legate-Shasta-?Pitch? pack, at any rate.

EDIT: xed with a bunch
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
It would be insanely bold, but whoever survived would look very good. How much did Shasta suspect Legate before toDay? It could be the wolves decided that, since Legate was likely to be lynched for his suspicious reaction to Steve's dream, Shasta might as well come out of it looking very good.

Now, I'm not saying that this is necessarily what I think, but it is a possiblity I'm considering.

EDIT: xed with Legate
I'm sorry, who's careful? "I'm not saying that this is necessarily what I think"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
I've got to vote early, so I'll go ahead and

++Legate

For the reasons stated in my earlier post, especially his reaction to Steve's reveal. Good lynching, everyone!
I'm not comfortable, not at all. This to me seems like "I'm here, I'm saying something, but I'm not actually saying anything too much. Nothing that would in any case link me to anyone, anywhere."

Also, what was that change of opinion of Shasta mid-post? You started with "(who's seemed logical and genuine, if not always right, to me this whole game)" and ended up with putting him as the most probable of the innocent-group of yours to be a wolf. I'd say most probably you just had to figure out a reason to suspect Legate, so that you wouldn't seem you're just following others. But tell us, what were you thinking?

x/ed with Greenie and Boro
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