TIG XCIV– WHere the Stars Are Strange (Game thread)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, just (if you don't have anything better to do, it's not necessary, I might try to cope on my own): could you please somehow rephrase, say it again or explain it a bit more? I didn't quite get the meaning of this paraghraph. What do you mean: who would set up whom and how, most importantly?

I meant if Lommy (or Eonwe, and/or someone else acquiring significant suspicion yesterday) is a wolf, then the pack could use their night kills to divert suspicion away from one of them.

For first kills, the "little to no trail kill" seems to be more popular these days. However, Rikae isn't one. She was involved in majority of the days action, and had some fairly strongly stated opinions. So, as Pom correctly rephrased it could have been a "Hey look, this person would have a reason to kill Rikae!" and thus get suspicion dropped on a wolf who was getting votes/suspicions on Day 1.

I may have gotten too wordy and confusing, but essentially I wanted to say that it doesn't have to be an either/or..."They killed her because they thought she was seer/gifted/a threat" OR "They killed her to divert suspicions away from one of their own"...it could very well be both.

I think in combination with the Bom-voting yesterday, and with the Rikae-kill, there was at least one wolf under lynch threat yesterday. It's like a 2-step plan.

1) The immediate fix to save a packmate from being lynched Day 1, by opportunistically capitilizing on Bom's self-vote.

2) The long-term solution, kill Rikae, a person who left some strong suspicions to follow and make it look like someone else had a reason to kill her. And thus what I meant by using the night-kill to "redirect focus" today. With how slight/unsure we are about Day 1 suspicions, it's rather easy to get us to drop them when getting other evidence, such as who the wolves killed.

Ok, the basics of my Pitch-uneasiness is how he came out today to scold people about the Bom-voting. There's more which I'm going to explain but this:

I'll be getting to Rikae in a moment, but first things first: that was one of the most useless D1 lynches ever.

It's not like I can't empathize to some degree with being annoyed by Bom and wanting to set an example, but what exactly was that supposed to accomplish? I mean, you said it yourselves:

It's not that what he says is wrong/inaccurate. Afterall, what would Bom's lynch accomplish? But it comes off as trying to shame us...like "How could you do this" or "How dare you."

Not sure how to describe it other than Pitch is sounding over-the-top, trying to show disgust towards a meaningless lynch. It certainly was a strangely agreed upon to vote Bom, but the shaming outrage "how could you people do this!" is out of place, and rather uncalled for. I mean nothing against Bom, but it's not like we lynched the seer.

Ok, now I didn't vote, and for whatever it's worth I would have likely voted for G55 yesterday, but I would not at all stood opposed to the Bom-lynch. And that's where I'm scratching my head about Pitch's scolding about the lynch.

What did it accomplish? Well, maybe nothing on the surface, because Bom didn't really say anything. But what did it accomplish for the wolves? Not much other than insure one of their own wasn't lynched. I mean it sucks for Bom, and eventually we have to put real spies in the real noose. Maybe I'm strange, but I happen to think, if not a wolf, than any Day 1 that doesn't lynch a gifted to help us more than the wolves. The longer gifteds stay around, use their gifts, and gather info, the more of a chance they can flip the tide against the wolves.

And besides it may be useless to glean any substance from Bom's posts, but that doesn't make the lynch, itself useless. I mean if one of the wolves was under threat of lynching yesterday, than Bom made an easy alternative target, and that's certainly not useless. And excluding Bom's vote, there were 5 who voted Bom. It's certainly plausible at least one spy is in there...so again what did the lynch accomplish for the wolves other than getting a step closer to victory?

So, yeah that first post from Pitch today...it's not sitting well with me. It looks like he's trying to shame people for how they voted, by framing the lynch as the "most useless Day 1 lynch ever." Maybe not the most meaningful, but real scolding language, especially when I'd hardly call it a horrible/crippling lynch (like lynching the seer D1)

Edit: crossed with Legate, Greenie and Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Greenie

A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?

One of the basic hunter-strategies I would think, two versions of it would be applicable here.

a) You think you know Rupert Murdoch is a wolf but you stay quiet about him. Instead you give hints you are a hunter and suspect Bill Gates a lot in the open. Now if Rupert is a wolf, he might think that is his chance to get rid of the hunter and *pow* he dies trying it in the Night.

b) You think you know Rupert Murdoch is a wolf and you want to keep him at bay during the Nights to be able to play more - so you make an open threat to him by hinting you're a hunter and suspecting him a lot. (The second one isn't probably the best tactics as it dangers the use of your gift, but people have used it as well)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

One of the basic hunter-strategies I would think, two versions of it would be applicable here.

a) You think you know Rupert Murdoch is a wolf but you stay quiet about him. Instead you give hints you are a hunter and suspect Bill Gates a lot in the open. Now if Rupert is a wolf, he might think that is his chance to get rid of the hunter and *pow* he dies trying it in the Night.

b) You think you know Rupert Murdoch is a wolf and you want to keep him at bay during the Nights to be able to play more - so you make an open threat to him by hinting you're a hunter and suspecting him a lot. (The second one isn't probably the best tactics as it dangers the use of your gift, but people have used it as well)

Okay, Nogrod, all very nice thoughts, but I make it obligatory for *you* to read my unfruitful brain exercise (post above this one) in its fullest and then you can tell me what you think about it... (Well, what. You often write long posts yourself. We can drink the bitter cup of reading confusing long stuff both )

[Eönwë]

Ok, finally caught up on toDay as well as the end of yesterDay, since I was very time-limited then. And now, looking back, I may have been more reluctant to vote Bom, but I'll get to that in a bit.

Firstly, Pom, your voting list has a few errors. I've fixed them here, and added in the roles of the dead:

Greenie -> Boro
Lottie -> Lommy
Bom -> Bom {ordo}
G55 -> Lommy (2)
Inzil -> Eonwe
Rikae {hunter} ->Inzil
Sally -> Eonwe (2)
Eru {ordo} -> Lommy (3)
Shasta -> Bom {ordo} (2)
Legate-> Bom {ordo} (3)
Nogrod-> Bom {ordo} (4)
Eonwe-> Bom {ordo} (5)
Lommy-> Bom {ordo} (6)
Pitch->Eonwe (3)
Pom->Legate


And I'm glad you also spotted Nog's sneaky post as the origin of the Bom bandwaggon, which is what I'm going to focus on now.

Here, we have two main parts to his 'half-serious' attack:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If anyone is willing to help Bom with his suicide I'd be happy to lend a hand there.

So, we ranted too little about these no-trace votes (or we should have made the rant wider). I mean a self vote is as bad as a declared random vote in that they result in the same: there's no way of saying whom the person really wished to vote for (or whom he didn't want to vote) - or whom he faked wishing to vote for or not to vote for. Declared intentions concerning one's votes + the votes themselves are the bread and butter of this game, voting randomly or self-voting is effectively denying others the info. And thus something the wolves would love to hide in if it was looked on as having no consequences. Therefore I'm actually half-serious in proposing we lynch Bom toDay.

Firstly, here he claims that there is merit in voting Bom because of his self-vote.


Then, not content with this, he adds this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The other thing that makes me half-serious with it, is what Bom has actually posted.

There are four posts by him.

In first (#22) he agrees with G55 (and all others) about the Acolyte discussion.

In the second one (#56) he says Rikae and G55 look innocentish, with no explanation whatsoever (well, he adds as a kind of softening that he finds G55 always innocent and wonders why is that). Then he does what I'd describe as piling onto the Leg/Zil -controversy saying that's the thing he finds interesting, though he will not himself have time to look at it.

In his third post (#64) he dislikes Greenie's vote but backtracks immediately saying he will not vote for Greenie as she will not be around to explain anymore.

Then he votes himself (#94) because "I don't seem to be in danger of being lynched".

It's as if he decided that the first reason wasn't enough, and instead of taking the angered route of lynching the self-voters, he also feels compelled to find reasons for him being suspicious. Of course, either of these two parts would be fine separately, but what is the point in bringing them together? There is no connecting theme except for "Reasons to lynch Bom", which does not seem like the sort of thing an innocent would do at all.


There's also his ending part:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The only problem I have with all this (and why I'm only half-serious) is that I'm afraid an innocent Bom could play just like this as well. And there are some I think we have some reasons to believe are not having our best in mind anyway. Heh, and I'm not so sure anymorfe why I used such a long time into this rant which begins with let's lynch Bom and then ends up with, well, maybe let's not...

Here he tried to stick it all together, and fails miserably. The two points are not the same at all. In addition, it's only here that he goes for the "but maybe an innocent Bom could do this too" angle. Throughout the rest of the post, there's no indication of anything else, no doubt or deviation from his topic- it's just a list of reasons to kill Bom.

Not only this, but he tries to soften the attack by using the words "half-serious" three times in his post. Three times. Because he knows that it is just a relentless "lynch Bom" campaign. And he doesn't want to seem like he's just coming up with this out of nowhere. He's waiting for others to pick up on his campaign and vote Bom for him, so he can just turn up later looking blameless.


The more important question is why he would do it. And what seems most likely to me is that either one of his fellows was getting attacked, or those being suspected were playing suspiciously enough for him to want to 'save them for later' when it would be harder to get an easy lynch. So I'm not sure how suspicious this makes Lommy. Yesterday, I started off thinking her suspicious, then innocent, but now, with this, I'm leaning suspicious again.

edit: x-ed with the 'Helsinki update'. Going to eat, but I will be back soon.

[Galadriel55]

More thoughts about Rikae: although she might have given hints and hunted someone she suspected, it is also possible that she did not want anyone to know her true intentions. If the wolves killed her thinking more about the way discussion would be steered after her death than possible giftedness, this is a possibility. While a Hunter can pose as a Seer, s/he can also hide xyr true thoughts and make the hunt more of a surprise, which would baffle the wolves.


And now I've made it through 10 more posts... yes, my reading will be that broken... only snatches... (and if anyone replied to my previous post I have no idea, since I'm reading in order, so please be patient with me. I'll get to this before I go to bed.)

Pom at #180 - I like your line of reasoning. Solid. Backable.

[QUOTE=A Little Green;667570]A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?[QUOTE]

A logical Hunter could. That way, if no one is killed with them, we know an innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now it is also quite possible - and maybe even probable - that being the crafty player she was, she was not hunting any of those she suspected aloud.

I think it's quite possible - see above (and I wrote that before I read your post).

Originally Posted by Nog

And we'll probably never know whom she picked.

*AArrggh*

Sadly, yes. There's too many possibilities.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For first kills, the "little to no trail kill" seems to be more popular these days. However, Rikae isn't one. She was involved in majority of the days action, and had some fairly strongly stated opinions.

She's not a no-trail kill, she's a too-many-to-follow-trail kill, in my opinion. It works just as well as the no-trace, maybe even better for the wolves because people argue about which trail should be followed.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

First off - Lommy confuses me a lot at the moment.
This looked fishy to me, the need to emphasize her own innocence in a context where it wasn't called for. Some players do that all the time, but I don't think Lommy is one of those so it struck me as odd.

Didn't that mean the interpretation was wrongful? But I'd like to hear about that from Lommy too...

Originally Posted by LG

Err- what? Not entirely sure I get this point, or rather, I get the point all right but didn't get the framework. Anyhow, yes, if someone started it, I'd say it was Shasta, regardless of that Nogrod suggested it first. I know Shasta is brilliant as a wolf and I wouldn't put something like this past him, but nothing really points that way in my opinion. Unless he and Lommy are in cahoots, but I've not seen anything that would really support that, either. I'm more curious about Eonwe.

The general line of thinking was along the lines of "if WWs used the option to lynch Bom to save somebody, as the person I was replying to suggested, they had not intended that originally, since they merely jumped on Shasta's proposal - before that, nobody of the people seemed wanting to lynch Bom, so it would be just Wolves jumping on innocent Shasta's proposal - unless he is one of them; if he is, now THAT was a bold move..."

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Thinking about it again has led me to this kind of thoughts:
- Rikae was a logical hunter.
- As can be read from the tally, Eruhen was an ordo and thus not hunted down by Rikae.
- So no hunter-kill taking place means she was not hunting any of the four wolves.

Btw, good to say this aloud and clearly. I had the same in my mind, but somehow I think I didn't formulate it clearly enough: she was not hunting any of the four Wolves. I know it's trivial, but sometimes seeing it stated plainly like that helps a lot. This should also be remembered in future Days when chasing Wolves, we should compare the candidates for lynching with this in mind.

Originally Posted by LG

A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?

Indeed. That's what I have said as well.

WARNING: In the end rather unsuccessful attempt to analyze the situation of Rikae's intention and death following.

Originally Posted by Nog

So... if she hunted Inzil or Boro (two that would have seen most likely by what happened yesterDay), then she failed aka. the one she hunted is not a wolf.

Now it is also quite possible - and maybe even probable - that being the crafty player she was, she was not hunting any of those she suspected aloud.

Whatever the case in regards to the former, it looks fairly certain she tried to make herself look like a hunter (if she thought enough many would have gotten that Looney Tunes hint). So she was luring the wolves to try her (in case the wolves were not in her suspicions so that they dared to try it).

But that would then also mean she was comfortable with her hunting-pick, or just plain taking risks. And we'll probably never know whom she picked.

*AArrggh*

This is basically the same point as to which I have arrived above with this "if she knew they knew she knew they knew..." It is really messy. Okay, let's try to rephrase it - or "re-act" the scene once again. Since we know Rikae did not die, she must NOT have hunted a Wolf. Also, the Wolves obviously DID kill her. So what has happened here must have been one of the following. I will be using Boro as the example, although of course it is by no means the only option - the Wolves might not have gotten the hint, they might have interpreted it differently, they might have thought she was hunting Zil or whoever else was the possibility, but if I consider the hint, then at least I'd say Boro was what Rikae probably MEANT it to be; otherwise I have no idea):

A - Boro is not a Wolf
Rikae: Listen, people, I want you to think I am hunting Boro. (she indeed does so)
Wolves: Hahaha, stupid hunter, Boro is not one of us. *safely got rid of one Gifted*

B - Boro is a Wolf
Rikae: Listen, people, I want you to think I am hunting Boro. (she bluffs and actually hunts somebody else)
Wolves: We should not attack her. She is hunting one of us.
Clever Wolf: She is obviously bluffing. Let's kill her anyway.
OR
Stupid Wolf: Who cares. Let's gamble.

Now the more messy part would be analysing what Rikae actually had in mind when she did that. Because:

1. Rikae thinks Boro is a Wolf
Rikae: I am going to give Boro the hint that I am the hunter. He won't try to kill me and I will survive one more Night. (does not make any sense, in my opinion! Hunter is not here to survive, but to be killed!)
OR
Rikae: I am going to give Boro the hint that I am the hunter. He is a stupid Wolf, so he will say "yay, let's go kill Hunter!" and I will kill him. (makes even less sense, Boro would have to be completely crazy to do that)
OR
Rikae: I am going to... (you know the stuff)... He is a clever Wolf, so he will think I am bluffing and in fact not hunting him, he will try to kill me and I will kill him. (somewhat over-the-top, I'd say, though still better than the previous possibilities)

2. Rikae thinks Boro is not a Wolf
Rikae: I am going to give the hint... Wolves will see it and think I am hunting Boro. They will try to kill me in order to frame him and I hope I pick for my Night kill one of them. (would make a bit more sense than all the previous, but still it is rather mad)

So with all this, my conclusion would be that most likely it was something completely different, like Rikae pretending to be Seer or I have no idea what the Angband is that about.

Brain exercise. Thank you for your attention. If you did not make any sense of it, don't worry, not sure if it's very important in the end. I just tried to clarify the matter for myself, not very successfuly.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I meant if Lommy (or Eonwe, and/or someone else acquiring significant suspicion yesterday) is a wolf, then the pack could use their night kills to divert suspicion away from one of them.

For first kills, the "little to no trail kill" seems to be more popular these days. However, Rikae isn't one. She was involved in majority of the days action, and had some fairly strongly stated opinions. So, as Pom correctly rephrased it could have been a "Hey look, this person would have a reason to kill Rikae!" and thus get suspicion dropped on a wolf who was getting votes/suspicions on Day 1.

I may have gotten too wordy and confusing, but essentially I wanted to say that it doesn't have to be an either/or..."They killed her because they thought she was seer/gifted/a threat" OR "They killed her to divert suspicions away from one of their own"...it could very well be both.

Ok, yes, I think I got it, thanks...

Originally Posted by Boro

What did it accomplish? Well, maybe nothing on the surface, because Bom didn't really say anything. But what did it accomplish for the wolves? Not much other than insure one of their own wasn't lynched. I mean it sucks for Bom, and eventually we have to put real spies in the real noose. Maybe I'm strange, but I happen to think, if not a wolf, than any Day 1 that doesn't lynch a gifted to help us more than the wolves. The longer gifteds stay around, use their gifts, and gather info, the more of a chance they can flip the tide against the wolves.

Note: this makes Boro sound better. It sounds genuine and does not sound like something a Wolf would say.

Ugh. I have been again writing this over a long and often interrupted period of time (and that includes this terrible and unfruitful brain exercise in the middle)... will take a break for a while and do something useful elsewhere...

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie, Nog, and Eönwë

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

So repeating this for the last time, the issue was (narrated as I saw it back then): Zil requested from others to start "hunting wolves" yet didn't act on it himself, so I questioned that behavior, he did not react, I asked him again, he replied with the same line as in start which did not explain anything (at least to me back then), and so on, back and forth something like four times. I kept asking him only because he had not answered my question. Now he has clarified it to me by the end of yesterDay, so we're somewhere else now.

Legate's defense has me feeling slightly better about him, though I still don't understand how I didn't make myself clear on the whole issue. Especially to someone as sharp as he.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That's basically it, I guess. This argument eventually prevailed in my mind as in the others', probably, over the anyway uncertain suspicions we might have had (and a large part of it was probably when it got rolling, which was probably mostly my doing, I humbly confess, the decisive moment - but really, I don't regret it, even in retrospect. Of course killing a Wolf would have been much better, but for Day 1, at that moment, it was a right choice, I would have probably done it again). The main basis of my vote was indeed this "if not toDay, then never" and "we can still lynch Boro tomorrow".

I realize I think quite differently than most, and, as I said, I know Bom has done some frustrating things, but is voting for one's self on Day 1 really something a wolf would be likely to do? I can see some legitimately feeling like there was no better option, and voting for him, but there's got to be baddies on that wagon.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But the thing is, it was basically really orchestrated by Shasta. At least from my POV, if he had not pointed it out so decisively, I wouldn't have considered voting Bom, most likely. And so basically the only logical explanation would be that Shastawolf would come up with this brilliant scheme to turn the whole village away from voting some fellow Wolf by proposing a completely new lynch. It would have been brilliant scheme, hats off to Roy Harper, but somehow I'd find it really really really bold and such things don't usually happen.

Wanting to lynch Bom under those circumstances doesn't really seem out of character for an innocent Shasta. I think it more likely if Spies were involved they'd be with the later votes.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?

I can really only see a Hunter doing that if xe was very sure xe'd spotted a wolf. On Day 1, barring any kind of Seer drama, that just seems too unlikely. So I don't know what Rikae was up to.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I may have gotten too wordy and confusing, but essentially I wanted to say that it doesn't have to be an either/or..."They killed her because they thought she was seer/gifted/a threat" OR "They killed her to divert suspicions away from one of their own"...it could very well be both.

Sure, both could be possible. And if they merely took her Hunter-hints (if that's what they were) at face value, they might have gambled that it was too early in the game for her to have any concrete suspicions and decided to get her out of the way, especially of she hadn't been open about suspecting one of them.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think in combination with the Bom-voting yesterday, and with the Rikae-kill, there was at least one wolf under lynch threat yesterday.

When Shasta started pushing Bom as a lynch, Lommy had three votes and Eönwë had two.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Not sure how to describe it other than Pitch is sounding over-the-top, trying to show disgust towards a meaningless lynch. It certainly was a strangely agreed upon to vote Bom, but the shaming outrage "how could you people do this!" is out of place, and rather uncalled for. I mean nothing against Bom, but it's not like we lynched the seer.

I see your point, but to me Pitch has been looking fairly clean otherwise.

x/d with all since # 187

[Eönwë]

Back, and now onto a few other things.

Firstly, I'm interested by Pitch's find:

Originally Posted by Rikae

it may be more logical to leave Inzil alone for toDay precisely because he has made himself a target.

It seems pretty likely that if the wolves were looking for hints and suspected she was a hunter, this (as well as the wabbit/coyote thing) would have stood out. And it does, as Pitch says, pretty much say that she's picking Inzil. Whether or not she actually did is irrelevant, since no-one died. But if the wolves did take this as a hint, then they would definitely assume that Inzil was chosen. In which case, this whole affair makes Inzil look very good. If they got the wabbit/coyote hint and not this one, then it still makes Inzil look good, since he was her vote, and so I doubt there'd be any way he'd risk it. Same goes for if they didn't even consider her as the hunter. She voted for Inzil, so the link would be way too strong.

So, basically, what this quote from Rikae does is point to Inzil's innocence, and I suppose I may have overreacted a bit to his attack of me yesterDay, since in reread, he doesn't look all that evil. And he's explained his weird actions already, so at the moment I'm fine with him.


Next, Pitch himself.
Considering that early yesterDay he seemed simply careful about not getting too deeply involved anywhere, and that he started seeming more and more evil as the Day progressed, I'm starting to suspect that the particular he made on Rikae's possible hint post is simply a summary of a discussion he may have had last Night.

I mean, he's started garnering suspicion, and what better way to clear his name than to give us some much sought-after information regarding Rikae's killing? So he can use his extra knowledge to gain favour with the village. And then maybe the whole wabbit/coyote thing is just to throw us off the feeling that he knows too much, since it's a very related topic, and him knowing both would suggest that he was particularly looking out for hints, which doesn't look good.


Also, I may just be being cynical, but since I suspect Nog of being a wolf, this seems like an attempt to allay our thoughts on Zil (or Boro, who has also been suggested as a possible pick for her) being innocent:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now it is also quite possible - and maybe even probable - that being the crafty player she was, she was not hunting any of those she suspected aloud.

And then, there's the interplay between Nog and Pitch. I'm not going to go through it all now (still need catch up since Nog's 'Helsinki update'), but I remember noting Pitch trying to keep his distance from Nog by arguing against his points and making mild accusations but never going truly after him.



My other thought on people today is that Pom looks sharp and innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Eönwë suddenly jumped to my suspicion list with his last post. If anything, *that* sounds like an attempt to frame up a person. I can fairly understand what Nog had said and what Eönwë criticises as innocent, but Eönwë seems to be overzealously painting it completely black. And it really seems to me like an attempt to cast suspicion on somebody.

Starting from the use of adjectives like "sneaky" in the very beginning (with a post that is perfectly normal, in my opinion)...

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And I'm glad you also spotted Nog's sneaky post as the origin of the Bom bandwaggon, which is what I'm going to focus on now.

...using then those very decisive terms "not content with this, he adds..."

Then, not content with this, he adds this:

It's as if he decided that the first reason wasn't enough, and instead of taking the angered route of lynching the self-voters, he also feels compelled to find reasons for him being suspicious. Of course, either of these two parts would be fine separately, but what is the point in bringing them together? There is no connecting theme except for "Reasons to lynch Bom", which does not seem like the sort of thing an innocent would do at all.

...and making a camel out of a midget (Czech proverb - I think in English it's mountain out of a molehill) with this analysis and finishing with saying an innocent wouldn't do that at all.

And the final evaluation is what feels the worst:

Here he tried to stick it all together, and fails miserably.
(...)
Not only this, but he tries to soften the attack by using the words "half-serious" three times in his post. Three times. Because he knows that it is just a relentless "lynch Bom" campaign. And he doesn't want to seem like he's just coming up with this out of nowhere. He's waiting for others to pick up on his campaign and vote Bom for him, so he can just turn up later looking blameless.

Sort of a very, very, very, very determined and very, very, very violent attack, I would say. So I really don't like that.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Wanting to lynch Bom under those circumstances doesn't really seem out of character for an innocent Shasta. I think it more likely if Spies were involved they'd be with the later votes.

I'm not saying it's impossible, the question would be who. But I also think that, given the numbers, it is not very helpful to assume there would be some WWs among them, since we don't know which ones.

EDIT: x-ed with Eönwë

[A Little Green]

Legate more or less said what I meant to say. I'm really not comfortable with Eonwe's jump on Nog. I'm not sure about Nog myself, but the way Eonwe is painting him black without pausing to consider the alternative is alarming.

That said, I'm going to vote early again due to work tomorrow. "Early" as in "very soon", to be exact.

[A Little Green]

Right -

++ Eonwe

He was one of the ones I was least comfortable with, and that jump on Nog settled it.

Good Night, I'm letting Lommy on now.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Eönwë suddenly jumped to my suspicion list with his last post. If anything, *that* sounds like an attempt to frame up a person. I can fairly understand what Nog had said and what Eönwë criticises as innocent, but Eönwë seems to be overzealously painting it completely black. And it really seems to me like an attempt to cast suspicion on somebody.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Legate more or less said what I meant to say. I'm really not comfortable with Eonwe's jump on Nog. I'm not sure about Nog myself, but the way Eonwe is painting him black without pausing to consider the alternative is alarming.

Wait a second, isn't making stronger suspicions/accusations a good thing? If nothing else it will hopefully get Nog to answer some things about his vote and late-posting yesterday. I've had the impression Nog's playing carefully so far (not sure if I'd call it sneaky, but sneaky/careful are virtually the same in meaning).

I'm not following Eonwe's point here:

Here he tried to stick it all together, and fails miserably. The two points are not the same at all. In addition, it's only here that he goes for the "but maybe an innocent Bom could do this too" angle. Throughout the rest of the post, there's no indication of anything else, no doubt or deviation from his topic- it's just a list of reasons to kill Bom.

"Fails miserably" is more strong language, and not sure what you're saying by Nog trying to "stick it all together,"...perhaps clarification?

Anyway, I have to wonder what a wolf-Eonwe would gain by this strong language in going after Nogrod? Also, I think there is a point to be made with Nog stressing "half-serious" continually. It makes sense with my feelings yesterday Nog is treading carefully. I'm sure an innocent Nog would have reservations about voting for Bom based solely on Bom's unconventional behavior.

But, the thing is, Nog's trying to make his Bom-suspicions look like there is some objective consideration,but at the same time his posts look like a pre-determined decision to vote Bom and tack on the reasons to justify the vote. Eh, that may be unclear...But this could get wordy...

Unsure innocents always has to go back through posts to either convince themselves about their suspicions being right, or to see they might have judged wrongly. But with Nog yesterday, it's almost like trying to convince us his vote was being thoughtfully considered, when really it was a "here's why Bom's suspicious" case with some "half-serious" and "it could just be innocent Bom being Bom" added in to make it look reasonably considered.

It was Bom's self-vote to motivate Nog to go back and re-consider voting Bom...right? But you hardly have to go back through Bom's posts to convince yourself. I mean, it's Bom. We are familar with his style. What were you expecting to get out of his posts? If your reasons for voting Bom are because Bom's playing unconventionally and there doesn't appear to be other options you're comfortable voting for, fine, just come out and say so. Saying Bom is being mysterious/not giving anything away/not providing helpful input is like saying the sky is blue. It's not like anyone needs to go back through Bom's posts to confirm/deny reasons for voting him. Bom's playing randomly and playing like Bom.

You can't on one hand lynch someone because you're not comfortable with the other possibilities and here is Bom playing like Bom. Yet on the other hand go through a post-by-post explanation and keep tacking on the suspicions to justify the vote. To do so is just overkill. Surprise, surprise, Bom said something controversial/suspicious/crazy/random.

Edit: crossed with everyone after Greenie's vote.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

"Fails miserably" is more strong language, and not sure what you're saying by Nog trying to "stick it all together,"...perhaps clarification?

Ok, maybe "Fails miserably" is bit strong, and maybe I overreacted.

"Stick it all together" is referring to his post. I thought I'd explained quite clearly what I meant by that that ( ), but basically I meant the fact that he tries to give two completely unrelated angles about why to lynch him. The self-vote and then suspicious behaviour too. Basically the rest of what I said (and what you're saying in the rest of your post).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, maybe "Fails miserably" is bit strong, and maybe I overreacted.

"Stick it all together" is referring to his post. I thought I'd explained quite clearly what I meant by that that ( ), but basically I meant the fact that he tries to give two completely unrelated angles about why to lynch him. The self-vote and then suspicious behaviour too. Basically the rest of what I said (and what you're saying in the rest of your post).

Ok, gotcha now.

The "lynch Bom because there aren't other people I'm comfortable with voting for today" angle

And the...

"Lynch Bom because he's acting suspiciously/Bom-ish" angle.

[Eönwë]

Or rather, while the two are related, he argues them in an unrelated way, which just seems to turn the post into a list of reasons to kill Bom. It's like he set out to kill Bom and then just put down all the bad things he could think of, which is not the way an innocent does things, which is to find something suspicious, and then build on that.

edit: x-ed with Lommy.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I thought I had explained this already, but as it keeps popping up every once in a while in more and less fiery postings, I try to make it clear once more (we should rename this game into TIG XCIV "Where the Repetition is the Rule"), maybe with some added ideas based on Boro's few "new questions".

Yes, I was mad at Bom's self-vote, especially after all the rant there had been about the signifigance of making a reasoned vote.

Yes, I entertained the idea and was unsure about what to do; whether to stick with the principle (those who do not play should be lynched so that people would know it happens and thus would not do it, or stayed out of games they have no intention to play) or whether there was chances to hit a wolf.

Yes, I did more or less talk myself out of it even if I wasn't sure on how strong grounds the suspicions I had on some people were.

Yes, after Shasta started pressing with it - and it kind of opened out as a real possibility when some others also voiced their possible interest in doing it - I started rethinking it as a real option. I mean it's stupid to vote for a non-player if you're the only one to do that.

But then you forget what I aready told earlier - and you can check it if you wish.

I wished to have a discussion as to whom to vote, in the end there, like 15 minutes before the DL, got a phone-call from my colleague, and when it was done, like 10 minutes to the DL, people had already started voting for Bom and there was no reasonable scenario left but to join (no ties and thus double lynches). Picking up enough votes to lynch someone else at that moment was basically impossible.

So it was not that I especially wished to see Bom dead and somehow sneakily orchestrated it so that the others did the job for me (if I was that good, I'd win every WW-game singlehandedly whatever side I was on ), but well, it went that way this time.

But I'm not apologizing either. Like someone said, better an innocent than a gifted on D1, and I'd continue, better someone you can only do quesswork (throw a dice) than someone you can try to read and actually play with on D1.

Originally Posted by Boro

Unsure innocents always has to go back through posts to either convince themselves about their suspicions being right, or to see they might have judged wrongly. But with Nog yesterday, it's almost like trying to convince us his vote was being thoughtfully considered, when really it was a "here's why Bom's suspicious" case with some "half-serious" and "it could just be innocent Bom being Bom" added in to make it look reasonably considered.

It was Bom's self-vote to motivate Nog to go back and re-consider voting Bom...right? But you hardly have to go back through Bom's posts to convince yourself. I mean, it's Bom. We are familar with his style. What were you expecting to get out of his posts? If your reasons for voting Bom are because Bom's playing unconventionally and there doesn't appear to be other options you're comfortable voting for, fine, just come out and say so. Saying Bom is being mysterious/not giving anything away/not providing helpful input is like saying the sky is blue. It's not like anyone needs to go back through Bom's posts to confirm/deny reasons for voting him. Bom's playing randomly and playing like Bom.

You can't on one hand lynch someone because you're not comfortable with the other possibilities and here is Bom playing like Bom. Yet on the other hand go through a post-by-post explanation and keep tacking on the suspicions to justify the vote. To do so is just overkill. Surprise, surprise, Bom said something controversial/suspicious/crazy/random.

And they say I'm verbiose!

I'm not sure I followed every part of this, but I think I got the gist of it.

No. I was not proposing to lynch Bom because he is Bom. That would be stupid. I was suggesting it because of how he played, especially the self-vote. Especially because of the discussion on the very issue earlier that Day.

But then you Boro seem to fall into the fallacy of hindsight or that of wolvery (both meaning "knowing things"). You can choose which one...

Yes, I wished to go back through his posts, but unlike a wolf or a person with hidnsight on his innocence (as we have now), I didn't know if he was a wolf or innocent. So I tried to see if there was anything that would point to him being a wolf and using that self-vote tactics as a cover.

I mean you who complain about Bom's lynch seem to forget that he could have been a wolf. Or you knew already he wasn't and then as wolves rant on us others who didn't know from supposed "moral-highground". *coughPitchieCough*

So I see nothing wrong in both saying "I'm annoyed of the way he plays so much I could lynch him just for principle's sake" and trying to find out whether there is something lupine in his posts.

Blah.

X'd with a host of posts...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nog

Or you knew already he wasn't and then as wolves rant on us others who didn't know from supposed "moral-highground". *coughPitchieCough*

Try to make up your mind whether I'm being "wise with hindsight", as you said earlier, or had wolvish knowledge in advance, will you? And if you think the latter, then say it instead of just throwing insinuating coughs my way.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchie

I don't think so. The benefit of a logical hunter is not only that no innocents get killed if the hunter dies, but also that if the hunter dies alone and we can figure out who she hunted, we have a known innocent. That in mind, I'd actually expect a hunter of Rikae's format to leave a cleverly disguised hint about her target that we can figure out with hindsight.

If you really think that, can you then tell us our "known innocent"?

I mean yes, I can say Boro could be innocent, or then Zil could be innocent, or maybe Steve because she said she will "keep an eye on him", or... Which one that ingenius hint gives us to figure out?

Really. A bold hunter might try to lure the wolves to her (and there's no question Rikae couldn't be that), but would she then tell them, or even hint at, whom she is really hunting?

Originally Posted by Pitch

Try to make up your mind whether I'm being "wise with hindsight", as you said earlier, or had wolvish knowledge in advance, will you?

I'd tell everyone if I only knew... But I'm trying, trust me, I'm trying...

[Eönwë]

Since I've already started, I might as well post what I think of people.

Boromir88- Need to look at more closely, because I've realised I have no strong opinion on him.
Sally - Something worries me, but again, I'll need to look more closely.
Galadriel55 - Seems innocent to me.
Shasta - Looks like he has good intentions, even with the whole Bom-lynch. Looks honest and .
Pomegranate - Didn't post much yesterDay, but she looks very sharp and innocent toDay, as I've said.
A Little Green - She seems pretty good so far.
Pitchwife - I suspect there's something dark behind his previously spotless veneer.
Lottie - Ah, Lottie, I'm not sure about her. At first I thought her evil, but looking back on her posts she seems pretty standard Lottie.
Inziladun - I now think he's most likely innocent.
Lommy - While she speaks sense, there was something off about her early posts yesterDay, and she did have the most votes before the Bom-waggon.
Nogrod - I doubt I need to say what I think here
Legate of Amon Lanc - I've started getting the feeling that he's evil too. There's something about the way he posts... At first I thought he was a strong innocent, but now I suspect darker intentions.

edit:x-ed with Legate's complaint

[Thinlómien]

Who's this guy who's kidnapped Mr. Agreeable and started playing sharp and aggressive? Creepy.

Also, I don't understand why people are letting Boro off the hook toDay. I don't think he's any more his normal aggressive yet relaxed self than yesterDay, he just seems less tired and more focused. There's still something off in his manner if you ask me, his suspicions seem fabricated. (Okay, slight amendment, the novel of #186 from him looks pretty good.)

In any case, thanks for clarifying the Looney Tunes thing, Boro. Not that it makes us much wiser about Rikae's death, though.

Originally Posted by Legate

Didn't that mean the interpretation was wrongful? But I'd like to hear about that from Lommy too...

For some reason, this asking for clarification rubs me the wrong way. But if you honestly want to know, well, I just happened to phrase it that way. A lot of Lottie's stuff was misunderstanding what I said, or interpreting it in a totally weird light. Like she totally misunderstood my Lottie-Pitch-Zil confusion, if I recall correctly.

Randomly back to Rikae - can we read her posts the way she tried to seer-hint she dreamt of Boro and the wolves took her hint?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Haha, I just realized I mistook a coyote for a wabbit... that could be a dangerous mistake!

If coyote = wolf and wabbit = Boro, then what? She mistook a wolf for Boro? Given that bunnies associate with innocence, this could mean she mistook a wolf for an innocent little bunny, and the choice of the word "wabbit" as opposed to "rabbit" or "bunny" or "coney" or whatever obviously points at Boro (like he kindly explained). So I'm thinking, maybe she was implying Boro was a coyote in a wabbit's clothing (aka a wolf in a sheep's clothing), the wolves caught it and killed her? And you all probably spotted the gaping hole in my logic the same time I did - if this was the case, why isn't Borowolf dead? The ranger or the mysterious acolyte intervened? Rikae double-bluffed or failed to send in her pick? Pretty far-fetched... anyone want to help me with this?

And Zil - are you 100% sure you aren't the cobbler?

Another question: why is everybody working based on the assumption that the wolves are thinking about the hunter 24/7? I thought it was the seer they were preoccupied with...

[Inziladun]

I see Legate has come out against Eönwë now, and Greenie has responded by voting for him.

Eönwë's list seems rather vague and unsettling, especially in that he now considers Legate potentially "evil" after the latter began to suspect him.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also, I don't understand why people are letting Boro off the hook toDay. I don't think he's any more his normal aggressive yet relaxed self than yesterDay, he just seems less tired and more focused. There's still something off in his manner if you ask me, his suspicions seem fabricated. (Okay, slight amendment, the novel of #186 from him looks pretty good.)

I need to go back and look at why you said you suspected Boro yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Randomly back to Rikae - can we read her posts the way she tried to seer-hint she dreamt of Boro and the wolves took her hint? If coyote = wolf and wabbit = Boro, then what? She mistook a wolf for Boro? Given that bunnies associate with innocence, this could mean she mistook a wolf for an innocent little bunny, and the choice of the word "wabbit" as opposed to "rabbit" or "bunny" or "coney" or whatever obviously points at Boro (like he kindly explained). So I'm thinking, maybe she was implying Boro was a coyote in a wabbit's clothing (aka a wolf in a sheep's clothing), the wolves caught it and killed her? And you all probably spotted the gaping hole in my logic the same time I did - if this was the case, why isn't Borowolf dead? The ranger or the mysterious acolyte intervened? Rikae double-bluffed or failed to send in her pick? Pretty far-fetched... anyone want to help me with this?

I wonder if, instead of believing her the Hunter due to the "wabbit" hint, they might not have gambled on her as a Seer playing at one maybe, in order to keep them away from her. It's possible, I guess. And if she really was the Hunter, like I said earlier, the odds of her getting one of them were pretty small that early in the game.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And Zil - are you 100% sure you aren't the cobbler?

Care to elaborate?

x/d with Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And you all probably spotted the gaping hole in my logic the same time I did - if this was the case, why isn't Borowolf dead?

Well, that was what I was trying to say up there back - and I think a few others have stated it as well. The fact that no one died with Rikae that whatever she said or thought she suspected, and those who killed him weren't the same persons.

Now this might initially make both Zil and Boro look better as they were Rikae's stated suspicions, but unlike someone said just a moment ago, that isn't a big credit for either of them because Rikae would have been a bit foolish if she had said whom she is hunting as that is actually making her gift void and null. And I don't think anyone here will claim Rikae is a fool of a player. On the contrary. (It's possible she double-bluffed a round too much though).

Another question: why is everybody working based on the assumption that the wolves are thinking about the hunter 24/7? I thought it was the seer they were preoccupied with...

The modus operandi of werewolves is, first the seer, secondly the seer, thirdly the seer etc. but it looks like Rikae made herself as hunter the talkingpoint toDay.

But as some have already speculated, it might be also possible the wolves thought her as the seer. Maybe they thought her parading as the hunter?

Okay, I'm not sure this line of inquiry leads very far as it seems we come back time and time again to the same issues: Boro or Zil, or someone willing to paint them as suspicious?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now this might initially make both Zil and Boro look better as they were Rikae's stated suspicions, but unlike someone said just a moment ago, that isn't a big credit for either of them because Rikae would have been a bit foolish if she had said whom she is hunting as that is actually making her gift void and null.

It doesn't mean that it wouldn't be interpreted that way by wolves who just want to get the hunter out of the way early on, does it?

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish

Shasta - I think he seemed genuine and brazen in the innocent way yesterDay, also kind of too bold to be a wolf. No update toDay yet so I'm still keeping my eyes open.

Nate - her way of thinking seems more innocent than not, but I'm far from sure. I don't think I can read her yet, but she doesn't worry me right now.

Greenie - seems generally to be spotting and thinking things the way an innocent would. A bit like Pom - doesn't concern me now but might need reconsideration later. (Out of the two I'd bet more on Greenie's innocence though.)

Nogrod - ok I'm being honest here: I trust him. Don't ask me why, I was asking myself, and I don't really have any reasons for this other than gut-feeling and that we have agreed about many things. Maybe I should watch myself, but I simply can't see Nogrod as anyone I should be worried about right now.


In the middle

Sally - hasn't been around enough. I got vaguely bad vibes of her yesterDay, but toDay I've been forgetting she plays. I hope she posts a lot while I sleep (soon) so I can judge her better still toDay.

Pitch - honestly, I'm quite confused with his new, slightly aggressive style, and don't know what to make of it. Also, I find myself disagreeing with a lot of his points in this game, which is something that always makes me cautious.

Lottie - one of my top suspects from yesterDay, but now I have hard time remembering what was so bad about her except for the jump on Pitch's sarcasm, and if that's all, then... *shrugs* I'm looking forward to see more of her posting toDay!

Zil - if we had a cobbler, that's be him. I'm not going to repeat what I said yesterDay about his weird italics and use of opposites etc, but just when I started thinking he's maybe normal after all, he happily admits he's weird but calls it normal, or something of the like. Furthermore, he randomly continues the long-dead Legate-Zil thing for no reason I can perceive. It's just weird.

Legate - a little more wishy-washy than usual, and doesn't strike me as especially trustworthy in this game. Then again, there's not really anything against him either, and at times I can relate with him. A difficult case (although one I haven't been thinking too much about, to be honest).


Suspiciousish

Boro - when he speaks, a lot of it sounds like he's lying. That sounds pretty harsh, but I can't phrase it better. The whole Rikae-scheme related to him confuses me a lot, though. Also if you are looking for possible people to be saved by yesterDay's bandwagons, he's pretty high on that list.

Galadriel55 - my top suspect at the moment. It's not only her weird jump on me yesterDay or on Nog toDay, but mostly two details which scream wolf (which you all should know if you've read my posts but let me repeat). 1. When she looks back, she refers to whether she said she suspected someone, not whether she suspected them in her head. I can see no reason an innocent would play with this mindset. 2. She was confident enough that she'd be alive toDay that she spent a considerable amount of time last Night writing a post. A rhetorical question: who again are they who generally don't die during the Night?

Steve - yesterDay, I didn't see where all the suspicion against him s coming from. ToDay, I can quite see it. What the heck was that attack against Nogrod? Although it might still be too clumsy to be fabricated, but especially combined with his wishy-washy list, I'm not too impressed. Not my top suspect, but making himself look a lot worse lately.


edit: xed with everybody since my last

[Nogrod]

Okay.

G55 starts the Day with a full-frontal attack on me, which attack I find manufactured to say it nicely.

Eönwë enters the scene later with a full-frontal attack on me, which attack I have hard times calling even manufactured.

Now a bit more impatient soul might think you guys have decided last Night to go after me toDay and get me lynched, maybe making a deal on the issues each one would write as their own "cases" during the Night.

But there are four wolves and I must say I'm totally confused if your mates wouldn't then have told you two to act a bit more wisely as that looks just terrible. So I'm tempted to look at these two as two separate bursts coming from their own motivations, even if I must say the temptation to look them as a wolf-duo trying their best (which isn't a lot, sorry) is compelling.

I can see G55 making the attack half as a self-defence, but it is still quite over the top (and could be either). Steve I have harder time of figuring out why, unless it was decided already earlier that should be done. I mean unless that was not pre-planned, then I must have hit a point somewhere and hit it too well.

I need to check that... and many other things.

[Pitchwife]

Boro - of course it's not remotely like a seer lynch, and the outcome of lynching Bom wasn't any worse than any D1 where we don't catch a wolf. But after Lommy, Legate and Nog had gone to some length exhorting us all to make meaningful and accountable votes, I find it, shall we say ironic or hypocritical?, that all three of them ended up making a vote of which Legate said himself that it wouldn't tell us anything. (I'm willing to excuse Lommy, as she was under threat of lynch herself and voting to save herself, but Legate and Nog not so much.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

Pitchwife - At the same time under my radar and somehow - off focus? That's an odd word, but he seems kind of confused and sharp at the same time.

Bingo. I'm being a bit distracted by RL affairs and having difficulty focussing on the game as I'd like to... but thanks for the "sharp".

Eönwë's analysis of evil!Nogrod as the orchestrator of the Bomwagon would be a lot more convincing if he hadn't voted Bom himself, dropping all his prior suspicions; pointing the finger at Nog now and saying "He made me do it!" is a bit rich, isn't it? I was rather suspicious of Nog myself early in the Day, but this actually makes me doubt it.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And what seems most likely to me is that either one of his fellows was getting attacked, or those being suspected were playing suspiciously enough for him to want to 'save them for later' when it would be harder to get an easy lynch. So I'm not sure how suspicious this makes Lommy.

You do realize that Lommy is not the only one who was getting votes at the time the Bomwagon took off, don't you?

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Next, Pitch himself.
Considering that early yesterDay he seemed simply careful about not getting too deeply involved anywhere, and that he started seeming more and more evil as the Day progressed

You don't mean more and more evil as I suspected you more and more?

Originally Posted by Nog

Now this might initially make both Zil and Boro look better as they were Rikae's stated suspicions, but unlike someone said just a moment ago, that isn't a big credit for either of them because Rikae would have been a bit foolish if she had said whom she is hunting as that is actually making her gift void and null.

I don't think so. The benefit of a logical hunter is not only that no innocents get killed if the hunter dies, but also that if the hunter dies alone and we can figure out who she hunted, we have a known innocent. That in mind, I'd actually expect a hunter of Rikae's format to leave a cleverly disguised hint about her target that we can figure out with hindsight.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Eönwë's analysis of evil!Nogrod as the orchestrator of the Bomwagon would be a lot more convincing if he hadn't voted Bom himself, dropping all his prior suspicions; pointing the finger at Nog now and saying "He made me do it!" is a bit rich, isn't it? I was rather suspicious of Nog myself early in the Day, but this actually makes me doubt it.

If you remember, I was only one vote behind at the time, so I couldn't afford to choose anyone other than Lommy or Bom.

And I see, back to your usual suspecting then unsuspecting Nog ways...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You do realize that Lommy is not the only one who was getting votes at the time the Bomwagon took off, don't you?

She was leading though.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You don't mean more and more evil as I suspected you more and more?

Nope. I'm going to go through your posts and see why I got that feeling.

eidt: x-ed with Pitch.