TIG XCIII - Betrayal at Henneth Annûn (Game thread)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I dont know about that one. I'm more inclined to agree with Boro. I mean, with the exception of Nate, we all know how dangerous an innocent/gifted Noggy is to the Wolves. Its already been said: why him? Well, it was a pretty traceless kill for them. Yet the same could be said had it been myself, or Shasta or any of the other quiet ones. I feel a nervous pack would have been a little more hesitant in their kill selection which also leads me to believe that the Wolves want us to think this way. For all we know, either you yourself dear sallycake or Boro or maybe even both could have been the ones planning this during the night to help steer the conversation in the direction you so choose.

I don't really see the benefit of trying to gauge the "nervousness' of the pack from their Night-kill. I think it's enough that it seems very unlikely Nog could have been seen as a potential Seer. Thus, there is little to gain at this point by still focusing on the issue.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, I hate picking on Newbies....yet something about Nate's first post toDay does not sit well. I'm not sure what it is....maybe it's her wording....maybe it's the over sincerity of having forgotten to vote yesterDay. Okay. Now I'm going to go re-read (and read) yesterDay's posts. I'll be around but it may take me awhile to respond. *grumbles about the lack of a desktop computer/lapto and lack of Internet*

It's worth noting again how quickly Nate/Pom (did we ever decide on which nick was the favorite?) has gotten the hang of this. Could be a sign of a sharp, natural player, but a more sinister reason has to be at least considered.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

What's really bothering me is how easily swayed she is by others and its things like that that make me leery. Trying to appease everyone is a tactic seen and used many times before by wolves, or BN's in our case. Now, I will give her credit for sticking to her guns and voting for G55 anyways. Yet she was a part of the reason we lost our Guardian, and if I'm correct, the leading cause. Now, it's quite possible that Lottie is simply a misled innocent and I wouldn't mind hearing a little more from her myself.

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Glirdan has a point here, which has similarities to the point Greenie was after yesterDay. However, Lottie was the first one to come up with a lot of the points about G55, first one to actually start accusing her, and that would seem such forwardiness that if she was a wolf and knew G55 to be innocent she should've avoided. That kind of action would (and probably will) put her in the spotlight.

Also, Lottie's vote for G55 wasn't the first, that was Shasta's. But Lottie crossed with Shasta so she thought she was making the first vote there.
Now, starting a bandwagon isn't necessarily a terrible risk for baddies, but I thought Lottie's case was sound enough by Day One standards.

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

I think we should keep frying Lottie a bit, to see what she's up to, but I myself worry more about the follow-ups. Especially Inzil. In her voting-post, she says (gosh, I'm so bad with these, my apologies for everyone who changes genders in my posts) :

"I don't have any takers on sally"? I don't think she ever suggested voting for sally, or suspected her, unless it counts that in her list she mentions "could be voteworthy as a submarine", this being on the penultimate place on her list. This mentioning sally and the others in the voting post seems to me more like trying to hide the fact that she is voting for G55, like she would be reluctant. However, she and Agan are the one who finalise G55's faith by their last-minute votes.

First off, it is he in my case. I know the player details can be confusing. A perusal of the thread whence came this might help to clear up some of the ambiguity.

The only ones I felt comfortable voting for when it came to it were G55 and Sally. Since it was obvious no one else was concerned about Sally, I went with G55.
Some say one should vote for whomever one finds suspicious, regardless of circumstances, but I don't think that's useful. A throwaway vote is a wasted vote.

[Pomegranate]

But the fact is, you didn't actually voice your concerns about sally either. If you would've actually wanted for other people to follow your lead, you could've at least said it out, preferably outside of your list. Now it just feels like you didn't want to actually start accusing her (because someone might've noticed that if she was killed and an ordo), you hoped someone else would, and when they did not you just followed everyone else.

And in this I agree with Rune, I saw the kill of Nogrod as a straightforward thing, that's why I didn't comment it on my first post. From what I know about him, I'm not surprised he's good in this game (you'd all be surprised about how much I know about you, bwaha - thank you, my close IRL darlings). Plus by killing him they didn't rise any suspicions on anyone in particular, which is an easy solution.

And to question my getting the hang of this - yes, I'm a newbie to the forum, but I'm not new to the game, although this is a bit of a different version than the ones I've played before, both online and live. It might explain something.

edit. Ugly spelling.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

But the fact is, you didn't actually voice your concerns about sally either. If you would've actually wanted for other people to follow your lead, you could've at least said it out, preferably outside of your list. Now it just feels like you didn't want to actually start accusing her (because someone might've noticed that if she was killed and an ordo), you hoped someone else would, and when they did not you just followed everyone else.

At the time I made that list DL was almost there. All the votes at that time had been for G55, Bom, and Lottie. No one was even talking about Sally, and I had to make up my mind in a hurry.

Take it as you like.

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

And to question my getting the hang of this - yes, I'm a newbie to the forum, but I'm not new to the game, although this is a bit of a different version than the ones I've played before, both online and live. It might explain something.

Noted.

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Really? You know, I do sort of expect you to suspect me at least a little bit by now, but I like to understand where you're coming from when you do. I started off with one post suspecting G55, was taken aback when I realized I'd practically quoted Agan without knowing it, read over G55 and Agan's posts for a bit, decided it wasn't nessecarily that bad, and continued suspecting G55. You seem to be reading my posts as a continuous stream of suspicion with a sudden 180 in the middle. It was more of a sudden stop, look around, think for a moment, and then continue sort of deal. Again, issue with the term "wishy-washy".

I wasn't too comfortable with that term myself. And as I said at the end of the post, I give you credit for sticking to G55 and voting for her regardless, or did you miss that bit? I'm still leery about you. However, Zil also brought up an excellent point in your defense: you had though you voted first. Voting first an sticking to your guns as much as you had is way too bold a move for a Wolf, especially this early in the game. Yet you're not entirely off my radar.

And may I inquire as to why it is so quiet?? Where is everyone. *goes to airport to fly to everyone's house just to tell them to start posting*

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

And to question my getting the hang of this - yes, I'm a newbie to the forum, but I'm not new to the game, although this is a bit of a different version than the ones I've played before, both online and live. It might explain something.

Oh? Well, I guess then I don't need these anymore, if I decide to start going after you? *takes off fluffy-soft gloves*

In all seriousness, it definitely appears you know the game well, so I for one, will no longer treat you newbily. Which may not be a pleasant thing, but it would help if I actually suspected you seriously for something.

And since I basically agree with you on Inzil, I'm more inclined to trust you for the time being.

I know when he's busy he can seem rushed and agreeing. But he also should know by now saying you want to hear more from sally and Bom is like just saying something to say it. If that makes sense? They're easy targets for wolves because it's easy to get people to agree "vote for the submarines!"

But I know they're also frustrating for wolves, because if you don't say anything, than wolves can't twist anything to make it look bad. See, me, it's easy. If the wolves really wanted to get me lynched I'm sure they can find a bunch of stuff to manipulate and use against me...the trouble is I bombard with long and fanciful posts, it's overwhelming and usually not worth the effort. Much easier to continue the "sally and Bom need to say more" argument...when in fact you know

1) They won't

leading to...

2) Easier to convince innocents to lynch 'em

This is at least where I understand Rune's frustration, since he's been out of the dynamics for a while, and probably hasn't played with many of us...I can't remember the last time I played a game with Rune. Anyway, he seems genuinely not used to this many submarines and fluff posters.

Edit: Believe it or not crossed with Glirdan...visitor came who I had to entertain briefly.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As has been said, it looks like laying odds that Nog was taken out while it was safe to do so is probably what happened.

Going through Day 2 thus far now -

Originally Posted by Boro

That is what has me worried the most at the moment...that is there seems to be a lot of "Agan and Boro are probably both innocent" going around. It could easily be true, of course, but that seems to be the same conclusion everyone's reached, which is kind of strange...Agan, what do you think?

That does have me concerned, to be honest. Could be just that I'm me and you're you, though.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I dont know about that one. I'm more inclined to agree with Boro. I mean, with the exception of Nate, we all know how dangerous an innocent/gifted Noggy is to the Wolves. Its already been said: why him? Well, it was a pretty traceless kill for them. Yet the same could be said had it been myself, or Shasta or any of the other quiet ones. I feel a nervous pack would have been a little more hesitant in their kill selection which also leads me to believe that the Wolves want us to think this way. For all we know, either you yourself dear sallycake or Boro or maybe even both could have been the ones planning this during the night to help steer the conversation in the direction you so choose.

Eh? I'm not really sure what you're saying here, because it looks like you're agreeing with Boro in one breath and then suspecting him in the next.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

However, there are others who voted for G55 who need to be looked at it....or in Shasta's case, need to be heard from.

*raises eyebrow* Really now.

I'm going to ignore that comment for now, save for one of my own about stones and glass houses, and focus on your theory regarding Lottie - which is interesting; however it doesn't look any different to me than normal D1 Lottie when there's nothing yet to go on. In fact, I've seen worse from Lottie than "jumpiness" (generally something to do with something someone posted in IC.)

Originally Posted by Inzil

I don't really see the benefit of trying to gauge the "nervousness' of the pack from their Night-kill. I think it's enough that it seems very unlikely Nog could have been seen as a potential Seer. Thus, there is little to gain at this point by still focusing on the issue.

This is an issue I have every game - I don't understand why people decide not to look at the information that's right in front of them. Nogrod was chosen to be killed for some reason - why not make use of that information?

Originally Posted by Inzil

It's worth noting again how quickly Nate/Pom (did we ever decide on which nick was the favorite?) has gotten the hang of this. Could be a sign of a sharp, natural player, but a more sinister reason has to be at least considered.

This is probably one of the more specious reasons I've seen for suspecting someone. However, it's generally a given that a newbie is considered "hard to lynch" in their first game, so I don't really see Inzilawolf making an effort to lynch an innocent Nate. Still.

Originally Posted by Nate[/quote

Shastanis Althreduin votes for G55 for her habit of trying to move the conversation away from herself. This is the only observation she makes. Says she won’t vote for Rune, saying she agrees with what he said without further defining why.

Heh. It's actually "he".

Originally Posted by Boro

But I know they're also frustrating for wolves, because if you don't say anything, than wolves can't twist anything to make it look bad. See, me, it's easy. If the wolves really wanted to get me lynched I'm sure they can find a bunch of stuff to manipulate and use against me...the trouble is I bombard with long and fanciful posts, it's overwhelming and usually not worth the effort. Much easier to continue the "sally and Bom need to say more" argument...when in fact you know

1) They won't

leading to...

2) Easier to convince innocents to lynch 'em

I don't know that I agree with this - generally that leads to...

3) Deciding "we can't afford to waste a lynch on a submarine - if they win they don't deserve it" and moving on.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But I know they're also frustrating for wolves, because if you don't say anything, than wolves can't twist anything to make it look bad. See, me, it's easy. If the wolves really wanted to get me lynched I'm sure they can find a bunch of stuff to manipulate and use against me...the trouble is I bombard with long and fanciful posts, it's overwhelming and usually not worth the effort. Much easier to continue the "sally and Bom need to say more" argument...when in fact you know

1) They won't

leading to...

2) Easier to convince innocents to lynch 'em

This is at least where I understand Rune's frustration, since he's been out of the dynamics for a while, and probably hasn't played with many of us...I can't remember the last time I played a game with Rune. Anyway, he seems genuinely not used to this many submarines and fluff posters.

Come on, Boro. Do you really think submarines should be allowed to just lie low while the loudmouths duke it out? It's pretty difficult to get a handle on people when they either don't post, or stick to banter.

[Pomegranate]

Shasta: Sorry. I'll get these right eventually. The images in my head get clearer all the time.

[Bom Tombadillo]

Bllllrg. As Glirdan said, awfully quiet today. Maybe the wolves are trying to keep their heads down?

I wasn't really bothered by PomPom's swift skill - I assumed she'd done what I did, which was to read several games before actually joining one (or the 'Downs themselves). I did consider the alternative but since it was D1 at the time, she got a newbie pass.

Regarding this:

Nogrod was chosen to be killed for some reason - why not make use of that information?

from Shasta, I do believe the problem is: what information? Nog made a total of four posts, all substance-less with the exception of a statement that he thinks both Boro and Agan innocent. No suspicions, and nobody suspected him.

So, we've basically got the same things to discuss as yesterday, except we're now two innocents closer to defeat.

I'll check in periodically to see if the aforementioned wolves decide to poke their heads up, and possibly to mingle with you commons. No promises, though.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't know that I agree with this - generally that leads to...

3) Deciding "we can't afford to waste a lynch on a submarine - if they win they don't deserve it" and moving on.

Heh, yeah, guess it does usually turn out that way.

I like the points in Shasta's post, and therefor, barring something unforseen, won't vote for him today.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Come on, Boro. Do you really think submarines should be allowed to just lie low while the loudmouths duke it out? It's pretty difficult to get a handle on people when they either don't post, or stick to banter.

No. I've actually had this convo with tp (and I think Agan?) before. It's increasingly difficult to do much of anything if there's a bunch of fluff posting. And it used to be a great wolfy tactic because when a village gets loaded with people like tp, Nog, Agan, Sauce, Eomer, myself...and etc there were some pretty epic firestorms. And the pack could sit back, let us lynch eachother off, or maybe one of them would be a wolf to stir the entire pot.

Ah well, that trip down WW memory doesn't help much...but maybe I just need a good spar again...any takers?

Thing to realize is though, it's been changing for a while now, and there is more quiet and watch than active pot-stirrers. I mean, thankfully Inzil I never feel like you're submarining, but I also wouldn't classify you into the dwindling list of loud blabberers either. You've got a style that suits you, good, hopefully you like and enjoy it.

Point being here, hope sally doesn't mind if I use her as an example. She's really not that hard to figure out, and she definitely posts a lot but feels more inclined to amuse the mod, and if innocent, obviously will help by figuring out who's judgement she can trust and hopefully that leads to lynching wolves. But she'll always for the most part, keep whatever her thoughts are secret, until she figures out who's trustworthy and who isn't. Same thing, she's got a style, it suits her and hopefully she enjoys it.

I guess someone's got to try to get more activity out of the submarines? I gave up on that many years ago. Good luck. But don't confuse quiet behavior with blatant unhelpfulness. You know as well as I do, BNs need to give off an impression of being contributive and helping.

In the end, Agan's comment to Greenie is quite appropriate:

Boro is never genuine. No matter what his role, he always has something up his sleeve and is no good to trust.

Sad, but true. Not-trusting me is probably the smartest thing she's ever done. Although our history is a bit different, since her first wolvish game...against the counsels of her pack-mate Mith, I conned her into attacking me. Our WW-relationship is totally built on distrust...it's a lovely thing.

Thing is, in a pack environment, if necessary I will always take the noose to serve the better benefit of the pack...and that means the innocents can never trust me. But you also know, by now, that I will ruthlessly go after packmates if it will make me look better and more trusty to the village...therefor mates are silly if they trust me.

In an individual environment, I rarely ever want to be lynched...I mean seriously who likes that? But being able only to trust my own mind, again, I will do whatever necessary to save my innocent and pretty neck. Which means, who ever wants to tango, better bring a sword, because I do bring swords to dance offs.

[A Little Green]

First off, sorry I'm here this late! I have less time than I had counted on, but I'll do my best.

Now, the first thing that surprises me: we lynched a Gifted yesterDay (sadly, that's not the surprising part ) and yet I see very little discussion of how that came about. Sure, innocents make mistakes all the time, but I'll eat my hat if the Galwagon comprised only of innocent villagers. I'll have a look at it in a bit.

Originally Posted by Boro

Basically my head is about to explode with "do I continue pursuing Agan or is everyone right, that she's innocent too."

The whole of that post was rather curious, but this part especially - basically you make it sound like your pursuing Agan is an act, something you do, instead of a belief in her guilt. Now I understand your jump on her yesterDay was partly to fish for reactions, well, you did that. Won't work any more now you've come clean with it. Therefore, if you're innocent your dilemma looks pretty straightforward: if you actually suspect Agan, pursue her. If you don't, then don't (unless there's some further scheming involved, in which case go ahead. )

Originally Posted by Glirdy

*goes to airport to fly to everyone's house just to tell them to start posting*

Aww, make sure to drop by!


EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Runne and Glirdy

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

It would appear that our main source will be post 60, in which Galadriel makes a list of her thoughts about the participants so far. Her main suspects are Inziladun and I, but she does not have specific case againt me. Inziladun she finds is commenting on things without actually getting involved and this she finds unnerving.



According to the post Galadriel seems to have been a bit uneasy about Aganzir and Pommy as well, although it is of quite vague nature. She does think that Boromir raises a good case against Aganzir, but not good enough for any action to be taken. Pommy is identified as a person that are merely repeating what others have said rather than coming up with theories of her own; she is given benefit of the doubt.


Especially the suspicion against Aganzir seems vague, when you take into consideration that later on Galadriel sort of defends Aganzir in post 49. Also it is around this time Galadriels posts becomes focused on Aganzir’s Serious-Joke list, a concept she never comes to grip with.



It seems clear that Galadriel identified BN behaviour as being active, but non-committing. Since I have also been accused for such behaviour, it would mean that most of the people she seemed uneasy about could be put in this category.

In theory she was right, it is a tactic that has been used a fair few times by evil doers. So there. . . a bit of advice from beyond the grave.


I will try to look a bit closer at Inziladun and maybe look at the voting pattern, though I am normally not very good at analysing the later.

Edit: Crossed with Glirdy and Greenie.

[Glirdan]

So, as we all know, nothing of any real substance from her for quite some time (or anyone for that matter, myself included) until Agan joins and has her "suspicions list" with this reasoning for thinking G55 guilty:

Galadriel55. Says Bom is guilty of making jokes when he starts making them. Does this mean she didn't take it as a joke when he said he's wolves with her and sally? Encouraged by Boro, she takes her guilty accusations of randomness entirely too far.

After reading through the rest of the post, Im inclined to believe that it was done for two reasons:

1) To try and keep up the fun and yet at the same time

2) To start steering the conversation in a more serious direction.

Shortly after this our beloved deceased decides to make a brief summary of anything she had found important, leaving out all the banter and sticking to what she finds is important. Once Boro started giving his suspicions of Agan, G55 defended Agan, despite Agan's previous accusation, then proceeds to ask Boro and Agan to explain themselves as their behavior is confusing her as she doesn't find either to be very evil. Lottie then joins the and believes G55's behavior to be fishy and puts G55 at the top of her suspect list.

After Boro has given his explanation as to why he finds Agan suspicious, G55 still defends her, thinking her first post of the Day still to be joking, but still asked Agan for more clarification.

Now here's something Shasta said which I never really thought about until now:

I did notice something that G55 said earlier that reminds me terribly of a ploy I've used as a wolf - near the beginning, she tried to get people to drop the subject in a "okay, done, move it along folks, nothing to see here" kind of way. That much is just an observation, but I know it's something I've done as a wolf when I felt like too much heat was about to be focused my way.

I definitely see his point here, having used that tactic myself. Yet not just as a baddie. It's a tactic used quite often by any Gifted/Baddie to keep heat of of them. And now we know why she was acting in such a manner.

G55 the makes a quick analysis post on everyone, and only has two real suspicions: Rune and Zil:

Originally Posted by G55

Inziladun: gives the impression of commenting on things without involving himself anywhere. Pokes here and there but stays aloof. This behaviour unnerves me.

Originally Posted by G55

Rune: something ticks me off about him. Maybe I'm just not used to his playing style yet, since it's our first game together. The vibes comming from him are not good.

Agan returns and clarify's her first post for G55, but she still remains confused. Agan considers voting her with this reasoning:

I'm actually thinking about voting for you. It's partly your strange insistence on my list, partly your slight jumpiness (compared to everyone else), and partly what Lottie just said about your helpfulness without contributing a lot.

G55 defends herself against the accusations from Lottie and Agan. This continues for a short while with G55 continuously defending herself.

The Voting

Shasta: First to cast a vote as well as first to cast a vote for her, with this reasoning:

I don't recall ever seeing G55 mention the whole "dismissal" thing, even though I mentioned it twice. It may have gotten lost in the shuffle, but even so...

Lottie: Second to vote as well as second to vote for her, albeit she cross-posted with Shasta. Gave no reasoning in the vote post itself but had been suspecting her the whole Day

Agan: third to cast her vote for G55. The votes at this time were:

G55 - 2 (Shasta and Lottie)
Bom - 1 (Rune)
Rune - 1 (Bom)
Lottie - 1 (Greenie)

Also had been suspecting G55 for a better part of he Day

Zil: fourth vote for her and says this for his reasoning:

Looks worse than Lottie, I hate voting Bom Day 1, and it doesn't look like I'll have any takers on Sally. I'll not waste my vote.

Voting came to a close with the votes as this:

G55 - 4 (Shasta, Lottie, Agan and Zil)
Bom - 3 (Rune, Sally and G55)
Rune - 1 (Bom)
Lottie - 1 (Greenie)

Did Not Vote - Nate, Nog and myself.

(Dead innocents italicized)

Overall Thoughts

- Lottie seems the least suspicious of he four who voted, having had her suspicions from early on in he Day
- Zil is really starting to stand out to me, having had no real suspicion of her before. His explanation is also rather interesting, what with the "I will not throw away my vote" tactic.
- Rune and Bom's votes for each other caught my eye. Something about it bothers me, what, Im not sure.
- Agan and Shasta bear some watching, but both had reasonable an sound reasons for voting G55
- Sally's vote for Bom also has me concerned. It almost looks like a last minute attempt to save G55

EDIT: Seems I cross posted with everyone since my last