WW LXXXVII - The Valley Forge

[the phantom]

I understand what you're saying, McCaber- in normal conditions I NEVER kill my packmates. It's practically my number one rule as a baddie. But in this game one of your mates is against you and so long as he is alive you're very vulnerable. The traitor can take down the entire Forge, particularly if he finds his sweetheart and the both of them are trying to lynch the same people during the day (the other people in the village would definitely catch on if KD & Sweetheart do a joint attack, and it wouldn't count as revealing either because there'd be no way for a common player to know which is which- the two of them would basically be unstoppable).

May as well try to make it alone, especially if you're someone like me that believes you will pull it off. Like I said- no Seer to be scared of, so no reason for a forceful and active player to be nervous if he thinks he can influence the vote enough to stay alive each day.

(x-post Nerwen & Boro)

[the phantom]

I would love to do a reread of yesterday with the dwarf-eat-dwarf mentality in mind, but I'm too tired. I'll be around tomorrow.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Hmm I think Wilwa was a lucky strike on balance. From my notes she posted little and mainly discussed the game set up rather than individuals.Though her vote was on the money her reasons were more save Phantom than kill Bom.though she did remind us of the special instructions but was that enought to say "Lynch me I'm gifted" to the forge - it seems not to have alerted the KD unless Wilwa went her own way.

This seems likely to me– nothing she said seems like an obvious Ranger-hint. (Ahem! I'm afraid can't help recalling here a Mithwolf some games back explaining just why the pack killed Shasta...)

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

So in ch that case why did you jump straight in to complying with it?

And McCaber says this in reply:

Because if it WAS allowed to fly, it'd be a great way to get information out. I agreed with it, even though I didn't know if our Moddess Goddess would let it.

Um... you know, McCaber, no offence, but I'm not sure that's even an answer. Mith asked you why you jumped straight in without knowing if the plan would be allowed, and you said, "Yes, I did."

Originally Posted by Mith

Galadriel worries me a lot. I may be a poor judge because she was my abandoned cub the one and only time I have played with her but I have filled twice as much paper on her but it is a bit careful. Not much original - she agrees with Nerwen a bit, says Boro's predicitions is coming true. She does pick up on Eruhen's odd "nothing to add" in the face of TP's plan and points out that the plan is a de facto reveal - but seems to be looking for a way round it. On the less original side there are vote counts within 4 posts of each other, a list that draws no real conclusions - Wilwa and Pitch seem more innocent. Sort of stuff that makes a player look diligent but doesn't actually commit them - and all the misguided panic over the deadline- taking up Nogrod's cyber sheepdog role. Then the last minute attack on the bandwaggon.. just seemed it might be a fausse-naive bluff....

She's an enigma to me. Honestly, her opposition to the Bom-waggon really doesn't look that suspicious. I mean, if you were an ordo who suspected phantom, and then there was a last-minute push to lynch an "easy target" instead– you might well think you were seeing an evil bandwaggon. On the other hand, as you say, she posted much and said little yesterDay, and toDay her defence of Rikae against Pitch's "case" seems over-the-top– perhaps a "white knight" act? (Now, if he had really been going after Rikae it would be different– but I don't think he was.)

EDIT: Fixed bolding; clarification

[Mithalwen]

Ah but Nerwen is not the trick to try and play the same regardless of role? Not that I have ever succeeded really with a special role... tends to bring on melt down. Very frustrating to be so suspected for doing exactly what you normally do..though on that occasion I did happen to be a woluf. Others must be able to perceive a difference whatever I think...like what they say about trying to act drunk - people try to fall over forgetting that a drunk is trying very hard to stay upright...anyway digression...

On the subject of Mc Caber is this sort of thing normal? Because it seems odd to me to just jump on other people's work ... I can't obviously object to a G55 vote since I have stated her suspicious but voting after spending what time he had looking at Bom and then seeming to claim the credit for finding G55 suspicious looks fishy to me. Or more accurately wolvish... and I am sorry Phantom I am not going to avoid the term - in this set up we are all dwarves so it is a bit simpler than saying Members of the Valley Forge . I can't help thinking a wolf might jump on TP's plan. As has been pointed wolf on wolf attacks have a different dynamic this game. And to get an early vote in for a fellow wolf might look good too. So hmmm Now I may be being thick but I had assumed the 4 members of the Forge included the KD? IF it doesn't with Glirdan out we certainly can't rest on our laurels. If it does it does leave more scope for there being more than one devil may care wolf.

Rikae... don't know... I find her hard to read...but I seem to remember a certain amount of feistyness so ...not TOO worried.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

"He", not "she". Just letting you know.

Oops. Thanks for the correction.

Originally Posted by the phantom

It is entirely possible that this particular group of baddies is more likely than any Werewolf pack to purposefully try and lynch one another during the day!!

Now duh, of course we knew the KD was working against them, but what about the others? All they know is that THEY are not the traitor, where as every one of their fellows is potentially a double agent.

I'd already considered this possibility. As McCaber said, though, killing one another by Day is a pretty high-risk tactic, unless they see some very convincing evidence that of them could be the KD. I didn't see anything like that from Bom yesterDay.

Originally Posted by the phantom

So, without a Seer or Hunter to fear, it seems to me that the logical play would be to kill the other Forge members. And in fact accusing all three of your fellow members might be a smart play as it would make them extremely unlikely to turn against you, as they might fear that you are the KD and killing you would expose them.

But wouldn't that mean the KD was going along with your proposed (and abandoned by consensus) strategy?

Originally Posted by the phantom

All right- what do the rest of you think? If I was a Forge member I'd probably kill all the others and win it by myself.

And this goes back to the age-old discussion "I wouldn't do that if I was evil!!"

But if you want an answer, fine. Personally, I don't like the idea of being a lone wolf. Winning that way would seem more chancy.

[Mithalwen]

Interesting use of tense there Inzil, don't not wouldn't...?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Interesting use of tense there Inzil, don't not wouldn't...?

And I thought I was a pedant.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Pitch is acting abnormal toDay

You should have been there in Finland to hear Shastawolf cry out: "What happened to Mr Agreeable?!"

But, you know, your attempt there remarkably fits one of the possible reactions I'd expect from a Forger who has just lost a packmate - try to make the best from the loss by spinning it against those who brought xem down. Rikae might qualify as well with her suggestion that Bom could have been the KD - luckily, that seems to be off the table now (and thanks to Nerwen for making a point of what I'd said before her). Nice try though.

OK, now Foley's new ruling about not revealing the KD at death changes the dynamics a bit. Still, if the Forgers kill one of their own at Night, we won't need a map to identify his role - especially because the Sweetheart, once she's found him, would die along with him: 1 dead Forger + 1 other death = 1 KD. On the other hand, if the Sweetheart is killed, the KD gets his revenge kill and is also as good as revealed.
So, Sweetie-pie, if you're feeling noble and romantic and wouldn't mind risking your life for an innocent victory, you might want to find your Ironfist quickly, if you haven't yet. It depends of course on the numbers, whether we can still afford losing two innocent lives in one kill or not.

What this means for Forger tactics is that I think they'd be more likely to try and get the KD (whoever they think he is) lynched instead of going for him at Night, because they can't know whether the Sweetheart has already found him or not. Which, sadly, means that Forge-on-Forge votes will probably become more frequent now.

What this means for the KD: please be sure to leave hints to help us identify you if you get mislynched, especially if you have reason to think the other Forgers have found you out. You'll have to walk a fine line between hinting and forbidden revealing, but I hope you can think of something.
That said, I expect the other Forgers to try to confuse us by leaving hints of their own. But then, I think the real KD would have tried to hint (to the Sweetheart, if nobody else) well before all this.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

This seems likely to me– nothing she said seems like an obvious Ranger-hint. (Ahem! I'm afraid can't help recalling here a Mithwolf some games back explaining just why the pack killed Shasta...)

I noticed that too. She's a speculative creature, it's true, but this seems like baddie speculation, eerily similar to the game(s) you mention.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ha ha, no, I didn't think you were sucking up. Quite the opposite- I figured you were addressing me as carefully as possible according to your formulas involving me not being able to read you directly and also opening up an opportunity for you to read me etc. In a way the attitude felt copied and pasted from other Day 1s when you've spoken to me.

Heh, if only you had the formula.

Come on now, you know you can't lie (truths that don't lead to THE truth is a different, of course). You weren't serious about that KD stuff yesterday, just using some nice fodder for talk?

There is something different with Pitch, there's a fiery charm he's playing with right now. I quite like it.

[Pitchwife]

Haha, Boro, thanks - I suppose playing Live WW for the first time in Finland had that effect, to make me a little less cerebral and more spontaneous.

Which reminds me, Mith, the Jon Snow with a wolf is a character in A Song of Ice and Fire who was the subject of much joking at his expense during Finlandmoot. Just started to read the series and like it so far. It's quite a lot, though - four volumes, plus the fifth just out. Not a trilogy.

[Mithalwen]

Just what we need..more in jokes Ah well ... I have a huge to read pile atm and somehow the more people talk about it the less interested I am ...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I understand what you're saying, McCaber- in normal conditions I NEVER kill my packmates. It's practically my number one rule as a baddie. But in this game one of your mates is against you and so long as he is alive you're very vulnerable. The traitor can take down the entire Forge, particularly if he finds his sweetheart and the both of them are trying to lynch the same people during the day (the other people in the village would definitely catch on if KD & Sweetheart do a joint attack, and it wouldn't count as revealing either because there'd be no way for a common player to know which is which- the two of them would basically be unstoppable).

Don't know about that bit– Folwren was explicit that "almost-reveals" would count as reveals– it was discussed on the Admin thread.

Originally Posted by phantom

May as well try to make it alone, especially if you're someone like me that believes you will pull it off. Like I said- no Seer to be scared of, so no reason for a forceful and active player to be nervous if he thinks he can influence the vote enough to stay alive each day.

While this is basically a "good votes are bad votes" argument, it does make sense in this particular situation.

However, phantom, I'm pretty sure you're the only person Bomwolf accused, so....?