WW LXXXVIII: What Lies in the Dark (Game Thread)

[Lhunardawen]

An analysis of Nogrod:

Day 1
Believes Shelob would be submarine. Puts Glirdan and Lottie under "probably not voting my usual Day 1 suspects" list. Thinks the phantom makes fair points about Lhuna being stung, and would rather save her for Sam. Chooses between Glirdan and Lottie in the flurry of last-minute votes. Votes Glirdan.

Now what was that? Panic over lack of time? A sudden change of heart, despite the absence of posts from either player? Or an attempt by Shelob to save her first been-stung from the noose (which in this case would be either Lottie or Lhuna - for the sake of discussion)?

[Lhunardawen]

An analysis of Nogrod:

Day 2
Believes Shelob could be among the early Day 1 voters, or the non-voters (a long list including wilwa, Lhuna, Zil, Bom, Nerwen, Lottie, Fea, and Nienna). Unsure whether the phantom's Sam survey is a good idea or not. Takes the preliminary results of the phantom's poll as an indicator that Sam probably tried to heal Lhuna, i.e. she should probably not be lynched. Defends the phantom for doing good work in the anemic village. Agrees with Lottie that Shelob would likely sting people who can stay alive for a long time. Questions Boro for being defensive in response to the phantom. Thinks Lottie and Lhuna are not spiderlings, and Fea is not Shelob. Inclined towards voting Bom for being careful and for having forged suspicions against him, but thinks he might be a spawn instead of Shelob. Thinks Shasta could be Shelob for being so quiet. Says Boro is odd for voting Lhuna. Chooses between Bom and Boro. Votes Bom.

His quite sudden trust of the phantom's plan is unsettling, as well as his insistence on not voting Lhuna on that grounds, believing her to be most likely innocent. His track record thus far of being involved in the lynching of, as well as strongly suspecting, innocents does not speak well for him at this point - but that could also go for other players. If he is Shelob, it's possible Lottie is one of his spawn or, heavens!, the phantom. Or Shasta whom he suspected of Shelobbery but did not really go after strongly. Or someone else he did not mention so much. Gah.

[Lhunardawen]

An analysis of Nogrod:

Day 3
(Ah! The theory he meant involving Glirdan and Lottie was their conversation about Glirdan being visible. Huh.)

Defended his Day 1 vote for Glirdan based on the phantom and Boro expressing that they could vote for him, despite having others he suspect more. Explains that since ties end with no-lynches it is best not to spread the votes too much. Says he was pretty uneasy about Bom because it felt like Bom had orders to go after him (which I didn't pick up - I'll try to read Bom's posts after this). Has no special reason to believe that Lhuna is Shelob. Asks everyone to play with quality and take on a phantom mode.

...wait a minute. Something Nogrod said about the phantom (post #325) just made me realise something.

Some of us have been working under the assumption that someone who has been stung would likely try to get everyone's attention - most importantly Sam's - so xe could be healed and brought back to the good side. But now that I think about it, one could choose not to do that. If xe would rather be a baddie and try winning as one, then they would wait until they are completely turned and not attempt to get Sam's attention. Which means we could be going wrongly about some things.

Anyway. Back to Nogrod.

Thinks Lhuna should be innocent on Day 3, and the phantom would be of more use alive than dead. Trusts wilwa.

And now, for the main point of this series of posts...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And that would indeed fit nicely with Lhuna not being a goodie as then Sam would have tried to fight against us thiknig Lhuna innocent, and Lhuna's stumbling with accusing tp is a nice additional extra - she wished to play on a suspicion over tp but failed to make the claim he tried to oust Sam (which is a possible claim) and said he tried to oust the Doc (which has no sense at all).

...

If I'm right about Sam then Sam was against us giving Lhuna a pass because he had protected her against the major feeling... That I think matters here. Okay. I might be wrong about Sam but I think Sally wouldn't approve me talking about Sam openly at this stage.

...I still have no idea what he was talking about.

This entails that he has an idea of who Sam is. He tried to put forth his theory on Sam yesterDay and reasons that if he's right Sam would remain safe as he can't be stung by Shelob. But in that case Sam cannot confirm his theory (because of the no reveals rule) and what we're still left with is a theory.

This is making my head ache.

His sincerity in exposing most of his thoughts for us to see is, for me, the work of either an innocent trying to make up for the relative inactivity of most players in the game, or a baddie trying to get everyone confused and distracted from lynching Shelob. Would a Noglob be so bold as to place himself within everyone's plain sight. I think he might be.

That said, he's still my best bet. But I wish I had time (and patience) to look at the others.

[satansaloser2005]

Infected players are still innocent. Their allegiance only changes once the sting becomes permanent.

Also, you're all being amusing now. Yay!

How ya feeling there, Frodo? Can I offer you anything? Tea? Bug repellent? Cake? Rolled newspaper? Death?

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Infected players are still innocent. Their allegiance only changes once the sting becomes permanent.

Good. Thanks for clarifying.

[Nerwen]

Lhuna, I was doing my own analysis of Nogrod, but it got eaten. Anyway I doubt I could add anything to what you've got here. I mean, he's still in the "who knows?" category. Like everyone. I don't think the trouble is so much the weird game mechanics, per se, as that we so far haven't managed to lynch any spawn and thus have no connections to trace.

Although–

Originally Posted by Zil

However, tp had repeatedly said he would not vote for you, hadn't he? What I'm saying is that instead of voting for me, a lynch possibility,he went for someone who had no votes at the time, and someone who tp had also said he would not vote for.

A thought: Wouldn't it be awesome if Nog and Zil were on the same (evil) side, and Zil just made the bold move of using Nog's reluctance to vote him as a point in his favour?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

A thought: Wouldn't it be awesome if Nog and Zil were on the same (evil) side, and Zil just made the bold move of using Nog's reluctance to vote him as a point in his favour?

That would mean that I was either a spiderling giving a clear hint of Shelob's identity, or Shelob showing a link between me and my offspring. Not smart in either case.

I'm not saying, nor have I said, that Nog is innocent. I just found his not voting for me odd behaviour if he was evil.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

That would mean that I was either a spiderling giving a clear hint of Shelob's identity, or Shelob showing a link between me and my offspring. Not smart in either case.

I'm not saying, nor have I said, that Nog is innocent. I just found his not voting for me odd behaviour if he was evil.

No, I mean, you could be "hanging a lampshade on it".

Yes, it's thin. A gal can dream, all right?

[wilwarin538]

Okee. So I should be around randomly for the next 4ish hours, and will have to vote a few hours early.

Phantom
Inzil
Nog
Fea
Lottie
Lhuna
Nerwen
Shasta
Wilwa

So, in that list we has a Shelob, a spiderling, a Sam and a dying Frodo. I think the spiderling was created either from the beginning, or on Night 3 (since Night 2 there was no victim, and last Night it was Frodo), I don't know which, and that's annoying since knowing which it is could be helpful. There's a difference between looking for someone who's acted evil from the start, or someone who just started acting evil not too long ago. (unless we do know which it is and I've just missed something) I'm also still working under the assumption that Shelob (and therefore her spiderling) know who Sam is and will be trying to get him lynched (and probably trying to confuse him about Frodo).

So the people who I'd be really really suprised to discover as Shelob: Phantom, Fea and Nog. I'm also inclined to think it's not Inzil. Everyone else looks fishy to me.

I have to go for a bit. Everyone in the game best have posted at least once before I have to go. I want to have a bit of a read on everyone, instead of having so many people I'm unsure about.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Due to an unplanned trip out of town for which I will leave shortly (2/3 awesome, 1/3 my favorite English teacher died unexpectedly) I get to vote right now without any idea what I'm doing.

I know who I don't want to vote for (phantom, Nog, wilwa, Lhuna) but that's not for any legitimate reason (oh hi, gut instinct).

That being said, I'm going with

++Lottie

because I have no reason to trust her, but my vote is early enough that if y'all think I'm completely off base, you can treat it accordingly.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So, in that list we has a Shelob, a spiderling, a Sam and a dying Frodo. I think the spiderling was created either from the beginning, or on Night 3 (since Night 2 there was no victim, and last Night it was Frodo), I don't know which, and that's annoying since knowing which it is could be helpful. There's a difference between looking for someone who's acted evil from the start, or someone who just started acting evil not too long ago. (unless we do know which it is and I've just missed something)

That's if you're right about the narration, Wilwa. I agree "the others" are just the other villagers, because otherwise there would have to be at least three spiderlings, which doesn't make sense. But does the fact that only one spiderling is mentioned mean it's definitely the only one? I'm not sure. I'd say it's more likely Sally is being deliberately confusing because... well, you know...

Anyway, it would depend what Day/Night it's likeliest Sam made a successful cure. Unless Boro was the one stung on Night 3, of course.

Note: refreshed and saw Fea's Lottie vote. I suppose I need to look at those two.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.