WW LXXXVIII: What Lies in the Dark (Game Thread) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 05-05-2011, 12:44 PM

Just doing some quick number crunching here. We have 13 players, and currently we have 1 Shelob, 0 Spiderlings, 1 Stung, and 11 Innocents. So, let's see how many failed attempts we can afford.

DAY 1: 1-0-1-11
DAY 2: 1-1-1-9
DAY 3: 1-2-1-7
DAY 4: 1-3-1-5
DAY 5: 1-4-1-3 *game over*

So, four bad lynches gets us dead. And given the odds on Day 4 I'd say realistically three bad lynches in a row nearly kills us.

A successful protection from Sam would keep us alive on Day 5, but the numbers would be 4-5, so all of the Innocents would have to vote correctly and together.

If Sam gets both a protection and a cure we would still be alive on Day 6, but with dead even numbers we'd be as good as dead.

A successful Spiderling lynch would also keep us alive on Day 5, but again it would be tough sledding. A Spiderling lynch paired with a Sam save would again give us a longshot miracle hope for Day 6 but that's about it.

Now, if we manage to get THREE breaks to go our way (Spiderling lynches or Sam protections) then that would give us an actual chance on Day 6.

To summarize- if we kill Sam it seems to me that we're screwed. Because really, we cannot expect to be able to lynch Spiderlings with any regularity given the fact that they are not a true pack and do not have a dependable history to examine.

the phantom · 05-05-2011, 12:49 PM

So, first Lhuna looks suspicious in her first post, and then she tries to appease me, and then she goes and votes for one of the two people I declared innocent forever (Lottie).

You're just begging for my attention, m'dear.

satansaloser2005 · 05-05-2011, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

To summarize- if we kill Sam it seems to me that we're screwed.

So don't lynch Sam then. Really, it's very simple.

What do you mean you don't all know who he is? I do! Oh. Right....

the phantom · 05-05-2011, 12:56 PM

It seems the Mod is determined to have the highest post count.

(You know, even I don't do that in my games, and I'm as chatty as anyone. I'm thinking Sally must be terribly bored today.)

satansaloser2005 · 05-05-2011, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'm thinking Sally must be terribly bored today.

How did you know?

Nogrod · 05-05-2011, 12:57 PM

Back and reading...

After finishing my jobs I decided to install my new audio software before turning into this - and it took ages with all the different "activations", "registrations", "USB-licenses" and whatnots. Cryptical things. And it doesn't even work yet...

Anyway, I'll be around now for most of the time, first reading.

05-05-2011, 12:44 PM	#1
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Just doing some quick number crunching here. We have 13 players, and currently we have 1 Shelob, 0 Spiderlings, 1 Stung, and 11 Innocents. So, let's see how many failed attempts we can afford. DAY 1: 1-0-1-11 DAY 2: 1-1-1-9 DAY 3: 1-2-1-7 DAY 4: 1-3-1-5 DAY 5: 1-4-1-3 game over So, four bad lynches gets us dead. And given the odds on Day 4 I'd say realistically three bad lynches in a row nearly kills us. A successful protection from Sam would keep us alive on Day 5, but the numbers would be 4-5, so all of the Innocents would have to vote correctly and together. If Sam gets both a protection and a cure we would still be alive on Day 6, but with dead even numbers we'd be as good as dead. A successful Spiderling lynch would also keep us alive on Day 5, but again it would be tough sledding. A Spiderling lynch paired with a Sam save would again give us a longshot miracle hope for Day 6 but that's about it. Now, if we manage to get THREE breaks to go our way (Spiderling lynches or Sam protections) then that would give us an actual chance on Day 6. To summarize- if we kill Sam it seems to me that we're screwed. Because really, we cannot expect to be able to lynch Spiderlings with any regularity given the fact that they are not a true pack and do not have a dependable history to examine. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

05-05-2011, 12:49 PM	#2
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	So, first Lhuna looks suspicious in her first post, and then she tries to appease me, and then she goes and votes for one of the two people I declared innocent forever (Lottie). You're just begging for my attention, m'dear. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

05-05-2011, 12:56 PM	#4
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	It seems the Mod is determined to have the highest post count. (You know, even I don't do that in my games, and I'm as chatty as anyone. I'm thinking Sally must be terribly bored today.) __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

05-05-2011, 12:57 PM	#6
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Back and reading... After finishing my jobs I decided to install my new audio software before turning into this - and it took ages with all the different "activations", "registrations", "USB-licenses" and whatnots. Cryptical things. And it doesn't even work yet... Anyway, I'll be around now for most of the time, first reading. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...