Game Thread: WW LXXXVI - The Halls of Mandos

[Anguirel]

Elron, Phantom, shall we go Green?

EDIT: Elron, who are you thinking of targetting tonight? Or would you rather not go into that?

EDIT: Sorry, you said. Am getting to jittery to process. Errrr...

[Anguirel]

we've lost two precious likely innocent votes, those of Boro and Glirdan. We have to stick together

Elron, had you chosen phantom every night? Surely not, that's dedicated unease beyond even my capacities. Oh well, doesn't matter much now

I would target whichever of Nerwen or Green we don't kill today...seem reasonable? It really is down to process of elimination rather than positive guilt now. We're left with some deeply spotless looking wolves

[the phantom]

Well, either everyone is gone or they are afraid to put their foot in it.

So, here it is. Boro is the Hunter, folks. THAT is why I was so incredibly upset by his vote for me and then (it seems) leaving early before I have a chance to do anything. If you kill me, not good. If you kill him, you very likely kill the both of us (or at least I guess that I would be his Hunter pick).

Wonder no more why I spotted Nog's impending false reveal so incredibly early. I was looking for such things.

Ang- I sort of thought you were thinking it on Day 2, though for the wrong reason, as I actually did not know you to be innocent at the time.

The most difficult thing for me to discern currently is if Daughter is Cobbler or Wolf. I actually considered holding off on my reveal once she looked likely to go along with me (I had hopes that she was a Cobbler and could be persuaded to vote incorrectly), but the possibility of her being a Wolf I thought was too great to allow the chance of the Dead handing her a double vote.

I wish so badly that I could produce good news about remaining voters (Nerwen and Sally for instance), but instead I only know the innocence of those who have already voted (Glirdan & Boro) and thus I cannot hope to gain their voting assistance. I'm at quite a disadvantage in that regard, especially with Daughter still holding her vote there and the fact that I am suggesting it is likely that there is another Wolf among our remaining voters.

BORO- IF YOU'RE SKIMMING OR ANYTHING PLEASE PLEASE POST!! One post from you and I'm pretty well proven.

So yes, all my posturing and positioning etc. Just simply that. Though I was in truth hoping to glean from Ang yesterday if he had perhaps protected me, as I naturally would have come out at that time had he indicated such.

(leaving for home, be there soon, so fire away if you have questions)

[Anguirel]

oh damn I shouldn't have advised you; look, you mustn't let the wolves predict what you do. Whatever you do at night, keep it to yourself (oo-er no innuendo intended etc). It's your vote today that's of absolutely crucial importance

Phantom's been a lot longer than he said he would be. I feel like the sentry at the beginning of Hamlet, hanging on and praying for relief...

[Anguirel]

oh, there goes the Ghost of Old Hamlet

and there too goes the cosy progressive alliance, and my chance of an early night...

The only way phantom is lying is if he knew Boro wouldn't contradict him about something he didn't really know, ie Boro is a fellow wolf (desperately unlikely) or phantom has clocked him as a Cobbler who will stay quiet (quite possible).

phantom has laid off Boro all today (he rebuked him and me in frustration, not accusation) and did seem more genuinely at war with him yesterday. If he is the Seer, it makes sense that he dreamed of his major enemy.

What I want, phantom, is to know your criteria for narrowing down suspected identities of myself and the hunter

However this goes I've made a fool of myself which is really irritating. I shall go and comb my golden hair therapeutically for a bit

[elronds_daughter]

Phantom is either deeply confused or lying.

I do not like this turn of events.

EDIT: I would also like an explanation, good sir.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm here. Sorry, got rather kidnapped. Thinking about possibilities now....

Should we lynch Elra? If she's telling the truth, we can decide her picks based on our two top suspects, but if not we rid ourselves of an evil (direct or indirect). Just a quick think. :/


ETA: x'd. And Phantom, if you're going to say something, say it straight. I want to see it.

[Anguirel]

If we lynch Elrond's while her longbow is aimed at the phantom and she is truthful...good work. If she's not, we risk getting a cobbler, not a wolf

here are the two "models"

PHANTOM MODEL

phantom – Seer
Glirdan – Innocent
Boro – Hunter
Me – Glorfindel
sally - ?
Nerwen - ?
Green - ?
Elron – Cobbler/Wolf

ELRON MODEL

phantom – Wolf
Glirdan - ?
Boro - Cobbler
Me – Glorfindel
sally - ?
Nerwen -?
Green - ?
Elron - Hunter

if that helps...

[Anguirel]

I should add that, though it means have to swallow some gall for the millionth time today, I currently buy phantom's account more readily than Elra's. You are right, sally, in that lynching Elra does seem to be the best compromise in a way. But is a compromise what we need?

[satansaloser2005]

Sally's predictions

Glirdan: innocent-ish
Green: cobbler
Elra: hunter or wolf
Nerwen: wolf
Sally: ordo
Phantom: wolf or innocent
Boro: cobbler or hunter
Ang: gifted or wolf



Note that innocent=/=ordo. I have a crackpot idea about Phantom but I don't care to share. Nerwen is evil, period, and must die. I will also support a Greenie lynch.

Sorry I'm so direct and unexplanatory, but it's hard to do "proper" posts from my phone. :/

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I should add that, though it means have to swallow some gall for the millionth time today, I currently buy phantom's account more readily than Elra's. You are right, sally, in that lynching Elra does seem to be the best compromise in a way. But is a compromise what we need?

Yes. However, if Elra is a cobbler, this is exactly what she would want, and it may lead us to our doom. But it would validate her claim, your, Phantom's, and the claims Phantom made about Glirdan and Boro. If Elra's targets (assuming she really has any) are Nerwen and Greenie, and the real hunter (assuming she isn't) chooses the same picks, there's no way for us to lose.

The hunter's job is to die. Let's give Elra some work to do, eh?

[Anguirel]

sally I've just understood your nickname - to do with having cake and eating it, right?

There's a third model we should mention in honour of the (probably) inglorious dead, the Nogrod model. It's the same as the Elron model but according to it Boro is the wolf and phantom the cobbler

sally, do you genuinely doubt my claim? It would preeetty helpful not to, you know. It's not like I can't prove it (if the wolves don't beat us very soon indeed). I came out of hiding - a comfortable place - because the camp needed a ranger to rally round, and I am that ranger. Or rather, elf-lord

[satansaloser2005]

Ang, I believe you, at least until you're proven false (which I hope won't happen). I've an awful luck of hunting down gifteds instead of wolves, which is why your claim makes sense to me.

And actually, I just got sick of being called Stan.

(They were going to call me Sal, but that sounded too masculine so it ended up as Sally.)

[the phantom]

Home and posting...

[Anguirel]

Oh, I meant the cupcake thing

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Yes. However, if Elra is a cobbler, this is exactly what she would want, and it may lead us to our doom. But it would validate her claim, your, Phantom's, and the claims Phantom made about Glirdan and Boro. If Elra's targets (assuming she really has any) are Nerwen and Greenie, and the real hunter (assuming she isn't) chooses the same picks, there's no way for us to lose.

The hunter's job is to die. Let's give Elra some work to do, eh?

difficulty here. It's been as you know a long time for me but don't lynched hunters kill their last pick? So phantom would go down. That wouldn't be too bad though, after all, as if Elron has the power she claims he is guilty of something.

How many malevolent votes do you reckon are left? If three exist still, we are in very serious trouble by phantom's account

[satansaloser2005]

Oh. Yes, indeed. Cupcakes. ^_^

Well I'm assuming the hunter can change their pick, unless Rikae decides to not allow it. And I don't recall whether the hunter is an intelligent one or not. I feel so useless. :/

Also, the dead need to PLEASE SHUT UP. It's far too tempting to go creep on you. >.<

[satansaloser2005]

About the votes, I suppose it depends on who's telling the truth. I'm an innocent who still has yet to vote, but I don't know for certain about any of the others. :/

[satansaloser2005]

Phantom: if you're the seer, what else do you know? I want everything. Now.

ETA: Erm, please.

[Anguirel]

It's a normal 'illogical' hunter. I think that just means they can whack innocents point blank range by accident. And I think if lynched by day the last choice stands...?

Let the dead talk if it makes Rikae more pleased with her petri dish...

Incidentally, do you think either Nessa or Loslote were wolves?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Sally

And Phantom, if you're going to say something, say it straight. I want to see it.

Sorry, lass, but I wanted to give every opportunity to the baddies to sniff my move ahead of time and false reveal, as it would yield yet another piece to the puzzle, and I also wanted to see which way people were pushing before additional knowledge was added. It really irks me that during that whole time period no one showed up that really mattered.

Night 1 was Fea. Surprise, surprise. Her behavior is so counter to mine that I find her very difficult to read and often try and get her killed for the sake of convenience. This time I wished to break with tradition.

Night 2 was not Ang (on Day 2 I sort of had the impression that you believed I had dreamed you, where as that wasn't actually the case). Night 2 was Shasta. Flippin Shasta. I was more wary of him than I let on Day 1, which I thought would be a good tactic should I have found him to be evil. But of course I didn't. And perhaps this explains why I reacted as I did to Shasta's killing and the notion that he appeared to be a Lover. I took great offense to the idea as it not only insinuated poor play from Shasta but a stupid selection from me.

Night 3- that was you, Ang. The way you reacted to me the day before I actually thought would be quite a good tactical position for a Wolf (your comment to Fea about the two of you dying I thought stemmed from my belief in the innocence of the two of you). Then you could kill me at Night and say, "They probably thought he was the Seer due to him declaring me and Fea innocent" if you follow.

Night 4 was Glirdan. I wondered if he was using his certainty about Wilwa as a look-good shield. Nope, he wasn't.

Night 5 was Boro, hence my frustration with him.

I wasn't concerned with revealing much, as for one thing the village looked much larger before Legate and Wilwa were zapped, and for another thing I had Glorfy in my pocket. So long as he was alive I didn't greatly fear death, as he could carry my dreams back to the living and I could organize the Dead to hand an extra vote to the person who looked most likely to slay someone that I didn't know to be innocent. If the lynch mob had gone Ang's way yesterday I would've outed (as we would've been on the verge of losing my link), but as things worked out I just never saw a reason to, seeing as I had never at any point identified a freaking single Cobbler or Wolf (the primary root of my annoyance).

So, while I may have been a relatively bad Seer, I think my overall approach was quite good, and I feel this info gives us some hope. (I'm also rather hoping that either Nessa or Lottie was a Wolf, but we'll see I guess.)

[satansaloser2005]

Ang, if I may ask, what was with the "I'd almost rather die" nonsense? Ranger hints? 'Cause that looked mighty weird, mate.

And at least one of Lottie or Nessa was a wolf. They had to be.

[Rikae]

Rule clarification: The hunter can change their pick Day or Night, and is illogical, meaning the one picked will die regardless of role.

[Anguirel]

Sigh. Clearly true. All that stuff to me about Day 2 and emotion too weird to have arranged in advance.

If there are still three wolves though we are in such big trouble. And if there are three wolves and a cobbler...I think we could still prevail statistically, but the effort would be superelven

[Anguirel]

If you read my posts you'll find I explained that in passing. I wasn't Glorfindel at that point, and I expressed my deathwish basically because it was true, but also vaguely because as an innocent I hoped to soak up a Seer kill and then do cool tactical stuff of some variety in Mandos

[Anguirel]

phantom - you said, today, I had been in your last three suspects to be Glorfindel/a Hunter. Was this just an obscuration of your knowledge's full extent or did you mean something specific by it?

[Nerwen]

So, in my absence we've had a Ranger reveal, a Seer reveal, and two competing Hunter reveals?

EDIT:X'd with some Anguirels.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

If you read my posts you'll find I explained that in passing. I wasn't Glorfindel at that point, and I expressed my deathwish basically because it was true, but also vaguely because as an innocent I hoped to soak up a Seer kill and then do cool tactical stuff of some variety in Mandos

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, I get it. >.<

Also, Rikae, thanks for the clarification.

[Anguirel]

Nope. A Glorfindel reveal, a Hunter reveal, and a Seer reveal that encompassed the revelation of a separate Hunter claim...

...have to get these things right at this point, puppy...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, in my absence we've had a Ranger reveal, a Seer reveal, and two competing Hunter reveals?

EDIT:X'd with some Anguirels.

Ain't life grand?


I'll be back in five minutes with a helpful chart.

[the phantom]

Whatever we do we need to vote together. I agree that Daughter is a good compromise candidate (for those who doubt my claim), but of course the primary problem with that from my perspective is I know she's false and it seems to me that she's a more likely Cobbler than Wolf. A false declaration of Hunterhood from a Wolf pretty well invites the real Hunter to kill him, doesn't it? Unless of course it's the usual double-bluff do the obvious thing... I don't know... It almost depends on who her partner(s) is as to whether or not I think she'd try such a thing.

Sally and Nerwen are left to vote, and of the two I do in fact suspect Sally the most, but I can hardly expect her to help with her own lynching. And Daughter's help is out of the question. It would require a unified Ang, Nerwen, and Phantom with the aid of the extra Dead vote. How likely is it that one of us holds the extra vote?

Green is the other good compromise besides Daughter since she has already voted, however she is the one I least suspect of the girls. Bleh.

Assume for a minute we've killed one Wolf then.... Should we kill Daughter today, we can assume Ang can buy me another night with which I will view Sally, Nerwen, or Green. IF we only have two WWs left here, then there would be enough of us to vote down a Wolf if I caught one, and if I don't catch one then it would be a debate between two candidates, yes? And of course with our Hunter still up our sleeve for killing the remaining Wolf, along with a protecting Ang.... That actually doesn't seem impossible.

I suppose my view is- it doesn't do to dwell on the possibility of a three-Wolf pack with votes in their paws still, as that's simply a loss.

Ang- what are you thinking?

(edit: x-posted with several)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Nope. A Glorfindel reveal, a Hunter reveal, and a Seer reveal that encompassed the revelation of a separate Hunter claim...

...have to get these things right at this point, puppy...

Puppy yourself. I only just got in and haven't had to time to read properly.

EDIT:X'd with phantom.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Ang

phantom - you said, today, I had been in your last three suspects to be Glorfindel/a Hunter. Was this just an obscuration of your knowledge's full extent or did you mean something specific by it?

It was partly obscuration, but also a bit of truth as I did know you but I didn't know the Hunter, but believed I had it narrowed down to two- Green or Boro. Yes, indeed Boro was at the same time a suspect and a Hunter suspect. Whatever he was I felt he had a role, and the thought certainly crossed my mind that I was mistaking our other Gifted for a Wolf. It is this reason that I often purposefully try to lynch Ordos on Day 1 even as an innocent, because early in the game I can never tell apart the vibes I'm getting. I figure the person is something special, I just don't know if good or bad. It sort of annoyed me to pick Boro for a dream so late in a contest, as I nearly always feel I have him sorted out by Day 3 or so.

[Anguirel]

Well then phantom, I'd put sally out of your sights for the present. Unless we have a full pack against us - which I actually think would still be just possible to beat - her guilt relies on what seems to me one or both of two really out there wolf-for-wolf votes. So if you regard the intact pack as a "loss", stay optimistic and avoid her. That also, as your gloomy realpolitik observes, means we can channel her vote...

I wouldn't dream of her tonight if you want to get that wolf for your Seer record, either, but of course that's up to you.

I'm come round to your point of view about the non validity of Nerwen's story but goodness it was bold. Added by edit, forsooth...

Sally seems willing to help bag Nerwen. Can't myself say I mind that as a genuine wolf-pursual option. It is quite likely she's guilty. There are definitely more than one of these critters even if not the full bunch.

But I would be willing after all to settle for yonder Undomiel with her stylish, but probably non functional hunting kit...

[satansaloser2005]

This chart assumes the legitimacy of Phantom’s seer reveal. If he’s lying, I just wasted my time and will personally kill him when I see him tomorrow. Fair warning, Prince Pudding.

Dead players are italicized, moddess/dead-confirmed roles are bolded. Phantom-confirmed roles are dipped in chocolate and dusted with powdered sugar….but there’s no tag for that.

PLAYERS
Shasta: lover
Nog: probable wolf (I believe he’d want to make his pack’s presence known on the dead thread)
Agan: lover
Glirdan: ordo
Green: unknown
Elra: wolf or cobbler
Manwe: unknown, likely ordo (my assumption, given that Day One was, as usual, a mess, though I won’t swear by this)
Nerwen: unknown
Lottie: unknown
Wilwa: ordo
Legate: cobbler
Lommie: non-wolf (innocent or cobbler)
Nessa: unknown
BG: ordo (formerly Glorfindel, if Ang can be believed)
Sally: ordo (and just darn adorable)
Phantom: seer
Boro: hunter
Mith: innocent of some kind
Ang: ranger
Fea: innocent


That means of the roles, we have the following unaccounted for….

Three wolves, two cobblers, and four ordos.

Assuming Phantom is telling the truth, it’s impossible for all three wolves to be alive; they’d have hopped onto the vote for Phantom by now and the game would be over. Thus, one of the following dead must be a wolf:

Nog, Lottie, Nessa

Obviously they can’t all be wolves, because, again, the game would be over. Adding in the living unknown players, our wolf pack must contain three of the following players:

Nog, Green, Elra, Manwe, Nerwen, Lottie, Nessa

That makes our lynch choice for toDay one of the following:

Green, Elra, and Nerwen


We’re betting a lot on Phantom’s information. I say we have Elra keep her pick on Phantom and test their claims. If Elra is telling the truth, we’ll be out a phabbler or a pholf, and if she’s lying, we’ll have lynched us some sort of baddie. My hunch rests with the latter, but that’s my prerogative.


What do you say, folks? Shall we get ourselves a bucketload of tasty information toDay?



A closing note: Yes, I know, I’m not a confirmed innocent. But I’m hardly going to suggest I be a lynch choice, especially since I’m an ordo, am I? I think not. So nyah.

Another note: I just auto-saved this so I could post it from my phone, not caring what the title was, and Word just took the first few words for the title. Thus, I have a file on my phone called “this chart assumes the legitimacy of Phantom.”

EDIT: x'd since my last

[elronds_daughter]

Right.

Must go now, so I'm voting.

++ phantom

Because I know he's lying. And if you kill me he dies anyways.

[the phantom]

Question- if we three vote for Nerwen and she is a Wolf, what is to stop her from voting with Daughter for Boro and possibly killing both him and me?

(x-post with vote, which makes my comment useless)

[Nerwen]

Phantom, your account of yourself does actually make quite a lot of sense... All the same, your actions for quite a while back have not looked all that innocent, and following a false Seer would do for us. So I guess the best thing would indeed be to test your respective claims by lynching Elra

Only, this is also true:

I agree that Daughter is a good compromise candidate (for those who doubt my claim), but of course the primary problem with that from my perspective is I know she's false and it seems to me that she's a more likely Cobbler than Wolf. A false declaration of Hunterhood from a Wolf pretty well invites the real Hunter to kill him, doesn't it?

But still, one of you has to be evil, and that's probably the best option right now. (Unless of course Boro turns up and anti-reveals.)

EDIT:X'd since phantom #752.

[the phantom]

Unless I am mistaken, this is where the votes stand:

Boro- 1
Sally- 1
Phantom- 2

Left to vote:
Sally
Nerwen
Phantom
Ang

[satansaloser2005]

I'm done discussing.

++Elra


One way or another, a baddie's going to die toDay.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Assuming Phantom is telling the truth, it’s impossible for all three wolves to be alive; they’d have hopped onto the vote for Phantom by now and the game would be over.

They could still do so. I would relish that moment were I among them...

Oh well. I'm without sin, I cast the first stone:

++ 'ARWEN UNDOMIEL', OR SISTER THEREOF, CERTAINLY NOT CELEBRIAN, IN ANY CASE, ELROND'S DAUGHTER

she has this advantage too - I doubt the extra wote went to her. Quite likely to have gone to Nerwen

"But come! There is no time for further news. Since you are here we must risk the peril of the Road and go. There are some behind us, and when they find your trail upon the Road they will ride after us like the wind. And they are not all. Where the others may be, I do not know. I fear that we may find the Ford is already held against us."

EDIT: ha, I failed to cast the first stone. I'll leave the second one as a token of the Bridge of Mitheithel, then