New evidence for the Arkenstone-Silmaril case

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I'm with Nerwen here, it's highly unlikely that the Arkenstone is meant to be one of the Silmarils.

That said, there are sure lots of similarities between the two gems and they are hardly coincidental. Tolkien probably had the Silmarils in mind when he described the Arkenstone - he of course created the backstory of the Silmarillion long before he ever thought of Hobbits - and recycled that particular idea (a beautiful, radiant gem-stone that stirs up greed despite it's pure origins) for his new children's book, among many other recycled ideas from the Silmarillion, a work he probably never thought would see the inside of a printing press anyway.