Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI

[Nogrod]

Sorry, but I'm now going to end this "I know you can't trust me on this issue, but maybe you could be so nice as to consider..." etc. stuff and will go straight into how this game is now. You can then think yourselves whether you consider it worthwhile or not. Up to you.


Residents of Mandos:

Mänwe - ordinary innocent (N3 dream)
Nogrod - the seer
Blind Guardian - innocent whose role has been taken away
Feanor of the Peredhil - ordo or cobbler
Aganzir - Beren (also N1 dream)
Shastanis Althreduin - Lúthien
Thinlómien - ordo or cobbler
Nessa Telrunya - ordinary innocent (N4 dream)
Loslote - ordinary innocent (N5 dream)
Mithalwen - unknown innocent

In the living thread are still:

Glirdan
A Little Green
elronds_daughter
Nerwen
satansaloser2005
the phantom - a cobbler (N2 dream)
Boromir88
Anguirel

So 8 players.

3 wolves (until either Wilwa or Legate were wolves) and at least one cobbler (tp). Unless Mith is the ranger, there are four innocents including the ranger and the hunter.

Be that as it may, the most probable scenario seems to be there are 3 wolves + 1-2 cobblers (wilwa or Legate could have been cobblers but probably not wolves) vs. 3-4 goodies.

Looking at how easily the wolves have handled the lynches thus far there is no reason to believe they'd fare any worse toDay with the remarkably smaller village where they are even able to take some risks toDay to meet their ends.

In any case, they need only two non-wolves killed and they win, while the chances that the villagers manage to actively lynch one of them are slim indeed, in not just nonexistent.

So in practise the thing that could grant us some added time is the hunter getting killed and taking one wolf down with her/him.

Here: enter the cobblers who know their math.

My prediction: the phantom will try to get lynched toDay to give the wolves a non-hunter to the gallows to make it safe for the wolves (and he'd love to get in here to spend even the last Night among us here - basically to brag; I presume ). And why not, if there is another cobbler, s/he might try the same... (whom, if identified correctly by the ranger would lead to the odd situation where the ranger's best bet would be to protect a cobbler...)

A ranger-save could prolong the game with at least one Day as well.

Although the wolves might drive for a double-lynch as well toDay.


All in all, I'm not too optimistic about the general situation, but I am slightly optimistic that we can come up with decently believable chart of the roles down there among the living with the aid of which we could try to help the villagers with the lynch - if they can pull their act together that much as to get one wolf contending for the lynching for real. Without that there's no way we can help them now.


EDIT: X'd with Rikae & Mith - So Legate was a cobbler! Good news for a change.

[Nogrod]

YesterDay's voting:

Ang -> Lottie
Green -> Sally
Nerwen -> Elron
Sally -> Lottie 2
Lottie -> Wilwa
Glirdan -> Ang
NONWOLFMith -> Lottie 3
COBBLERtp -> Elron 2
Elron -> Boro
++ Ang -> Lottie 4

I'm somehow uneasy with Fea there.It may be I'm paranoid as she basically did well to prevent the double-lynch. But something still bugs me.

The reason for it I can see though: with Fea's decision it is clear Elron, whom many of us suspected more or less, was saved. Also Fea's claim to do that to prevent a double-lynch 9 minutes before the DL when there were still 7 votes possibly coming looks a bit odd and casts a doubt on to her motives behind the move.

This is what she said 9 minutes before the DL when changing her vote from Nerwen (voted Elron) to Anguirel (voted Lottie):

I don't want to allow for a double lynch, so I'm going to change my vote since I haven't trusted Lottie in quite some time.

The interesting thing here is that the dead votes thus far had been:

Fea - Nerwen --> ed
Lommy - Greenie --> sally
Agan - Nerwen --> ed
Nog - Angu --> Lottie

And Shasta hadn't voted. The probability that if he turned around to vote was high he'd gone with Agan in voting Nerwen as well (thus giving our extravote against Elron). With changing her vote Fea made it sure our extravote would not go against Elron.

That scenario would then aptly explain her clear joy after the results came and her change of mind had actually prevented a double lynch (quite improbable at the time she changed her mind?):

Aaaaand double lynch successfully avoided. You're welcome.

If we'd have time, I'd sure wish to check her for possible cobblery. But it may be we can't afford it at this point of the game. And if she is the other remaining cobbler, then we have a problem here trying to efectively help the village if she can throw in a last minute vote while most of the active dead are from Europe and thus harldy able to stay up to the DL to try and counter that...

I'm sorry Fea if you're not a cobbler, but I hope you see why I have come to these suspicions.


On another note. I am a bit disappointed with how the lynching of Lottie in fact went. While reading it yesterday in a hurry it felt like there were things going on and that we might be able to read something from it - but it does look more confusing now...

Well, we still have time to read and think.

[Nogrod]

What do you think of Ang's performance there?

Originally Posted by Ang on #673

I lean towards advising Glorfindel to come out, really. We have so little other information.

Now as is, the identity of the ranger would be the second last piece the wolves are missing from their puzzle - and it woud grant them a secure & non-hunter Night kill giving them the victory if they just lynch someone right toDay.

But then again, if Mith is not the ranger (which I was kind of hoping for for a few reasons we might discuss later) as she hasn't claimed to be it, then a ranger-Ang could have been the one protecting her, and thus his suggestion might be a trap for the wolves or cobblers to come forwards promoting it?

Originally Posted by Ang #671

I distrust the phantom with extreme prejudice. I don't like his immediate if typical attempt to claim the Day's direction and steer it towards Elron, a vulnerable, easy-to-lynch candidate whom he knows many people (me for instance) vaguely suspect. As in WW I itself, our "two luminaries", phantom and Boro, the great statistical plotters, are at war. It is very unlikely that both are guilty. At the moment I would also say that neither are wolves, and that phantom is, after all, a Cobbler.

Which means we cannot dismiss that aboriginal question. Was Nogrod telling the truth?

Once again going both ways... Is this Ang the wolf signalling to tp that they are now confident about him (note the added comment on me being right initially when telling him to be the cobbler), and telling him to stay away from Elron? Maybe even telling him to stay away from Boro as well? He even goes to underline his pointing to tp in the end of the same post:

damnation, I seem genuinely only to suspect the phantom now. Consumed in obsession. And I don't even think he's a wolf, just a Cobbler.

Or is he just making the innocent's (ranger's?) fair POV that it might be I was right and that tp is the cobbler, and that he fairly thinks Elron is a "vaguely suspected easy lynch". (Then again it would be the wolfy-way of trying to save your mate.)

Also, after hearing about Legate having been a cobbler he ponders whether that puts an end to my believability.But still feel the need to post once more to state this:

there's probably still a cobbler around, even if I'm pretty sure his name is phantom

And that in a post where he also speculates whether we still have two or three wolves around, claiming not to understand the maths and thus being not too aware of the direness of the situation... (which a wlf would know exactly, that this is more or less the decisive Day - and getting the name of the ranger would be crucial...)

I can see Ang both ways but right now I'm more tempted to lean towards him being a crafty wolf. It's not a wide margin though and partly rests on my quite unfounded assumption that Elron could be a wolf, and that he's better in maths than that.

What do you think?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

if Glorfy's alive, looking at the desperate situation and need for some type of tangible roles...now is as good of a time as any for Glorfy to step out.

What I said...


*Yells to the game-thread: "Don't listen to them Glorfindel!!!"*

Yes, we'd need her/him here, but only if we have a game to go on in the first place. And now it will only pay for the wolves to know her/his identity.

The ranger can protect her/himself to be sure, but as the wolves know s/he was protecting Mith the Night before the chances are good s/he protected her/himself last Night. So s/he woud be killable the coming Night...


Please hunter, make yourself the target and hit it right!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

The most manipulative and mis-leading player this entire duration has been the phantom. Lynch him, even if he may only turn up cobbler.

See the plan now?

Lynch the phantom (not the hunter), out the ranger and kill her/him at Night (not the hunter) as s/he will probably not be able to self-protect... = Wolf Victory!

[Nogrod]

Heh, I'm trying not to get too carried away with my theory - and I admit it might be wrong at least on some of the concerned - but if Ang, Boro and Elron are the wolves (and Fea the second cobbler), I'm claiming some bragging rights for this.

Anyway, when I come back I try to see this from some other angle not to get stuck with what now looks like a good theory, well decent... at least plausible. Anyway the first wholesome theory that is backed by some real "evidence".

If someone has time s/he could check whether what I said would make sense looking at the votings and the possible leering behaviour around them / saving Elron.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay. I'm going to rock some suspension of disbelief (even though I'm not a cobbler).

Nog: what do YOU think we (the Dead) should be doing right now, and what do YOU think they (the Living) should do toDay?