Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 02-03-2011, 04:00 PM

Don't waste your vote on Nessa, she is an ordinary innocent.

Well sure you can do it. But I will then tell you "I told you so".

Shastanis Althreduin · 02-03-2011, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Don't waste your vote on Nessa, she is an ordinary innocent.

Well sure you can do it. But I will then tell you "I told you so".

Regardless of the ongoing debate of your seership, the living expect us to check Nessa, and that is how they will interpret our message toMorrow.

Nogrod · 02-03-2011, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Regardless of the ongoing debate of your seership, the living expect us to check Nessa, and that is how they will interpret our message toMorrow.

Okay. I'll dream of Lottie then. Don't change that.

I'm actually sending the dream right now. With good luck I could get the answer before I go to sleep.

Nogrod · 02-03-2011, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Regardless of the ongoing debate of your seership

I must say I haven't seen any debate lately...

But this gives me one more reason to beg you to reconsider once again.

I can't prove you I'm the seer, but grant me this: next time you speculate about possible alliances, possible tricks by wolves, possible wolf-organised lynchings, possible mate-savings etc. Spend a few minutes looking at them from the POV of what I say is true. That's all I can ask you for now.

Here's especially where Lottie's role comes to the fore: whichever one she is will shed some light into the voting of yesterDay down there. Also by supposing for a moment that I tell you the truth about Nessa being innocent, you could look at that lynching on D3 with fresh eyes; like looking at who leers the widest when two innocents face the gallows (and I do not mean so much Lottie here - or tp, the other initiator of the double-lynch, is the cobbler you remember; but those who were looking too confident there rather in the background).

Try it.

Oh, and...

-- Lottie
++ Nessa

(It feels pretty stupid to vote to find out a role of the person you know better this vote will ever give you guys, but anyway.)

Nogrod · 02-03-2011, 05:07 PM

Okay. I started to write on a few things but this first turned out to be such an alarming one I'll just post this first (and then check the clock).

I really disliked the way Boro and the phantom drove that "the dead will do this on our bidding" -thing (aided somewhat by Elron & a little by Glirdy). The wolves have had the upper hand so far in the thread and especially if Lottie is not a wolf they're having a very strong position now.

Thus they know that Mandos is populated by innocents only (if there is a cobbler or two here they don't know and we don't know).

Now where is the knowledge of the roles by innocents, where is the possible trust and reasonable co-operation? Here in Mandos populated by the good-guys. Where is the chaos and total upperhand of baddies especially coming to knowledge? There in the living thread.

So the baddies would love to tie our hands here to that more or less insignificant enterprise of sending them messages there. Remember, the wolves know both Lommy and Nessa are innocents. So with strictly following that rule of sending them messages, all the innocent villagers have gained when D6 dawns is that on D3 there were two innocents facing the gallows and everyone agreed to lynch them, baddies and innocents alike.

What a waste! And not especially helpful to the innocents.

We, on the contrary know that already (you'll know about Nessa when the Day begins). We have the knowledge and should start thinking how to best use our extra-votes.

Sounding panicky? Nope. But you should also be on top of the numbers right now.

Not counting for further ranger-saves and disregarding the hunter-kill (as it could go both ways) we have the following situation:

D5 starts with 7-3

If they manage to lynch one innocent more on D5...

D6 starts with 5-3... and they need only one more succesful lynch & Nightkill to win straight (and all we have managed to give the innocents that far is the result of D3's lynching where every innocent is basically as liable as the wolves & cobblers).

So if things go as they plan - which sadly seems more likely than not - they can overpower the village quite fast, in two Days. And reducing us to a message-senders the baddies make sure we don't try to get involved any other way in there during these critical two Days ahead. Thus letting them reign supreme there.

I thought it was bad some people called for stiff rules and sticking to the plan whatever the situation - but having thought it through now, it looks really evil.

Aganzir · 02-03-2011, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you finally realised that I was right all along, but you are just not going to admit it?

Not exactly. I have nothing against the people I trust (mainly Shasta and Fea) seeing to it that everything goes alright but a plan like that, especially coming from you, doesn't make me feel good. Too many things could go wrong there.

I'm sorry I'm not posting more but I'm really quite tired (I actually slept for 45 minutes during class). See you tomorrow, I should have more time then.

Loslote · 02-03-2011, 08:21 PM

++Nessa

Feanor of the Peredhil · 02-03-2011, 08:58 PM

--Lottie
++Nessa

I does as I's told...

Nogrod · 02-03-2011, 04:09 PM

I have just updated myself by reading what I have missed (1½ Days...).

I'll make some points about them the next thing, but just one thing about our choice of a vote. Looking at the discussion and the votes given there with the living I do think Lottie's role (wolf or not) could actually open some room for real speculation about different alignments.

I have also the added reason for it, that I know Nessa to be an ordo, but from that follows and important thing: the voting on D3 was terrible! There were two innocents on offer and basically no-one else. So the wolves really could have just leaned back and enjoyed themselves. Although that confidence sometimes shines through a wolf's posting and that should be looked for (I'll try to check it tomorrow).

02-03-2011, 04:00 PM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Don't waste your vote on Nessa, she is an ordinary innocent. Well sure you can do it. But I will then tell you "I told you so". __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

02-03-2011, 05:07 PM	#5
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Quadruple posting... seriously now, where are you? Okay. I started to write on a few things but this first turned out to be such an alarming one I'll just post this first (and then check the clock). I really disliked the way Boro and the phantom drove that "the dead will do this on our bidding" -thing (aided somewhat by Elron & a little by Glirdy). The wolves have had the upper hand so far in the thread and especially if Lottie is not a wolf they're having a very strong position now. Thus they know that Mandos is populated by innocents only (if there is a cobbler or two here they don't know and we don't know). Now where is the knowledge of the roles by innocents, where is the possible trust and reasonable co-operation? Here in Mandos populated by the good-guys. Where is the chaos and total upperhand of baddies especially coming to knowledge? There in the living thread. So the baddies would love to tie our hands here to that more or less insignificant enterprise of sending them messages there. Remember, the wolves know both Lommy and Nessa are innocents. So with strictly following that rule of sending them messages, all the innocent villagers have gained when D6 dawns is that on D3 there were two innocents facing the gallows and everyone agreed to lynch them, baddies and innocents alike. What a waste! And not especially helpful to the innocents. We, on the contrary know that already (you'll know about Nessa when the Day begins). We have the knowledge and should start thinking how to best use our extra-votes. Sounding panicky? Nope. But you should also be on top of the numbers right now. Not counting for further ranger-saves and disregarding the hunter-kill (as it could go both ways) we have the following situation: D5 starts with 7-3 If they manage to lynch one innocent more on D5... D6 starts with 5-3... and they need only one more succesful lynch & Nightkill to win straight (and all we have managed to give the innocents that far is the result of D3's lynching where every innocent is basically as liable as the wolves & cobblers). So if things go as they plan - which sadly seems more likely than not - they can overpower the village quite fast, in two Days. And reducing us to a message-senders the baddies make sure we don't try to get involved any other way in there during these critical two Days ahead. Thus letting them reign supreme there. I thought it was bad some people called for stiff rules and sticking to the plan whatever the situation - but having thought it through now, it looks really evil. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 02-03-2011 at 05:15 PM. Reason: Typo: "ciable" to liable...

02-03-2011, 08:21 PM	#7
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	++Nessa __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

02-03-2011, 08:58 PM	#8
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	--Lottie ++Nessa I does as I's told... __________________ peace

02-03-2011, 04:09 PM	#9
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I have just updated myself by reading what I have missed (1½ Days...). I'll make some points about them the next thing, but just one thing about our choice of a vote. Looking at the discussion and the votes given there with the living I do think Lottie's role (wolf or not) could actually open some room for real speculation about different alignments. I have also the added reason for it, that I know Nessa to be an ordo, but from that follows and important thing: the voting on D3 was terrible! There were two innocents on offer and basically no-one else. So the wolves really could have just leaned back and enjoyed themselves. Although that confidence sometimes shines through a wolf's posting and that should be looked for (I'll try to check it tomorrow). __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...