WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

---

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yeah, so Pitchcobbler seems to have been hinting at/about Boro. *shrug* Not sure if there is anything useful in that, or whether I'm even reading too much into it, but it does seem to me that a look at Pitch's behavior might be useful, since the wolves likely knew who he was and he may have had some clues as to their identities as well.

Yeah I noticed that too (although not until you pointed it out). However you need to keep in mind that us non-native speakers have a more limited vocabulary (thus we repeat words more often than the rest of you) so I wouldn't read too much into it. Boro & Pitch couldn't have identified each other for sure on day 1, but their connection is interesting.

I don't necessarily trust Cailin, but I'm prepared to believe her conclusions on Shasta's dreams. No wolf dream explains why he didn't reveal

What's your take on Mänwe then?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your take on Mänwe then?

The bit about "first person to enter my "red" category" is fairly incriminating. The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.

[Macalaure]

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

That post was more to make up my own mind to see what our options are from here. Maybe it wasn't worded/formatted well. For right now, Rikae, and you, too, are close enough to innocent to me to count with, especially since I thought you two were innocent before. Obviously, I didn't put myself into the list of remaining people either.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Suspected Pitch (in an approximate yet more or less arbitrary order from the most to the least suspicious - I haven't listed the dead or myself because this was originally a note intended just for me): Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa; Mac, wilwa, Green
Found Pitch innocent: Boro; wilwa, Nessa, Legate
Pitch found innocent: Boro, skip; Rikae

DAY 2
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa
Found Pitch innocent: Boro, skip, Cailín
Pitch found innocent: -

DAY 3
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Rikae, Cailín
Pitch suspected: No one (but Inzil, it seems)
Found Pitch innocent day 3: skip
Pitch found innocent: No one (but Shasta)

DAY 4
Suspected Pitch: Mac; wilwa, Rikae, skip; Green, Legate
Pitch suspected: flip-flopped on Legate
Found Pitch innocent: No one except Legate & Greenie did some flip-flopping
Pitch found innocent: Boro, Cailín, skip (whom he voted), semi-defended also Nessa

Originally Posted by Pitch on Nessa

chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.

I failed to see anything that would've suggested Pitch knew for sure Nessa is innocent, but the way he went after her makes me think better of her.

Ed constantly suspected Pitch while Mänwe attacked her - I believe this is the reason she was killed.

It's rather late now so I won't try to reach any conclusions about Pitch's interactions now but will do so tomorrow if I deem it worth the effort. I thought I'd still post these though.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.

It does. The wolves were in pains to catch the seer last night because if they hadn't, they would've been considerably worse off today. In hindsight Shasta's comment about really not wanting to vote for Legate was probably a giveaway, but a seer simply wouldn't be so sloppy this late in the game as to explicitly put an unknown into his red category.

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I would venture it a possibility that he'd draw attention away from himself to a quiet and considered by most "submarine" prisoner, to ensure his survival for another night of dreaming.

Someone suspected as heavily as Shasta was yesterday doesn't need to do so. Good try but I think I know who I'm voting for today.

Speaking of which, I might as well do it now because I don't think anything will happen that makes me change my mind. It would be an offense to Shasta to leave Mänwe alive after how he talked of him yesterday.

++MÄNWE

I still have my retraction if something drastic happens, though. I find it the most likely the wolves have agreed to sacrifice Mänwe, but it probably went more along these lines: "Okay buddy we might have to kill you but let's try our best and hold our votes and see if a couple of innocents vote wrong so we can jump on it and we win!"

Originally Posted by skip spence

Day 2:
Highly inconclusive. Possibly an innocent Agan, Kit, Lommy,Rikae, Eomer, Mac or Cailin

I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I find it the most likely the wolves have agreed to sacrifice Mänwe, but it probably went more along these lines: "Okay buddy we might have to kill you but let's try our best and hold our votes and see if a couple of innocents vote wrong so we can jump on it and we win!"

Hear, hear.

Basically yes. I think Mänwe is the best bet for toDay. But hey, I want to see people posting first, for now I am going to sleep. So looking forward to see people commenting here.

[wilwarin538]

Can make a quick post tonight, and then probably not til a couple hours before DL. I've had the worst luck this game for having time to participate.

The analyses of Shasta's dream-possibilities make a lot of sense. It's also possible that some of his earlier dreams were for people who are now dead, which could be why his first 2 dreams seem harder to figure out. But I have to agree that Legate looks quite good, and Manwe looks quite bad.

I was really surprised Pitch ended up being the Cobbler, because it seemed clear Boro was. But I don't think that makes Boro a wolf, yesterDay I said how the way Boro has been acting is more like a busy Ordo or a Cobbler, I don't think he'd behave this way as a wolf.

I wish I had more time, but I'm afraid I don't. I'll come back on tomorrow.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part. Well, at least it limits people's choices (they won't vote me), but they can also know that my points are not intentionally biased. I simply hope that they won't be too biased in any other way, I can promise you to do my best to avoid that...

Anyway, for now:

Shasta

First Day:

"Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan"
"I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post."
Okay, this looks sort of as if he had dreamed of Mac, but the fact that he much later dropped him suggests to me that he was not his dream. Of course, Shasta could have been bluffing and such, but not sure if he would do it that way. Agan he calls a Cobbler later on, but still keeps her mostly "green". I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams). Also, let's note that possibly not all players have been around by the time he made the post. But on the other hand, he does not really mention anybody else after that, so...

If I were to guess, I would say he might have dreamed of Agan (not Mac because of the later Days). Whereas from later Days it would seem rather sensible to say he dreamed of Rikae, his comment about her on Day 1 is rather nothing-saying. Except that she is the first name mentioned ever. (I wanted to check if there is not a pattern like that by any chance, but seemingly isn't, since he starts Day 2 with me, whom he clears the day after).

Second Day:
Lots of mess and I am not sure. I wonder if he might have dreamed of either of the dead then (the question would be why, neither seems like a likely pick for him, I think). Anyway, he did not at least seem to have dreamed of a Wolf, and so if we look at people he found innocent:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy

So maybe some Rikae now, or even Lommy (who died later) etc.?

Third Day: Backpedals on me, and given how he suspected me before, yes, it is clearer than day that he had dreamed of me there. He had not posted anything much elaborate during the whole Day as he seemingly was posting just from his phone.

Fourth Day: Suddenly starts to think more of Mänwe, so I really wonder if it was that he dreamed of him. The sort of hyperactivity might go hand in hand with "hooray! After several Nights I have at last managed to get a Wolf, brilliant!" But, well... it is not 100%. He at least prefers him to other lynches, in any case, and seems more convinced about him (if you can use that word) than about anybody else.

He posted two lists, I am putting here even the first one, a sort of "intro" list of what he's going to do in the Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

I actually call attention to this list, because here he says something about "I will look at..." or something about "just radar" about basically everybody except for me, Rikae, Aganzir, Manwe and Nessa. So that makes me think I might be right in my previous assumption.

Here is the other list of the Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None

He put me, Aganzir and Rikae in the same slot on his last Day's list. I really wonder if all his dreams have survived until now, somehow, it seems a bit improbable. On the other hand, not impossible, and especially with the above, it looks logical.

So yes, that's it, here I would conclude. The thing about calling Agan a cobbler seems more like a backpedaling bluff, it is not really so significant. So I would really think that his dreams were: 1-innocent Agan, 2-innocent Rikae, 3-innocent me, 4-guilty Mänwe (probably). He is still rather uncertain, or switching sides about Nessa to make me think he dreamed of her at any point.

This is probably enough for me now. I should wake up in 7 hours, so better go now. I'll just quickly check if somebody crossposted with me...

And btw: Mänwe's post does not look good to me, not at all, precious. I think an innocent would behave differently if suspected in this way.

(and p.s. sorry for the length, it's the quotes And I know it's like for the sixth time you see the quotes of Shasta toDay, but I think it's very good if everybody goes through it by themselves... or at least I want to, anyway, and also feel it a bit of my responsibility anyway)

EDIT: x-ed with one Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part.

Exactly. Pull yourself together or I'll give you Sharkey!

I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams).

I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.

But, well... it is not 100%.

I think it's about as clear as a seer can go without coming out.

Anyways I'm going to sleep.

[Macalaure]

Let's talk about something else.

YesterDay's voting:

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

Unfortunately, the two most interesting persons (imo, Cailín (no vote), Skip (vote in self defense)) left no trail. Shame...

[Macalaure]

And let's get this over with:

++Mänwe

No wolves are going to make the mistake of defending him now anymore anyway, and with a retraction, why wait.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.

It matters for us, of course, because unlike you, we don't know if you are innocent. But yea, whatever.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf. The Cobbler is sending them clues, but if e.g. neither Pitch nor Boro's name appeared among the names sent to them, and they had suspected Boro might be Cobbler as well as we did, then who knows... I say you jump too quickly to conclusions.

I think it is more interesting that so many people have labeled Boro as Cobbler, because then the question is, what would the Wolves do in such a case, in relation to what do they think and what Boro really is. I think it might be worth it who thought he was the Cobbler, who opposed it somewhat, and so on. And to try to discern the motives behind it. E.g. if they knew Pitch was their Cobbler and Boro is innocent, then they had no problem with saying he is one. If Boro is one of them, then it would probably make sense for them to try to make him look like a Cobbler (that way sort of downplaying him), or perhaps for some to even try to defend him (but that's far less likely as it's dangerous). If they also thought Boro was the Cobbler, they might have wanted to just as well get rid of him.

I guess I will go a bit through the Boro-situation yesterDay.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

I obviously agree about Legate. I'm unsure about Rikae, and I'm pretty sure he didn't dream of you. It would be odd to keep calling a dreamed innocent a probable cobbler. I agree though that lynching Mänwe is our best bet toDay.

Originally Posted by Mac

The Green-Yellow-Red list in #460 is clearer:
Legate, Aganzir, Rikae dreamt of and innocent.

I'm not sure if I'd give as much weight to this as you do, given that Shasta said the list was about who he doesn't want to vote, and Agan was there because he thought she was probably the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.

Cailín! First it was Valier talking cute about the little Maia and thus making it impossible to suspect her, now you're doing the same by talking about wedding cakes!

Originally Posted by Legate

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

Yes, Boro is an interesting one. I can see no reason for a Borordo to post the way he did late yesterDay. Considering that he's still alive makes me seriously suspicious of him. As for Pitch, the funny part is that I found some comment of his cobblerish yesterDay, but later on forgot about it myself! Which is exceedingly embarrassing.

Originally Posted by Agan

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though.

I'm still not sure of Nessa. Obviously Pitch thought she was an ordo, but then most of us did put her and Inzil in the same category at that time.

Originally Posted by Mac

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

As others have pointed out, this logic doesn't quite hold water.

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.

I pretty much agree with this.

Originally Posted by Mac

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

So basically a lot depends on Skip's role, doesn't it? If Skip is evil, Agan and Mac look bad. I'm still rather suspicious of Skip, but like Mac said the fact Pitch voted for him makes him look better, or else Pitch was mistaken. I'm not sure about Mac's thoughts on Wilwa and Nessa.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate