WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Rikae]

Skip, I can only assume that you're saying I couldn't have spotted any seer hint the wolves would have missed, since I'm not nearly as clever as they are. Well, if you say so. I can only assume you know what you're talking about...

[Rikae]

Someone said we should mention who we planned to vote. That is a good idea, as it helps the wolves to shift the lynch in the direction they prefer.

I'm prepared to vote for Skip, or possibly Boro again. Maybe Legate. What say you all?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Someone said we should mention who we planned to vote. That is a good idea, as it helps the wolves to shift the lynch in the direction they prefer.

I'm prepared to vote for Skip, or possibly Boro again. Maybe Legate. What say you all?

Brilliant, we should totally do this.

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Voting? Right now, I would prefer... well, I would not really put Boro as my first pick for a vote, as I think he is "just" a Cobbler, and not Mänwe, nor skip. Pitch, as he posted now, actually makes me feel a bit better about him. That limits my choices rather drastically, though. As Eomer wrote on the admin thread that Cailín is not around, I would perhaps not vote for her in her absence, that leaves me with Elron Hubbard or Shasta. The posts he has made now are moving him more to the suspicious side of my scale, with some of the vocabulary which even he pointed out as wishy-washy (I'm not putting him past saying that himself as a sort of double-bluff) and also with the possibility that he seeks a new target in Mänwe (whom I now think more likely innocent).

But still, lot to think about...

EDIT: x-ed with Skip

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Brilliant, we should totally do this.

Agreed. Give me a bit though, I'm still too confused.

Mac maybe, though I'd like to go back and read some of his earlier stuff before I commit to that. Let's not be hasty! In fact I've a bad feeling the wws are rubbing their hands with glee as we tear away at each other.

Will be back in a bit.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Mac

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning

You call that "a little skirmishing", when I've been your constant top suspect (whom you, for some strange reason, never voted) for three Days, together with Boro, whom you only started to suspect because he defended me too much? And I'm beginning to look better all of a sudden exactly why?

That aside, I have to agree that we should all rethink our suspicions/look at people we've hitherto neglected. I've felt pretty good about Boro and skip for quite a while, and kind of undecided/leaning positive about Legate; some of this is based on early impressions I haven't really reexamined, so I should have a fresh look at them, but it would need some pretty blatant signs of wolvery for me to vote any of them in good conscience.

EDIT: x-ed from #503.

[Rikae]

Hmmm.

I am reconsidering my suspects at the moment anyway, Wilwa,but for myself, I was thinking of voting one of those people, barring new information, and I was also (even more so) interested in what others would think of those choices.

Ah well, anyway... back to the drawing board.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Once again a note about Mänwe, seeing what he posted now... and Shasta, if you are innocent, I would suggest you try to think about it too... he sounds to me not like a Wolf, but like a truly honestly speaking innocent, being honest to the point of it doing harm to him. I mean, if it is a honest need to explain himself, I can very well imagine it. No, I am definitely not voting him toDay.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Skip, I can only assume that you're saying I couldn't have spotted any seer hint the wolves would have missed, since I'm not nearly as clever as they are. Well, if you say so. I can only assume you know what you're talking about...

Okay, to clarify: I was referring to that earlier post toDay that appeared to be addressed to the seer (though I didn't rightly understand it) and to some earlier mysterious posts (though I don't remember exactly when and where they can be found now). And no, my point wasn't to imply that you couldn't possibly pick up on any seer-hints, my point was that these tricksy, mysterious posts - like I said I seem to remember a few - are innocent-looking, but that I've just started to fear that this is only for show. I'm by no means sure, and at present I'm not really considering voting you.

This was the criticism of Legate I was referring to:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Legate, you should know better than to ask why an innocent would be so mysterious, and the fact that you ask makes me more distrustful of you.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Okay, to clarify: I was referring to that earlier post toDay that appeared to be addressed to the seer (though I didn't rightly understand it) and to some earlier mysterious posts (though I don't remember exactly when and where they can be found now). And no, my point wasn't to imply that you couldn't possibly pick up on any seer-hints, my point was that these tricksy, mysterious posts - like I said I seem to remember a few - are innocent-looking, but that I've just started to fear that this is only for show. I'm by no means sure, and at present I'm not really considering voting you.

This was the criticism of Legate I was referring to:

No, this doesn't really make sense in light of your original comment. I wasn't admonishing Legate for drawing attention to anything I said, but for seeking further explanation and suggesting I was not on the village's side if I didn't give it... or at least that's how I interpreted:

Originally Posted by Legate

because if you are on the village's side, I cannot see why you don't speak plainer

[A Little Green]

Someone (was it Legate?) said that Pitch looks better after his first post toDay. I disagree. I haven't been suspecting Pitch almost at all, but that post makes me wonder if I should.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Ouch. That lynch yesterDay was ein Griff ins Klo, as we say in German (roughly 'grabbed from the loo', in the sense that you get a handful of - well, you know what). Poor Zil, that was a nasty set-up by the wolves.

So far, I'm afraid we've made the wolves' job pretty easy, and our numbers are dwindling rapidly. Our big assets are that our two remaining gifteds are still alive, so there's still hope.

The tone of this doesn't strike me as genuine at all.

Originally Posted by Pitch

As to Rikae's mysterious #467 and the speculations about it - I think I see what she's driving at (or let's say I have a hypothesis), and if I'm right, I'd much rather nobody had mentioned it, least of all said "It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf" (skip! Really?).

And this, in the end of the same post, pinged all the radars I have. "I don't want attention drawn to this topic, but here I am talking about it!" does not strike me as sound logic - actually a lot like a cobbler doing his best to make the wolves spot something he did.


EDIT: x.ed with Wilwa, Skip and Rikae

[A Little Green]

I might consider voting Skip, Pitch or Cailín - probably not Cailín toDay though if she's not around. I could be persuaded to try Mac, Rikae or Shasta, but not before I've taken a better look at them.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Greenie

And this, in the end of the same post, pinged all the radars I have. "I don't want attention drawn to this topic, but here I am talking about it!" does not strike me as sound logic - actually a lot like a cobbler doing his best to make the wolves spot something he did.

I'd say there had already been enough talked about it by Legate and Shasta, so it was a little late to gloss it over completely.
And if you want me to (and Rikae says it's OK), I can of course spell out what I think she meant (in which I may of course be completely mistaken), but I don't see how that would benefit anyone but the wolves. Anyway I can assure you it had nothing to do with me pointing out anything to anybody, least of all the wolves.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'd say there had already been enough talked about it by Legate and Shasta, so it was a little late to gloss it over completely.
And if you want me to (and Rikae says it's OK), I can of course spell out what I think she meant (in which I may of course be completely mistaken), but I don't see how that would benefit anyone but the wolves. Anyway I can assure you it had nothing to do with me pointing out anything to anybody, least of all the wolves.

I'm not sure I get everything you're saying here, I'm not at all into hints and ploys and such in any case. No, you don't need to tell me what you thought it was about.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'd say there had already been enough talked about it by Legate and Shasta, so it was a little late to gloss it over completely.
And if you want me to (and Rikae says it's OK), I can of course spell out what I think she meant (in which I may of course be completely mistaken), but I don't see how that would benefit anyone but the wolves. Anyway I can assure you it had nothing to do with me pointing out anything to anybody, least of all the wolves.

I don't believe I mentioned it at all, actually, but nice job at subtle suspicion-hopping.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't believe I mentioned it at all, actually, but nice job at subtle suspicion-hopping.

Duh, of course you didn't, I meant skip. No idea why you crossed my mind at that moment. Maybe I was reading one of your analyses with the other eye.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Ski

That's hardly the point. You accuse the people who went with the Inzil/Nessa trail, regardless of who they accuse (gives them negative points) and credit those who stayed away from it, that's the point.

Since Inzil was innocent, I think I can do that! And even without knowing Nessa's role for certain, I find it very suspicious how a lot of people treated them as if they were one person.

I didn't give any points to people who just stayed away (in fact, that's a flaw in the system), but gave positive points who "publicly renounced" it.

Originally Posted by Skip

Once again: The usual suspects Nessa and Inzil did look very likely to get lynched from early on (as far I can remember anyway),

True, but a significant deal of suspicious behaviour occurred after my vote.

Originally Posted by Skip

But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.

That's what you do if you don't have a bias. You should try it sometime.


I noticed that you're accusing me plentifully, but haven't commented on even one item I had against you in the analysis. I will gladly spell it out again if you'd like.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Speaking of Zil, sadly there's not as much to learn from knowing his role as I hoped there would, now I think it over with a clearer mind. OK, we know that the vote that saved Nessa on Day 2 wasn't made by a packmate, but we still don't know whether he was swayed by an innocent or evil Nessa.

This sounds like a cop-out to me.

Originally Posted by Pitch

You call that "a little skirmishing"

In the sense that you didn't suspect me back very much.

Originally Posted by Pitch

together with Boro, whom you only started to suspect because he defended me too much?

That was only one of the reasons.

Originally Posted by Pitch

And I'm beginning to look better all of a sudden exactly why?

Because you didn't turn out as evil based on my analysis than I thought you would. Don't you consider yourself off the hook.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I didn't give any points to people who just stayed away (in fact, that's a flaw in the system), but gave positive points who "publicly renounced" it.

Publicly renouncing a bandwagon against two innocents (if that's what they were) is plenty wolfy.

[Rikae]

And I say that in spite of having done it myself, actually.

[wilwarin538]

I hate to do this, but a girl from work who tends to call in sick at the worst times (and who thankfully won't be working for us much longer) has called in sick again, and I have to go to work. Right now.

So I need to vote, and it'll be a bit random, and I'm dreadfully sorry:

++elronds_daughter

Good luck today!

[skip spence]

A Little Green:

Day 1:
Greenie start out with a little bickering with Agan, suggests she might be a cobbler or worse.

She thinks Pitch looks like he always does (he was suspected at this time), that Nessa's defence of him was odd, and goes back-and-forth about Rikae for withdrawing her suspicion on Pitchie.

No vote

Day 2:
Explains her no-vote: she had computer-problems. She goes on to bicker some more with Agan (harmless stuff really), shares a moment with Shasta, excuses herself for low participation and makes a list. Her only real suspect is Inzil.

Inziladun - Leaning bad - he's always driving me nuts because I can't read him at all, but though Lommy's point is almost too easy it makes sense. Three minutes is an awfully short time to read who died and figure all that out.

Then she is helpful in summing up the votes that far and votes Inzil without any further explanation.

Day 3:
Quoting this in it's entirety:

Inzil looks bad. I don't know if the wolves would really take so much pains to frame a single innocent. To state the obvious, he is either

a) a misguided innocent who honestly made a mistake at the end of yesterDay. Possible, I suppose. However, the timing of his vote is as last minute as can be, it looks calculated. The resigned attitude toDay doesn't look innocent to me, either. We need to catch a wolf, and if he is innocent he should speak out for himself so we don't make the wrong choice.

b) a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered. It would have been a pretty extreme move for a wolf though, since in saving one wolf he would have two of them highly suspected the next Day. Is the two kills per Night advantage that important to them? Or do we have an insanely bold pack who decided to sacrifice half of them to cause havoc and let the other half slip by unnoticed? No, it wouldn't make sense unless Inzil believed himself already seer-dreamed, but the Night's kills speak against that - neither Valier nor Lommy seemed like Seers who had dreamed Inzilwolf. Or was he just otherwise certain he and Nessa were going to be suspected the next Day anyway?

c) a cobbler. This is actually beginning to look like the most sensible option to me. A cobbler would be ready to make a drastic move to save a believed wolf from the gallows - or even, come to think of it, an innocent, thus misleading the village royally. His "kill me if you like, but you're wasting your time" -attitude looks quite cobblerish, too. If I have the time I might go through Inzil's early posts to see if there is anything resembling a cobbler hint. His previous behaviour struck me more wolvish than cobblerish though.

Gah. Enough about Inzil, there are sixteen other people to look at. Well, fifteen. For example, I haven't seen any talk at all about the Lottie-wagon. What, exactly, were the arguments for lynching her?

I'm not fond of Legate's tone here. The first paragraph is pessimistic, which is doubtlessly how the wolves want us to feel. The second is the classic wishy-washy Legate, he pretty much says that everyone could be a wolf actually, without being definite about anyone. And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!

Greenie then goes on to criticize Legate (agreeing with Cailin who made the same point) for his friends-don't-kill-friends argument. Legate has been going on about how the wolves probably aren't Agan or Greenie, because they wouldn't have Night-killed Ozban or Kath who are their friends and who haven't played for a while. I agree with Greenie and Cailin that this is a dodgy point especially since it also seems to conveniently clear himself. And I don't think RL-considerations would stop Agan or Greenie (or Legate for that matter), were they wolves and deemed it the best alternative. I should hope not anyway. It's even possible someone (Legate?) is trying to hide behind it.

Then she makes another list (after criticizing Legate again for his assumptions regarding the kills). Her suspects:

NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
Nessa - I'm not comfortable with her track record. Her role could tell us a lot about others. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.
Inziladun - Agh. I think I've ranted enough about him already. Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.
Skip - If he's a wolf, he's a daring one. But he has done bold moves before, and Valier's death does point at him.
Legate - Makes me uneasy. He's fishy on top of his normal wishy-washy.

She later softens her stance on Legate, says he makes more sense now.

Goes on to vote for Inzil without further explanation after another little episode with Agan.

Comments:
In the light of Inzil's innocence Greenie's two votes for him looks bad, and her reasons aren't that good either. However, Innocents have voted Inzil obviously, and without a wolf down it is really hard to find a solid reason against anyone bar a bad slip. I find her bickering with Agan somewhat disturbing. Could they perhaps be fellows, making an early scene when then accuse each other. Plausible certainly, but then again, they are of course good real-life friends who enjoy each other's company and that is maybe a more probable explanation for the exchanges.

Has been very careful not to put herself in the spotlight which often is a bad sign. Then again, she says she has little time.

Seems more active toDay though and looks sharp. Gawd, this is also going to sound wishy-washy, but I really have no clue. If she is a wolf, her poker-face is commendable. But no, I don't think I'll be voting Greenie (though I would to save myself).

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Skip

Has been very careful not to put herself in the spotlight which often is a bad sign. Then again, she says she has little time.

Seems more active toDay though and looks sharp. Gawd, this is also going to sound wishy-washy, but I really have no clue. If she is a wolf, her poker-face is commendable. But no, I don't think I'll be voting Greenie (though I would to save myself).

Yes, I had time issues especially during the weekend, today I've finally got the chance to participate as much as I like to.

I'm not sure about that last sentence there, or mainly the addition in brackets. It's a weird thing to say - I would think it's pretty much obvious you are willing to vote me (or basically anyone) to save yourself, I'm not sure why you felt the need to mention it. Especially in context of the analysis of someone who doesn't look like a very likely lynch candidate at the moment.


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch

[Macalaure]

(no quote tags, to save space)

If Nessa and Inzil are fellows this would be a very bold move. Yet it makes sense I guess. ~ Skip

That would be a nightmare, so have we reached the stage where Pitch, Nessa, and Inzil are just huge question marks we have to find them out or they will forever haunt us? ~ Boro

Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa. ~ Shasta

The enigmatic pair: Inzil, Nessa ~ Agan

Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow ~ Shasta

I agree that Inzil and Nessa will continue to be a distraction and I am unhappy to see they have the focus of so much debate toDay. It might be best, as Boromir88, Shasta and others have said, to get them out of the way. ~ Cailín

I think Inzil and/or Nessa would clear up the weight hanging over the council so far and clear things up for my own head. ~ Boro


This bad reasoning in unison is really getting me. The fact that our presumed cobbler is joining into it prominently should make that clear if nothing else does.

[Rikae]

That ain't wolfin'.

That's the way you do it
get your lynches for nothing, double kills for free.

No, that ain't wolfin'
That's the way you do it!
Lemme tell ya, this pack ain't dumb
maybe come under a little vague suspicion
maybe throw a cobbler under the bus.

We got to analyze wolfy ordos
look suspicious with trickereeeey
we've got to choose 'tween
under the raders
we got to read these submariiiiiines.

I should'a got a PM from the mod
I should'a learned to make them shoes
look at these baddies, decimating villagers, man
wish I could be one.

I want my...
I want my...
I want my victory.
No that ain't wolfin'...

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, there seems to be quite a bit of analysis going on toDay, eh? I'll have to vote now, though, as I'll probably not be able to at DL. And even though I haven't heard everything that will come about, I have heard enough to make my decision.

++Legate

Because what he says sounds disturbingly wolvish, if you look at it from that perspective.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This bad reasoning in unison is really getting me. The fact that our presumed cobbler is joining into it prominently should make that clear if nothing else does.

A side remark - this is nothing about agreeing or disagreeing with conclusions you make, but what makes you think that the Cobbler would anyway know any better than the rest of us innocents whether he should or should not suspect Nessa and Inzil? How should he know that he can safely accuse Inzil, if such a huge part of the village (unless they all were wolves, but that is even numerically impossible), didn't know it?

EDIT: x-ed with skip, Rikae and Nessa. "From that perspective" - from what perspective? If you think I am sounding Wolvish then of course I do, what's that supposed to mean? If you are innocent, I would ask you to try to gather some reason...

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nessa

Because what he says sounds disturbingly wolvish, if you look at it from that perspective.

The problem with that reasoning is that everything is disturbingly wolvish if you read it with the assumption that it is.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

While I don't necessarily agree with lynching Nessa today, her one post so far today, in which she votes, doesn't make me very comfortable at all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And Rikae, what is this Mark Wolfler Revival supposed to mean, or do you have too much of your frustration already? Or have I been right when I was thinking that your secret and mysterious hints were actually meant for the Wolves?

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Shasta

[Pitchwife]

Just something I noticed during a quick reread:

Originally Posted by Legate

I must say, in one way I really really dislike the fact that Nessa was almost lynched for like, what, three consecutive days. On the other hand, perhaps if she is a Wolf, she deserves the title of the "survivalist" and a credit for that.

So you "really really dislike" the fact that you gave her the last vote on two of these Days? Which do you dislike, the votes or the fact that she only was almost lynched? Please clarify.
And if Nessa's a wolf, she's not a survivalist, she has a deathwish. Three Nightkills pointing to her, and hardly an attempt to defend or save herself? Come on.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And if Nessa's a wolf, she's not a survivalist, she has a deathwish. Three Nightkills pointing to her, and hardly an attempt to defend or save herself? Come on.

Pitch you're hilarious (but that's true).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

So you "really really dislike" the fact that you gave her the last vote on two of these Days? Which do you dislike, the votes or the fact that she only was almost lynched? Please clarify.

I dislike the fact that she managed to "save herself" (well, not herself, but simply, escaped her fate) for three Days. And by "dislike" I mean like "that happens only in movies!" (And speaking of that, my voting for her was by elimination method from those who were already running for the lynch.)
And yes, she is a survivalist - we have made her so.
Anyway, for me she is not the issue right now anymore.