WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I've seen this sentiment elsewhere and I don't like it. Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game. If his ww behaviour was that predictable I wouldn't fear him at all. But I do. Nothing very worrying about Inzil at present though.

I don't fear him precisely because of that, though. But for some reason you people never listen to me.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Exactly, that made me raise my eyebrows too. Besides, Zil said that mere three minutes after Nog's post. So either he has excellent memory and quick brains, he's a super fast checker (and thinker) or he actually knew the kill before the DL. Very fishy, I think.

This is a good point, but there's another possibility. We all take notice when it concerns ourselves. Kath voted Zil, right? Well, he'd remember that, and take notice when she turned up dead. Same thing with Ozzie. We all have slightly selective memories. Just another option.

Since Kit doesn't seem to think she'll be back, and we don't know if that'll be game-wise or Day-wise, I would suggest lynching her now. It's way early, yes, and there's pretty bad odds, but I, at least, don't have any better ideas for who to vote.

I'll be around for a little bit, but I'll have to vote waaaay before DL, since I'll be away until an hour after DL.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Mac

Unlikely. For the wolves, there were plenty of easy options available. (Easier, in fact, since late bandwaggons always get extra scrutiny.) It’s unlikely all bandwaggons other than Sally were wolves-to-be-lynched.
__________________

Pardon, but I don't believe that's what I said. What I was saying was 'the Sallywagon sprang up very late in the day - it wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf in the running at the time'. I didn't say 'every person in the running before Sally is a wolf'.

I'll be back with a list.

[Boromir88]

I'm going on a dream leave of absense Agan. Sorry, apparently my talents are not appreciated and I should be on to more werewolf killing.

I don't like the look of Skip's "I'm the hunter, oh nope...kidding. It's a joke." I was in the game he's talking about, was the cobbler, and final day before wolves win. I thought for sure he was a wolf, because once wilwa revealed as the hunter, I couldn't imagine a scenario where an innocent would do that. I think it was more of a desperate act to try to prove his innocence, since he was almost lynched the day before, and if a wolf wasn't lynched it was game over. This one looks like a flippant act that just led to brief unnecessary confusion.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy.

Feel ??? about -

ElRonHubbard - What I've seen looks decent, but there's not a lot of it. Need more.
Valier - Lots of froth and bubble - seems opinionated, but has yet to take any real stances on anyone that I can see.
Skip - Need to see more. The only thing that comes to mind when I try to recall Skip is his recent Hunter-joke, and being unmemorable is always a bad sign.
Greenie - ???
Blind Guardian - I don't really like BG's playstyle of "oh crap I'm busy let me vote real fast", but then, I never have. It's not really indicative of alignment.
Manwe - His one post looked good, but I need more than one post to go off of.

Feel slightly bad about -

Boro - Appeared to distance himself from Pitch after Mac's post.
Pitch - Groupthink and vibe, I'm sorry to say. I need to look at Pitch more in-depth - until I do, while I do feel slightly bad about him, he's in no danger of my vote.
Nessa - While I don't think she looks fur-and-fangs evil, there are some points against her, like the possible reason for the Ozban kill.
Wilwa - Her earlier post regarding her vote jumped out at me as being 'desperately calm', and yes, I know that's an oxymoron, but it just read to me as someone who expected to be asked about her vote and went 'oh crap', so prepared in advance.

Feel moderately bad about -

Lottie - What I didn't like about her Day 1 hasn't changed - she apparently still doesn't have any real suspicions, which isn't like her at all.
Inzil - Something about the way he's acted toDay just screams 'double-bluffing wolf'.

Feel no-nonsense bad about -

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

[Rikae]

PeeWee.

First post - 7 - Some nice IC.
9 - replying to Legate. Seems to be a bit too much attention to it; this is a subtle thing, and he's still half IC,
but I began to got a talking-just-to-talk feel from him here which is always a red flag to me.
15 - More bantery, stating-the-obvious-y talking in order to show he's present, as far as I'm concerned. Discussing
the cobbler with Agan. This whole "cobbler and wolves know something" business strikes me as odd... the only way
that knowledge is likely to come out is in wolf-on-wolf or wolf-cobbler sacrifice, something pretty unlikely early
in the game. It's the kind of point that seems to make sense, and offers opportunities for suspicion pretty much
anywhere, but doesn't actually hold much water. Pitch's response to Agan seems to be a reasonable one, for the most
part:

Well, the wolves obviously know more than we do, but the cobbler not so much, as of now - so xe will indeed probably want to make xyrself known to the pack in time.
On the other hand, I see our Mod has seen fit to grant the cobbler a means to send secret messages to the wolves, so I don't know how much 'open' hinting we're going
to see on the thread. Still worth keeping an eye open, to be sure...

Could be as easily an innocent finding the holes in Agan's point, or a wolf hoping the cobbler will act
sensibly.

Pitch then argues with Agan about the seer revealing. Again, makes sense, seems a bit too easy. If Agan is talking
nonsense, why not suspect her for it? It's all very calm and balanced. I admit, I have a prejudice against calm,
balanced posting. It is most in the wolves' interests not to create waves and the consequent backlash. The 'sucks
for us' bit especially disturbs me, as it seems most innocents probably wouldn't even think of adding the 'for us'
bit unless they were unusually self-conscious.
Some very general what-wolves-might-do talk with Boro. Again, safe.

18 - Cailin approves of Pitch's politeness. I'm not sure why she mentioned it in the first place. Something is odd about
this, somehow - as though she is mentioning him just to mention him? A very vague feeling, though, and there is nothing
inherently wrong with approving of politeness, of course. She votes for Agan.

22 - Pitch explains Cailin's vote. Also odd, since the only comment on it was Lottie, who thought it wasn't great but
didn't find it wolfish. Says Oz's post is easy. Funny, considering I would say that about Pitch's posts as well.

23 - I say Pitch makes me uneasy. Which he did. I was primarily interested in seeing his reaction to that statement
as well as others' reactions to my lack of explanation. If my intuition was correct, I thought I might play a decoy-seer,
and if not, wolves might latch on to it, or go after me, in hopes of a bandwagon.

27- Pitch wants an explanation from me as well as Sally. This is perfectly reasonable. Not so sure about the wording, which
once again feels very careful.

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

29 - Pitchwife retires with IC banter. Nothing wrong with it.

37 - I refuse to explain, waiting for further reactions.

41 - Agan points to Pitch's "passive-aggressive phrasing". I'm not sure if I agree. It was, a bit, but it is also
to be expected that people will ask about suspicions against them, especially when two come up suddenly without
explanation.

43- Shasta distrustful of Pitch "bandwagon" though he doesn't like his "havens forfend" remark.

44- Lottie can see where people are coming from with Pitch, but wouldn't have thought of it on her own and therefore
doesn't want to point fingers at him. This is doubly odd, considering that there is a lot of unease, but not actual
arguments, about Pitch, and that she seems to be covering all her bases here in a fishy sort of way.

45 - Boro: Pitch hasn't been particularly jumpy, not sure where it's coming from.

46 - Kit: Pitch isn't jumpy, but does speak a lot without saying anything.

48 - Inzil says part of Pitch's second post feels forced (I agree on this, it does) and agrees on "no Blind Guardianing" -
which is a fine point in itself, but in Pitch's post added to what I felt was its safety and obviousness. Inzil
talks about the wolves having to narrow down the potential cobblers through hints, and the cobbler having to hint to
avoid being killed. I missed this before, but it makes me feel better about Inzil, as it seems he's trying to prevent
the cobbler and wolves from using Mac & Agan's plan (if they will forgive me for calling it that).

55- Nessa saying it's reasonable for Pitch to want answers, and that I seem to know something "we don't". Agree on
Pitch, I'm still not sure what she's driving at with me. That I'm a wolf who knows Pitch isn't? I would know that about
every non-wolf in the village, and he could still be the cobbler. That I'm a cobbler? Then I wouldn't know anything.
That I am the cobbler and going to hint Pitch to the wolves at night? That would be a pretty bad plan, as they would
probably take him for the cobbler. That I'm impersonating a seer? Innocents have reason to do that. In short,
the comment is either not fully thought out, or an attempt at casting suspicion (or suspected giftedness?) on me without
putting herself on the line. I'm leaning toward the "not thought out" option, though. It's a risk I took by being vague,
and I expected it.

58 - I'm becoming more OK with Pitch. Considering the timing, I guess I can see now why Nessa thinks her suspicion of
me is responsible, but it's prompted by Inzil's "forced", which struck me as opportunistic, and Lottie's "seeing where people are coming from" which, as I said, doesn't make sense.
This is the sort of circling-buzzard behavior I was looking for, even more so than Nessa's suspicion toward me.
On second look, Agan, who gave a bit of a "rubbing hands together evilly" feel in 41, looks even worse.

63 - Kit votes Pitch for trying to look helpful.

65 - Mac agrees with Kit on Pitch.

66 - Oz says Pitch is being himself, Nessa and Sally are more unhelpful.

67 - Oz questions Nessa on her post number 55.

68 - Legate doesn't think Pitch is Mr.Agreeable, nor does he do anything that "smells of Wolf" (if I read this
correctly). I'm really not sure why he thinks this. Discusses wolf-on-wolf voting with Pitch, reasonable.

69 - Agan acting oddly here, as if she's trying to pass off responsibility for her Pitch comments to me (which would
have been the reason it would have tempted a wolf in the first place: I started it)

I only started to pay attention to the post when Rikae quoted it. Alone, I think it looked somewhat jumpy in the sense that it seemed very carefully phrased

71 - Elrond's Daughter worried about Pitch's "list of words" to make it seem like he's contributing.

72 - Inzil thinks Kit's Pitch vote is an easy vote.

73 - Greenie finds Nessa's Pitch comments odd, my backing off innocent unless I thought my work was done.

77 - Wilwa defending Pitch, I think a bit over-the-top, like a wolf trying to wash her hands of a bandwagon.

80 - I clarify about Pitch. (I overlooked Agan's prominence in going after Pitch yesterDay - I
was focused on Inzil and Lottie).

82 - Pitch talking about my suspicion bearing fruit, me "backpedaling", and so forth. A bit too easy to see my
behavior as wolfish. Indeed. Of course, more people have defended him than suspected him at this point, if I'm
correct, but being suspected is no fun even for innocents, especially on Day one, so I'm not sure this post is
especially bad. He sees what I was doing, at least, which shows a certain detachment. This is good.

83 - Wilwa questions me suspecting her for agreeing with me. I suppose it might seem ungrateful of me(?) but
I do that all the time. Anyone can express pretty much any opinion; I tend to think how and when they express it tells
more about their motives than what it is or who they agree with.

87 - Eomer says Wilwa is "trying too hard" with the Pitch-wagon stuff.

89 - Wilwa explains the Pitch-wagon. I like this, it's sensible enough. I suppose I can see why an innocent might
get over-the-top trying to avoid what they see as a misguided Day one lynching. I've done it myself. Why, then,
did Wilwa's initial "Pitch wagon" post bother me? Looking back, I guess it must be the wording: "I refuse to jump on..."
as though she is being compelled to by someone. There is less of a "this wagon is wrong because..." and more of a
"look at me, I'm not a part of this!" feel to it.

95 - Boro talking about Pitch as Mr. Agreeable. Not sure where this comes from, since that doesn't seem to be the reason for most of
the suspicion.

96 - Pitch - Lommy and Greenie too quiet, Mac too focused on looking for the cobbler.

97 - Sally - Pitch too smooth.

98 - Inzil unsure about Pitch, will let that wagon pass him by.

101 - Pitch disagrees with Sally - wants to know what is bizarre about Kit and thinks Sally is twisting Skip's words.

In this and Pitch's previous post I get a sense of trying to deflect attention, without much actual wolf-hunting beyond that.

110 - Pitch suspects ED because her only post was basically agreeing with people and latching on to Pitch-suspicion.
(Which is a decent point. She is flying nicely under the radar).



111- Lommy likes Pitch's posts, but he's jumpy.

114 - Pitch - Philosopher talk with Lommy.

118 - Pitch - Here comes the alternative bandwagon (Lottie).

127 - Sally votes for Pitch "for shiftiness".

152 - ED votes for Pitch. Safe... says it feels like a shot in the dark. Careful...

Day Two

183 - Pitch suspecting Nessa because she may have thought Oz was the seer, and because of her comments about
me knowing something, but dismisses this because he is not (?) her packmate and she would otherwise be a cobbler.
Sidesteps the other problems with Nessa's comment, I think. It isn't necessary that he be her packmate. I don't
actually think that Nessa, if evil, thought I knew anything at all- just that the impression I did could be used
aganst me. If she thought I actually knew something, she would more likely have night-killed me.

188 - Pitch thinks Kath is a no-trace kill, unlikely to be killed by an Inzil wolf. I think that's unlikely too,
unless Inzil's first comment toDay is a planned double bluff ("no wolf would be so openly paranoid!" type thing).

189 - Backs up Cailin's point about wolves not starting bandwagons.

200 - ED still doesn't like Pitch's "vibes".

202 - Boro defends his defense of Pitch - Mr. Agreeable business. I can't conclude anything from this - can
see it as innocentish defense, but Boro's lack of substance does worry me.

210 - Skip suggests wolf in crowd in danger of lynching, including Pitch. Feels good, however, about Pitch.

Ok, so all this hasn't really clarified my feelings about Pitch - on a scale of innocent-1 to evil-10 he's still
about a 6.5 - but it has revealed an interesting web of pro-and-anti-Pitch sentiment that encompasses pretty much
the whole village. That could be useful.

[skip spence]

As a matter of fact I gotta dash. Social duties must be fulfilled.

++Elrond's Daughter

This may seem random, and it is to a large degree, but I'd rather try a shot in the dark at a submarine at this point than at a person who's contributed more.

[skip spence]

Not that happy about Lottie's vote by the way. Seems too safe a choice.

And Rikae. Wow!

[Rikae]

I am starting to like the idea of lynching a "quiet one" toDay myself. The loud ones are so intertwined, the death of one will tell us something about others; the quiet ones not so much. The wolves seem inclined toward no-trace kills, perhaps for this reason. We would force them to kill a loudmouth and leave a trail... if we lynch an evil quiet one, so much the better, but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I will say I don't like the idea of lynching Kitanna as per my idea earlier. I might not be opposed to lynching, say, Greenie, whom I can never read, if a submarine is what we want. Plus I know how dangerous Mufasa can be .

[Cailín]

I am uncomfortable with Loslote's vote and I do not like how Wilwarin is abstaining at all.

Heading home now, so I will be back with my vote in a little while.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am starting to like the idea of lynching a "quiet one" toDay myself. The loud ones are so intertwined, the death of one will tell us something about others; the quiet ones not so much. The wolves seem inclined toward no-trace kills, perhaps for this reason. We would force them to kill a loudmouth and leave a trail... if we lynch an evil quiet one, so much the better, but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed.

I'm not in favor of voting a submarine just for the heck of it. There are already three innocents gone. Going after a quiet player whom one has nothing else on is all right for a Day 1 tactic, but I'd prefer voting for someone who actually looks suspicious, if most don't want to vote Kit.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm not in favor of voting a submarine just for the heck of it. There are already three innocents gone. Going after a quiet player whom one has nothing else on is all right for a Day 1 tactic, but I'd prefer voting for someone who actually looks suspicious, if most don't want to vote Kit.

There are submarines who look suspicious, though. Actually, being a submarine is in itself suspicious, but beyond that, there are ED and Lottie. Given a choice between a suspicious loud (in this case, Pitch) and quiet one, I'd go for the quiet one toDay for the reasons I mentioned.

Shasta, I wouldn't normally consider Greenie quiet... hm?

Definitely opposed to voting Kit.

[Pitchwife]

Phew, sorry for coming back so late - had some shopping to do, and then our ducks led me on a merry chase through the garden for the better part of an hour before I could finally convince them to go to bed.
So there's been a lot of things happening in my absence. I believe Kit, if only because a wolf couldn't hope to achieve anything for her side by volunteering to be lynched if she's going to withdraw anyway whereas the Hunter could. It seems a waste to let her go without making use of her gift, but at this stage, I think the odds are too high that she hits an innocent, and besides, if we all vote for her there'll be zero conclusions to draw from the voting tomorrow.
Speaking of the Kit/hunterbusiness, I was beginning to suspect Shasta yesterDay for his latching on to Legate's suspicion of Lottie, but this makes me think much better of him:

Regarding Kitanna - I'm going to voice an idea no one seems to have come up with yet - given that there are currently five baddies and two kills a night, it doesn't really seem fair to the village to handicap them due to inactivity. I personally think the fair thing to do would be to redistribute Kitanna's role. *shrug*

Can't see a baddie suggesting such a thing.

With that out of the way, I have some questions and answers for Mac.

Originally Posted by Mac

Pitch defended Sally's quietness before, but then attacks her after her big post. What I don't like is that he continues saying that he doesn't know what to think of her. It's fishy.

I attacked some things she said which I found attackworthy, but couldn't digest her huge post thoroughly enough at the time to come to a proper conclusion. So this is fishy?

Please explain how you can say my vote for Nessa was "baddie-baddie-bad-bad" (which is an awful lot of emphasis) when you know neither my role (which you very obviously don't) nor hers.

Originally Posted by Mac

It was by no means the only thing I talked about. I'd also say it's better than the bantering or endless role/rule discussion we see so much on Day1, so come on.

1. I object to that nickname.
2. Right, I believe you said some other things too, although I can't at the moment recall any without going back and rereading (which I think says something), but you kept coming back to this time and again (with a lot of help from Agan herself, I admit). It's better than banter anytime of course, but for my taste you seemed to concentrate too much on the cobbler at a time when we still urgently need to get a wolf. (I forget, you think you've already caught one, don't you?)

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't like it how you keep on saying I only talk about Aganzir and cobblers and that that makes you suspicious of me. The fact I suspected you is not the real reason, by any chance?

I'm not saying that didn't colour my perception of you in any way - not the fact that you suspected me per se, but how you did it for a rather flimsy reason which I get suspected for in any other game. In your first ever post on Day One, you put Rikae in "the nice place on the mantelpiece for putting their suspicion and vote in the right place", which pretty much looks like it's a foregone conclusion for you that I'm guilty, and now Boro apparently must be too for the mere reason that he defended me yesterDay. I just don't get how you got there in the first place.

EDIT: x-ed from #247 down
EDITEDIT: actually from #249, sorry for the mistake