WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[elronds_daughter]

I'll try to give a more substantial post once I've had some sleep, but my feelings at the moment are...

Mac makes sense to me, and I can't seem him being guilty.

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I'm mildly worried about almost everyone who killed Sally. The lack of adequate reasoning bewilders me; but, then again, it may just have been Day-1 paranoia.

I still don't like the vibes I'm getting from Pitch.

Eomer worries me. There is a bit too much defensiveness...

Not really sure about other people. Legate is very analytical, but seems to me he's usually like that.

On the whole Kitanna situation...this is highly tragic. There may be tears.

Right, well. Now I've said my piece and I'm off to bed.

[skip spence]

Good Day (if you can call it good and day)

Originally Posted by Lottie

EDIT: xed with Skip

What, you confused my Avatar with Eomer's?

Speaking of the Sally bandwagon and her cobbler idea.

Originally Posted by Legate

But that said, I can see the reason of voting sally because of that. However (and once again when I am fresh, I have to take a look at the bandwaggon for her, to see how big it actually was and who was there), I am inclined to believe that some WWs might have very likely mingled with the crowd there.

Personally I missed that cobbler-hint thingie yesterDay but reading back I get the impression a few of her voters went for her because of that (Wilwa, Agan, Lommy?). Or with that as a pretext. Obviously it would be interesting to find out if there was a werewolf (or wolves?) among the crowd who was in apparent danger of getting lynched. By the crowd I mean Pitch, Lottie, Nessa and Inzil.

Here I think Nessa looks objectively the worst but I also share Mac's concern about a lupine stitch-up, what with the killing of Oz, who I was also surprised to see killed. A set-up for an easy lynch might might be the explanation. Or that Nessa is a frightened wolf. Or neither.

Most people left the voting until late. If there was a ww in that crowd, how would his/her fellows act?

Originally Posted by Legate

If you find that hint in Ozzy's post, I am going to give you a medal. (And then probably lynch you, since I can't see an innocent seeing a Seer see-saw see... something there.

I find this over-the-top defence of unfortunate Ozzy rather suspect to be honest. You wouldn't dream of killing your buddy, eh?

Originally Posted by elrond's daughter

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I've seen this sentiment elsewhere and I don't like it. Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game. If his ww behaviour was that predictable I wouldn't fear him at all. But I do. Nothing very worrying about Inzil at present though.

Today, and spontaneously, I feel good about Pitch, Rikae and Mac. They all make sense and seem helpful. Though I must question the premiss that making sense is a good sign of innocence.

Getting slightly worried about Legate. Not convinced of Nessa's good intentions either. She was a bit twitchy yesterDay. Also worried about wolves hiding in the crowd. This is such a large village one tends to forget completely about those who rarely comment (and lacks name recognition). Wouldn't be surprised to find at least two among the submarines. But it's always hard to vote for a someone you have no info on.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not so sure if I'll be back close to DL, so I'm gonna go ahead and cast my vote. I'm still really worried about Rikae, and it wouldn't sit right with me to vote some of the other speculated people when it's a whole mess in there.

++Rikae

[Aganzir]

Hey Boro I had a dream Legate mailed someone I study with and told her I had a huge crush on her (I don't). She proceeded to text me to meet her at her favourite bar tonight. Any help?

Now, I'm going to divide people in groups based on what they said of me yesterday.

Found me evil
Mac (I was down as cobbler till he found someone better)
Cailín (voted for me randomly)

Found me good
Shasta (I'm logical and down to earth)
Lottie (I looked almost too good)
Legate ("I am not suspecting Agan - at least not because of what she said, as I believe what she said makes sense. And if she were a Wolf/Cobbler signaling to the Cobbler/Wolves, she would have actually given a more direct hint, I believe. But that is what she does not seem to do, in my opinion.")
ed (Agan doesn't look too bad to me, maybe a little shifty, but I'll have to go back and read through things again)

Didn't reach a conclusion
Pitch ("Agan is daring enough to sort of hide in the open, and I remember an Agan-cobbler who talked about the cobbler all the time; but since our primary aim is not to lynch the cobbler but the wolves, I'm disinclined to vote her for the time being. It's when she starts other people of being the cobbler that I'll get worried about her.")
wilwa (thinks I'm too obvious to be the cobbler which might be the plan)
Rikae (I could be anything)
Lommy (refused to talk about me)

Now, I'm almost certain Mac isn't a wolf. I'm aware I looked cobblerish yesterday. I don't think a wolf would be the first to point it out and suspect me because of it: even though I tend to talk about the cobbler a lot, the wolves simply couldn't be certain it wasn't me.

I'm more concerned about Legate. He seemed to pooh-pooh the confusion around me with "if she was evil she would've dropped more obvious hints!" Legate should realise no real hinting could take place yesterday anyway, so I don't get why he thinks I would've been more direct as a baddie. Basically he says I'm innocent because I didn't do something I wouldn't even have been able to do.

Pitch is interesting as well. He basically says "Agan could be the cobbler but let's not lynch her at least until she starts suspecting others of being the cobbler!" It could possibly be a wolf hinting at a suspected cobbler: "Hey there I see you, now calm down!"

Wilwa reproached me for underlining sally's cobbler thing. Before that she said I looked too obvious to be the cobbler which might be my plan. I find it interesting she never actually seemed to suspect me, though. If you're innocent and someone basically screams cobbler to you, why not act on it?

I find ed's 71 slightly fishy. It's like "I haven't seen anything particularly bad about Agan & Lottie, I should probably go back and check (if I can justify possible future suspicion against them)!"

Originally Posted by wilwa

Agan always refers to unknown people as a 'she', it's her way of protesting against our male-dominated society (at least, that's what I like to think she's doing).

Yeah, for me she is the norm.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Nessa seems off; the "oddsmaking" post just looks like trying to seem helpful. That sort of thing would be understandable in the Endgame, but really, why do that on Day 1, except to say something for the sake of not being a submarine?

I both agree and disagree. It's a good way to seem helpful, but I also think it's good to know where we stand. The wolves are certainly aware of how long they need to stay alive, and so should us.

I guess skip had a point about the seer not leaving trails that point at unknowns, but I don't like it because it can backfire so easily. Skip hasn't played that much yet, though, so I guess past experience might explain it. I'm not feeling overly good about skip though.

Okay then on to today.

I find it somewhat unnerving that within three minutes of the start of the day, Inzil comes in and draws a link between himself and both the dead. A wolf trying to say it before anyone else does?

Originally Posted by Inzil

mainly the Sally-wagon. What were you lot thinking?

That it was extremely thoughtless of sally to post about the cobbler sending her own name first. It's more likely than not that the cobbler had already thought of it, but when it was said aloud on the thread, it minimised the cobbler's risk of death at doing so. One Schuhmacher once suggested on day 1 that the cobbler might do it and he was almost lynched for it, but us wolves basically knew from then on it was him.
As for me, I had just half an hour to read the entire thread and didn't have too much time to think things through. Sally's post jumped out at me more than anyone else's (and just for the sake of it, I didn't actually suspect her for being quiet).

Originally Posted by wilwa

But then Agan went and brought a lot of attention to it, guaranteeing that the baddies saw it (so the wolves may have assumed the name they received belongs to their Cobbler).

It's idealistic to think the baddies wouldn't have seen it - they are usually the keenest readers of because they need to find the gifteds.

Originally Posted by Legate

Of course, there is the possibility that either of the kills was suggested to the Wolves by the Cobbler. However, it would be a rather weird pick, in my opinion.

I doubt it. The wolves couldn't afford to kill the one the cobbler suggested, just on the offhand chance it was the cobbler herself.

Originally Posted by Legate on the sallywagon

I am inclined to believe that some WWs might have very likely mingled with the crowd there.

I can't remember right off who voted for her, but I'm actually inclined not to think so. Would the wolves risk voting for someone who basically said "the cobbler will suggest herself first"?

Aww Kit! That's a pity because I had looked forward to playing with you.

Mac not that it probably matters but I xed since an earlier post of Lommy's, therefore not only with her but also Lottie's vote.

Originally Posted by Mac

When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally.

I didn't - because I wasn't doing "exactly that". I found it way more likely they'd try to establish connection about the same way I hinted to you, and that's the kind of comments I intended to keep an eye on. Sending one's own name is highly risky unless it's discussed on the thread before, and that's why I refused to make fun of you in one of my early posts.

This is ridiculous given our history and all, but at the moment I actually find Mac the most innocent-looking.

Originally Posted by Boro

now that I've seen how the mind of the Alpha Female Scar works.

Originally Posted by Legate on Kit

It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on.

I agree - the longer we can postpone killing the hunter, the better the chances she gets a wolf. But that of course depends on Kit.

Originally Posted by Nessa

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

What exactly is this theory you're talking about?