WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought I'd be back long before I actually made it back. Pity, that.

Okay, so we have a couple things to look at. Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable. We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on. And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at.

Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far). No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit.

I'll be back with more.

[Loslote]

I don't really have suspicions at this point. Sally had that one post that caught my eye (in the painful, eye's-gone-now kind of way, not in the oh-that's-so-pretty kind of way), but other than that, not much. I can see where people are coming from about Pitchie, but I don't think I would have noticed it on my own, so I'm hesitant to point fingers at him. Mac's big post of postiness was unnerving, but the one game I played with him (at least, I think that's the only game) I thought the same think about innocent!Mac.

But I do have a lot of people who seem reasonably not-evil right now. Agan looks almost too good (I'm oh so used to suspecting her ). Kit looks really innocent so far - probably the most so - but I haven't played with her much, so I can't really be sure. Skip looks decent, in a not-ringing-any-alarms sort of way. Shasta seems rather innocent in a not-wolvish way.'

[Blind Guardian]

So....hi guys!

So, time ends in one hour thirty minutes or by 10AM tomorrow? Sorry, I am still confused. And I am going by BD clock.

I suspect Ozban cause of this:

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves! Has anyone seen Shasta?

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)? And why do you want Shasta? Maybe 'cause I remember Shasta was a really good wolf one game past...

Also, I am not voting toNight because I am not going to be back on. (Maybe if the DL is at 10AM tomorrow morning I will, maybe)

e;x with everyone since post 43

[Inziladun]

Lots to digest, here. What are you people trying to do? And I can't even have a Guinness to help me make sense of things.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And as Lommy said the sooner we get a wolf, the better. If the seer dreams of one at an early stage (ie before we've lynched any), she should probably consider if it's worth coming out and getting rid of the double kills.

I believe I'd concur. We've seen recently that the trails of a dead Seer can be rather untrustworthy. They may clearly lead to a wolf, or, as has already been discussed, they can lead innocents quite astray, eh, Shasta and Pitch?
Also, an inventive Ranger can make things difficult for the wolves, even with the Seer revealed.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Never fear, I fully intend to shine the lamp of reason on my fellow prisoners and seek to discriminate fair from foul. But this can only be done if everybody speaks up. As our first Day here has been preternaturally prolonged, we've got lots of time for discussion - let's not waste it with moping about the uselessness of Day One!

I'll probably be accused of latching onto the suspicion on Pitch, but he somewhat bothers me too. This feels a bit forced.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

To which I'd like to add, No BlindGuardianing either, please. She's been the default D1 lynch in her last two games, I'd be very wroth to see that repeated without very good reasons.

Now, I'd agree with this. She has a history of being lynched very early, and I can think of only one occasion where she was evil. I'd be inclined to at least let her make it through Day 1.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If anyone has a dream (either dark or light, makes no difference to me) that needs interpretting, speak up. Dreams can reveal some of the darkest secrets and inner-most secrets.

I had a dream I was eating Frosted Mini Wheats, and when I woke up my pillow was gone.

Originally Posted by Loslote

On to more game-related stuff - knee jerk reaction to the posts so far gives me a good feeling about Boro and Pitchie and a not-quite-as-good feeling about Sally. The other people I didn't get much of an impression from. (Normal disclaimer follows; I do not claim that this is exactly right; I do not want everyone voting Sally in a bandwagon of Shastanic porportions the moment I leave; I hold no responsibility if this happens. )

Why would you assume people would jump on your vague suspicion, and feel the need to qualify your feelings?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

On the other hand, I see our Mod has seen fit to grant the cobbler a means to send secret messages to the wolves, so I don't know how much 'open' hinting we're going to see on the thread. Still worth keeping an eye open, to be sure.

Well, the Cobbler can send suggestions to the wolves regarding their kill, and over time they'll be able to narrow down the Cobbler that way. That's pretty time consuming, though, and the Cobbler doesn't want to be killed by them, so I'd think some hints would be likely.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Happy New Vailan Year to all of you!

Should Aulë-quaintance be forgot....

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, Cailín's vote isn't all that great, but it doesn't look particularly wolfy to me. I don't really see a wolf voting that way. I've never played with her, though, so I don't know what a Wolín looks like.

Could be a Cobbler-signal. Early, ill reasoned votes can well serve that purpose. Then again, she seems to be rather busy IRL.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

The time is now... Whatever time it currently is!

Whew, there's a nice little intro. And hopefully, as town crier, I can shed light on the situation in the same manner as my brother tradesmen. Day1 is always confusing, so I suppose I'll do some statistics.

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

So now we are at 19-5, if we count the cobbler with the wolves. If we kill a villager, it is 18-5, and 19-4 if we kill the cobbler or a wolf. But if we kill a wolf, after toNight's kills we'll be at 18-4 toMorrow, instead of 17-4. If we kill a villager, we'll be at 16-5 toMorrow. No good there.

Whew, I love math.

Thanks for the effort, but is odds-making necessary at this point? Just sayin'. Sorry, Sally. I forgot you had a ™ on that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So this Day1 lasts for 36 hours.

It began on 10AM GMT/UTC (3AM EST)

and will end on 10PM GMT/UTC (3PM EST) tomorrow.

Herr Mod, shouldn't the EST time be 5PM? I think they're GMT-5.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)? And why do you want Shasta? Maybe 'cause I remember Shasta was a really good wolf one game past...

I believe that was a banter post. And he mentioned Shasta becase the last game he played in, we lynched Shasta-seer Day 1.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Why would you assume people would jump on your vague suspicion, and feel the need to qualify your feelings?

It's happened before - I threw out vague suspicion of Shasta Day 1, and he was lynched near-unanimously. I assumed no one would jump on it then, and they did, so now I'm assuming they will and, hopefully, that'll mean that they won't.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's happened before - I threw out vague suspicion of Shasta Day 1, and he was lynched near-unanimously. I assumed no one would jump on it then, and they did, so now I'm assuming they will and, hopefully, that'll mean that they won't.

Well, baddies can latch onto any old bandwagon. What makes Lottie's so inviting?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, baddies can latch onto any old bandwagon. What makes Lottie's so inviting?

It might be the complimentary rainbows and good interior lighting. I'll run a few surveys and get back to you on that.

EDIT: xed with the Mod-Dude

[Macalaure]

About all those cobbler-wolf hint... quest... thing.

In my experience, it's very unusual for wolves to hint to a suspected cobbler in a normal game, unless it's late in the game and every vote counts. In this game, the cobbler can communicate with the wolves to an extent - their connection is better than usual - and now they are suddenly certainly going to throw around hints? Possible, yes, since the temptation to use the cobbler strategically is there, but we have nearly zero chance to detect any hints now. Once a baddie is dead, we will certainly see clearer, but looking out now and possibly basing suspicions and cases on it, is almost certainly going to backfire.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

About all those cobbler-wolf hint... quest... thing.

In my experience, it's very unusual for wolves to hint to a suspected cobbler in a normal game, unless it's late in the game and every vote counts. In this game, the cobbler can communicate with the wolves to an extent - their connection is better than usual - and now they are suddenly certainly going to throw around hints? Possible, yes, since the temptation to use the cobbler strategically is there, but we have nearly zero chance to detect any hints now. Once a baddie is dead, we will certainly see clearer, but looking out now and possibly basing suspicions and cases on it, is almost certainly going to backfire.

I think hints are far more likely coming from the Cobbler to the wolves. The Cobbler doesn't mind getting lynched, really, and as you say, hinting on the part of the wolves is rather risky this early.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I had a dream I was eating Frosted Mini Wheats, and when I woke up my pillow was gone.

Were they evil frosted mini wheats, or ordinary, and do you even like frosted mini wheats?

As to your pillow being gone, have you found it? And if so, where? Sometimes I throw my pillows around in my sleep. If this is the case, than it would suggest you were battling some unknown force.

If it's the case that someone took your pillow, in your sleep, than the pillow being gone is irrelevant to the dream.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I think hints are far more likely coming from the Cobbler to the wolves. The Cobbler doesn't mind getting lynched, really, and as you say, hinting on the part of the wolves is rather risky this early.

And we always forget the usual truth that gifteds walk the tight rope of sending cobbler hints so the wolves don't kill them, but not looking too cobblerish where they wind up getting lynched if no one has solid wolf suspects. It's a mighty fine tight-rope to walk.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not really so sure about the whole Pitchwife suspicion I'm seeing here. With unexplained Day1 suspicion, when nearly anything would suffice, it's perfectly reasonable for him to want some answers. So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

If I did, it would behoove you as an innocent not to mention it.

But actually, I'm becoming relatively more OK with Pitchie and less so with Inzil and Lottie at the moment. It's all in the reactions...

Oh yeah, and: quite a lot of talk about how various roles are likely to behave for such a basic game, isn't there?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Or maybe you ate your pillow while dreaming about eating frosted mini wheats?

Such wisdom. A true gift, you have.

Originally Posted by Rikae

If I did, it would behoove you as an innocent not to mention it.

But actually, I'm becoming relatively more OK with Pitchie and less so with Inzil and Lottie at the moment. It's all in the reactions...

Oh yeah, and: quite a lot of talk about how various roles are likely to behave for such a basic game, isn't there?

Now there's the Rikae we know and love.

[Ozban]

Sorry for double-posting, this just stroke me as I reread the one before.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I'm not really so sure about the whole Pitchwife suspicion I'm seeing here. With unexplained Day1 suspicion, when nearly anything would suffice, it's perfectly reasonable for him to want some answers. So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

Nessa, would you care to explain that post? Were you trying to suggest any powers, or even gift on Rikae's part? Why would you bring attention to someone whom you suspect to be the seer (that's how I understood your post) on Day1? Wouldn't that endanger the "possible-seer" ???
Way my reasoning goes that isn't something "good-guy" should do.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's more than likely that the wolves and the cobbler try to identify each other as soon as possible, so we should watch out for people who look like they know too much (even if they can't really do that till tomorrow). Of course the wolves & the cobbler have information we don't, but it's still possible they get overly confident and slip something.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

This could be a coincidence. It could have no correlation whatsoever. Or it could be cobbler!Nessa trying to hint back at Agan, who she thinks is a wolf, or it could be wolf!Nessa trying to hint back at Agan, who she thinks is the cobbler. Just throwing that out there.

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I believe that was a banter post. And he mentioned Shasta becase the last game he played in, we lynched Shasta-seer Day 1.

Exactly, I witnessed lynching Shasta-seer on day1 during my first game. It's quite memorable, not to mention how "thrilling" the game was after that.

I am concerned about Inzil, he's unreadable to me.

Boro amazes me, what a dream-teller.

One thing I can be sure of, I'm not voting Legate, I'm not willing to risk same banwagon I launched last time.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I feel, though he's said a lot trying to look helpful, but hasn't really helped anything at all. Of course he still has 10ish hours to come back, but I don't. So going on what I have to work with now Pitch looks the most suspicious to me.

I see more people as "unhelpful" as Pitch. Satan, Nessa I'd say. Way I see it He's just being himself.

I shall probably vote some low-profiler. There's hardly anything solid to latch onto.

Later...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Herr Mod, shouldn't the EST time be 5PM? I think they're GMT-5.

Achh... you're right... I was thinking it 7 hours from my time (which is correct).

Sorry. I'l correct my earlier "correction" concerning the EST.

The deadline is 10PM GMT/UTC - aka. 5PM EST.


Also to Blind Guardian: 19½ hours left of the day...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Should Aulë-quaintance be forgot....

...and Nessa brought to mind;

Inziladun gets free pass for today for making me laugh.

My major impression of the first part of today has been that no-one wants to stand out. Although Ozban looks as though he's a potential nutter. I'll give him a pass too.

Any one of you could be a wolf. Tomorrow will be more interesting. Be back to vote later, though also not for Cailin as that would be an awkward way to say hello after two months.

Ok, I at least have a mini-list of people not to vote for!

[Kitanna]

I meant to post again, but when I sat down to do so I had nothing new to say. But I have to go to work and I'll be there until the DL. Which means it's voe time.

++Pitch

I feel, though he's said a lot trying to look helpful, but hasn't really helped anything at all. Of course he still has 10ish hours to come back, but I don't. So going on what I have to work with now Pitch looks the most suspicious to me.

I don't have time to elaborate or dissect anyone else. Sorry.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'll only be back briefly before the deadline, because I've got school slammed right into the middle. So hopefully my absence won't be misinterpreted, and there will be enough to read for a good vote.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

Hey what's suspicious about that?

You're the first one to mention cobblers and wolves sending messages. The first point in your first post. And if you look closer at the actual statement, it doesn't even really make sense. I have you down as cobbler until I find someone better.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Mac's big post of postiness was unnerving

Except that it wasn't even the longest one. Agan's just below it was a lot longer and several above were about the same length (with more text, though), so.. huh?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I think if we're to look at Pitch, let's look at his posts prior to asking Rikae and Sally to explain. To me he seems to be speaking a lot without saying anything. Like "here I am, being helpful, but I'm really being sneaky by making noise."

This.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I think hints are far more likely coming from the Cobbler to the wolves. The Cobbler doesn't mind getting lynched, really, and as you say, hinting on the part of the wolves is rather risky this early.

Exactly. But evidence of the sort "A, who might be a cobbler, is sending suspicious messages to B, who A might think might be a wolf" is not solid. If A is dead and certified evil, then yes, but not now.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so I am here like I promised... I won't have time to post anything anymore toDay, so here be a few quick comments and a vote after them.

From the louder people, or from the people who made some stronger impression on me:

I am not suspecting Agan - at least not because of what she said, as I believe what she said makes sense. And if she were a Wolf/Cobbler signaling to the Cobbler/Wolves, she would have actually given a more direct hint, I believe. But that is what she does not seem to do, in my opinion.

Her idea about the Seer revealing toDay if he/she has a known Wolf is actually a good one, as we would limit the kills to 1 and the Ranger could also protect the Seer at least for one more Day. However, it is rather late in the Day, so maybe it's a bit too late for that (and in any case, who knows if the Seer has dreamed about a Wolf anyway. It certainly does not make sense to reveal otherwise).

Nessa's math looks innocent, if you can say anything like that about math.

Mac looks sensible, if you can say anything like that about Mac.

Skip looks... interesting, but not really suspicious.

Inzil seems good to me, not as the last time when he was a Wolf. Oh, or the time before. Oh, or the time before. In fact, if he is the Wolf for something like the fourth time in a row (or almost in a row), I sincerely pity him (that's not to say that it's any less probable that he is one, but the point is, he just does not seem like one this time, or this far).

Not so much of Ozzy, but he is terribly funny. Not very much actually contributive, though. Still, nothing against him for the time being.

Pitchwife is posting, more like commenting, though it doesn't seem to be the 'I am also just Mr.Agreeable' attitude. I don't think at least, in contrary to some others who have said that, that he would do anything that smells of Wolf.

Speaking of him:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

True, although it's probably easier for them to blend in among a larger crowd. The question is, what conclusions should we draw from this once we manage to lynch our first wolf? Like, should we automatically rule out wolf-on-wolf votes? I don't think so - even if the wolves won't sacrifice one of them frivolously, they still may be forced to do so willy-nilly, e.g. if two of them are in danger at the same time.

Not that, I think, but the basic idea makes sense. Like, we should not rule w-on-w votes, quite the opposite, if there are millions of votes (in this huge village), one vote for a fellow Wolf will get lost, and not even threaten the fellow Wolf - basically what you said. But if we lynch a Wolf, then it would be sensible to assume that it was not the WW's doing to orchestrate the lynch on Day 1. At least, I never rule out any possibility, but at least such votes should be less suspicious than others.

Who seems the most curious to me right now is Lottie.

Because of her posts, namely those things:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Agan calls certain roles 'she' habitually - the one that comes to mind is the cobbler. I haven't noticed her calling the seer 'she' before, but it seems like an Aganish sort of thing to do.

Now if we are speaking of Cobbler hints, THIS might be one. And...

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't really have suspicions at this point. Sally had that one post that caught my eye (in the painful, eye's-gone-now kind of way, not in the oh-that's-so-pretty kind of way), but other than that, not much. I can see where people are coming from about Pitchie, but I don't think I would have noticed it on my own, so I'm hesitant to point fingers at him. Mac's big post of postiness was unnerving, but the one game I played with him (at least, I think that's the only game) I thought the same think about innocent!Mac.

But I do have a lot of people who seem reasonably not-evil right now. Agan looks almost too good (I'm oh so used to suspecting her ). Kit looks really innocent so far - probably the most so - but I haven't played with her much, so I can't really be sure. Skip looks decent, in a not-ringing-any-alarms sort of way. Shasta seems rather innocent in a not-wolvish way.'

This was just a very well possibly Wolfy post. I mean, the sort of quiet raising of suspicion, putting in a few names and then saying you don't actually suspect them, but if any people follow your opinion, then you join the bandwaggon and point at that 'I have been saying that I suspect them all along'.

Therefore, since I have to vote

++Loslote

But okay, that's it from me, people - hope to meet you all toMorrow, then I should have far more time than toDay I had.

Edit: xed with Ozzy, whose timezone I will share in several hours...