WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Inziladun · 12-10-2010, 06:43 AM

Well done, Ranger! That moves toDay away from being make-or-break, which it could have been.

Pity that Lottie was wrong about Nog, but at least we still have another Hunter, and a Seer and a Ranger still. With nine of us left that makes it 6:3 against the wolves.

I wonder if anything can be made of yesterDay's votes. We know an innocent (Lottie) was supportive of the Hunter-lynch plan and another innocent (Nog was rather hesitant about it. Does that say anything about the stance people took on it? A wolf would have a reason to have been for it, with the possibility of two innocents at once going down, and to fear it, as xe or xyr packmate could have been targeted by the Hunter.

I'll be shortly going to work and have a doctor's appointment in a few hours as well , but I'll try to check in as often as possible during the workday.

x/d with the previous three

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 12-10-2010, 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well done, Ranger! That moves toDay away from being make-or-break, which it could have been.

Ha! You are striking me as pretty much the definition of a smooth, agreeable, eager-to-please wolf, Inzi.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 12-10-2010, 07:26 AM

In fact, I think it's that tactic which moved Loslote to switch her vote from you to Nogrod. A mistake, I believe.

Legate of Amon Lanc · 12-10-2010, 08:39 AM

Whoops, that was fast, Greenie...

Okay, but as for me, as I intended, I have now looked at LRH and Nessa to get some clearer idea about them...

So, first, Elrond-Hubby:

Day 1 - on Lottie's list of why everyone should be lynched, reacts with saying that she's being "a tad unfair", to which Nerwen reacts with joke-vote for her and Lommy with not-as-much-joke note about that being "typical newbie wolf mistake", to which LRH reacts with a bit of defence about simply newbie mistake.

Then continues with a bit of sad impression, whether acted or serious, "am I supposed to be the first innocent to be lynched?", later changing to cheering Lottie for her "support". Vote for Nerwen with not much reasoning behind it.

Generally: her vote is neutral, as much as basically everybody's was at that point. Her remarks and behaviour could be a deliberate Wolf action like "poor me" and later trying to "buddy up" with Lottie in order to get a supporter. If there is anything suspicious about her, it would be this.

Day 2: Does not like my reasoning and Lommy's (? not sure what exactly, maybe simply "unfriendly"), but says that she might be wrong. Later is confused by the Heir and hunter-reveal, but generally thinks lynching Lottie is okay. At some point, when Nog spoke against it, it seems she started considering what he said, but then Lottie was clearly going to be lynched and so she just followed suit.

Generally: not so much to go with, a bit of a wishy-washy behavior. I could see a Wolf possibly starting to consider Nog's idea in order to avoid lynching a Hunter (and thus giving the innocents the Heir and risking a Wolf being killed), but not sure what would she have expected of that, so I think that does not really bring any point. I will be very interested to see her post more.

**

Nessa:

Day 1 - some general remarks, saying WWs could vote W-on-W in this situation as they'd look innocent and also get the Heir, speculating about which role to lynch, later resigning and suggesting going with random-vote, then going for the uncommunicative, saying that everybody wants to be nice because of the Heir, suspecting Eomer, Nog and Nerwen, voting Nerwen.

Generally: If she was a Wolf, I could see some strategy in e.g. the advocating of lynching the uncommunicative (provided that her fellows were not among the uncommunicative), or in using the speculations about the lynch for her ends (now the question'd be what exactly those ends would be). But by itself, it does not mean anything.

Day 2 - saying WWs possibly went for sally because of her vote (for Lommy), speculating about the outcomes of lynching the Hunter, then throwing in the idea about Nerwen or sally being gifteds, only we don't know about it; and later being "all for hunter-revealment" (although in right the next post, she asked what Lottie meant when she voted herself). Voted Lottie.

Generally: There's not really anything that could be labeled as "suspicious", in my opinion. Her few moments of confusion sort of speak more for her innocence too (although she can be a confused Wolf as well, it just seems less probable).

Altogether, I don't find either of these two especially suspicious or especially innocent. I also cannot somehow imagine that they would be Wolves together (though that's more like just a "feeling of compatibility", anything is possible). They are in some way similar to each other (but maybe that's the newbie status of them in my eyes). Generally, I'd like to see more from them to get some better idea.

Otherwise, I think I might take a look at some other people too, when I am at it. I concur with Eomer's remark about Zil, that's what I meant about him sort of seeming to take the role of "Mr. Agreeable" (although this particular post does not strike me as much, but in some yesterDay ones it seemed to me more like that).

Off to browse the thread a bit...

Thinlómien · 12-10-2010, 09:17 AM

Ok I have to say my participation will suck toDay. I'll be back later to vote and say a few things but don't expect wonders, I've had work from morning and now I'm off to four hours' drive away to see a friend...

Anyway, kudos for the ranger! That kind of compensates for the extra ordo death yesterDay.

Now off.

Thinlómien · 12-10-2010, 09:27 AM

A thought before I go (got a few minutes extra time since my friend is late):

can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles.

Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it.

Will be back to see what happens! Exciting.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 12-10-2010, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

A thought before I go (got a few minutes extra time since my friend is late):

can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles.

Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it.

Will be back to see what happens! Exciting.

I think there's no doubt we'll see a reveal today, but I guess people want to see some reactions to yesterday's craziness first. It's my belief that yesterday was close to perfection for the villagers. I'm very glad this Heir business is out of the way.

wilwarin538 · 12-10-2010, 10:45 AM

Ok, I think I can afford a short break from studying.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

A thought before I go (got a few minutes extra time since my friend is late):

can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles.

Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it.

Will be back to see what happens! Exciting.

K, so where we are at now: 3 Gifteds, 3 Wolves and 3 Ordos. Right? If both the Seer and Ranger reveal (Hunter revealing is bad), and the Seer has had 3 dreams, hoping that they are all still alive, then we would know 2 of the Gifteds and have a couple more known innocents and maybe a wolf. Then whoever the Ranger protected last Night, obviously innocent. So yeah, out of the 9 players we could know the identity of up to 6 of them. That could be very good. Now we'd likely lose one of them toNight, but the wolves would have a tough time figuring out who is being protected, unless their kill choice from last Night narrows it down for them. We could potentially still have our Seer tomorrow for another dream, though, which takes away some of that risk.

But yeah, false reveals are very possible, and oh so annoying. But again, doesn't take long to figure out who's lying, so it could be worth taking the chance.

Personally, I think we could afford it, though I wouldn't suggest both the Seer and Ranger revealing. Maybe the Seer first (especially if they have a wolf), unless all of their dreamed people are dead (though they'd have to be pretty unlucky for that to happen), then they shouldn't. Once the Seer is out we'd really want to have our Ranger still hidden in order to keep the Seer protected. So yeah, not both at the same time. Maybe Seer toDay (potentially) and Ranger tomorrow?

Sorry if some of that didn't make any sense, I can only afford to take a couple minute break before I get too distracted, so I wrote this fairly fast. I'll try to come back again later.

12-10-2010, 06:43 AM	#1
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,039	Well done, Ranger! That moves toDay away from being make-or-break, which it could have been. Pity that Lottie was wrong about Nog, but at least we still have another Hunter, and a Seer and a Ranger still. With nine of us left that makes it 6:3 against the wolves. I wonder if anything can be made of yesterDay's votes. We know an innocent (Lottie) was supportive of the Hunter-lynch plan and another innocent (Nog was rather hesitant about it. Does that say anything about the stance people took on it? A wolf would have a reason to have been for it, with the possibility of two innocents at once going down, and to fear it, as xe or xyr packmate could have been targeted by the Hunter. I'll be shortly going to work and have a doctor's appointment in a few hours as well , but I'll try to check in as often as possible during the workday. x/d with the previous three __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God.

12-10-2010, 07:26 AM	#3
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	In fact, I think it's that tactic which moved Loslote to switch her vote from you to Nogrod. A mistake, I believe. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

12-10-2010, 08:39 AM	#4
Legate of Amon Lanc A Voice That Gainsayeth Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: In that far land beyond the Sea Posts: 7,431	Whoops, that was fast, Greenie... Okay, but as for me, as I intended, I have now looked at LRH and Nessa to get some clearer idea about them... So, first, Elrond-Hubby: Day 1 - on Lottie's list of why everyone should be lynched, reacts with saying that she's being "a tad unfair", to which Nerwen reacts with joke-vote for her and Lommy with not-as-much-joke note about that being "typical newbie wolf mistake", to which LRH reacts with a bit of defence about simply newbie mistake. Then continues with a bit of sad impression, whether acted or serious, "am I supposed to be the first innocent to be lynched?", later changing to cheering Lottie for her "support". Vote for Nerwen with not much reasoning behind it. Generally: her vote is neutral, as much as basically everybody's was at that point. Her remarks and behaviour could be a deliberate Wolf action like "poor me" and later trying to "buddy up" with Lottie in order to get a supporter. If there is anything suspicious about her, it would be this. Day 2: Does not like my reasoning and Lommy's (? not sure what exactly, maybe simply "unfriendly"), but says that she might be wrong. Later is confused by the Heir and hunter-reveal, but generally thinks lynching Lottie is okay. At some point, when Nog spoke against it, it seems she started considering what he said, but then Lottie was clearly going to be lynched and so she just followed suit. Generally: not so much to go with, a bit of a wishy-washy behavior. I could see a Wolf possibly starting to consider Nog's idea in order to avoid lynching a Hunter (and thus giving the innocents the Heir and risking a Wolf being killed), but not sure what would she have expected of that, so I think that does not really bring any point. I will be very interested to see her post more. Nessa: Day 1 - some general remarks, saying WWs could vote W-on-W in this situation as they'd look innocent and also get the Heir, speculating about which role to lynch, later resigning and suggesting going with random-vote, then going for the uncommunicative, saying that everybody wants to be nice because of the Heir, suspecting Eomer, Nog and Nerwen, voting Nerwen*. Generally:* If she was a Wolf, I could see some strategy in e.g. the advocating of lynching the uncommunicative (provided that her fellows were not among the uncommunicative), or in using the speculations about the lynch for her ends (now the question'd be what exactly those ends would be). But by itself, it does not mean anything. Day 2 - saying WWs possibly went for sally because of her vote (for Lommy), speculating about the outcomes of lynching the Hunter, then throwing in the idea about Nerwen or sally being gifteds, only we don't know about it; and later being "all for hunter-revealment" (although in right the next post, she asked what Lottie meant when she voted herself). Voted Lottie. Generally: There's not really anything that could be labeled as "suspicious", in my opinion. Her few moments of confusion sort of speak more for her innocence too (although she can be a confused Wolf as well, it just seems less probable). Altogether, I don't find either of these two especially suspicious or especially innocent. I also cannot somehow imagine that they would be Wolves together (though that's more like just a "feeling of compatibility", anything is possible). They are in some way similar to each other (but maybe that's the newbie status of them in my eyes). Generally, I'd like to see more from them to get some better idea. Otherwise, I think I might take a look at some other people too, when I am at it. I concur with Eomer's remark about Zil, that's what I meant about him sort of seeming to take the role of "Mr. Agreeable" (although this particular post does not strike me as much, but in some yesterDay ones it seemed to me more like that). Off to browse the thread a bit... __________________ "Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories

12-10-2010, 09:17 AM	#5
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Ok I have to say my participation will suck toDay. I'll be back later to vote and say a few things but don't expect wonders, I've had work from morning and now I'm off to four hours' drive away to see a friend... Anyway, kudos for the ranger! That kind of compensates for the extra ordo death yesterDay. Now off. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

12-10-2010, 09:27 AM	#6
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	A thought before I go (got a few minutes extra time since my friend is late): can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles. Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it. Will be back to see what happens! Exciting. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris