Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Personally, I'm still feeling rather anti-Agan. I do still put stock in Shasta's mention of her with me (and, yes, I know this cuts both ways, but I happen to be well aware of my innocence), and she's been all kinds of suspicious, all game... but never tested.

Now it's a bit too late to test me - you should have voted for me on day 1, or day 2, or day 3... whenever I almost got lynched. However, I seem to remember you never wanted to vote for me then: "I don't know enough about Agan, let's wait and see..." Were you perchance afraid Nog was the seer who had dreamed me Ferny? And you never brought up a single point against me before Shasta mentioned us together, but now I'm suddenly "all kinds of suspicious, all game". Sorry but I don't find that a sufficient reason to suspect someone on the day that's possibly the last. You remind me way too much of sally's "She's a wolf because I say so!" show.

Form looks fairly bad.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now it's a bit too late to test me - you should have voted for me on day 1, or day 2, or day 3... whenever I almost got lynched. However, I seem to remember you never wanted to vote for me then: "I don't know enough about Agan, let's wait and see..." Were you perchance afraid Nog was the seer who had dreamed me Ferny? And you never brought up a single point against me before Shasta mentioned us together, but now I'm suddenly "all kinds of suspicious, all game". Sorry but I don't find that a sufficient reason to suspect someone on the day that's possibly the last. You remind me way too much of sally's "She's a wolf because I say so!" show.

Suspicious all game doesn't mean that *I* found you suspicious all game... merely that you have aroused suspicions all game. And on Day 1, certainly, I didn't want to vote for you for that reason alone--Day 1 suspiciousness is, by itself, a flimsy thing. Regarding the whole "Nog is the Seer" business--I never bought that he was the seer, so I never had a suspicion of you on those grounds.

So, yes, you have only been suspicious enough to me in the last few Days. That does not mean there was never any suspicion of you.

However, I'll admit that it could just be that, looking suspicion and leaving too many trails, the wolves have left you alive. But I need another candidate then to vote for... and contrary to the assertion that I have been following everything closely this game, I really don't know who else to vote. Nerwen rubs me the wrong way, but that's just normal for me playing with her, and anyway she's the one with the long critical analysis of me--it'd be unsporting to vote for her just for that.

[Formendacil]

Well, I just lost an hour of deliberation--the lovely Nienna just texted that she's done her course early, so I'm off to meet her and do nauseatingly romantic things...

So... I guess I should vote.

++ Aganzir

Because while I am not sure it's the right thing to do, I feel better sticking to my guns, going down honourably, than about changing thoughts at this stage.

[Kath]

This is the only time toDay I have to be online and my friend is round so I'm going to do what I hate doing and vote and run.

++GREENIE

She struck me as suspicious yesterDay and I KNOW that's terrible reasoning.

[Aganzir]

Form if you're innocent, you've most likely lost the game for us.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitch

One thing I noticed about her that Day is the amount of uncertainty, flipflopping and maybe-maybe not in most of her posts. Could be a clueless ordo, could also be a wolf avoiding to take a clear stance or more likely a cobbler who doesn't yet know whose side to take.

To be fair, I think she's always a bit like that, regardless of her role (flip-flopping clearly comes from her mother's side of the family since Nog isn't known for it ). As for cobbler, I think that's possible, but I'd expect the cobbler to have gone heavily after someone they knew was innocent... Although that probably depends on the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't quite, either.

The comment rubbed me the wrong way. There was something too self-conscious about it, but I wouldn't be so silly as to vote for Nerwen for that reason alone.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'm worried by how immediately Form latched onto this point, but that's rather a point against Form than against Greenie herself.

Me too - and it's not the first time in this game that Form has latched to a seemingly minor point.

Now I'm somewhat worried about almost everyone seeming to be somewhat suspicious of Form... Are we really onto something there, or are the wolves trying to get us to lynch an innocent him? Although it might even be worth it to lynch a suspected fellow(/cobbler) in order to look better yourself...

[Pitchwife]

Present and putting the eyebrows on the Greenalysis I've promised you. Give me about half an hour.

[Pitchwife]

D1
Agrees with Volo that BW would be more honest in her suspicions than wolves, having no knowledge of others' roles, hence hard to catch. Wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, concerned about cobblers and wolves working together because of Ferny's spying abilities. Doesn't like Eomer's and Glirdan's votes, they're too easy. OK with Nog, bad feeling about me for thinking too much from the wolves' POV. Votes Glirdan, because his random vote is excellent wolf-cover. (All fair enough for D1; I disagreed with her concentration on cobblers over the BW at the time, but it was an attempt to broaden the discussion, in so far OK.)

D2
Feels better about me, doesn't like the Aganwagon, is torn about Agan herself but thinks we have better options. Answers me about holes in Nog's arguments against Agan, Nog just doesn't look wolvish. Questions Eomer's and Form's votes: why does entertaining trump useful, and both too easy. We shouldn't focus on the BW, but it's OK to discuss whom the wolves might have targeted. Doesn't think Nog looked Seer-like. No vote. (No strong opinions or suspicions on anybody, but still good enough, I think.)

D3
Questions Form's quietness and vote. Paranoid that Form, Kath and Eomer could be wolves together. Questions Agan's reason to vote Volo 'for being weird', when he always is, then agrees she had a pretty sensible reason, i.e. that Volo suspected Agan for not suspecting Greenie.
A list: pretty much undecided, confused or no idea about most people; not surprised if Eomer is a wolf; both pro and con wolf points about Kath, namely she voted on principles instead of suspicion, which she could have done both as an innocent and as a wolf (she wavers a lot on this); slightly worried by Lottie but has nothing on her; sally's D1 vote not fabulous; feeling OK with Shasta; wilwa seems genuine.
Analyses TEW: his flip-flopping not evil in itself, but doesn't like his dropping earlier suspicions without explanation; not sure a wolf-TEW would be so openly inconsistent.
Could vote Eomer or TEW, Agan innocent, Shasta and Kath seem genuine but she's not certain, at a loss with Zil; quarrel between Agan and sally makes her feel worse about both; votes TEW in spite of his earlier doubts: his inconsistency too off to be genuine, and he's an unhelpful submarine.
(One thing I noticed about her that Day is the amount of uncertainty, flipflopping and maybe-maybe not in most of her posts. Could be a clueless ordo, could also be a wolf avoiding to take a clear stance or more likely a cobbler who doesn't yet know whose side to take. Her tone, however, doesn't really ring false in my ears.
About the vote - what I said about Lottie yesterDay also applies to Greenie, and as we know now Lottie was innocent, it makes me wonder whether Greenie may be, too, so I wouldn't condemn her on that alone.)

D4
Shasta: intends to vote him 'unless something even more drastic turns up', because it's a clear lead from the Seer, but we shouldn't talk about him all Day. sally's Agan-crusade not making sense; guesses sally is Ferny and has found Agan innocent, but not sure if that makes sense; sally's behaviour untypical for her innocent self and too attention-seeking for a wolf or BW.
Votes Shasta.
(Shasta and the sally-Agan thing were the big topics of the Day, and while everybody discussed the former, few people commented on the latter, so that would speak in her favour.)

D5
Doesn't get Agan's point that Shasta's comment linking himself and Nerwen was weird or suspicious. (I don't quite, either.) Still musing what made sally go so heavily after Agan. Agrees with Eomer to leave Lottie alone because TEW dreamed her innocent. Her intuition says to vote someone who isn't considered otherwise, e.g. Nerwen or wilwa, but she won't, having nothing on Nerwen and thinking wilwa innocent. (An odd remark - if she had no real suspicion of either, where did that intuition come from?)
Her big point yesterDay was that Shasta suspected both Agan and Eomer a lot but never voted either; this could be wolf-on-wolf, though probably not with both, hence maybe with neither. Shasta's connection to Agan looks worse, though Agan looks more innocent otherwise; Eomer more likely a wolf, more likely to be lynched, and something hasn't been right with him all the game, therefore she votes him. (Note how she first brings up this point against Agan and Eomer, then immediately questions it, but ends up voting Eomer nevertheless 'because he's more likely to be lynched' - rather bandwagony. I'm worried by how immediately Form latched onto this point, but that's rather a point against Form than against Greenie herself.)

Conclusion so far: Hard to say. Again, what most hits my eye is a lot of uncertainty and then jumping to conclusions in the thoughts leading up to her votes on D3 and D5 (at least it looks to me that way). If she's a confuzzled ordo I can totally sympathize with that, though it could of course be a mask... Still I have to say she sounds honest to me.
What mainly stands out from this is how she was mostly unsuspicious of Agan on D1 and 2, convinced of her innocence on D3, took her side against sally on D4, suddenly started suspecting her on D5 but still thought her more innocent than Eomer. If Agan should be a wolf, I could imagine Greenie as her packmate doing some passing wolf-on-wolf to cover that she was actually focussed on lynching Eomer.

[Pitchwife]

Oops, I totally failed to notice Form and Kath had voted before my first post.

I came out of yesterDay thinking loads of Agan's innocence for her attempt to save Eombadil of the Yellow Boots (and wishing I'd had sense enough not to ruin it), let's see whether that holds. At the time of her vote, the tally was Eomer 3 votes, me and Agan herself 1 each, with Eomer, me and Kath still to vote. Both Eomer and Agan had been suspected by Greenie and Form. Eomer thought Agan innocent and was unlikely to vote her (unless forced to in self-defense), but if both Kath and me had voted Agan, she could still have ended up being tied with Eomer and lynched by coin flip (assuming Agan and Kath aren't wolves together). Where Kath's vote would go seemed pretty uncertain, and I had expressly said that I was still trying to figure Agan out. In this situation, Eomer was her natural ally - hence my paranoia before DL that one of them was manipulating the other (and possibly me and Kath too) to sacrifice Form and save themselves; and Agan wouldn't have wanted to put him into a position where he might turn against her to save himself, with the danger of me and Kath following suit.
The problem is, all this equally applies to an innocent Agan. All that's conclusive is that if Agan's a wolf, Kath can't be and vice versa, for in this case Agan could have counted on Kath to save her in any case and would have had no reason not to simply vote Eomer (except that saving an innocent would make her look good, but I think it's a little late in the game for that).

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I came out of yesterDay thinking loads of Agan's innocence for her attempt to save Eombadil of the Yellow Boots

That's exactly the reason I wanted to save him (or, part of it). When I reread his posts yesterday, the one comment that had earlier struck me as Wightish (about leaving Nog for Tom and ignoring him until that) made me stop and think, "it would really make the most sense for the (dead) BW - or Tom himself to say so." That combined with the fact that three people seemed to want to lynch us both, and suddenly he didn't look half so bad anymore... Although I wasn't sure of it and was afraid I was reading too much into it.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Agan

Now I'm somewhat worried about almost everyone seeming to be somewhat suspicious of Form... Are we really onto something there, or are the wolves trying to get us to lynch an innocent him? Although it might even be worth it to lynch a suspected fellow(/cobbler) in order to look better yourself...

Hm, I don't know. If we lynch a wolf toDay, it'll be 1 wolf + Ferny against 2 ordos toMorrow; if we lynch Ferny, it's 2 wolves vs 2 ordos. Either way, there's still a chance for a village win by coin-flip, if the 2 ordos vote together for the wolf (not that this is very likely to happen, the way things are looking). If we lynch an ordo toDay, on the other hand, it's curtains for the village. I wouldn't want to jeopardize that, if I were a wolf.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Hm, I don't know. If we lynch a wolf toDay, it'll be 1 wolf + Ferny against 2 ordos toMorrow; if we lynch Ferny, it's 2 wolves vs 2 ordos. Either way, there's still a chance for a village win by coin-flip, if the 2 ordos vote together for the wolf (not that this is very likely to happen, the way things are looking). If we lynch an ordo toDay, on the other hand, it's curtains for the village. I wouldn't want to jeopardize that, if I were a wolf.

No - if we lynch a wolf, it'll be 1 wolf + Ferny against 3 ordos; if Ferny, 2 wolves against 3 ordos (so they'd just have to get an ordo to vote for another ordo, just like today) - while if we lynch an ordo, we only stand a chance if the wolves kill the cobbler.

So it would be better for them to lynch an ordo, but if a wolf is under heavy suspicion, I'd say it's worth it to lynch them - after all, it'd only mean one extra day of survival to the remaining wolf who'd then (probably) look a lot better.

However, the innocents are still a majority in the village... So Form being suspected by many doesn't yet make him an ordo.

[Aganzir]

(Most of this post was written before anyone had voted - I went to get some food and Form & Kath posted in the meanwhile.)

Speaking a bit more about Shasta's post where he said Form and me should be modfired... Which is more suspicious: being mentioned by a dying wolf, or reacting heavily to it & taking pains to paint the other person in a bad light, just so no one would connect you with the dead wolf?

I don't know what to think of Nerwen. She's been kind of... elusive the whole game. Her reasons for suspecting me haven't been too impressive (might be just because I know I'm innocent). However, now she's suspicious of Form, too... so I'm probably not voting for her today.

Greenie is something of an enigma too. I've been thinking her innocent pretty much the whole game which is, albeit not unprecedented, unusual because normally I always quarrel with her at some point. She's looked pretty genuine in general - but she voted for EW, and suggested either Eomer or me is probably a wolf (wrong), and I've been disagreeing with her more and more lately.

Kath has been under my radar mostly. She hasn't really done anything to raise my hackles (except vote for EW), but Shasta had a subtle way of defending her. Yesterday she wanted to vote neither Eomer nor Form, saying she found them both innocent. I don't think she and Form are fellows (she could have just come up with a reason to vote for me).

My thoughts aren't much clearer, except that I could vote for Form or Greenie today. I'd prefer Form if there's a chance to lynch him, but even Greenie would be way better than me because there's at least a possibility she's a baddie.