Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I'd say Greenie and Form look the worst - no one else (who's alive) really commented on my argument with sally, but they both suggested there was a baddie involved.

That's one weird argument. We look worse because we commented on a rather prominent and, you have to admit, strange thing taking place at the time, ie. Sally's absolute conviction of your furriness? I thought, and still think, it's a matter that merits some attention. It's a major point that who we now know was the BW purposefully drew so much attention to herself by insisting you are a wolf.

I don't like this silence. I know there are few of us left and all that, but it remains a fact that toDay is a really important one. I have other stuff to do today too but I'll be popping in and out until Deadline (I can afford to stay up late for once since it's Saturday).

There is another thing I don't like, and it's the fact that I have a nagging feeling that I've overlooked something important. Off to do some rereading and thinking to find out what that might be.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That's one weird argument. We look worse because we commented on a rather prominent and, you have to admit, strange thing taking place at the time, ie. Sally's absolute conviction of your furriness? I thought, and still think, it's a matter that merits some attention. It's a major point that who we now know was the BW purposefully drew so much attention to herself by insisting you are a wolf.

When it happened, I thought "Great, someone else finds her suspicious too!" but now that we know she was the BW, one can't help wondering if you had a more opportunistic reason to point out her behaviour... Granted, I might be biased because I suspect you and Form anyway.

And if you want to judge me based on the fact that sally seemed sure I was a wolf, go ahead, but you're wasting your time.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

When it happened, I thought "Great, someone else finds her suspicious too!" but now that we know she was the BW, one can't help wondering if you had a more opportunistic reason to point out her behaviour... Granted, I might be biased because I suspect you and Form anyway.

And if you want to judge me based on the fact that sally seemed sure I was a wolf, go ahead, but you're wasting your time.

Twisting my words, honey. I never said that. I have no idea why Sally would have gone after you that hard, whatever your role and whatever she guessed about it - but it was so decidedly against any goal of hers that I can think of that there has to be a reason I've missed behind it. And that reason might contain information on your alignment, which is why I'm trying to figure it out. Does that make sense?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

it was so decidedly against any goal of hers that I can think of that there has to be a reason I've missed behind it. And that reason might contain information on your alignment, which is why I'm trying to figure it out. Does that make sense?

No.
I doubt you'll find any reason even if you search all her posts with a magnifying glass. I think the most plausible explanation is that she seriously thought I was a wolf, and then it's up to you whether you trust her judgment or not.

[wilwarin538]

So the Agan-Sally thing. I get what Agan is saying about how a wolf may have wanted to draw attention to Sally's guilt, but also that whole thing was very strange and I'm surprised more people didn't really point that out at the time, so I'm not going to suspect Greenie or Form for just that reason. I also don't think that the way Sally went after Agan really gives us any information regarding Agan, because Sally didn't know who the wolves are any better than the rest of us, so her pesonal suspicions don't hold any extra weight.

So right now I'm still leaning towards Form being guilty (we can't keep thinking that the quiet people aren't as likely to be wolves, because there are still a lot of quiet people and there's no way they are all innocent) and his whole attitude is off. Pretending not to care is a pretty good way to go unnoticed. I feel pretty good about both Agan and Greenie. And I haven't payed enough attention to Pitch, Nerwen and Kath, I need to read over everything and actually form an opinion on them. I'll try to do that soon.

[Aganzir]

I don't like this quiet.

There are 7 of us alive. 3-4 (or 2-5 because Ferny counts as an innocent). The wolves know at least each other's identity, possibly even Ferny's. Ferny might know at least one wolf, but even likelier is that he knows one or more ordos - who he can happily try to lynch. And if the baddies have any idea whatsoever about each other, it only takes one ordo who votes another ordo and we lose the game. I'm not sure how likely that is, but it's the worst scenario.

Currently I'm feeling good about wilwa, and Pitch too (although to a slightly lesser degree). There's something going on in the Form/Greenie/Nerwen/Kath group, and I think it might well contain both wolves and Ferny. I'll try to get my thoughts about them organised in a bit.

[Formendacil]

I am aware that, chiefly because of a lack of evidence about me, regarding ANYTHING, I am shaping into a chief candidate for consideration today. This is fair enough, however, as has been noted already, toDay we cannot afford an innocent lynching, lest the village lose the game, and as an innocent, I've no real interest in being the "lynchpin" (pun definitely intended).

I would have been quite happen to die on the Wolves' fangs at some point prior to now, but apparently they are enjoying my suspicious silence far too much. Well, it can't be helped. Nerwen has, accurately enough, called me 'aggressively unhelpful.' Also, she's tired of me drawing attention to my absence...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I also don't care for the way he again draws attention to his general lack of involvement. This is getting absurd– I mean, for someone who clams to have been too busy and apathetic throughout the game to do anything at all productive, he's written some quite long posts, and always seems to have a pretty good handle on what's going on.

I admit to somewhat self-obsessing about me. However, the issue is less that I have no time to grasp what is going on in the game, and more that I have tended to have a single window of opportunity daily to get online. While long enough in itself, this window is not one where a lot of people are around discussing, so it's not one that has been liable to get me sucked into a discussion--the only exception (that I recall) was the day Shasta was dying...

When I told Boro I could play, about a week prior to the game start, I did have high hopes of being more involved, but a week makes a difference, and I may have overestimated my involvement. Still, I've done my best to give the bare minimum to the game (and to the village's victory), and I would have been somewhat happier if that had involved being a warm body for the Wolves to eat, but they have shrewdly left me alive. (Besides, who knows, it might have pointed at Agan's guilt if I turned up dead.)

As to the constant drawing attention to my own lack of involvement... call that self-punishment, of a sort, since I still have a (long outdated) mental image of being a "talks too much" player, and something of a self-defence. As Nerwen said...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Form just analyses himself...

...and again...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Rest of this long post is largely devoted to analysing himself again

Fair enough... I've been doing that. But is my analysis wrong?

Personally, I'm still feeling rather anti-Agan. I do still put stock in Shasta's mention of her with me (and, yes, I know this cuts both ways, but I happen to be well aware of my innocence), and she's been all kinds of suspicious, all game... but never tested.

Granted, this is a point-of-no-return for lynching innocents, but speaking a potential "innocent lynchee," I'm already aware of that.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Personally, I'm still feeling rather anti-Agan. I do still put stock in Shasta's mention of her with me (and, yes, I know this cuts both ways, but I happen to be well aware of my innocence), and she's been all kinds of suspicious, all game... but never tested.

Now it's a bit too late to test me - you should have voted for me on day 1, or day 2, or day 3... whenever I almost got lynched. However, I seem to remember you never wanted to vote for me then: "I don't know enough about Agan, let's wait and see..." Were you perchance afraid Nog was the seer who had dreamed me Ferny? And you never brought up a single point against me before Shasta mentioned us together, but now I'm suddenly "all kinds of suspicious, all game". Sorry but I don't find that a sufficient reason to suspect someone on the day that's possibly the last. You remind me way too much of sally's "She's a wolf because I say so!" show.

Form looks fairly bad.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now it's a bit too late to test me - you should have voted for me on day 1, or day 2, or day 3... whenever I almost got lynched. However, I seem to remember you never wanted to vote for me then: "I don't know enough about Agan, let's wait and see..." Were you perchance afraid Nog was the seer who had dreamed me Ferny? And you never brought up a single point against me before Shasta mentioned us together, but now I'm suddenly "all kinds of suspicious, all game". Sorry but I don't find that a sufficient reason to suspect someone on the day that's possibly the last. You remind me way too much of sally's "She's a wolf because I say so!" show.

Suspicious all game doesn't mean that *I* found you suspicious all game... merely that you have aroused suspicions all game. And on Day 1, certainly, I didn't want to vote for you for that reason alone--Day 1 suspiciousness is, by itself, a flimsy thing. Regarding the whole "Nog is the Seer" business--I never bought that he was the seer, so I never had a suspicion of you on those grounds.

So, yes, you have only been suspicious enough to me in the last few Days. That does not mean there was never any suspicion of you.

However, I'll admit that it could just be that, looking suspicion and leaving too many trails, the wolves have left you alive. But I need another candidate then to vote for... and contrary to the assertion that I have been following everything closely this game, I really don't know who else to vote. Nerwen rubs me the wrong way, but that's just normal for me playing with her, and anyway she's the one with the long critical analysis of me--it'd be unsporting to vote for her just for that.

[Aganzir]

(Most of this post was written before anyone had voted - I went to get some food and Form & Kath posted in the meanwhile.)

Speaking a bit more about Shasta's post where he said Form and me should be modfired... Which is more suspicious: being mentioned by a dying wolf, or reacting heavily to it & taking pains to paint the other person in a bad light, just so no one would connect you with the dead wolf?

I don't know what to think of Nerwen. She's been kind of... elusive the whole game. Her reasons for suspecting me haven't been too impressive (might be just because I know I'm innocent). However, now she's suspicious of Form, too... so I'm probably not voting for her today.

Greenie is something of an enigma too. I've been thinking her innocent pretty much the whole game which is, albeit not unprecedented, unusual because normally I always quarrel with her at some point. She's looked pretty genuine in general - but she voted for EW, and suggested either Eomer or me is probably a wolf (wrong), and I've been disagreeing with her more and more lately.

Kath has been under my radar mostly. She hasn't really done anything to raise my hackles (except vote for EW), but Shasta had a subtle way of defending her. Yesterday she wanted to vote neither Eomer nor Form, saying she found them both innocent. I don't think she and Form are fellows (she could have just come up with a reason to vote for me).

My thoughts aren't much clearer, except that I could vote for Form or Greenie today. I'd prefer Form if there's a chance to lynch him, but even Greenie would be way better than me because there's at least a possibility she's a baddie.