Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Nerwen]

The Volo-waggon.

Nine minutes before DL, our ill-fated ranger had no votes whatever. (Then-vote count: Eomer, Agan, EW, wilwa and Form at one each.)

At 9:52 GMT, Wilwa votes Volo:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I definitely want to go for a quieter person, and he seems like one of those loud quiet people, ya know the ones that say a lot without actually saying much, and what he does say doesn't make a lot of sense.

9:54. Aganzir follows suit (Volo 2):

Originally Posted by Agan

As opposed to Nog & sally, there seems to be a chance to lynch him. I feel semi-bad doing this because he hasn't played in a long time, but if he's innocent, he can only blame himself for being so weird.

9:55. Pitchwife votes Eomer (Eomer 2):

Originally Posted by Pitch

He hasn't come back and delivered the more reasoned vote he promised us, and it looks like he's not going to, and he could well be a quiet wolf or Wight, and I'd rather be able to stop wondering what the heck he's up to.

(Next three posts have the same time stamp, but I give them in order.)
9:57. Inziladun votes Volo (Volo 3). No explanation given with this vote; earlier he had mentioned Volo "pinged his radar".

9:57. Volo reveals as the Ranger.

9:57. Shasta votes Volo (Volo 4).

Originally Posted by Shasta

Got to be...

++Volo, then.

Note: Had previously said little about Volo, other than that he "could vote for him". Vote-post is not marked as having crossed with Volo's reveal. An oversight? [EDIT: Yes, he did cross. Sorry.]

9:58. Nogrod (known innocent) votes Volo (Volo 5):

Originally Posted by Nog

Eomer makes more sense than Volo...

++ Volo

Uh... so why did he vote Volo, then? Vote crossed with reveal and previous two votes.

In the remaining two minutes, all five Volo-voters expressed dismay, Shasta (9:58) and Agan (10:10) suggesting the remaining players (Volo, Greenie, Eomer and Sally) all vote for Eomer. However, only Volo himself did so.

So quite a peculiar last-minute bandwaggon there. I don't say it was completely out of the blue– Volo had been talked about quite a bit on Days One and Two– but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.

I say "all" advisedly, however– the fact that one vote came from a known innocent is a useful reality check. Nonetheless, I think it likely that one or more villains had been waiting around until the last minute– it would make sense in a situation when no player had had more than one vote, so they couldn't even guess how the lynch would go. The wolves would of course have the most reason for doing this, especially if one of their own was among the earlier candidates.

EDIT:X'd with EW and Lottie.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's been a long night and is now four in the morning. All I know at the moment is that I'm not even going to bother responding to EW because if he's going to vote this early in the day for 'reasons' (such as they were) like that, he's no better than Morsul and thus not worth my time.

Nerwen, darling, you say my vote post wasn't marked as crossing with Volo's reveal, but it is. Please look again.

Shasta, signing off (with the beginnings of a royal hangover, and no that's not a reference to Nogrod, ask Mira).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hi all. Apologies for lack of participation yesterday but a family commitment lasted longer than I had anticipated. Came back home too late.

Not at all surprised to see I nearly got lynched; what is it about me that rubs people up the wrong way?

Back soon with some insights.

[Pitchwife]

Well, I suppose it would have been expecting too much to hope that the wolves would kill Ferny, so I have to agree that Barley's death was the second best thing that could have happened.
Losing our Ranger sucks, however... And in this light, I'll have to reconsider about some of the people I've thought innocent up to now (especially wilwa and Agan).

Speaking of Volo and wilwa:

Originally Posted by wilwa

Snap.

Well, I'm inclined to believe him, since his last statement is in fact correct.

We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.

TEW's vote was very hasty indeed... and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay? In this case, such an early vote would be understandable.
Anyway, I don't think his reason quite as bad as Lottie and Shasta make it look - I mean, if Shastawolf thought Nog could be the real Seer instead of BW masquerading as one, trying to frame him would make sense, as would the Night-kill after that didn't work. Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly; and it would also point quite strongly to both Shasta himself and Agan... but maybe they considered getting rid of the Seer worth the risk.

(x-ed with two Eomers)

(EDIT: make that three.)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nerwen, darling, you say my vote post wasn't marked as crossing with Volo's reveal, but it is. Please look again.

My apologies, my treasure. I was reading it with the "reply" window already opened, and I think in that mode those "reason for editing" comments don't appear.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.

Because he was protecting me that Night, if he was protecting me there's no way I can be the BW because the wolves got close enough to their kill to see who it was, if the Ranger was involved the narration would have said so.


I was really hoping to have more to comment on this morning. I need to go to Church now, and I will be there for quite a while. I should be back on for the last few hours and hopefully have a lot to say.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Just to say that I agree with Nerwen's interpretation here; chances are indeed good that one or even two wolves stuck around this late.

It doesn't have to be so from a statistical point of view: there's five unknowns among the late voters, versus eight among those who voted earlier or not at all. But a last-minute flurry like that tends to mean something. Unfortunately, it's not that easy to work out who in that group would be the villains (technically, at least, it could be all of them). So, the main questions for me are: were the wolves trying to save someone, and if so, who?

[Nerwen]

I'm going to have to vote in the next ten minutes. Just letting you all know.

[Nerwen]

Quiet, aren't you all?

Well–

++Agan again.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Because he was protecting me that Night, if he was protecting me there's no way I can be the BW because the wolves got close enough to their kill to see who it was, if the Ranger was involved the narration would have said so.

Hm, my thought was that since the wolves couldn't kill Barry anyway, it would have made no difference whether xe was protected or not, so even if he protected you (and there's no reason to doubt his last words on that) you could still have been that Night's target.
But yeah, I suppose the narration would have mentioned it if the Ranger had been somehow involved in that Night's happenings. Instead it explicitely said that the Ranger was nowhere around (which I had forgotten when I asked you that question) - so we can actually derive a small boon from Volo's death and remove you from the list of possible BW-candidates.

About the Shastawolf-Nogseer theory, I'm aware that it would have been a rather risky manœuver and not awfully likely. Still I understand how it could have seemed plausible to TEW if for some reason he didn't have time to think it through thoroughly. And from the two games I've played with TEW, it's usual for him to be this quiet until well into the game both as an innocent and as a wolf (not that I approve of this style, and I wouldn't mind getting rid of a submarine if we've got no better options).

(x-ed with Lottie)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Hm, my thought was that since the wolves couldn't kill Barry anyway, it would have made no difference whether xe was protected or not

Yes it would. If the ranger had stopped them, they would probably have gone after the BW again the next night because they didn't know they couldn't kill her (that would've been super ). And if we had just been told, "No kill, the wolves targeted the BW" even though the ranger had protected her, the wolves would've learned her identity. So at least I'm willing to believe wilwa isn't the BW.

And from the two games I've played with TEW, it's usual for him to be this quiet until well into the game both as an innocent and as a wolf (not that I approve of this style, and I wouldn't mind getting rid of a submarine if we've got no better options).

I've played with him a couple of times and he's always quiet - in this game he's actually probably posted more than usually. That's why I thought he was innocent on day 1; the previous time I played with him, he was a wolf and posted like two one-liners.

With no kill tomorrow night, I think we can afford to lynch another quiet player today. My first choice at the moment is sally, if for nothing else, for the sheer annoyance that I have over 12 times more posts than she.

[Loslote]

++Elfie

Because he's practically the definition of submarine - he doesn't post much, what he does is not very helpful, and his tone feels very showy (as in, he's doing everything for show and not because he really means it).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[U]So quite a peculiar last-minute bandwaggon there. I don't say it was completely out of the blue– Volo had been talked about quite a bit on Days One and Two– but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.

I say "all" advisedly, however– the fact that one vote came from a known innocent is a useful reality check. Nonetheless, I think it likely that one or more villains had been waiting around until the last minute– it would make sense in a situation when no player had had more than one vote, so they couldn't even guess how the lynch would go. The wolves would of course have the most reason for doing this, especially if one of their own was among the earlier candidates.

Just to say that I agree with Nerwen's interpretation here; chances are indeed good that one or even two wolves stuck around this late.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

#134 - rants against Shasta about how he's obviously not the seer.

#168 - "Stop speculating about who the seer is. Thank you." It's possible the wolves thought he was bluffing on these two points, rather than any convictions he had about guilt and innocence.

#169 - continues arguing with Aganzir

#174 - lessens his suspicion of Pitchwife

#228 - suspects Volo (ok) but also mentions he'd like to vote Sally.


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Don't really see anything Seerish about Nogrod. Odd kill by the wolves, if you ask me.