Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Pitchwife]

Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler, so Shasta's little theory about Nog as a supposed Seer-cum-Wight isn't that shaky as I first thought in this respect. However, Nog has a very good point that impersonating the Seer wouldn't be a brilliant survival strategy for Barry.
One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors?

On TEW's vote - I would very much like to see a lot more reasoning from him, but I've got a notion where he's coming from, i.e. Eomer's behaviour could remind him of the game when the three of us were packmates together, as it did me. Or he could be have got that idea from me and use it as an excuse. Post some more, man!
On Eomer himself, I'm withholding judgement for now till I see whether he's going to be more involved and making some sense.

Still don't think Agan looks blatantly evil in any way, like Nog for saying we should stop to speculate about the Seer and give the wolves ideas, like Volo better toDay, like wilwa a lot and don't at all get where all the votes against her were coming from; dislike Form's "maybe-I-can-be-bothered-maybe-not" attitude, have to look closer at everybody else.

Lottie, if you're still around: does or doesn't the change in the rules re Barry's endgame killing power affect your opinion that we shouldn't 'waste' a lynch on them in any way ?

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors?

1. Agan, Greenie, Wilwa, and yourself are the four people Nog mentioned that he found suspicious in that post I quoted, which is why I mentioned you in my theory.

2. It's already been pointed out that Aganwolf doesn't make sense in the context of this theory, which casts doubt on the rest of you being wolvish as well (in the context of this theory).

3. In the context of your theory, I've been going after Inzil all Day... why on earth would I pass up yet another chance to do so?

(Sidenote - I've tried typing up this post three times, and each time the internet has inexplicably closed... I think I beat it this time though! )

[Pitchwife]

Shasta:
1. Yes, I got that.
2. Actually, the unlikeliness that Agan is a wolf, based on your theory, doesn't mean the rest of us can't be. Just saying.
3. I had the impression that you were going more after Nog than after Zil, but yes, that makes sense, thanks.

(x-ed with wilwa and Agan)

EDIT: also x-ed with Shasta, I see.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Shasta:
1. Yes, I got that.
2. Actually, the unlikeliness that Agan is a wolf, based on your theory, doesn't mean the rest of us can't be. Just saying.
3. I had the impression that you were going more after Nog than after Zil, but yes, that makes sense, thanks.

(x-ed with wilwa and Agan)

Nog was who I began my assumptive theory on, and then Inzil started defending him (rather rabidly in my opinion). This combined with the point I made against Inzil (and Agan, actually) yesterDay means he's currently my top suspect.

[Nogrod]

Greenie called me a minute ago.

She can't get her laptop to connect to the internet and as she has not been able to read what has been discussed about for the last few hours she said she would not vote.


On another note, I'm almost done with my re-read and I think I have to adjust / add to some of my previous thoughts...

[Formendacil]

Well... I'm here and reading, and while I am utterly disinclined to do so, I feel guilty about not posting so... I'm posting. Pitch has unflatteringly, but dead-accurately described me as "maybe I can be bothered, maybe not," and to be 100% honest, I'm more wrapped up in my paper at the moment than in catching wolves.

I'd prefer to think that speaks for my innocence, given that I tend to be more invested in things as a wolf--and as the Days go on, and there's more to analyze--but that's just me. I believe I have been obliqued accused of being somewhat callous already... let me dig up the quote...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You're upset no-one got killed in the Night? Really?

Okay, maybe I exaggerate to say "callous," but it's a nice, hard-boiled accusation that would fit with Pitch's description of me. And, let's be clear: I am a bit callous here. We would have more to go on if we had a cold, dead wolf-kill. At Night 2 in the game, it's arguably more valuable for the village to lose an ordo and gain some concrete evidence than to go kill-less. Obviously, this will vary depending on the situation--for example, in the case of a Ranger-save, at least the Ranger knows who one innocent is, and can do some digging accordingly... but the only people in THIS situation who now know more than they did yesterDay are the BW and the Wolves... none of whom are on the village's side.

Heh--look at that! I'm all worked up now. A good, rousing reply in the next half hour or so might even spur me to more action.

Maybe.

[Nogrod]

I went through D1 to see what people were doing in the light of bantering (b), talking about game-mechanics (m), suspecting (s), making suspicions via banter (bs) defending (d), self-defending (sd), finding someone odd (o), explaining (e), being neutral (n)... (neutral suspicion and neutral defence are also marked - as (ns) and (nd) - you know that "maybe or maybe not"...)

NB. Producing tallies or saying "I'm around" are interpreted as mechanics-talk (m)

NB.2. A number after an s (suspect) or a d (defend) means how many people it concerns. The letter only means the person is suspecting/defending one person only.


My perspective on this was and is that the wolves would not like to spread suspicion around as that would lead to bad feelings and thus a heightened possibility of getting lynched while the goodies would try to find anything that is suspicious and bring that forwards. On the same logic, the wolves would like to rub people the right way while the ordo's should care less of it.

There are different conceptions of this to be sure.

Also remember that those symbols are for general interpretation: a d (for "defending someone" is just speaking good of someone, not everytime saying "s/hes not bad!") etc.


As an example:

Glirdy-cobbler: m m m/sd

That means he made two posts talking of the game.mechanics (m & m) and then one talking about the game mechanics and making a self-defence (m/sd).


So here's first whom I think were the least "productive" on D1 (D1, mind you... it's not the same toDay with all of these people)

Okay? (in brackets a comment on the vote that person made)


Eomer: b bs bs (too talkative)

Sally: b b m m m (meta: quite a wishy-washy vote)

Nerwen: m m b/m m (no vote?)

The Elf-Warrior: b b m m m (someone found a Freudian slip)

Form: b b d/s2 (meta: the odd choosing the more fun from more useful)

Kath: b/bd b m ns3 (wilwa not particularly guilt-ridden)


Okay more to come... just a short break to read - and to have a cigarette...

[Nogrod]

A quick interlude - looking at the clock I see I might not be able to produce the table in its entirety anyway.

After re-reading D1 I will not vote for Greenie (especially regarding the fact she can't be around toDay anymore).

Even if I still think Aganzir is the cobbler (sorry for my insistence, but I have my reasons), I would not like to vote her either toDay. She seems to be the powerhouse of suspecting people (after me, of course, or well, with me... ) so I think she's good to have around to notice things we might ignore. (Although I must say she was quick to defend a host of people as well, like the baddies wish to do to rub them the right way).


EDIT: X'd with A Gun

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nog was who I began my assumptive theory on, and then Inzil started defending him (rather rabidly in my opinion). This combined with the point I made against Inzil (and Agan, actually) yesterDay means he's currently my top suspect.

Once again, my purpose was not so much to "defend Nog", but to try to get you away from your tunnel vision. If you want to vote for Nog because you're convinced he's the BW, have at it.

Not sure who I'll vote for yet. I could possibly go for Eomer or Volo, but I'd like to see more of both first.

x/d with Volo himself