Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 10-29-2010, 12:25 PM

Back again then... so what should we do? Most of the Day has been spent and I'm not too sure it has been too fruitful.

Well, I have a suggestion.

I just checked some of the voting times from yesterDay and saw that Pitchie's vote for Glirdy was a crosspost with Kath's vote making wilwa lead the tally, so I'm a bit less suspicious of it now and am thinking I might have seeing ghosts there.

There were basically three wagons there yesterDay but without any added knowledge it's hard to say which were the malicious and which the innocent wagonings.

Anyway. Just looking at the discussion - and willing to prevent any more seer-speculation as to the target of last Night's kill, I'd suggest we took the other way and looked at the "no trace" kills ending up with the BW.

Why I think so is that...

a) The BW needs to stay low so the chances of getting her are probably better from among the quieter ones - but also, and even more importantly: I'd bet a lot we have at least one - if not two -wolves who take the quiet approach as well.

b) It seems a lot of people are just hanging around without doing much anything and avoiding any discussions while those more into playing the game suspect each others. And you all know how the lurking baddies are the most dangerous in the end.

c) With the misfired kill last Night we could "afford" to try one of the more ambiguos ones. We all know that later we just won't bring ourselves to do it - and the submarine-wolf has good chances of winning.

d) Making this kind of move some of the more quieter players would feel a need to talk up (which we'd dearly need) - or the mates of possible lynch candidates would need to step forwards (which would be great later)... So that would be good indeed.

Nogrod · 10-29-2010, 12:40 PM

A correction to the last post of mine... before the everlasting discussion begins once again.

I have used the word "quiet" - but I have also used the words "submarine", "no-trace" and "ambiguos".

I'm not suggesting we take a post count and start from the bottom, but looking at people who are careful enough not to disturb anything or anyone - and who wish to stay in the back not rubbing anyone the wrong way as to awaken their interest or bad will... Or if we had time to look at it more carefully... who only suspect the kinds of "safe targets" everyone (many enough) suspect and just parrot the suspicions of those others.

Kath · 10-29-2010, 12:52 PM

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine*

And I have to take back what I said yesterDay about wilwa's vote for Glirdan. I thought it was based on pretty much nothing other than feelings, but clearly she has much more of a gut-based grasp on Glirdan than I do!

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy ... except Agan ... and then we can finish that argument!

Only joking. I was about to make a proper post but I've just been informed that dinner is ready. So I'll be back in a bit to actually say something (hopefully) useful.

Nogrod · 10-29-2010, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine*

*waves back from his bright white hovercraft*

Just peeked in to see if anything's going on here... It is interesting to go through the thread D1 and to see how careful everyone is back there. Back with some results after I've gone through it.

Loslote · 10-29-2010, 01:20 PM

Right, well, I've got to vote and run, so...

++Elfie

Because he's been really quiet, and what he has posted has looked really off (such as his vote post toDay) and because I don't want to vote Pitchie without giving him a chance to post.

Good luck...

Pitchwife · 10-29-2010, 01:31 PM

Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler, so Shasta's little theory about Nog as a supposed Seer-cum-Wight isn't that shaky as I first thought in this respect. However, Nog has a very good point that impersonating the Seer wouldn't be a brilliant survival strategy for Barry.
One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors?

On TEW's vote - I would very much like to see a lot more reasoning from him, but I've got a notion where he's coming from, i.e. Eomer's behaviour could remind him of the game when the three of us were packmates together, as it did me. Or he could be have got that idea from me and use it as an excuse. Post some more, man!
On Eomer himself, I'm withholding judgement for now till I see whether he's going to be more involved and making some sense.

Still don't think Agan looks blatantly evil in any way, like Nog for saying we should stop to speculate about the Seer and give the wolves ideas, like Volo better toDay, like wilwa a lot and don't at all get where all the votes against her were coming from; dislike Form's "maybe-I-can-be-bothered-maybe-not" attitude, have to look closer at everybody else.

Lottie, if you're still around: does or doesn't the change in the rules re Barry's endgame killing power affect your opinion that we shouldn't 'waste' a lynch on them in any way ?

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Shasta

Shastanis Althreduin · 10-29-2010, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitch

One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors?

1. Agan, Greenie, Wilwa, and yourself are the four people Nog mentioned that he found suspicious in that post I quoted, which is why I mentioned you in my theory.

2. It's already been pointed out that Aganwolf doesn't make sense in the context of this theory, which casts doubt on the rest of you being wolvish as well (in the context of this theory).

3. In the context of your theory, I've been going after Inzil all Day... why on earth would I pass up yet another chance to do so?

(Sidenote - I've tried typing up this post three times, and each time the internet has inexplicably closed... I think I beat it this time though!

)

Pitchwife · 10-29-2010, 02:06 PM

Shasta:
1. Yes, I got that.
2. Actually, the unlikeliness that Agan is a wolf, based on your theory, doesn't mean the rest of us can't be. Just saying.
3. I had the impression that you were going more after Nog than after Zil, but yes, that makes sense, thanks.

(x-ed with wilwa and Agan)

EDIT: also x-ed with Shasta, I see.

Shastanis Althreduin · 10-29-2010, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Shasta:
1. Yes, I got that.
2. Actually, the unlikeliness that Agan is a wolf, based on your theory, doesn't mean the rest of us can't be. Just saying.
3. I had the impression that you were going more after Nog than after Zil, but yes, that makes sense, thanks.

(x-ed with wilwa and Agan)

Nog was who I began my assumptive theory on, and then Inzil started defending him (rather rabidly in my opinion). This combined with the point I made against Inzil (and Agan, actually) yesterDay means he's currently my top suspect.

10-29-2010, 12:25 PM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Back again then... so what should we do? Most of the Day has been spent and I'm not too sure it has been too fruitful. Well, I have a suggestion. I just checked some of the voting times from yesterDay and saw that Pitchie's vote for Glirdy was a crosspost with Kath's vote making wilwa lead the tally, so I'm a bit less suspicious of it now and am thinking I might have seeing ghosts there. There were basically three wagons there yesterDay but without any added knowledge it's hard to say which were the malicious and which the innocent wagonings. Anyway. Just looking at the discussion - and willing to prevent any more seer-speculation as to the target of last Night's kill, I'd suggest we took the other way and looked at the "no trace" kills ending up with the BW. Why I think so is that... a) The BW needs to stay low so the chances of getting her are probably better from among the quieter ones - but also, and even more importantly: I'd bet a lot we have at least one - if not two -wolves who take the quiet approach as well. b) It seems a lot of people are just hanging around without doing much anything and avoiding any discussions while those more into playing the game suspect each others. And you all know how the lurking baddies are the most dangerous in the end. c) With the misfired kill last Night we could "afford" to try one of the more ambiguos ones. We all know that later we just won't bring ourselves to do it - and the submarine-wolf has good chances of winning. d) Making this kind of move some of the more quieter players would feel a need to talk up (which we'd dearly need) - or the mates of possible lynch candidates would need to step forwards (which would be great later)... So that would be good indeed. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-29-2010, 12:40 PM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	A correction to the last post of mine... before the everlasting discussion begins once again. I have used the word "quiet" - but I have also used the words "submarine", "no-trace" and "ambiguos". I'm not suggesting we take a post count and start from the bottom, but looking at people who are careful enough not to disturb anything or anyone - and who wish to stay in the back not rubbing anyone the wrong way as to awaken their interest or bad will... Or if we had time to look at it more carefully... who only suspect the kinds of "safe targets" everyone (many enough) suspect and just parrot the suspicions of those others. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-29-2010, 12:52 PM	#3
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine And I have to take back what I said yesterDay about wilwa's vote for Glirdan. I thought it was based on pretty much nothing other than feelings, but clearly she has much more of a gut-based grasp on Glirdan than I do! Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy ... except Agan ... and then we can finish that argument! Only joking. I was about to make a proper post but I've just been informed that dinner is ready. So I'll be back in a bit to actually say something (hopefully) useful. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

10-29-2010, 01:20 PM	#5
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	Right, well, I've got to vote and run, so... ++Elfie Because he's been really quiet, and what he has posted has looked really off (such as his vote post toDay) and because I don't want to vote Pitchie without giving him a chance to post. Good luck... __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

10-29-2010, 01:31 PM	#6
Pitchwife Wight of the Old Forest Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall Posts: 3,329	Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler, so Shasta's little theory about Nog as a supposed Seer-cum-Wight isn't that shaky as I first thought in this respect. However, Nog has a very good point that impersonating the Seer wouldn't be a brilliant survival strategy for Barry. One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors? On TEW's vote - I would very much like to see a lot more reasoning from him, but I've got a notion where he's coming from, i.e. Eomer's behaviour could remind him of the game when the three of us were packmates together, as it did me. Or he could be have got that idea from me and use it as an excuse. Post some more, man! On Eomer himself, I'm withholding judgement for now till I see whether he's going to be more involved and making some sense. Still don't think Agan looks blatantly evil in any way, like Nog for saying we should stop to speculate about the Seer and give the wolves ideas, like Volo better toDay, like wilwa a lot and don't at all get where all the votes against her were coming from; dislike Form's "maybe-I-can-be-bothered-maybe-not" attitude, have to look closer at everybody else. Lottie, if you're still around: does or doesn't the change in the rules re Barry's endgame killing power affect your opinion that we shouldn't 'waste' a lynch on them in any way ? EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Shasta __________________ Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI

10-29-2010, 02:06 PM	#8
Pitchwife Wight of the Old Forest Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall Posts: 3,329	Shasta: 1. Yes, I got that. 2. Actually, the unlikeliness that Agan is a wolf, based on your theory, doesn't mean the rest of us can't be. Just saying. 3. I had the impression that you were going more after Nog than after Zil, but yes, that makes sense, thanks. (x-ed with wilwa and Agan) EDIT: also x-ed with Shasta, I see. __________________ Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI Last edited by Pitchwife; 10-29-2010 at 02:14 PM.