Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also: I think we should, for the most part, leave TB and TBW to their own devices. Yeah, lynching TBW would be great, but even better would be having TB kill him overNight, because then we have an extra lynch. There's no real way to ensure that we do this, but if we do have a suspicion that someone is TBW, let's ask TB to try to kill xem overNight, rather than lynching them.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

Regarding TBW, who I can't say I'm surprised to find the talk of the Day: yes, it's not that important to get him at this stage.

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind? Do we really think we could feel confident enough that a given player was displaying the first kind, rather than the second or third?

[The Elf-warrior]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind?

A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by EW

A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

In other words, you can't really tell... not enough to take the risk of leaving a suspicious person to his or her own devices.

Originally Posted by Shastanis

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

Precisely, my pearl. I'm sure we all remember how, in days of yore when a leave-the-cobbler-alone school of thought prevailed, it was common for wolves to pretend to be the cobbler.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Poor Fea. Mind you, at least now I can keep that wight wine I barrowed from her.

[Volo]

I have this vision [stricktly not of a Seerish kind] that if the world was a ball (yea, sounds silly), there'd be a slightly oversized hamster inside of it, rolling the ball from inside.

Uh, excuse me for that. I think it's just aftershock. Even though these are dark times, not often does one hear about something as freaky as that.

I do not mean this as a discouragement for discussion, but at such an early point it, it might be dangerous to speculate seriously whether a Wolf would act like xe was the BW. Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.
Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

Unfortunately I've done more than my share of giving unwanted advice for now as I'm late from an appointment. Back in several hours.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

I agree with the first part - the BW doesn't know anyone's role, and since s/he wants everyone dead, s/he has no motive to protect anybody - except maybe if s/he thought somebody is useful for his/her purposes. The BW's number one priority during Day phase is to avoid getting lynched, and especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers and less on the BW, actually, since I'm highly doubtful we can catch the BW anytime soon. I was contemplating the cobbler issue just now, trying to make out how serious a threat they present. In the most fearsome scenario, Ferny finds out the identity of one or more wolves, and can relate the information to the other cobbler - and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together. It's also possible that Ferny never gets lucky and we have two more or less blind cobblers who can be just as mistaken about the identity of the wolves as the rest of us.

[Kath]

*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Shall we go ahead and have it out now that suspected Cobblers should be lynched in the absence of lupine targets?

*likes this plan*

Originally Posted by Loslote

But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Sounds reasonable, but what do we really learn from it? If half the village said, "I think Lottie is the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil should try to drive her out tonight!" and you were still alive the following day, how can we tell Bombadil chose you and not someone else? We'd still keep arguing about whether you're the BW or not.

The BW can afford to be opportunistic and side with whomever she thinks benefits her the most. However, she can do much more damage to us than to the evil side - blocking the seer or the ranger is more serious for us than excluding a wolf from communication with her pack or stopping Ferny from spying is for them. Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

That's a good point. We can of course hope that the BW can spot impersonating attempts and, in her pride, stuns the person in question as a punishment.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts. I have no reason not to believe we can't catch the BW, but yes the wolves & cobblers should still be our priority.

Originally Posted by Greenie

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers

I like this game! Everyone wants to talk about the cobblers!

Originally Posted by Greenie

and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together.

That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.
But yes I agree with Greenie that the risk of getting a big baddie team is pretty high, and that's why we definitely shouldn't ignore the cobblers either. They are at their most dangerous when they have a way to find/contact the wolves.

As for Butterbur, the longer he stays alive the better. Of course his death is good for us even early in the game, but the wolves' missing a kill means much more later on when there are fewer people alive.